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The current 1 day chessboardShorterm looking pretty bearish in the near future we should resume bullishness however save for any unanticipated fakeouts. The biggest potential bear threat is the head and shoulders on this chart...were it to somehow actually trigger the measured move would be 5k....probability favors any "breakdown" of the h&s to be a fakeout so if price action dips under the neckline its important I uphold the utmost patience with it until confirmation of a breakdown is undeniable. I think it's ultimately a battle between the green symmetrical triangle and the red H&S. At this time I think I can say probability favors the bullish symmetrical triangle breakout over the head and shoulder breakdown. But fakeouts always have a chance if too many people think a pattern is gonna break a certain way we all know whales like to make the market do the opposite so I remain bearish shortterm and bullish medium /long term but am prepared to act should a fakeout present itself. The other patterns here that are still technically in play are the bear flags obviously but also the double top and the adam and eve double bottom. Neither have been invalidated yet surprisingly.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
1 day symmetrical triangle looking more and more validAfter the recent bounce up from the bottom trendline of the green 1 day symmetrical triangle pattern we can now see that that pattern's probability has increased significantly. At the same time we also have a giant 1 day ascending H&S in play at the moment (its neckline indicated by the red ascending trendliine) I think this will probably be a fakeout as if it were to trigger that projected breakdown target of that H&S pattern would be 5,000. I don't see us diving as low as 5k unless of course our current bull market is already over and the elliot wave theorists are correct. Much smaller probability that that is the case but still worth considering. So I will be keeping a close eye on price action to ensure we don't close 3 or more consecutive 1 day candles below that ascending red trendline. If my assumption is correct and it is indeed a fakeout then I anticipate we could break up bullishly from the symmetrical triangle right around the area where the red ascending trendline converges with the green top trendline of the triangle. On our journey there however we could see candle wicks that reach down as low as 8k and maybe even 7.2k but ultimately as long as we dont close 3 or more consecutive 1 day candles below the ascending red H&S neckline we should break up bullishly from the triangle. For now because the H&S is still in play I must leave this idea neutral even though my bias is currently leaning more bullish.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
XRPUSD Impending Death Cross. What to expect:We can see here on h 1 day chart that the 1 day deathcross is imminent and will likely occur tomorrow or the day after at the latest. While at this point it does look like the initial cross will happen, My gut feeling based on fundamental developments and adoption in xrp, is that even if this initial cross does occur it will be short lived and proven a deathcross fakeout which will be reversed shortly there after back into a golden cross. Let's recall hat the beginning of the 2015 bull market for bitcoin began in a similar fashion where we got the 1st shortlived golden cross that then briefly went back into a deathcross before having it's real sustainable golden cross shortly later. I anticipate thee same kind of behavior this time around for xrp...however initially once this fake deathcross occurs price action could follow with it and we could see our current bearish descending triangle trigger a final capitulation breakdown and that triangle has a measured move down exactly to our super strong bottom support at 24.5 cents which is a good confluence point to skyrocket right back up at...however if the next breakdown that occurs is treating the current pattern more as a bearish pennant than a descending triangle then we could see a capitulation candle reach as low as 19-20 cents before the skyrocket back up. Lastly we could instead of a breakdown see an inverted bart pattern play out here in which case if it has a bullish enough impulse it's still possible we may avoid a deathcross altogether and instead see both moving averages bounce up off eachother. For something like that to occur at this point would require a green candle and bullish volume bar much larger than any we have seen for a long long time. All these things considered I think my wisest move here is going to be just wait for the break and if we dip down buy the dip at 28, 24.5, and again at 19-20 cens if we manage to make it that low. If worst case scenario price were to go under 16 cents at that point I may have to consider that the deathcross may not be a fakeout after all but that seems highly highly unlikely and low probability.
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by DrDovetail
1
Our penultimate bullpattern atm is this symmetrical trianglewe have currently closed a couple candles above it ...and if we were to breakout of it bullishly at this level the target is just under 17k...making this pattern our penultimate bullish pattern at the moment in a pile of like 5 extremely bullish patterns with their breakouts seemingly all coalescing at once. The ultimate bullish pattern is still the weekly chart cup and handle we are in the handle of that I posted an ida about in early July. It's breakout target is around 25k!! I'm feeling confident we will at least be retesting our previous all time high this year and very possibly even establishing a new one.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
zoomed out 1 day chart to appreciate the chart pattern symmetry.just wanted to zoom out to show the current chessboard in its entirety and also my idea of when we may finally breakout of the bigger (for now speculative) symmetrical triangle pattern. The Adam & eve double bottom is one of the most picturesque symmetrical perfect adam and eve double bottoms I've sen in awhile...was amazing to watch the price action follow the right side of the double bottom exactly as I had laid it out as well as watching price action follow the dotted blue breakout target line up like it was magnetized to it. I think we can do 1 of 2 things here at this point...either jus continue to skyrocket up all the way to 13.1k and trigger the double bottom immediately or get rejected around 12k down a slight bit by what is currently the "hypothetical" top trendline of the larger green symmetrical triangle we may potentially be in. If the triangle is indeed valid I anticipate we will see a rejection down from its top trendline to send us back down to retest the double bottom neckline and scare people into thinking thee double bottom was a fakeout. However I believe that if we do retest the double bottom neckline ultimately it will maintain support and trigger the double bottom breakout...unless we're gonna fill the 8.5 gap afterall(slim chance but still somehow a possibility)I think if it gets rejected at first and confirms the validity of the larger green symmetrical triangle that we will then retest double bottom neckline and wait to breakout until the point where the triangle's top trendline and the double bottom neckline converge as shown here on my chart...everything else has behaved with some stunning symmetry so far here so for it to break out where they converge would only add that much more perfect chart pattern symmetry and confluence. the right half of my eve bottom played out perfectly lets see if this one does as I anticipate as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
xrpusd deathcross looming? I anticipate a fakeoutimpending deathcross on xrp. while also in a 1 day bear pennant that has a target of 20 cents...i anticipate this deathcross will be a fakeout and we may see a inverted bart here instead of a bear pennant....however there's also a chance it could break down and the 50ma could briefly cross under the 200ma but if so in that case it would just be capitulation and price would rocket back up bringing a golden cross with it to signal a deathcross fakeout if capitulation happens i don't see it dropping the whole target of the bearflag I have a feeling the 28.5 or the 24.5 horizontal trendline would probably catch it before then...still worth being prepared to buy any kind of dip like that though should it occur.:
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by DrDovetail
1
4hr Diamond bottom price target hit with 100% precision!TA once again working is magic as the diamond bottom breakout on the 4hr chart has hit its target with 100% accuracy! Next to trigger should hopefully be the 1day charts falling wedge which should have a breakout target around 11.5k and then if we're lucky the double bottom will trigger which could take us back to 13k...those 2 patterns are still up in the air but the falling wedge has gained much more probability of triggering than it had thanks to this 4hr diamond bottom breakout.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
1
4hr diamond bottom appears to be playing outNo guarantee it will follow through and I'd like to see a slight bit more volume to confirm but it appears we have a 4hr chart diamond bottom breakout. If so it should reach the breakout price target I have posted here and I expect then on this current pullback for the yellow horizontal trendline at 9646 to retest as and maintain support in which case we will then head back up towards the diamond bottoms breakout target. If this were to occur it greatly increases the chances that we will trigger a breakout from the 1 day falling wedge pattern as well which if triggered here has a breakout target of 11.5k. We still have a potential gap to fill at 8.5k and must continue to keep that in mind but that could happen before we breakout of the wedge, after, or possibly even not at all...so instead we must focus on the price action at hand and only worry about factoring that in if the charts show we are heading that way.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
1
1 day double top vs. 1 day falling wedgeThe current battle playing out seems to be between the support of the falling wedge's top trendline(in purple) and the resistance of the double top's neckline(yellow horizontal). If we somehow were able to close the 1 day candle above this neckline that would be a good sign for the bulls. We would still need breakout confirmation from the wedge first of course, but if a wedge breakout were to trigger here the breakout target would be 11.5k. I think instead a breakout fakeout here is slightly more probable but will remain neutral until I see it react one way or the other. For now, I have the projected breakout occurring instead where the next horizontal support line down around 8.5k intersects with the top trendline of the wedge. We will see if my assumption is accurate but currently we have potential to rigger the breakout from our current zone. Wee can also see the 3 day golden cross trajectory has been moved up to the 1st of August. I think this cross will be sustained and eventually lead to an 87% increase in price but think there's a chance price action could fall down to those moving averages right before or during the initial cross to scare people and accumulate short fuel first. We could also just shoot upward without doing that at all but if I see a red candle the day of the cross I will neither be worried or surprised. May be a slow climb at first in August but I have a feeling come september/october we will be full on bull mode again. Just a gu instinct and as always not financial advice.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
1day chart pattern beginning to take shape: Falling Wedge?We have finally reached a 31% correction here when we dipped into the upper 9k region...odds are good the 1hr/4hr chart h&s pattern is really a decoy at this point as a 1 day chart falling wedge is starting to take shape more and more as the candles progress and is starting to seem more valid. We have also filled the highest gap on the cme futures contracts on the last correction leaving only the gap at 8.5k left to be filled. There is a slight chance this gap won't be filled but we could also easily throw a daily candle bottom wick down to it briefly and then slingshot back up and still manage to keep the daily candle bodies above the bottom trendline of the 1day wedge. I'll be keeping a close eye on the 4hr and 6hr charts to see if we have a turn back to the downside on them before forming a higher high on those time frames...if we do form a lower high on the 4&6 hr charts then odds of dipping down to fill that gap are still very good however if we form a higher high on either of those 2 time frames probability will then favor that are big correction may be complete and the bullrun is likely to resume. Still no guarantee that this falling wedge is the main pattern here on this move but as of now it is the frontrunner.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
1
Ethereum's path to $500 now firmly set in motion after c&h break Ethereum is now confirming a breakout of a weekly chart bullflag that should take it to at least $366 but more impressive is the cup and handle pattern on he 1 day chart it seems to be triggering at the same time which has a potential breakout target of $499. Now it's true cup and handle breakouts often fall slightly short of their projected target, but there's also several instances where price action far exceeds the projected target as well. Whatever happens I'm definitely long. I feel even if it corrects before $500 it will get there sooner rather than later.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by DrDovetail
A new longer rising wedge emerges on btcusdthere's still a chance this ascending purple line could be the bottom trendline of the rising wedge if so we will know by sunday at the latest. However current price action suggests the rising wedge is a lot longer than originally thought...long enough to carry us to 10788 before a breakdown...with an apex at the horizontal resistance line at 11694...if we were to breakdown around 10788 a 31% drop would send us to the blue horizontal at 7427 and a 41 % drop would take us back to the green horizontal at 6234. Probability right now favors the longer wedge but best to be prepared for either,
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
XRP back above $.046 resistance testing neckline of doublebottomWe can see xrp has once again broken through the horizontal resistance at 46 cents and is now testing the neckline of the 1 day double bottom pattern. Triggering a breakout of this double bottom pattern can give us a target of 59 cents. Reaching that target should help us rise above any of the other potential top trendlines of our descending triangle pattern( although I'm pretty sure we already broke out of that pattern in early May). All of this bullish convergence should see xrp reaching anywhere from 83 cents at the lowest to $2 on its initial bull run before its first significant correction...$1.33 still seems like a prime target to pay attention to in my eyes but we could easily go higher than that before the first big correction if everything aligns perfectly.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by DrDovetail
All Previous 1day 50ma bottoms on xrpbtc clue us in on next 1.a look at the time between each 1day 50ma bottoming out on xrpbtc 1day chart 2015-now....1st one took 238 days, next 238 days as well which formed three 50ma bottoms each not as deep as the next which resulted in the biggest breakout ever against btc.... then 286 days to the next bottom followed by 278 days and finally we are currently at 256 days and the 50ma is already starting to curl its trajectory upward slightly this will be the 3rd 50ma bottom in a row with the gap between it and and the blue 200ma getting smaller and smaller on all three just like the last time we had a massive breakout run against btc...should be another big one this time too if history continues to repeat.
Long
by DrDovetail
XRPUSD goldencross now official!As I said in my previous idea yesterday, we were 1 day away from the 1 day chart's goldencross on xrpusd and it has now officially crossed. The market tried to shake some weak hands with a solid bear trap last night but I know all those who understand the utility and value of xrp did nothing but hodl through it. Well done all he held as now the daily candle has flipped to green giving us 7 green daily candles in a row. This should just be the start of xrpusd's bullrun. There is still a chance that we could close a daily candle or 2 as red candles in the coming days, but our weekly candle is currently a big green bullish engulfing candle and as long as it stays that way by candle close probability very highly favors that we continue our direction upwards. Also on the weekly chart(not shown here) we have closed 2 consecutive weekly candles above the heavy resistance of the weekly 50ma. XRP is behaving exactly how btc did when it first closed a couple weekly candles above its weekly 50ma. It acted like it may dip back under for a second but then had its huge blastoff. If XRP behaves the same way we could see is huge breakout by the next weekly candle. XRPBTC should start to make strides and gains as well along with it.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by DrDovetail
potential inv head & shoulders could double ADA's current priceCardano has been taking a bullish upturn recently along with much of the alt market. . .but if it can trigger a breakout of the current inverted head and shoulders patern on it's 1 day chart, it still has the potential to double its current price. Current 1 day stochrsi is alreeady over extended so it may meet resistance for a few days or so at the neckline before finally breaking upward but considering its had its golden cross sustained probability is inf avor of a validated breakout before too long. target 17-18 cents.
BITTREX:ADAUSDLong
by DrDovetail
1