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Bitcoin's Next Halving - A Technical Analysis PerspectiveAs we approach the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 19, 2024, it's essential for traders and investors to assess the potential price movements based on technical analysis. In this analysis, Bitcoin reached its previous all-time high (ATH) of November 8, 2021, while considering the formation of a Cup & Handle pattern and a retracement to the Fibonacci 0.618 level before the halving event. Previous ATH Resistance: Bitcoin's journey to its previous ATH on November 8, 2021, marked a significant milestone. The price action during this period resulted in a strong resistance level that traders should closely monitor. Psychological factors may come into play as Bitcoin attempts to breach this resistance, potentially leading to increased volatility. Cup & Handle Formation: A Cup & Handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern often seen as a signal of a potential upward trend. In the context of Bitcoin's price chart leading up to the next halving, the market may exhibit a Cup & Handle formation. Traders should be vigilant for the cup formation, followed by a brief consolidation forming the handle. The breakout from the handle could signal a strong bullish momentum. Fibonacci Retracement to 0.618 Level: Technical analysts commonly use Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential support or resistance zones. In this scenario, a retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, approximately around the $50,000 mark or potentially lower, could serve as a critical support level. This retracement could provide a buying opportunity for traders looking to enter the market before the halving event. Halving Impact: Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with significant price movements. The reduction in block rewards tends to create scarcity, potentially driving up demand and prices. As we approach the April 19, 2024, halving, it's crucial to factor in this fundamental aspect when making trading decisions. Conclusion: In summary, the technical analysis suggests a potential scenario where Bitcoin retraces to the Fibonacci 0.618 level, forming a Cup & Handle pattern before the April 19, 2024, halving. Traders should remain vigilant at the previous ATH resistance level and be prepared for increased volatility. The halving event itself may act as a catalyst for a bullish trend, but market participants should carefully monitor key technical levels and consider risk management strategies in their trading decisions. As always, it's essential to adapt to changing market conditions and reassess the analysis based on real-time price action. Note: Not Financial Advice
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by sailortrades
TSLA's triangle just broke—can it reclaim or will it slide?NASDAQ:TSLA reported quarterly earnings after hours. The initial reaction has been negative but that can sometimes change during the volatility that continues during the conference call and later the next few days. This post will not delve into the fundamentals as a some prior posts have done. After all, markets are presumably efficient and discount all new information very rapidly, and surely algorithimic programs have already processed the report and its ramifications for the future. So the following charts will look at technical analysis alone. From a technical perspective, TSLA had been in a large triangle that appears to be breaking over the last couple of weeks. This is true on both logarithmically scaled charts and linear / arithmetic charts. The log-scaled chart shows a somewhat bigger break so far than the linear scaled chart. Supplementary Chart A shows a logarithmically scaled chart of this triangle. Supplementary Chart A (Log) Supplementary Chart B (Linear) TSLA has been in an uptrend since its bear-market lows in early January 2023. But as prior posts have discussed, the next larger degree of trend is surely sideways, going back to the all-time highs. A simple box drawn around price on a monthly or weekly chart since even somewhat before the all-time highs shows this sideways range. Next, consider that since the all-time high was reached, TSLA retraced to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and failed on its first attempt at cracking that level as shown in the next chart. Supplementary Chart C (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) Furthermore, TSLA has struggled mightily at its all-time high anchored VWAP. At least six major breakout attempts above this VWAP have failed since TSLA formed its all-time high. See Supplemental Chart D below, showing the all-time-high VWAP in magenta. So have the failures to succeed in a break above this VWAP exhausted themselves so that next one or two will surely succeed as the bulls might want to argue? Or have the failures only reinforced the bears' case? Until price can recover this $234 area, it's tough to be bullish on TSLA. Supplementary Chart D More recent anchored VWAPs also make the bull case difficult to see for the time being. These are shown in the next supplementary chart. The key levels from these VWAPs are $241.72 and $214.62. Supplementary Chart E (Other Major VWAPs) And price hasn't been able to poke a head above the YTD anchored VWAP either the last 3 weeks as shown in Supplementary Chart F. Supplementary Chart F (YTD VWAP) Finally, consider that the major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current uptrend from January 2023 lies at $177.25. This is an all-important support level for bulls who think TSLA is merely consolidating its uptrend from January 2023 lows. Supplementary Chart G (Another 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the January 2023 lows to July 2023 highs) These technicals don't present a trade idea or attempt to reinforce a bear or bull case for anyone who is so positioned. But it does attempt to read the technical landscape as it now stands, without any sort of bullish or bearish bias from fundamentals or macro environment. The overall case isn't bullish until key levels can be recovered. Until then, lows might be tested if price can't quickly find its way back into the consolidative safety of the triangle shown. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
9
NZDJPY: Bullish Divergence and Fib Retracement Signal Potential📈 Overview: NZDJPY, amid a bullish trend, shows a bullish divergence near its higher low. The current retracement from the 0.618 Fibonacci level suggests potential upside. 📊 Technical Analysis: Bullish divergence and retracement from 0.618 indicate a favorable risk-reward ratio for potential long positions. 📉 Trade Strategy: Traders may consider long positions, with entry near the current retracement level, anticipating an upward move. 🛑 Risk Management: Mitigate risks with stop-loss orders to protect capital in case of unexpected price movements. 📈 Conclusion: NZDJPY offers a concise opportunity for further upside, supported by bullish signals. Monitor for confirmation and adjust positions accordingly.
Long
by miansarimhameed
GBPUSD: “618" & "LIBRA" Setup on “Momentum” Entry (34/100)System has identified a “618” fibonacci pullback setup as well as a "LIBRA" or inverse head and shoulders with a potential “momentum” shift market entry during the second hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window. RISK: 1R TARGET: 2R for 618 setup, 4R for LIBRA ***DISCLAIMER*** This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using all GBP pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
Long
by USA_Capital_Funds
GBPNZD: “618” Setup on “Limit” Buy Entry (34/100)System has identified a “618” Fibonacci retracement setup and executed a buy “limit” entry during the second hour of the LONDON 12-Candle Window. RISK: 1R TARGET: 4R ***DISCLAIMER*** This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in LONDON and only using certain pairs. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
Long
by USA_Capital_Funds
UJ: “618” Setup on “Limit” Entry (29/100)System has identified a “618” Fibonacci retracement setup and executed a sell “limit” shift entry during the pre-market ASIA 12-Candle Window. RISK: 1R TARGET: 4R ***DISCLAIMER*** This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in ASIA and only using USD/JPY pair. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
Short
by USA_Capital_Funds
UJ: “618” Fib Retracement Setup on “Limit” Entry (27/100)System has identified a “618” playbook setup and executed buy “limit” market entry during the second hour of the ASIA 12-Candle Window. RISK: 1R TARGET: 4R ***DISCLAIMER*** This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in ASIA and only using USD/JPY pair. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
Long
by USA_Capital_Funds
UJ: “618” fib Setup on “Limit” Entry (22/100)System has identified a “618” Fibonacci retracement setup and executed a buy “limit” entry during the second hour of the ASIA 12-Candle Window. RISK: 1R TARGET: 4R ***DISCLAIMER*** This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in ASIA and only using USD/JPY pair. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
Long
by USA_Capital_Funds
UJ: “618” Setup on “Limit” Entry (19/100)System has identified a “618” Fibonacci pullback setup and a “limit” entry was executed during the second hour of the ASIA 12-Candle Window. RISK: 1R TARGET: 4R ***DISCLAIMER*** This is a new system based strategy being live tested for the purpose of gathering data. The system generates between 3-6 signals per session upon detecting a qualifying setup and entry signal. Currently being tested only in ASIA and only using USD/JPY pair. The win rate and expectancy are unknown. Please do not take these trades.
Long
by USA_Capital_Funds
1
BTC to 41K Before Cool OffBTC On the Weekly time Frame. BTC has been in a strong Elliot 5 Wave Impulse Move since the start of 2023. Analyzing the Fibonacci Retracement of the first pull back (wave 2) which occurred in March of this year, we can see an almost perfect touch at the .618 level before wave 3 ensued. In Keeping with the laws of Fibonacci, Wave 3 was the most violent (so far) and ended at the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension - roughly 31KUSD per Bitcoin. Again further validating that this is a text book Elliot 5 Wave Impulse move, wave 3 was followed by a slow, drawn out Wave 4 which consolidated in a falling wedge formation and respected the top of Wave 1 before making a less violent but still respectable move back to 31K (our most recent push up). Now standing in the face of Cryptos greatest resistance level to ever exist, I am expecting further consolidation before eventually breaking 31K and stopping at our next and final Fibonacci Extension, the 2.618; Completing the 5th wave of this Macro Move. Once the target is achieved I anticipate that we will move into an ABC correction and Retrace back to Roughly 25K. Why 25K? When analyzing the structure as one move, a Fibonacci Retracement Tool can be pulled from the Bear Market Bottom, to the 2.618 Level. The .618 Retracement for this entire move lands Bitcoin roughly at 25KUSD per Bitcoin. This technical analysis is to price scale but not time scale. I cannot predict when 41K will be achieved and when 25K will be achieved. If this move plays out this will be the perfect set up as the first leg up into the new Bull Market. the pull back to 25K will be the last time to buy before new ATHs (with the exception of a black swan event of course). I have been tracking this move since March, since my related Ideas.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AlexSpicer94
2