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2008

Financial Crisis 2023 Firstly, September 2007 - Lehman Brothers collapse March 2023 - Silicon Valley Bank collapse Asset correlations (bottom pane): Gold ( red ) - on a slow rise in 2007, same as today Dollar strength ( blue ) - bearish in 2007, same as today Nasdaq (orange) - bearish in 2007, same as today Indicators' inference : The top pane shows a logarithmic version of an indicator called MACD leader (zero lag). 2006 - 2007 and 2022 - 2023 have so far been the only years which produce inconclusive monthly signals since 1988. The middle pane's aim is to signal simultaneous movements of securities and spread graph equations. Each line represents the correlation coefficient between the main chart and a financial instrument. Spread graphs attempt to illustrate peaks in inflows/outflows from equities --> safe heavens through correlation. Similar to spread graph equations, the idea of accounting for the movement of capital to different assets was applied to make the main chart: TVC:IXIC*10000000*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+5)*TVC:GOLD)^-1 Finally, Current Retest(D): Same chart - Longer Period (3M): Feel free to drop a question. Thanks for your time!
TVC:IXICShort
by Sanzhar_m
20
S&P500 - Outlook - 2023 - 1st Week of January - 4 Hour ChartS&P500 Outlook for the 1st week of January 2023 on the 4 hour chart. Looking for a minor high, or the beginning of a strong move to the downside to HEAVILY short the market within the first few days, or first trading week of January. 1) Always have your stop loss in place. 2) Always have your 'take-profit' target planned before entering. 3) Always be open to being wrong, and exit when the market is not heading in the anticipated direction.
FX:SPX500Short
by U2Rinfinite
1
Gold, Daily, The last decline before the increase?On the XAUUSD chart, a clear SMC setup is seen. After the liquidity grab, the price has reacted to the weekly daily-refined supply zone with a Head and Shoulders formation (4H). To complete this formation, the price might bounce off the 4-hour flip zone. Drops, breaking through the support and making the next break of structure, can stop at the nearest demand zone and, following the 2008 analogy, start increases in the gold price. I will publish an idea about this analogy, as I did with the S&P 500 index and VIX. Check out my related ideas as well.
TVC:GOLDShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
Volatility S&P 500 Index, Daily, The Upcoming Market Crash?I think that in mid-November we may be dealing with a stock market crash. Let's take a look at the volatility index of the S&P 500 stock index. The analogy of 2008 has been fulfilling almost perfectly so far. If it continues, the price should completely fill the gap and rebound from the green zone. If we break the red zone, I would expect a rebound from the newly created flip zone (gray box on the chart) and a dynamic increase in volatility. Volatility means big drops or big gains. In the current macroeconomic situation, it is difficult to think about dynamic increases, especially this winter. The potential trade on VIX to rebound from the green zone and break through the peaks from March 2020 has as much as a 20:1 risk-reward ratio (SL under the zone). I am sure there will be even more great opportunities for this scenario on shorting, i.e., SP500, Nasdaq 100 or DAX.
TVC:VIXLong
by MichaelFX_ICT
6
S&P 500, Daily, 2008 Analogy - before the worst?I have been considering the 2008 analogy for some time. I tried to find an important price resistance and I found it. In 2008, the worst drops started at 1313 and it was a fibo retracement of about 47,5%. Today, a similarly important level, in my opinion, is the retracement of 3939, which is also about 47,5% fibo. Of course, I don't expect a perfect rebound of the price from that point, as it was with 1313 in 2008. It is also important to look at the VIX index (related idea linked) and the lower time frame structure (by the analogy, there should be no big drops, but confirmation in the medium and short-term structure - 1H/15m). If the swing low is broken, I will be looking at the momentum in order to predict the bottom. Personally, I think the March 2020 low will be broken. In 2008, we also had a break of the bear market low after the dotcom bubble. Of such fundamental matters that indicate the further course of the bear market, I can include, for example: - inverted yield curves , - a huge divergence between T10Y2Y and T10Y3M before the curve is inverted, - a divergence between Real and Nominal Disposable Personal Income (Nominal is rising, Real is in decline), - a divergence between Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade (is rising) and Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (in decline) since March 2021, - the recessionary PMI. And that is all I wanted to convey to you. Not investment advice, only my own opinion.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
4
Copper, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyLet's see what the 2008 analogy says about the next thing. Currently, we can observe a similarity in many charts, e.g., the S&P 500 index, VIX, gold, and USOIL / UKOIL, to what was happening in 2008. Copper is no exception, and the analogy indicates copper's price decline. If the price follows it perfectly, the declines may end in the second zone. But I do not expect such accuracy; there is also the closer (first) zone, which can bring it on. I will write no more about it, why it may happen. Check out the related ideas.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
WTI Crude Oil, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyThe actual USOIL weekly chart is confusingly similar to the 2008 daily chart. By analogy, the oil price should go south even to twenty-something dollars. The current economic situation confirms it, as the leading economic indicator (LEI) announces a recession in the near future. Also, moving average analysis confirms it. I matched the closest smoothing moving average (53), which was support after by candle closes (two taps) a year ago. And now, the same moving average was a strong resistance also with two taps by candle closes/opens.
TVC:USOILShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
S&P500 Going down another 40% - Market Bottom in May 2023In conjunction with my previous Dow Jones analysis (Link to it down below), we foresee another 40% drop in S&P500 until mid-2023. The analysis done on these charts is based on old repeated market cycles that were last seen during the market crash of 2008. As you can see clearly on the charts, the market has been playing the exact scenario of 2008, since March of 2022! It's fascinating how similar markets are working their way, and people don't seem to notice at all... There is a verse of the bible that W.D.Gann used a lot in his books which says: "What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." Always keep this in mind when you are reading the market.
SP:SPXShort
by brokerland
1
SPX500 recession is already here?I compared what happened in 2008 with current chart: - In 2008, the market fell over 50% - In 2008, the bear market lasted around 450 days If we’re about to witness similar situation now, we are long way from the bottom: - 50% drop would be around 2200, they we would see double bottom and trend revelsal - the bear market would last till March/April 2023 Of course the market doesn’t have to repeat the same pattern. I believe the worst is yet to come. If we look into this using Elliott waves, we did Wave 1, we’re about to finish Wave 2- 4200 strong resistance. It means next Wave 3 will be a big one. After seeing good numbers on Non Farm Payrols last Friday, the markets didn’t rally. It means Fed might be more hawkish in September to fight the inflation, raising interests rates even by 0.75 point. It is not a trading advice, please do your own analysis.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
3.5 years to recover 2008 recessionIt took about 3.5 years, from the last top in late 2007, to cross all relevant moving averages in early 2011, for us to confirm all the market bottoms were in. During that time, more than half of the market was lost in its last bottom compared to its last top. Expect same or worse in this 2022 recession, as more things will pop in this everything bubble. The current Triple EMA (TEMA) has only dipped about the same as during the pandemic, so we have only just begun the slow drop. Take care & keep looking for sectors, equities & ETNs that perform well in recessions, including the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) Short ETF : BITI
AMEX:SPYShort
by roelds
Reasons for Crypto-Optimism During the Next RecessionMade a list of a few things for crypto holders to be optimistic about the recession/depression about to unfold in the global markets right now. - Crypto's market cap is less than 1% (possibly even less than 0.1%) of traditional stocks. If the stock market goes down, - Banks are taking their time raising interest rates on savings accounts while pushing mortgage and loan rates up at the same time. This will make staking rewards (XTZ- 4.6%, ETH - 3.65%) look appealing. - The 2008 recession coincides with a period where tech companies (Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft) took over the charts of the Fortune 500. We're likely to see a similar thing happen again - crypto is the industry most positioned to be in that category right now. - Ponzi schemes exist in traditional markets too, and we're going to see Bernie Madoff-esque figures emerge as the market starts to dip. Madoff was able to keep his racket going for over 20 years just because the stock market kept on going up and up. When that stops, the scams will too. (Many of these practices have been "legalized" in the finance worlds at this point, but it won't change the fact that people will lose money and there will be a backlash against that.) This will further erode trust in the traditional markets as a whole. People generally don't do research unless they're forced to, but the economic slowdown may force a lot of people to look further into the details out there. This generally works in favor of crypto assets since what they offer now is just a better deal for most people out there.
KRAKEN:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
1
If we are headed into 08 Crash...If we are headed into an 08 crash we are looking at a 50% pullback from Novembers top lasting about 70 weeks from November 2021. This would put bottom around 2100 with a complete bottom around June 2023. THIS IS ALL SPECULATIVE and not financial advice. This is just a comparison to the previous drop in 2008 we are facing different headwinds this time around so it is still unknown what the outcome will be. There is a chance for more or less carnage than we saw then. While playing in this Bear Market always remember to take profits quick! Good Luck All
SP:SPX
by tirsobust
1
What if this time isn't different? A 2 year scenario projecting the financial crisis of 2008-2009 into the future Chart (W, LOG): Stocks: The averaged futures for SPX, NAS and DJ were weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see www.barchart.com 200MA, 50MA, and 21MA Today's price and date: at the intersection of the cross. Financial crisis: Purple box on the left Implied scenario: Purple box on the right. Left edge starts 10/5/2022 ("Today" .. for the next 10 min) Methodology: The scenario is a scaled up copy of the box at 2008-2009. It is stretched to fit the current price, and it's 3 MA's. For simplicity the price / time aspect ratio was preserved. Criteria for 'best fit' (using IEI ) were the absolute level and curvature of the 3 MA's. In other words, the distance between the MA's, their slopes, and the speed each slope was changing. Main Implications: The scenario implies a crash (ripped from Feb 2009) beyond the March, 2020 COVID low, as far as the highs of 2015. This is after the end of QE, when Greece went into default and the Yen was devalued overnight . "Bottom" of the implied crash is one year from today (10/5/2022). Notes: 1. IEI : I eyeballed it 2. Gann would not be happy and the result could be different on a RENKO or equivalent treatment of time (a great follow up idea) 3. The night the Yen was devalued I held positions in gold in bond futures (GC and ZB). I have used stops without exceptions from that day on. best graphics:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gb50k
3
The Bubble Could Pop Like It Did In 1929I and others who try to spot patterns in charts are starting to see a lot of similarities compering bull run from the 2008-2021 and the one from 1921-1929. You can clearly see that patterns are profoundly which to be honest, it keeps me up at night. Stock market as well as crypto market are VERY high. In last few years/months. everyone wants to become a day-trader or whatever, and having a mindset that everything can only go up from here. It was the same mindset back in 1928-1929 where everyone knew about the stock market, getting overleveraged and promoting it as it could make you rich over night. It is the same now so i want to worn people about all this. Don't listen CNBS and financial media as they are only there to create liquidity for the institutions so they can sell when the time comes. That time is right around the corner. Also a fib. extension levels extended over previous fall in 2008 takes us to around 11-13% above where we currently are with DOW. Don't be naive and say that this time is different. It's not. Maybe the fall will not be that dramatic as the bubble is not as big as it was in 1929 but we certainly could and probably will fall below the bottom of 2008 ( roughly to 6k), so don't be surprised if it turns out this bear market is longer and deeper, because we need such correction for the market to stay healthy. I am not financial advisor so non of this is a financial advise, just a BIG warning to you all. DJ:DJI
DJ:DJI
by CR35
8