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03/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64271.5 Last weeks low: $57579.4 Midpoint: $50887.4 BITCOIN ATH IS IN SIGHT! A crazy final week of February closing the monthly candle with a record single candle gain in the history of Bitcoin! A +52.8% gain in a single month ($22,134.20) . This price action has lead us to a situation that has never been seen before in this markets relatively short history... Never has BTC broken its previous ATH before The Halving , yet the we are currently -5% away from ATH with approximately 49 days to The Halving . With new institutional buyers involved in this cycle it is clear the schedule for what we have become used to has been sped up significantly and we can now expect for the ATH to be broken even before the mining reward gets cut in half! Another metric that can be used to gauge our progress in the cycle is general sentiment and retail interest . So far the news cycle is quiet about crypto and the standard retail investors that general give a top signal are nowhere to be seen currently. This is all very bullish for the space and indicated room to grow. For this week I will be planning how to preserve my capital and manage my greed accordingly. As it stands the FEAR AND GREED INDEX is 86 which should be taken into account. I do think once BTC breaks past its previous ATH the news will start to cover more stories about BITCOIN which could also bring retail investors to the table, maybe they forgot about their spot positions they bought at the peak of the last cycle and would look to cash out at break even and therefor increase selling pressure? That may not happen but planning for it helps in case it is a sell the news event. My general thoughts for this Bullrun remain the same a buy and hold strategy will outperform the day trader but -30% flushes are perfectly normal in these conditions so it's always important have some cash in reserve to add to narrative plays.
by ProR35
26/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $52994.8 Last weeks low: $51757.7 Midpoint: $50520.6 Another big week in the world of crypto! As predicted BTC has been ranging consistently between the local high of 53k and the support of 50k . Since Bitcoin has been moving sideways we have seen profits rotating into ETH sending it above 3K and the broader altcoin market. We see this regularly in market cycles as capital trickles down the market cap leader board. Now it seems the ETH/BTC pair is looking more bullish we could potentially see further chop for BTC as it builds a base for the next leg and allow alts to play catch up for a short time. This week I believe there may be some buying opportunities as some of the indicators reset and the key moving averages help to support price, the 4H 200EMA being the key one for altcoins. Bitcoin remains bullish over the 48K level, under that and I think we see a flush/ deleveraging event going into the halving which is less than 2 months away now. We have seen a few times recently just how quickly the market panics when BTC moves even a few % in the negative direction. Exercising caution and protecting funds are so important as the Bullrun is just beginning.
by ProR35
19/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $42846.80 Last weeks low: $50286.30 Midpoint: $47725.79 BITCOIN has finally done it! BTC has flipped the all important 49K S/R level and has had a week of confirmation meaning 49K is now major support and a new trading zone has been entered. Last week we saw BTC continue the rally that started the week previously with a near linear move up towards the resistance level, now the chart shows at the 0.25 level price broke through that level and had a successful retest followed by a further push up towards just shy of 53K . This price action initially took capital and interest away from the altcoin market, however now that we have some sideways chop as BTC establishes a base for which it can push towards the halving and ATH, some of those profits have now cycled through to ETH and the altcoin market with some double digit returns across the board. All this price action is very bullish from a TA standpoint along with the FA side of things with BlackRock now owning MUN:10B + in BTC for their ETF the sell pressure has definitely dropped and with the halving fast approaching the supply will drop even more. For this week I would not be surprised if we see a revisit of the midpoint ~$50K area and continue ranging for a little bit while altcoins rally and play catch up. In particular the AI coins have shown particular strength and I do think this category of altcoins will outperform a large portion of the market. I would begin to get worried if we see BTC fall back below the 49k range although the longer we stay at the current level I think the less likely that is to happen.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
When the price stagnates and then breaks a lateral trend...It's been a while since I published an analysis with a 1h timeframe. Well, the price of btc created a lateral trend (from 30 sessions upwards), establishing two levels in which it moved for a week, then the breaking of one of the levels brought a resumption of the rise and an increase in directionality associated with volatility, with a break visible to all. In this case the upper level being the rectangle is a purely continuation figure, it acted as a cap for a while, now a scenario where the price goes to test the resistance area between 46k and 49k usd, becomes more likely the one to follow before determining whether the correction is finished. It has already given a sign of this by making a high breaking this lateral trend, because it also exceeded the previous movement which lasted 12 days in terms of time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Melupira89
22/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43584.42 Last weeks low: $41935.80 Midpoint: $40287.19 With the BTC sell off underway post ETF approval, we start the week hovering just under the previous weeks low of 41.5k. This area is the key S/R zone in my opinion and for now it looks like BTC bulls are struggling to reclaim that level. I previously stated in the last weeks outlook that there is a strong magnet pulling price towards the 33K area FVG . To reach that area and react positively off the level would be very bullish and should begin the next leg up towards 50K+ going into the run up for THE HALVING . For now BTC bleeding is causing the altcoin market to do the same, however as normal altcoins do tend to bleed against BTC as well for example SOL is now sub $90 and falling, good opportunities will present themselves in the coming days/weeks for the next leg up in the Bullrun but patience is key. In conclusion the ETF news was a sell the news event, Blackrock and others are scooping up large sums of BTC at discounted rates as market makers push the prices lower. That in turn drags altcoin prices down with it and now it seems we're heading towards the 30K's . My final target would be ~33K before looking towards becoming bullish again. I will rethink that plan if BTC was able to reclaim 41.5K with strength. Short term bearish long term bullish
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
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