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1day chart pattern beginning to take shape: Falling Wedge?We have finally reached a 31% correction here when we dipped into the upper 9k region...odds are good the 1hr/4hr chart h&s pattern is really a decoy at this point as a 1 day chart falling wedge is starting to take shape more and more as the candles progress and is starting to seem more valid. We have also filled the highest gap on the cme futures contracts on the last correction leaving only the gap at 8.5k left to be filled. There is a slight chance this gap won't be filled but we could also easily throw a daily candle bottom wick down to it briefly and then slingshot back up and still manage to keep the daily candle bodies above the bottom trendline of the 1day wedge. I'll be keeping a close eye on the 4hr and 6hr charts to see if we have a turn back to the downside on them before forming a higher high on those time frames...if we do form a lower high on the 4&6 hr charts then odds of dipping down to fill that gap are still very good however if we form a higher high on either of those 2 time frames probability will then favor that are big correction may be complete and the bullrun is likely to resume. Still no guarantee that this falling wedge is the main pattern here on this move but as of now it is the frontrunner.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
1
BTC maintainin bullishness; golden cross now on track for 4/11I appears that the stoch rsi is finding excellent support on the strong ascending 3 year old trendline keeping momentum bullish for now and has helped to increase the northern trajectory of the 1 day 50ma(in orange) to where we currently have a golden cross on track for as early as April 11th. Of course any significant selling from now until then will likely push that expected cross date back but price action currently appears to be in a bit of and ascending triangle/bull pennant on the one day chart...so if we were to break up from that price action within the next day or 2 we could expect a golden cross even sooner. So as of now things still look quite bullish all around...the only reason to even consider a downward move that invalidates the goldencross and instead results in a fakeout is that because everything looks so obviously bullish that the exact opposite could happen to trick a majority of traders. However beyond that, everything else seems to be indicating probability is currently favoring the bulls. So while I'm prepared for either outcome my bias leans bullish. If we are to break upward from the current flag set up the next consolidation or correction zone is right around 6k but ultimately I still believe we will get pretty close to the big wedge breakout target of 7229 maybe even as high as the resistance at 7.4k if enough fomo kicks in before any sort of significant correction happens.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
BTC forms 1day higher high 1st time since bearmarket beginning!!This is a huuuge sign that we may finally be seeing the trend reversal we've been so patiently waiting for and a definitive end to the bear market...This is the first higher high on the 1 day chart we've had since January 2018. We will be looking to follow this up with a 1 day chart higher low and then one more 1day higher high to complete the sequence and fully hand control back over to the bulls. if we do not form a higher low then we will almost certainly see a capitulation candle to follow...if we do then capitulation already happened in December! Very exciting either way you slice it!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
TRADING RANGING MARKETS WITH KELTNER BANDSTrading Ranging Markets with Keltner Channel It is said that the number one account killer in the market is a ranging market. Consolidations are very difficult to trade. However, you can take advantage of the difference in the way Keltner channel system can be used in combination with other technical indicators. The price won’t really touch the bands when it bounces between the upper and lower envelopes. When we’re in a ranging market, you’ll often see that the price will fail to touch the bands. The majority of the time the price will hug the middle band. This anomaly in price behavior requires us to use a secondary technical indicator to find profitable trades. Since the Forex market spends most of its time in consolidation, around 70% of the time, it’s mandatory to have a range trading strategy to survive in this market. For range trading we like to use Keltner Channel bands in combination with a 2-period RSI indicator. We tweaked the RSI settings so we can better identify tops and bottoms within a trading range. Note #3: For this Keltner trading strategy we use the 90-10 levels of overbought and oversold readings. Here are some rules that can guide you to make the best trading decisions: Keltner envelopes need to turn flat, to signal a consolidation. Price needs to break below the middle band. A buy order is triggered once the 2-period RSI goes below 10 indicating oversold conditions. The protective stop loss can be hidden on the other side of the Keltner band. For the long side take profit when the RSI reaches the 90 level.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
BTC Bullish Price Movement Confluence.I have spotted an amazing bullish price movement confluence for BTC. In the 1W Chart I spotted rejection towards the 2770 EUR Support Zone, and now the price made a Double Bottom pattern ( A strong price action reversal pattern. ) When I moved on to the Daily Chart I spotted this huge Head & Shoulders formation occurring with a Neckline ( Brake out line) @ 3600 EUR. ( Another strong price reversal pattern. ) Personally I am looking forward towards this formation, because the moving averages ( 50 MA = Yellow / 100 MA = Blue, ) have crossed as well. ( Just an indicator comfirmation. ) And in the 4H Chart I saw another Double Bottom, but it already did a Bullish Brake Out, and has started a Bullish Trend making its first Higher High and Higher Low. In conclusion, if BTC brakes above the 3600 EUR level, then we will see huge bullish moves. I have also highlighted the the analysis with colors on the chart ! Leave a like if you agree that BTC is going BULLS ! Comment your thoughts below !
Long
by ErnestsAdlers
symmetrical bullpennant breakout confirmed/higher high on 4hr We wanted to see the price action rise above this horizontal purple line to achieve a higher high on the 4hr chart and with the current 4hr breakout candle we have seen just that. A great sign for the bulls. However to securely reach a higher high on the chart that really matters(the 1 day chart). We're gonna need to get price action above this pink horizontal line just above that. The breakout target of this bullflag should have us reaching that higher high no problem plus we still have the price target to reach from the green falling wedge which is slightly above that too...that helps increase the odds even though falling wedge breakouts often don't reach their full breakout targets. There's also the large tan symmetrical triangle we have been above for quite some time now odds are good we will trigger its breakout and reach its breakout target. Only thing that could stop us from getting above that pink higher high on the 1 day chart horizontal line is the fact that we haven't had a higher high on the 1 day chart since the very beginning of the bear market and they always say the trend is your friend until the end. That's also why if we do trigger a breakout here above that higher high the trend may indeed finally be starting to reverse...we will of course want to see it followed up with a higher daily low and then one more consecutive daily higher high to be certain the trend is changing....or even a capitulation plummet right after this higher high and after that follow it up with a higher high/higher low/higher high sequence on the daily chart....either way to me it feels like the end of the bear market is truly near.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
Two 1day candle closes above symmetrical triangle & 1day 50ma. While I am seeing plenty of bullish signals here overall, the fact remains that on the 1 day chart the bulls have not yet achieved a higher high which is needed in order to fully take control away from the bears and put the reigns in the bulls hands. To put it in perspective, The las time we saw a higher high on the one day chart was early January of last year not this year(shortly after the end of the bull run). Achieving a higher high on the 1 day chart would be one of the biggest signs we could get that the bear market bottom could eventually be in, but in order to get one here, we will need to push price action above the lavender horizontal trendline here at 4117, If we bart back down or see a bearish leg down that is not part of consolidation or a small retracement then we will have once again only formed a lower high on the 1 day chart and the bears wills till have control of the market. So no matter how many back to back bullish patterns we have set up here, If we don't find a way to get above 4117 and achieve that 1 day chart higher high before that next breakdown, all of those potential bull pattern setups could just as easily become invalidated. Thats why as exillerating as all this sudden bullish exuberance feels, it's important to stay grounded, calm, collected, even keeled and copacetic without letting emotion steer our trading strategy. If we achieve that higher high I am very confident we can trigger many of the current bull patterns and also reach their breakout targets however if we bull flag right here...without a higher high there's still definitely a chance for a bart back down that is very wise to be prepared for. Let's hope that the breakout from the green wedge is confirmed and that the green wedge at least gets close enough to it's breakout target to reach the daily higher high. The fact that we have now closed 2 consecutive 1day candles above the top trendline of the symmetrical triangle pattern as well as 2 day candles above the 1 day buy sell line(aka 50ma ) are both very bullish developments we are also now well above the green falling wedge pattern. There is still a small chance the green falling wedge breakout could be a fakeout but we are far enough away rom it that as long as we can close 1 more 1 day candle above the symmetrical triangle pattern I am highly confident we can confirm the breakout of the green falling wedge...only issue with wedge breakouts is they don't always hit their full target and do so considerably less than standard triangle patterns. If we bull flag here I can definitely see an easy break upward as well and the bull flag price target breakout would see good confluence with the green falling wedges target...however because of the potential for a abrt still in play, no higher high yet, and a 1 day and 4hr stoch rsi that are both still heavily overextended. I may still optimistically side slightly with the bulls, but I will be leaving this idea neutral and be fully prepared for any barts and/or failed breakouts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
ETH on the verge of bullish greatness (1day goldencross+ih&s?) The recent 4hour golden cross has been very good for the ETHBTC pair and we can see it's now led to a bullish surge at just the right time to give a 1 day ethbtc golden cross a real possibility of happening...should it complete the cross and continue this bullish surge we can expect price action will almost certainly go high enough to trigger the current inverted head and shoulder pattern ethbtc finds itself in. looking at the date ranges here to see what kind of candles each of the 2 moving averages will be factoring out of their trajectory in the next few days there is a slight possibility that there could end up being a 1 day golden cross fakeout but it will likely take a big red candle 180 from here for a golden cross fakeout to happen. So there are a few bearish symptoms like the candles that are about to be factored out of each moving average and the fact that the 1 day stoch rsi is way over extended...but overall probability favors the bulls here.
Long
by DrDovetail
BTC finally surpasses 1day50ma…but finds a potential double top Finally breaking above the 1 day 50ma with authority was a great bullish sign up until the price action reached the double top point. As soon as price action retreated right at the double top point exactly it gave a great opportunity for the bears to shove the price action back downward. It may be a good risk reward zone her to exit my position and set a stop buy up just above the double top zone. If I were to wait for a little while for a bounce I would definitely wanna exit if I see the price action fail to close above the 1 day 50 ma for 2 consecutive day candles. Just as I wouldn't wanna get too excited about being above the 1 day 50ma until we have closed at least 2 1 day candles above it as well. This idea will remain neutral but I will be keeping a very close eye out for any sort of confluence that validates the potential double top that we have shown here on this chart on the frosted pink horizontal trend line. If we can form a higher high here above the frosted pink trendline I will definitely be siding more with the bulls. Thanks for reading! *not financial advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Yellow falling wedge breakout target reached. We have reached the breakout target for the yellow falling wedge. Price action actually went halfway between its target and the slightly larger red falling wedges target...finding resistance at a former strong horizontal teal trendline. What momentum we had from the breakout of the yellow and red falling wedges may now be gone as we can see the price action has been shoved back inside the biggest falling wedge (in green). Without any further momentum the probablity of us heading back downward towards the 1 week 20ma and the bottom trendline of the green falling wedge has greatly increased but I will leave this idea neutral for nw until I see whether or not we may form another bullish pattern here or not. Ultimately for now it appears as if the 1 day 50ma is going to maintain it's strong resistance.I will wait for 5 consecutive closes below the 4hr 50ma before I decide to exit my position. Just my strategy and not financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
as expected 4hr 50ma pushes out of wedge…1day/4hr 50ma showdown?The 4hr 50ma has me still temprarily hodling as it has hoisted priceaction up out of the falling wedge in a way that will very likely trigger the breakout. 4hr 50ma is now guarding the door back into the wedge....We will likely see a brakout triggered due to this which will result in at least a temporary bullbreak at least up to retst the 1 day 50ma again....as anticipated in the previous idea, it seems more and mroe likely that the 1 day 50ma and the 4hr 50ma are engaged in a showdown that will probably not be over until they are close enough together to squeeze the price action like a pair of chopsticks until it shoots one way or the other based on which timeframes 50ma is the most dominant. I don't know what they call it when a 50ma on one time frame crosses over another 50ma on a bigger timeframe...if it doesn't already have a name I'm gonna refer to it as octave hopping.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
BTC 4hr 50ma trying to lift price action out of fallingwedge It's come down to the strong support of the 4hr 50 ma vs. the strong resistance of the 1 day 50ma...who will win? We can see here on the 4hr chart that the 4hr 50ma is doing its best currently to hoist the price action up out of the falling wedge for a breakout but each and every time it tries to breakout the 1day charts 4hr 50ma gives it a strong rejection back down into the wedge. For now I'm bullish until both moving averages get slightly closer to eachother once price action is finally getting squeezed between the 2 like a pair of chopsticks I will be more neutral, however, btc may have gained enough bull momentum from the breakout of the wedge to help the 4hr 50ma muster the strength to overcome that resistance and actually solidify it as support for once. I've been consistently saying this whole time that we need to solidify the 1 day 50ma as support in order to sustain any further bullish upside. That remains true...so in the short term until we get back up to the 1 day 50ma I'm bullish then when we get there I'm neutral until I see it flip to solidified support...if it can do that then I'm definitely long. Mainly for the immediate future I think the 4hr 50ma is powerful enough to at least reach the 1 day 50ma before potentially solidifying as any kind of resistance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
Dash ripe for a rebound; Potential inverted head and shouldersDash is experience a nice big green daily candle today which has allowed price action to climb back above the 1 day 50ma(in orange) We can see we also seem to be completing the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulder pattern. I'm looking for a minor retrace here that retests the 1 day 50ma multiple times and keeps finding support there... if this occurs I will know that the 50ma(aka buy/sell line) has become solidified support thats when I will likely buy back in and then make my next decision at either the neckline of the inv h&s or if I see the price action somehow dip back below the 50ma and close 3 consecutive candles underneath it or solidify resistance. Judging by how the stochrsi on the daily is bottomed out and looks like it wants to start heading back upwards I'd say probability favors solidified support at the 50ma. Just my strategy of course if you are looking for financial advice you will have to go somewhere else as this is just my opinion. Thanks for reading!
Long
by DrDovetail