Get started

1d

ETH:USD in a similar position as Bitcoin was in early AprilETH:USD appears to be one leg behind BTC and in the process of forming it's own triangle. BTC short sellers were at an all time high on April 11 and a massive short squeeze followed (which I predicted on April 7th ) Ethereum short sellers have increased drastically over the last couple days and they are currently pulling back from all time high levels. Meanwhile the price of ETH hasn't flinched. This is a very bullish indicator for the short term price imo. Below is my full analysis: Yesterday’s analysis: Horizontal and trend support should provide bounce. Last bounce was too potent and we have fallen too far for this level of support to breakdown now. Patterns: Seems to be a leg behind the BTCUSD triangle. ETHUSDSHORTS: shot through the roof, all the way to ATH levels and the price went nowhere. Funding Rates: 0.0064% Horizontal support and resistance: S: $429 R: $445 EMA’s (12 & 26): bullish crossover on 1h, getting ready to cross on 2h. Bearish on the rest. MA crossovers: bearish FIB’s: 0.382 at $563 and 0.236 at $359 Candlestick analysis: Two bottom wicks vs tweezer top on daily. Weekly has bearish engulfing. 3d hammer Ichimoku Cloud: 3d: fully bearish with thin cloud at $732. 1d: Tenkan resistance divergence in Tenken and Kijun. TD Sequential: D: red 4 after incomplete setup. Resistance at $540. W: Red 8 3D: Red 1 after two candle correction to the upside (still has time to turn into a green 3) Visible Range: A lot of resistance from $450 - $500. If it gets through that at $660 looks likely (that is also where top of triangle would be) 50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): Bollinger Bands: Bottom band on 1d and 3d are apart of current support cluster Trendline: Hyperwave line fits price movement back to $2.50 ETH. Daily Trend: Bullish over last 16 hours. Fractals: Down: $407.99 Up: $497.15 On Balance Volume: daily h&s “As for me, I have no desire to carry the football from end zone to end zone. Just give me the territory between the 20 yard lines.” @PeterLBrandt Yard line of trend: If you say $359 is the bottom then we are inside the 20 for bearish positions. If you don’t say $359 is the bottom then would have to look at $54. Conclusion: The ETHUSDSHORTS and the hyperwave line are the two most important factors for me right now. Very surprised that amount of short sellers didn’t cause the price to pullback at all. There is going to be a short squeeze. Betting against the trend and the VRVP are the two biggest reasons to hesitate. I think the support combined with how far we have fallen combined with the amount of short sellers will be enough to get us past $500 and a target of $650 seems very likely to be reached.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Sawcruhteez
ETH:USD Long EntryYesterday’s analysis : Viewing ETH as one leg behind BTC and expecting a bounce retest the top. Watching ETH short sellers pull back from ATH levels. Seeing support from hyperwave and higher low. Patterns: Triangle, downtrend, higher low Horizontal support and resistance: R - $455 S - $445 and $434 ETHUSDSHORTS: Broke out of continuation triangle. Now back inside of it and breaking down support. Fall to 17,8846 seems likely. EMA’s (12 & 26): bullish crossover on 1h, 2h, and 3h. 4h is crossing right now. MA crossovers: Bullish crossover on 30 minute. Bearish everywhere else. FIB’s: 0.236 at $416 and .382 at $642 Candlestick analysis: Monthly doji Ichimoku Cloud: weekly cloud is acting as support. 3d c clamp, and fullish bearish. Tenkan resistance on daily. TD Sequential: Green 2 trading above a green 1 on the daily. Red 2 on 3d after a 2 candle correction. Weekly red 8. Green 1 on the monthly if we close above $388 Visible Range: Resistance from $450 - $494. 50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): 50: -12% 200: -54.22% Bollinger Bands: M: MA is at $375 W: MA is at $578 3d: MA at $522 1d: MA is currently apart of the resistance cluster at $450 Trendline: Hyperwave (green) and triangle (yellow) showing confluence Daily Trend: bullish over last 17 hours. Fractals: DOWN - $419 UP - $494 On Balance Volume: Bull div on daily. Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI - 44 Stoch - Crossing at 26 Conclusion: Longing at this price is attractive. Stop at $399 and target at $647 provides a 5:1 risk:reward ratio. I will be entering into this position in thirds. Green 2 above green 1 on the daily is the first indication to enter. Breaking through $455 is the second ientry and breaking the down trend line (red) will be the third and final entry. ETHUSDSHORTS pulling back from ATH levels is a great confirmation.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 129)Current Outlook 1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish 2 weeks - 12 months: bearish 1-2+ years: Super bullish Yesterday we went over the reasons why I changed my short term outlook to neutral/bullish for the next 1-2 weeks and today we will narrow in on how far this bounce can go. The last 4 hour candle challenged the resistance cluster at $6,724 and appears to have failed. Resistance came horizontally and from the 200 period MA . We briefly rallied through before getting shot back down below both points of resistance. The current candle is continuing the pullback and if it fails to support above $6,250 then this bounce will have likely run it’s course. While the 4 hour chart is looking fairly ugly, the higher time frames still look just fine. The rest of this post will be looking at the daily chart, which still shows plenty of room left to rally. The daily Ichimoku Cloud shows two key areas of resistance: the Kijun-sen at $7,845 and the bottom of the cloud at $8,045 The TD Sequential is showing a green 5 out of 9 with major resistance at $7,700 (green dotted). The Visible Range Volume Profile is showing resistance stacked up from here to $8,600 with $8,150 being the most significant. When multiple indicators are painting the same picture it is usually time to make a big bet. Building a short from $7,770 - $8,150 with stop loss at $8,650 looks like a really good position. Before than can happen we need to rally through $6,800 and $7,000 resistance. With how bearish this market has been that will be much easier said than done. If we create a new low below $6,250 then I will expect the drawdown to continue before we are able to retest the major areas of resistance outlined above. Thank you for reading and have a Happy Independence Day! Until next time drink responsibly, eat heartily, be social and smash the follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 128)Current Outlook 1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish 2 weeks - 12 months: bearish 1-2+ years: Super bullish Three days ago I changed my short term outlook from bearish to neutral and over the past couple days I have been leaning bullish for the very near term (1-2 weeks). That is due to the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart, breaking a Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart, breaking out of the down trend that started on 5/5, the Ichimoku Cloud being out of equilibrium and the bullish crossovers on the shorter term EMA’s . If that sounds overwhelming then take a deep breathe and let’s go through each indication step-by-step. Tweezer Bottom on the weekly chart is self-explanatory The Bill Williams Fractals are in yellow and you will notice that we haven’t broken above one since 5/5 when the downtrend started. We got very close on 6/7 but managed to stay slightly below. We did break a fractal on 6/30 when we traded above $6,358. That triggered the stop losses on my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and was my first major indication of a short term reversal. We had been steadily resisting the trend line from 5/5 and when that broke it served as confirmation of a short term reversal. When looking at the Ichimoku Cloud on the 3 day chart we can see a large C-Clamp which indicates how far out of equilibrium we currently are. That indicates short term oversold conditions and tells me that this bounce could go much higher than originally expected. The long, flat cloud at $10,400 indicates the furthest I would expect to bounce. If we do get to that price then I would be viewing it as a high probability short. We currently have a bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the following timeframes: 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, and 12h. As noted yesterday we continue to trade in between those EMA’s on the daily chart. If wanting to make a bullish entry waiting for those EMA's to crossover on the daily chart should be your best bet. Even with all of the short term bullish indicators it is possible to continue to drawdown at any moment. The daily chart is threatening a tweezer top along with a bearish spinning top and that could be all that is needed for the bears to start selling aggressively again. I am going to continue waiting on the sidelines for further development. I am still holding onto my ETH:BTC shorts from 0.07479 - 0.07844 and have set the stop loss at 0.0731. I am finding it very interesting that ETH:USD and ETH:BTC have not broken through the downtrend like Bitcoin has. This is a great time of year to get outside and enjoy the weather while waiting for the market to develop! Instead of biting my nails and watching the order book I will be playing golf and softball this evening. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez