Is the relationship between the yield curve and SP500 dead?Looking at the TVC:US10Y - TVC:US03MY and the AMEX:SPY it seems that during a recession like this TVC:US10Y - TVC:US03MY should rise and AMEX:SPY should fall.
Will it be the case this time as well or is this time different?
Maybe the FED cannot allow TVC:US10Y to rise this time due to the amount of debt and will instead impose yield curve control like in Japan by printing money to buy TVC:US10 ?
10yryields
10 yrConclusion is:
Bond market seems to think this pump in the stock market is suspect. 10yr should rally up to .80 zone if investors were actually risk on.
I am just keeping an eye on DXY, 10yr, WTI at this point as they r all showing mixed conflicting signals.
DXY looks to have slightly more downside B4 reversing up (only question is how strong)
10 yr looks to be showing me that bond investors don't feel that this pump in stocks are worth the follow thru.
WTI RSI looks destroyed and could get a bounce but the shale stocks OAS WLL not showing any signs of buying pressure & also have lost bottom TL or are loosing the bottom TL. When the bounce comes to WTI if there is no volume or follow thru on the bounce I would expect that to be a scam.
I think that the markets have entered bear market territory late June into July & we are at early stages of the new trend. Unless WTIC can get the mentioned volume buyers I think we are better off watching for now.
10 yrGuys just so you r all aware. There will be no bear market, they have been canceled indefinitely.
Every-time any of you think about getting into bunker and hoarding food, gold bars or paying Peter Schiff Harry Dent or any of the fear mongers just look at my chart. In fact burn it into your brains. Stock always go up. Just buy buy buy. So easy
US 10YR Bond Yield - Wave 3 Has Commenced - Tracking Minor WavesAfter the breakout we had a retest of the descending trend-line and now I am expecting this to continue higher min wave iii.
Still looking for a break above 1.28.
I am tracking the Bond Yield because of the ramifications it will have on global interest rates.
I am expecting Interest Rate s to start making their way up to 20%+
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US 10-year yield could retest former low of 1.34 pctThere is a map of a consolidation for US 10-year yield.
The range is quite volatile between 1.50 and 2.00.
The wave B should complete with a drop to the 1.50 and then wave C could unfold up to 2.00.
After that the drop should resume to retest 1.34.
Gold Indication of Market Retrace :: 10YR Yield and S&P 500This post was encouraged because of the Economic Forum being held in Davos, Switzerland.
The last 3 years (roughly since mid 2017) contained talk around trade war. This has caused chaos within the markets. We have moved up and down 1000's of points with no specific direction.
It seems that September 2019 has shown the true colors of the market sediment. We can identify the percent returns of the 10YR yield, gold and S&P 500 from this date. Things have not been adding up and has been blurred by the DOW hitting new highs every other week, misleading investors.
Nobody is saying to liquidate but a rotation of wealth is underplay. I do believe that this is a rotation of wealth that is not our normal move into commodities/metals but potentially something larger.
Impeachment trial proceeds today during the start of the Economic Forum. Is this to sway attention towards Davos? We will never specifically know until everything pans out.
The chart speaks for itself with presenting the data.
I would like to hear anyone's thoughts, ideas and/or theories.
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Resumes HigherShort Term Elliott Wave structure in 10 Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests the pullback to 129.28 ended wave IV. The note has resumed higher in wave V. The internal subdivision of wave V is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 129.28, wave 1 ended at 131.19 and wave 2 ended at 130.26. Internal of wave 2.
The Note has resumed higher and broke above wave 1 at 131.19. This suggests the next leg higher in wave 3 has started. Near term, while pullback stays above 130.24 in the first degree, and more importantly above 129.28, expect the Notes to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Note, and expect buyers to appear once wave ((ii)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing.
*Please note that market opened up with a gap*
TNX study using Parabolic SAR & 40MA makes trading SPX look easyHigher highs not impossible in following months here's why. In this Parabolic SAR pattern match I'm interested in the months subsequent to a match when yield closes first time below average (marked by red verticals). It's been a good time to buy the months after, and for S&P to go on & make new highs. NOT ADVICE DYOR.
NOTE THE CORRECTION ON CHART BELOW where second A starts.
I HAD A FORECAST FOR THE LOW IN THE 10YR OF 2377 TODAY LOW IS 2377 WAS RISK ON AGAIN FOR SP AND IWM AND NOW BANKS