1daychart
BTCEUR: next target based on elliott wave and pitchforkNext short term target of BTCEUR before the final descend.
BTCEUR 1D chart: which scenario?Which scenario is most likely:
- the orange wave WXYXZ, where wave Z is 2/3 completed?
- the blue wave ABC, where smaller wave c is still to start?
Note the similarity of waves WXY with the sub-waves of Z is remarkable.
End of wave Z is plotted with the same proportions as waves WXY.
Link back above the rim of the cup&handle. Needs to close aboveIf we can get the current 1 day candle to close above the rimline and then have the followup 1 day candle to confirm the rim as solidified support we should finally see the breakout that I've been saying to keep an eye on in my ideas for at least 2-3 weeks now.
the dust has settled & only the 1 day bullflag remainsof the several potential patterns we've been watching over the past couple weeks, one by one has slkowly been eliminated from contention (most recently the adam and eve double bottom) and now we are left with only the standard 1 day bull flag. We just managed to confirm support on the 1 day 200ma after wicking below it which is clutch because flipping the 200ma back to solidified support at this point would likely mean the bull market will be put on hold indefinitely and we will swing back into a bear market so keeping support on the 200ma is key to saving the current bull market and having the current deathcross end up as a fakeout. If we do breakout the target for the bull flag breakout is the 11.6-11.7k area. I will leave this idea neutral and will await breakout or breakdown confirmation before I choose a side.
Why I still believe the Total2 chart h&s will be a fakeoutLook at the measured move drop target for the total2 1day chart head and shoulders pattern....no way is the entire alt market going down anywhere close to that far...that would involve all alt coins even top ones like ethereum, xrp, ltc, and bch going below zero. Of course h&s don have to hit 100% of their measured move target especially during a bull market but I think odds sill favor a fakeout...neutral for now though as we may see some more downside first.
BTCUSD 1D - Expected Bear Trap/Pinbar into 1D 200EMA/Monthly S1COINBASE:BTCUSD
Price on the 1D chart is now just below 20EMA and 55EMA, also at the top of the triangle and mid-point of the channel, this suggests a move lower. Expecting a pinbar or bear trap into the zone that is between the monthly S1, the 200EMA and the lower part of the channel between 9000 and 8700. This would then be followed to move to the upside.
Not playing this move, waiting for the pattern to play out and direction to be confirmed on the 1 day chart, will then look for the next setup.
The 1 day bullpennant has once again become the dominant patternWe can see now after a very weak "breakout" from the 4hr chart falling wedge that it is the 1 day chart bull pennant that is still very much the dominant chart pattern at the moment. The good news about that is the breakout target should be much much higher than the falling wedge's target would have been. The bad news is the pennant is a descending triangle which has a slight chance of being a reversal pattern. We can also see the 4hr 50 and 200mas are at risk of deathcrossing in the near future if we don't see a bullish breakout from the pennant in the next few days. This is a 1 day chart but I placed the trajectory of those 2 4hr MAs on here with a dotted orange and dotted blue line so you could still see it on the 1 day chart. My bias is still leaning bullish here but because of the potential impending deathcross I'm gonna leave this idea neutral. Hopefully the pennant will break up before wednesday and we won't have t worry about a deathcross on the 4hr.
1day candle closes inside bullpennant; 4hr goldencross .Bear trapped confirmed as the 1 day candle that dipped down ad filled the 10.1k gap last night bounced all the way back up to close inside the bull pennant as I was expecting. We also hav a 4hr golden cross due to occur in the next 4-8 hours which I think will instigate a bullish breakout from this pennant.
1day symmetrical bull pennant? Or possibly an invered h&s.green horizontal still maintaining great support. the 1 day 50ma(in orange) continues to grow more and more parallel with the ascending red neckline double reinforcing boths levels of support: price action could continue to grind slowly up the red ascending line and form an symmetrical bull pennant it should ultimately pick a direction by the time it reaches the green descending top trendline of the larger 3 day symmetrical triangle though. Still a chance for it to be an inv h&s pattern here as well...2 different inv h&s are currently in play(shown here in yellow and pink). It's possible for the current pattern to be a combo of both a bull pennant and an inv h&s or 1 or the other.
3daychart H&S pattern fakeout confirmed; must overcome 1day 50maVery positive sign here as we not only were able to crawl back inside the green symmetrical triangle pattern and prove the breakdown of that pattern to be a fakeout we also have managed to do the same with the big red ascending head and shoulders pattern before today's 1 day candle close; essentially confirming it's breakdown to have been a fakeout as well...patterns as massive as these 2 were can fake a lot of people out by closing multiple 1day candles below the trendlines...usually if you see this with no bearish momentum surge to go with it (and in this case bullish divergence was showing),then a fakeout is likely. In this case, it took about 6 1day candles from the time price action broke under the ascending red neckline of the h&s pattern to the time it climbed back above and confirmed the fakeout. The reason it was able to stay below the neckline so long without triggering the breakout is because the H&S pattern is actually most valid as a 3 day chart pattern instead of a 1 day chart pattern. The same appears to be true about the green symmetrical triangle pattern as well. Anyways currently we have just closed another 1 day candle just under the 1 day 50ma but more importantly above the ascending red neckline of the 3day head and shoulders pattern...We retested that neckline a few times before the close as well and was good to see it respond as solid support. As long as the red ascending trendline can maintain that support we should see price action flip the 1 day 50ma back to support as well. We also currently have a potential inverted h&s pattern that could be playing out here as well..if so we may see a slight pullback once we test the thin horizontal yellow line in order to complete a right shoulder...that is currently speculative but something to keep in mind.
The current 1 day chessboardShorterm looking pretty bearish in the near future we should resume bullishness however save for any unanticipated fakeouts. The biggest potential bear threat is the head and shoulders on this chart...were it to somehow actually trigger the measured move would be 5k....probability favors any "breakdown" of the h&s to be a fakeout so if price action dips under the neckline its important I uphold the utmost patience with it until confirmation of a breakdown is undeniable. I think it's ultimately a battle between the green symmetrical triangle and the red H&S. At this time I think I can say probability favors the bullish symmetrical triangle breakout over the head and shoulder breakdown. But fakeouts always have a chance if too many people think a pattern is gonna break a certain way we all know whales like to make the market do the opposite so I remain bearish shortterm and bullish medium /long term but am prepared to act should a fakeout present itself. The other patterns here that are still technically in play are the bear flags obviously but also the double top and the adam and eve double bottom. Neither have been invalidated yet surprisingly.
1 day symmetrical triangle looking more and more validAfter the recent bounce up from the bottom trendline of the green 1 day symmetrical triangle pattern we can now see that that pattern's probability has increased significantly. At the same time we also have a giant 1 day ascending H&S in play at the moment (its neckline indicated by the red ascending trendliine) I think this will probably be a fakeout as if it were to trigger that projected breakdown target of that H&S pattern would be 5,000. I don't see us diving as low as 5k unless of course our current bull market is already over and the elliot wave theorists are correct. Much smaller probability that that is the case but still worth considering. So I will be keeping a close eye on price action to ensure we don't close 3 or more consecutive 1 day candles below that ascending red trendline. If my assumption is correct and it is indeed a fakeout then I anticipate we could break up bullishly from the symmetrical triangle right around the area where the red ascending trendline converges with the green top trendline of the triangle. On our journey there however we could see candle wicks that reach down as low as 8k and maybe even 7.2k but ultimately as long as we dont close 3 or more consecutive 1 day candles below the ascending red H&S neckline we should break up bullishly from the triangle. For now because the H&S is still in play I must leave this idea neutral even though my bias is currently leaning more bullish.
XRPUSD Impending Death Cross. What to expect:We can see here on h 1 day chart that the 1 day deathcross is imminent and will likely occur tomorrow or the day after at the latest. While at this point it does look like the initial cross will happen, My gut feeling based on fundamental developments and adoption in xrp, is that even if this initial cross does occur it will be short lived and proven a deathcross fakeout which will be reversed shortly there after back into a golden cross. Let's recall hat the beginning of the 2015 bull market for bitcoin began in a similar fashion where we got the 1st shortlived golden cross that then briefly went back into a deathcross before having it's real sustainable golden cross shortly later. I anticipate thee same kind of behavior this time around for xrp...however initially once this fake deathcross occurs price action could follow with it and we could see our current bearish descending triangle trigger a final capitulation breakdown and that triangle has a measured move down exactly to our super strong bottom support at 24.5 cents which is a good confluence point to skyrocket right back up at...however if the next breakdown that occurs is treating the current pattern more as a bearish pennant than a descending triangle then we could see a capitulation candle reach as low as 19-20 cents before the skyrocket back up. Lastly we could instead of a breakdown see an inverted bart pattern play out here in which case if it has a bullish enough impulse it's still possible we may avoid a deathcross altogether and instead see both moving averages bounce up off eachother. For something like that to occur at this point would require a green candle and bullish volume bar much larger than any we have seen for a long long time. All these things considered I think my wisest move here is going to be just wait for the break and if we dip down buy the dip at 28, 24.5, and again at 19-20 cens if we manage to make it that low. If worst case scenario price were to go under 16 cents at that point I may have to consider that the deathcross may not be a fakeout after all but that seems highly highly unlikely and low probability.
Our penultimate bullpattern atm is this symmetrical trianglewe have currently closed a couple candles above it ...and if we were to breakout of it bullishly at this level the target is just under 17k...making this pattern our penultimate bullish pattern at the moment in a pile of like 5 extremely bullish patterns with their breakouts seemingly all coalescing at once. The ultimate bullish pattern is still the weekly chart cup and handle we are in the handle of that I posted an ida about in early July. It's breakout target is around 25k!! I'm feeling confident we will at least be retesting our previous all time high this year and very possibly even establishing a new one.
Let's talk about the massive 1 day bullflag.Looks like we will be potentially confirming a bullish breakout out of this flag very very soon... if we see a surge in bullish volume to confirm he bullish breakout target is 14070 or so.
zoomed out 1 day chart to appreciate the chart pattern symmetry.just wanted to zoom out to show the current chessboard in its entirety and also my idea of when we may finally breakout of the bigger (for now speculative) symmetrical triangle pattern. The Adam & eve double bottom is one of the most picturesque symmetrical perfect adam and eve double bottoms I've sen in awhile...was amazing to watch the price action follow the right side of the double bottom exactly as I had laid it out as well as watching price action follow the dotted blue breakout target line up like it was magnetized to it. I think we can do 1 of 2 things here at this point...either jus continue to skyrocket up all the way to 13.1k and trigger the double bottom immediately or get rejected around 12k down a slight bit by what is currently the "hypothetical" top trendline of the larger green symmetrical triangle we may potentially be in. If the triangle is indeed valid I anticipate we will see a rejection down from its top trendline to send us back down to retest the double bottom neckline and scare people into thinking thee double bottom was a fakeout. However I believe that if we do retest the double bottom neckline ultimately it will maintain support and trigger the double bottom breakout...unless we're gonna fill the 8.5 gap afterall(slim chance but still somehow a possibility)I think if it gets rejected at first and confirms the validity of the larger green symmetrical triangle that we will then retest double bottom neckline and wait to breakout until the point where the triangle's top trendline and the double bottom neckline converge as shown here on my chart...everything else has behaved with some stunning symmetry so far here so for it to break out where they converge would only add that much more perfect chart pattern symmetry and confluence. the right half of my eve bottom played out perfectly lets see if this one does as I anticipate as well.
xrpusd deathcross looming? I anticipate a fakeoutimpending deathcross on xrp. while also in a 1 day bear pennant that has a target of 20 cents...i anticipate this deathcross will be a fakeout and we may see a inverted bart here instead of a bear pennant....however there's also a chance it could break down and the 50ma could briefly cross under the 200ma but if so in that case it would just be capitulation and price would rocket back up bringing a golden cross with it to signal a deathcross fakeout if capitulation happens i don't see it dropping the whole target of the bearflag I have a feeling the 28.5 or the 24.5 horizontal trendline would probably catch it before then...still worth being prepared to buy any kind of dip like that though should it occur.:
4hr Diamond bottom price target hit with 100% precision!TA once again working is magic as the diamond bottom breakout on the 4hr chart has hit its target with 100% accuracy! Next to trigger should hopefully be the 1day charts falling wedge which should have a breakout target around 11.5k and then if we're lucky the double bottom will trigger which could take us back to 13k...those 2 patterns are still up in the air but the falling wedge has gained much more probability of triggering than it had thanks to this 4hr diamond bottom breakout.
4hr diamond bottom appears to be playing outNo guarantee it will follow through and I'd like to see a slight bit more volume to confirm but it appears we have a 4hr chart diamond bottom breakout. If so it should reach the breakout price target I have posted here and I expect then on this current pullback for the yellow horizontal trendline at 9646 to retest as and maintain support in which case we will then head back up towards the diamond bottoms breakout target. If this were to occur it greatly increases the chances that we will trigger a breakout from the 1 day falling wedge pattern as well which if triggered here has a breakout target of 11.5k. We still have a potential gap to fill at 8.5k and must continue to keep that in mind but that could happen before we breakout of the wedge, after, or possibly even not at all...so instead we must focus on the price action at hand and only worry about factoring that in if the charts show we are heading that way.
1 day double top vs. 1 day falling wedgeThe current battle playing out seems to be between the support of the falling wedge's top trendline(in purple) and the resistance of the double top's neckline(yellow horizontal). If we somehow were able to close the 1 day candle above this neckline that would be a good sign for the bulls. We would still need breakout confirmation from the wedge first of course, but if a wedge breakout were to trigger here the breakout target would be 11.5k. I think instead a breakout fakeout here is slightly more probable but will remain neutral until I see it react one way or the other. For now, I have the projected breakout occurring instead where the next horizontal support line down around 8.5k intersects with the top trendline of the wedge. We will see if my assumption is accurate but currently we have potential to rigger the breakout from our current zone. Wee can also see the 3 day golden cross trajectory has been moved up to the 1st of August. I think this cross will be sustained and eventually lead to an 87% increase in price but think there's a chance price action could fall down to those moving averages right before or during the initial cross to scare people and accumulate short fuel first. We could also just shoot upward without doing that at all but if I see a red candle the day of the cross I will neither be worried or surprised. May be a slow climb at first in August but I have a feeling come september/october we will be full on bull mode again. Just a gu instinct and as always not financial advice.
