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09/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $59,829.20 Last weeks low: $52,551.34 Midpoint: $56,190.27 More sell-off last week in the crypto markets, very tough market conditions continue, hitting the $52,000 bullish OB+ again, the first time being exactly one month before. This area had held as support previously but it needs to hold this time around too, failing that $50,000 is the bottom of the daily downtrend channel. US CPI (Wednesday) & PPI (Thursday) this week, as with big news events we can potentially see volatility, this will be the last US CPI before rate cuts begin in the US, in Europe rate cuts are forecast to begin on Thursday, predicted to drop from 4.25% to 3.65% according to invesing.com, a 60bps cut. Another major news event this week is the Trump v Harris Presidential debate. I'm not expecting a whole lot of crypto talk in this debate, if I'm being completely honest I can't see it being an adult debate about political policy at all. However, I do think it will have an effect on the markets one way or another, obviously Trump is the better outcome for crypto if he stays true to his plans set out during the Bitcoin conference compared to the plans for the Harris administration to tax un-realized gains which is not very pro-investment. Again, I'm not holding my breath for any information on crypto but it is a major news event all the same. So in conclusion this week is full of news events that could create volatility, with BTC at its current level nearer the bottom of the daily trend. It does feel like we're maybe coming to an end of the chop with monetary policy pivot taking place soon.
by ProR35
02/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,481.00 Last weeks low: $57,205.43 Midpoint: $60,843.22 As September begins BTC finds itself at the $58,000 mark after selling off for the entire week last week. A historically bad Month for the crypto market is being paired with the first FED rate cut since March 2022. Conflicting elements with one bearish and one potentially bullish, it will be interesting to see if the final month of Q3 is a slow one or whether this is the month where BTC can break its daily downtrend and continue the Bullrun. I believe the 25bps vs 50bps rate cut is a huge point of contention, this week we have data releases for unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims that could all give clues to the FEDs decision on the 18th September. BTC finds itself below the 1D & 4H 200EMAs once again after falling short of the $65,ooo breakout. It seems there isn't really any rush to buy before we know of the FEDs decision, chopping and generally delivering max pain to the majority, unless you can be nimble on the LTFs nobody is winning here. This week the wait continues, we saw a glimpse of hope in the altcoin market recently but that has now been taken away again as BTC struggled. Finding those fundamentally sound projects ready for Q4 and beyond is still a top priority.
by ProR35
GBPJPY 1H Finally Going to Jump? Strategy Explanation GBPJPY has been consolidating for almost 2 weeks on 1H chart, plenty of traps have been set within this range, thus a lot of liquidity has been generated presumably. The question is: In the coming week, will GBPJPY finally break out the resistance level and activate all potential BUY limit orders to push the price up towards target zones further above (seen on the chart)? I think it is very likely that the current 1H purple demand zone is where the market will jump from, so a pretty simple BUY limit order can be set up around this zone(see the LONG Position widget): Entry: 191.638 Stop Loss: 191.030 Take Profit: 194.703 (potential 4H Supply Zone from 194.703 to 197.578) Risk Reward Ratio: 5.0 Cautions If the red "Caution level" at 190.900 is reached first, then the consolidation period of GBPJPY probably will be continuing and new market analysis will be made. I don't recommend risk too much on this trade since no upward confirmation signals has formed yet, but it is still a trade worth taking concerning the RRR is around 5. Higher quality BUY opportunities can be found after the 1H resistance level has been truly broken, if you don't feel safe on the current one. Remember: Trading is a game of probability and Risk Management is the key.
Long
by ForextWaveTrading
26/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,969.66 Last weeks low: $57,798.14 Midpoint: $61,383.90 Another week has passed in the crypto world and another week of Bitcoin recovery. Now hovering around $64,000 zone after a battle around the range Midpoint which was also the 4H 200EMA, BTC has flipped bullish on all major MA's and is looking to target the '21 ATH which has historically been the area where BTC has struggled in the last few months. With the US presidential election nearing and the FED rate cuts approaching even sooner, there are a lot of significant FA factors to consider. I think most people were under the impression that the ETF's and the halving would have more of an instant impact on price, we have seen a rally for the BTC ETF but that classic post halving boost has not yet panned out. It does have the feeling of all stars are aligning in the coming months to push through that ~$70k resistance and enter price discovery. Current sentiment is mostly pure boredom and that has lead to impulse moves in the past. For now I think the important places to look are in the altcoin space, having been decimated in the last few months now is a good time to seek out strong fundamental projects that are looking to lead the way for the next year or so. The altcoin season index is currently @ 22/100 indicating that the market is heavily Bitcoin dominated, suggesting that altcoins need to play catch-up and will outperform BTC by doing so.
by ProR35
SasanSeifi| Will Gold Continue to Correct? (1H)Hey there, By analysing the OANDA:XAUUSD chart in the short-term 1-hour timeframe, it is observed that the price has experienced corrections from the $2531 level and is now showing a positive reaction within the demand zone, currently trading around $2510. In this timeframe, the outlook leans towards a bearish trend, with a potential decline to corrective targets at $2494, $2490, $2482, and $2477. The potential trends are highlighted in the above chart, and there is a possibility of a price reversal from the $2514 to $2523 range. To better understand the next price movement, it’s essential to observe how the price reacts to these levels. If momentum weakens and the necessary confirmations are received from the specified levels, the corrective scenario will gain significance. Conversely, if the price encounters increased demand and successfully penetrates and stabilizes above the mentioned levels, the possibility of further growth and invalidation of the corrective scenario increases. (For the uptrend to continue and to reach higher targets, the $2531 resistance needs to be broken, and the price must stabilize above this level.) 💢 Please remember that this is just my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as investment advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and share opinions! Happy trading!✌😎 Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SasanSeifi
2
19/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $61,782.68 Last weeks low: $56,107.68 Midpoint: 58,945.18 Apologies for the late WEEKLY OUTLOOK, let's go over last weeks PA. A much tighter spread between weekly high and low last week compared to the week before. As BTC continues its recovery from the JPY carry trade dump we are back @ 4H 200EMA for the 5th time since losing support during the dump. For me this follows the same pattern as has been happening all year, flip the 4H 200EMA and aim for the '21 ATH @ $69,000. What happens at that level is nearly always disappointing but with rate cuts coming next month, maybe that will finally change. From the weekly range chart I do see the midpoint being important for the rest of the week, the recent 1h surge has come from the Midpoint level, flipped the 0.75 and now targeting range high which would put BTC over the 4H 200EMA point. The FOMC minutes takes place on Wednesday of this week and may provide some volatility, however the general consensus is that a rate hike is coming next month, the real question is will it be 25 Basis Points or 50bps. For this week it's more of the same in terms of being patient and trying not to get caught up in the chop. With the general sentiment being that the Bullrun will continue soon it's tricky to find the right entry at this stage if you haven't already. Patience is key.
by ProR35
1
12/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $62,761.55 Last weeks low: 49,017.27 Midpoint: $55,889.41 Quite the week in crypto just gone. From our first sub $50,000 BTC since mid February thanks to the JPY rate hike , a single day decline of -16% on Monday to then a strong recovery of +28%, a lot of volatility. The two peaks for the week coincide with the 4H 200EMA resistance level , which is a problem for the bulls as now that the final hours of Sunday trading dipped price below the 1D 200EMA , Bitcoin has a difficult week ahead to break back above those moving averages. A big news event week coming up could continue the high volatility we've seen in recent weeks: - US PPI 13th - US & UK CPI 14th - JPY & UK GDP 15th For this week I will be looking closely at the news events that could cause volatility and perhaps give a sign of trend direction going into the September FED rate cut .
by ProR35
3
05/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,078.54 Last weeks low: $57,217.14 Midpoint: $63,647.84 Have we just witnessed capitulation after a week long slide in BITCOIN and crypto as a wholes price? -30% in 7 days, or is this part of a larger sell-off? Here are some of my thoughts: - '21 ATH REJECTION - As I have said in many of my previous posts the '21 ATH @ $69,000 is a level that BTC just cannot seem to break. Since the beginning of this year BTC has printed an SFP (swing fail pattern) 6 TIMES! This outright refusal to break through clearly creates a problem and when LONGS have been exhausted trying to break through this impenetrable barrier, naturally price must retreat and start again from a point lower down, we are seeing that now. - CARRY TRADE - The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has RAISED RATES from 0-0.1% to now 0.15-0.25% after the conclusion of its 2 day monetary policy review. This has not only cratered the NIKKEI 225 -13.5% (at time of writing) but that has also has a domino effect on other traditional stocks & indices. It may not seem like a big rate hike but the underlying meaning of the hike is the problem. With it comes a hawkish approach for the foreseeable and that has the rest of the world worried because it shuts the door to FREE CREDIT. When the Yen is free to borrow which it has been up until now it weakens JPY again USD, that free YEN is borrowed using assets as collateral and then used to invest into Real-Estate for example and yields more, keep the profit and pay back the JPY using USD which is gaining in strength, a two fold win. However, now that JPY isn't free to borrow and could potentially get more expensive to borrow in the future it means those people no longer have access to free credit and also the JPY is getting stronger against the USD. A two fold loss from what was a certain win. That has caused the panic and sell-off. - GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE - There is no denying the world is in a state of worry geopolitically. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up 17% since July 1st and I don't think that is a coincidence when the the wider market, especially big tech is falling of a cliff. When war is a possibility/ inevitability, risk assets struggle, this is only natural as investors play it safe and try to protect what they have. A growing selling pressure and a lack of buyers will cause a market to retreat every time. This week I'm looking for BTC to form a new base for us to bounce from, with rate cuts coming from September onwards and a Weekly Bullish Orderblock filled this is a possible long term entry position in the making. Need to see some strength returning first but as the saying goes, buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy. TL;DR - '21 ATH SFP for the 6TH time this year, exhausted rally. - JPY rate hike closing the door on carry trades, huge selling pressure. - Geopolitical uncertainty, risk-off environment.
by ProR35
29/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $69,404.60 Last weeks low: $63,458.72 Midpoint: $66,431.66 As July comes to an end a lot has happened in the last month, from starting the month @ $53,000 to now just above '21 ATH. Last week we saw a lot of volatility caused by some news events, namely the ETH ETF & Bitcoin Conference. The structure of the price range differs to the previous two weeks were price started low and finished high. In this instance we have a midweek low after ETHEREUM ETF went live and then price ramped back up in anticipation for the BTC conference with Donald Trump making a speech as well as Michael Saylor and RFK jr, all of which were extremely bullish on the crypto space and pledged to improve Americas relationship with the industry and increase holdings of BTC. Now price is currently positioned above the $69,000 '21 ATH which has been one of the most important S/R levels over the last year, acting as the catalyst for major moves off both upside and down. I would like to see the daily close out above this level with conviction, general sentiment is to get nervous at this level as in the past it has failed to hold. CT is silent even though we're within touching distance of ATH and that purely comes from repetitive failure to hold this line. This week I'm keeping an eye on the inflows and outflows of both BTC & ETH ETFs, the $69,000 S/R level and strength returning to the altcoin market which has continued to take a back seat in recent weeks/ months. Blackrock have expressed their want to increase exposure to RWAs and so real world assets on the Ethereum chain could be a good place to start.
by ProR35
GBPUSD Medium cycleGBPUSD is in a bullish channel. its have 2 hunts to this channel lines. i think normal time for third hunt is at next 22 bars in 1.29840 price. now if its hunt sooner its show that the power of bearish trend increasing. and if its hunt later show that the bullish trend power is increasing. why do i thinks so ? because i compare that whit its last hunt. also the DXY had strong bearish trend and its resting now. i think the bearish trend can continuo. Its just my personal comment please don't trade whit this. I have no responsibility for your money.
Long
by Arco-ir
10/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71,199.84 Last weeks low: $67,611.61 Midpoint: $69,801.22 Chop, chop and some more chop for Bitcoin. A steady a climb for BTC last week from range lows made at the beginning of the week with a high just shy of $72K before freefalling to the 0.25 line which coincides with the '21 ATH level l, and a bounce back up to the midpoint which is currently LTF resistance. The altcoin market is looking in pretty rough shape in comparison to BTC, many have halved since their highs and are now retesting their 1D 200EMA's for support. In a Bullrun you'd expect these levels to hold and can offer great Long entries, I'd like to see BTC show strength above the '21 ATH because if we see another drop below alts will follow and once below the 1D 200EMA we could be in trouble for a while. For this week I am looking at potential alt longs at the 1D 200EMA levels but being very aware of Bitcoins price. No trade if BTC is below SWB:69K as that would be yet another failed ATH run, and would look to target lower down in the chop range.
by ProR35
03/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,741.40 Last weeks low: $68.714.79 Midpoint: $66,688.18 As we enter the Midway point in the calendar year BTC finds itself continuing to battle its '21 ATH. For many weeks now we've seen this key S/R level flipping from support to resistance and vice versa, will we finally see a breakout move above this week? Although for the last few weeks the general attention has been focused on the ETH ETF, now that that is over and had a bullish turnout the market is looking for BTC to lead the way. Price is now above the 4H 200EMA, Post-halving supply shock effecting tokenomics positively in terms of supply and demand and currently breaking down the previous cycles high. Given all that in mind I think the patient will be rewarded as I think when BTC does get a clear run, most likely when Greyscale stop selling at a rate that causes outflows to overcome inflows. Top buyers sell pressure is relieved as holders who were underwater all bear market sell their positions and give way to buyers with high conviction. Then we will see BTC target $80K, only a matter of time. This week I am focusing on BTC strength and signs of a breakout, I would say that once BTC breaks out, ETH will break above $4K and target ATH @ $4.8K. Things to look out for is any US news that could effect the markets; law making, Veto's etc. Hopefully you had a good first half of 2024 and good luck for the second half!!
by ProR35
20/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67701.33 Last weeks low: $64227.62 Midpoint: $60753.92 We have lift off... maybe? Bitcoin has spent the last 2 months chopping between the low $70K's and high $50K's after a strong rally. However, it looks like strength has returned at least for now in BTC after the CPI print of Wednesday last week. This volatility influx moved BTC back above the 4H 200EMA which has been the all important level in determining the Mid - Low time frame trend. Now that price is back above I think the general sentiment would be to be more risk on, especially in terms of leverage than we've seen in the last few weeks. Not necessarily saying this is an ideal entry, just I think more confidence is returning to Bitcoin. The altcoin market on the other hand with exception to a few top performers is lagging behind BTC, and that can be seen by the Bitcoin dominance at 56% currently and targeting local highs. For altcoins to begin reclaiming some of their loses we'd need BTC to get back above the '21 high of $69K. Also, we have the ETH ETF approval deadline for VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares on the 23rd &24th May respectively. Coinbase believes the odds of approval are closer to 30-40% so it would be a shock if these ETF's were approved by the SEC, however, if they were to be approved this could help kickstart the altcoin market again. For this week it's about seeing if BTC can capitalise on last weeks progress and target the '21 ATH. The purple trendline needs to be respected on the way up otherwise I think we'll retest the MIDPOINT or even the 0.25 area.
by ProR35
13/05/24 Weekly outlookAre you getting bored yet? Another week of chop has elapsed, and in short there is not much else to say on the surface. BTC took out it's previous weeks high and then retraced roughly half of the progress made, filling the FVG left behind by the local move up and creating our range low for this week. As it so often does, the range perfectly shows the levels of which price action moves throughout the week. We had $1.1B worth of options expire on May 10th last week which gave BTC it's volatility on Friday creating the weeks low and creating an FVG. I believe it makers sense for price to work towards filling that FVG and retesting the MIDPOINT resistance. If price rejects then next stop is range low, if price accepts higher then range high is the target, simple as that on LTF. In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of $43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling $32M . Resulting in a net outflow pf $11M The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA , until then spot and hold .
by ProR35
06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58 Last weeks low: $56,573.01 Midpoint: $60,657.29 As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now. From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally. We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows. For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.
by ProR35
22/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $66857.53 Last weeks low: $63230.46 Midpoint: $59603.38 The 4th Bitcoin Halving is now complete , the block reward has been cut from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC . The reduction in reward creates a supply shock that changes the the tokenomics drastically. We now have a situation were miners revenue effectively halves overnight , despite this miners would have had ample time to plan for this as the halving is every 4 years consistently and would have been able to plan accordingly. Last week we saw Bitcoins price drop back to sub 60k after losing the 4H 200EMA support level . After a double bottom price rose back towards the underside of the 4H 200EMA and now retesting as resistance. This week will be key for the direction of BTC in the short term. We know post-halving we see new highs within a year, often very quickly after the event, but the short term price direction is very difficult to predict at this time. Institutional buyers are here, we have big players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy buying up large amounts of BTC to hold long term, the Hong Kong ETF begins on 30th April and could potentially bring Billions of dollars in additional in-flows. Grayscale has been the lead seller in the last few months as they sell large amounts of their GBTC, currently $16.4B in total . A large reason for the sell off is the high fees on Grayscales ETF compared to the newer low fee options presented by BlackRock, WisdomTree, Valkyrie etf all at 0.25%. Grayscale have now tackled this problem by creating a "Mini-GBTC" with 0.15% fees making it the lowest on the market . It will be interesting to see if this stops the consistent outflows. If it does and yet more demand enters the market in Asia coupled with a stunted supply of new Bitcoins we are looking at a good environment for price growth. This week I will be keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts around the 4H 200EMA, If we hover at this area with now real emphasis on direction then this is a traders environment where money can be made both ways before resuming the overall HTF uptrend. Alts took a huge hit last week and have given some good entry opportunities, naturally a strong BTC is needed to see progress in the alt market, with a strong reclaim of the 4H 200EMA alts can return to being risk on with a tight stop loss in my opinion.
by ProR35
01/04/24 Weekly outlook (Q2)Last weeks high: $71771.20 Last weeks low: $69088.87 Midpoint: $66406.55 Q2 BEGINS! BTC saw a 91.35% increase from yearly open and closed out Q1 at ~71K . A very strong first quarter on the lead up to The Halving now less than 20 days away we have only a few more weeks to get set for the event which historically brings new highs after. Now that we have ended the month of March and begun Q2 , we can see that the bulls really pushed for a strong monthly close above the '21 ATH level of 69K, a very important S/R level and now we have closed above on the monthly it's confirmed as new support. Almost instantly after the monthly close price did drop back down to the previous weeks Midpoint of the range and the important support level. I do think we range for a while and build a base in the lead up to the Halving, any dip is probably a good entry point for long a long term hold as historically new highs come soon after the halving. For now I think we'll see a continuation of select alts having double digit days with BTC & ETH staying relatively flat . In my opinion we're at the low cap/memecoin stage of the cycle and just waiting for the next big BTC rally to start the whole cycle again and have money flow back into BTC. Next rally should target 86K (1.272 FIB extension) and with supply halving and ETF backing I do believe it's achievable this year perhaps even this quarter.
by ProR35
2
25/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68975.9 Last weeks low: $64863.9 Midpoint: $60752.0 Our first major pullback took place last week as BTC saw a weekly low of $60,752 , and notably the weekly high didn't manage to top the previous cycles ATH at 69K which does indicate a HTF Bearish Swing Fail Pattern. The 4H 200EMA providing support on multiple occasions and keeping the HTF trend bullish. Both of these price action movements creating a bit of a stalemate/ chop. Looking closely to see which pattern gets broken first. So far any pullback we have seen has been more of a leverage flush than a sustained pullback, V-shaped recoveries as entities such as BlackRock completely absorb any sell pressure. However, we did see a drop in IBIT inflows that were unable to absorb Greyscales GBTC outflows , leading to negative volume and a drop in price. I think if we could see an S/R flip of the previous ATH it would give the greenlight to the rest of the market to continue moving up. Historically a pre-halving dump is normal, a ~20% correction is normal. If we don't flip that S/R level a sweep of the $58K area is not off the table but the closer we get to the halving the less likely that is to happen in my opinion. The altcoin market pulled back with BTC with a few exceptions as usual. Narrative plays like RWA enjoying gains as BlackRock prepare for their $10TRILLION Tokenisation vision starting by depositing $100m USDC on the ETHEREUM blockchain. . This week focusing on ETH based RWA projects for longer term holds could be a good plan to try and front run BlackRock buying. BITCOIN is obviously the main focus as it needs to continue its bullish trend so that the rest of the market can continue to rally. 25 Days to The Halving This weeks focus: - BTC S/R Flip - ETH RWA's
by ProR35
2