ETH - Bullish Unless...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 As per my last analysis, attached on the chart, ETH rejected the $2000 support zone and surged by over 25%.
What's next?
As long as the bulls hold, a movement towards the $3000 - $3100 resistance zone would be expected.
📉 In parallel, if the last 4H low at $2600 is broken downward, a bearish movement towards the $2100 would be possible where we will be looking for new short-term longs.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
2000
ETH - Last Couple of Candles of 2023Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
Based on my recent ETH analysis, we anticipated a rejection from the blue circle zone , as it is the intersection of the lower bound of the blue channel and the 2,150 support.
Now, what's next?
📈 For the bulls to remain in control and take over from a medium-term perspective again, we need an H4 candle close above the last major high marked in orange at 2,270.
In this case, a movement to the 2,500 round number and upper red trendline would be expected.
📉 Meanwhile , ETH would be stuck inside a range, but the bulls will remain in control as long as the 2,100 level holds.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
ETH - The Bulls Are Still Strong - For Now ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
ETH is still stuck inside a big range and it is currently hovering around the lower bound / support zone around 1810
📈 For the bulls to take over from a medium-term perspective, we need an H4 momentum candle close above the last major high in gray around 1890
📉 In parallel, if the green support zone is broken downward, expect further bearish movement till the 1730 demand zone.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
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ETH - The Bulls Are Still Strong Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
According to my previous analysis of ETH, the bulls maintained control as we successfully surpassed the previous significant high marked in red.
📈 The next resistance level to overcome would be around 2000, which is crucial for the bulls to assert their dominance.
📉 ETH will continue to exhibit an overall bullish trend unless the bears succeed in breaching the lower orange trendline.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
2000 vs 2020 Tech crashesQCOM was the hottest stock of 1999, and had a similar fall from grace as the biggest tech names of the time, if not faster. Some of the top tech stocks by market cap were: MSFT, CSCO, INTC & IBM
I believe in a 2-3 year bear market, but we are pretty close to 2000 levels in a lot of major Tech stocks already. A lot of people wanna sell it to the floor as fast as possible, but that's not what the bear market really looks like. It's the white box.
ETH - Stuck Inside A Range 📦Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
ETH has been stuck inside a range between 1750 support and 2000 resistance.
Lately, ETH rejected the 2000 and now trading lower.
As per my trading style, here is my plan:
📉 1- Wait for ETH to approach the 1750 support to look buy setups
📈 2- Wait for ETH to break above 2000 (daily candle) then look for buy setups on its retest
📌 Meanwhile , as long as ETH is sitting midway it would be a no trade zone for me. So I will be waiting patiently!
Remember: Good things come to those who wait!
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH - Critical Zone 🔑Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last two ETH analysis (attached on the chart), we were looking for trend-following buy setups around 1750
📈 ETH traded higher and broke above the 2000 resistance. Now What?
We are currently in a bearish correction phase inside the rising wedge in orange.
🏹 For the bulls to take over again , for another impulse movement upward, we need a break back above 2000
UNLESS ETH breaks below the lower orange trendline and gray zone, then we will expect an over-extended bearish movement till the 1750 support again.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH - Long-Term View 👀Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
ETH has been overall bullish trading inside the rising broadening wedge pattern just like BTC.
However, it is currently sitting around a strong rejection zone:
📌 Here is why the 2000 is a strong rejection:
1- Round number
2- Daily Resistance
3- Previous Major High
📈 For the bulls to remain in control, we need a daily candle close above 2000.
In this case, a movement till the upper bound of the wedge pattern would be expected, which would be around the weekly supply zone 2250
📌 Meanwhile, the 2000 is acting as a resistance, and if we break below the orange channel downward, the bears would take over for a correction.
In this case, a movement till our previous support 1750 would be expected.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Gold -> Wait For The Break!Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Gold just recently retested a quite strong previous weekly resistance area exactly at $2000 and already rejected this zone towards the downside.
You can also see that as we are speaking Gold is retesting previous weekly resistance which is now turned support exactly at $1945, overall market structure is also still bullish so I am now just waiting for a clear break above the $2000 resistance and then I do expect more continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that Gold is currently stuck in between the $2000 resistance and the $1945 support area - as long as the market remains between those two zones there is no clear trading setup so I am now just waiting for a clear break above the $2000 resistance followed by a retest before I will then probably enter a long to capitalize on the next impulse towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Russell 2000 potential for bullish rise to overlap resistanceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for RUT is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.
Looking for a buy entry at 1893.8737, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1722.0208, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 2134.4378, where the overlap resistance is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Russell 2000 potential for rise towards overlap resistanceLooking at the D1 chart, my overall bias for RUT is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1889.4148, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and overlap support is. Stop loss will be at 1722.0208, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 2134.1183, where the overlap resistance is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Russell Futures ( RTY1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Russell Futures ( RTY1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 2033.0
Pivot: 1909.8
Support: 1832.2
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for RTY1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to retest the pivot at 1909.8, where the overlap support is before heading towards the resistance at 2033.0, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price could head back down to break the pivot at 1909.8, where the overlap support is, before heading towards the support at 1832.2, where the previous swing low and 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
GOLD - Trend-Following Buy Setup!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
🗒 GOLD has been overall bullish trading inside the blue rising broadening wedge pattern.
Moreover, the 1900.0 level is a strong support and round number.
📌 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support zone and lower trendline in blue acting as a non-horizontal support.
📉 As per my trading style:
As GOLD approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Russell 2000 Potential for Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for RUT is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Look for a potential buy entry at 1789.4537, where the overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1722.0208, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 1911.6949, where the overlap resistance is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPJPY LONG 2000 PIP LONGHello traders,
Today we are looking at GBPJPY .
We can see we are at the end of wave 4 of our Elliot wave which is a corrective wave. We are now looking to catch wave 5 which will be a impulsive wave where we are expecting strong bullishness movement to our take profit / SELL zone.
We will be looking to enter at our -0.618 fibonacci level from the A wave which is where I am anticipating a rejection. We also can see a trendline approach and structure level touch.
Confluences
-0.618 fibonacci from wave A is where we are expecting wave C to end / start our wave 5
Trendline approach
Structure level touch
Stop Loss
We will be placing out stop loss below our trendline. Stop loss will be moved to break even once we see 30 pips profit.
Profit Taking
We will be taking profit multiple times along the way ( 30 pips, 60 pips, 100 pips, 200 pips, 500 pips, 750 pips, 1000 pips
Our final take profit location is ideally the 175 level.
Be sure to check out our other trade ideas below plus our education content below!
Nasdaq’s past is a timely reminder.The Nasdaq 100 Index has had an incredible run, rewarding long-term investors with massive outperformance over the past 20 years. But as traders we want to position ourselves to benefit from short-term events as well.
Look closer at the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, you’ll find a similar setup to today, just 22 years prior, where the Nasdaq was trading incredibly rich compared to the S&P 500 and the Russell.
We can also look at the ratio of the Nasdaq vs its peers to understand on a relative basis, how expensive or cheap the index is trading. Currently, both ratios still trade close to the 2000s high, a critical level where the ratio topped out and then crashed in a dramatic fashion thereafter. From a timing perspective, the Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio took roughly 30 months to bottom out while the Nasdaq 100/Russell 2000 ratio took 27 months. With the current decline only 9 months young, we expect more pain for Nasdaq for quite a while longer.
On a shorter timeframe, we see the 2 ratios near or at critical levels. The Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio seems to have completed a double top, broken the neckline, and then come back to retest the neckline before being clearly rejected. This allows us to be comfortably bearish on the ratio.
As for the Nasdaq 100/Russell 2000, the ratio is currently trading close to a major support level, the break of which will likely send it tumbling down.
To set up this trade, we could:
- Short 1 Nasdaq 100 Futures contract (NQZ2 Index)
- Long 1 S&P 500 Futures (ESZ2 Index)
However, this trade has certain risks as the dollar value effect of a 1-point move in the Nasdaq 100 ($20) is different from a 1-point move in the S&P500 ($50).
Therefore, another way to set up this spread trade would be to:
- Short 5 Nasdaq 100 Futures contract (NQZ2 Index)
- Long 2 S&P 500 Futures (ESZ2 Index)
Where the dollar value of the position is equal whether the Nasdaq or S&P moves by 1 point. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is low.
We think the Nasdaq’s past behavior might be back to haunt investors, hence we prefer to be on the short side, whether using the outright short or a spread to express our view.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
Long Russell! - Trading w Commercials - Fading Speculators (COT)Looking at the net positions of the Commercials (Red Line), the Russell 2000 is at record high levels. Additionally, the small speculators (Blue Line - tough to see but it's blown up on lower indicator)) are very short compared to historical levels. The COT index on the bottom shows dark green when both commercials are maxed net long and small speculators are maxed net short. Use a daily chart with your favorite indicator/candlestick pattern to look for entry - be patient - don't forget a stop. See below for explanations of what you're looking at and what I'm talking about with COT
RISKS: The trend is down which makes this counter-trend trade
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
2000 vs 2022Some similarities between 2000 vs 2022
1. Before reaching ATH the index did a very sharp decline of 33%
2. It took the index 17 bars to reach an ATH vs 20 now
3. Found support on 40SMA after 9 months from ATH vs 7 now
4. Mass retail participation
5. .com mania vs crypto mania? (did luna just popped the bubble?)
6. Interest rates were falling back in 2000 vs rising now (tradingeconomics.com)
7. Inflation was not even close back then to what is is now (tradingeconomics.com)
What to wait for
1. Holding or not 40SMA!!!
2. Where RSI, MACD & DMI will head towards next months
3. The index went -18.35% lower than the previous big decline which equals Nasdaq declining just above where the previous wave ended
4. It took the index 23 months by the time it touched for the first time the 40SMA to bottom which means April 2024 just 6 months before the elections
When the bubble burst in 2000 nobody really blamed the "system" like in 09 simply because everybody participated in it. It's like blaming yourself! How many people have the courage to do that? Could the same be told about the current situation? Yes, governments printed trillion of money but they did not put a gun in your head telling you, it's either you invest in crypto/stock market or you are done. We participated because our friends and family did, we participated because we were greedy, we participated because we believed in a fairytale and we participated because we wanted an"exit" from the system but all we did was feed the system!
I cannot really find any really strong arguments to support that the same will not happen again in the not-so-distant future. I am only thinking that if it is that obvious maybe the markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent!
I stand by the Tradinview's motto LOOK FIRST/THEN LEAP
Nasdaq 2000 vs Nasdaq 2022So many similarities...
1. Mass participation of retail
2. Enthusiasm about new technology! it was .com back then it is crypto now!
3. Failed IPOs/SPACs
4. Is it that obvious??? We just don't fight the FED? no technical analysis, no fundamental, no politics, NOTHING???
5. Can the bomb fall twice in the same place?
Let's all short Nasdaq and make money right??? not so sure...