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200ma

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 281)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634 Previous analysis: “It can be frustrating when things are so neutral. However this is a great time to practice patience and potentially focus on other markets.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats | Short USDT:USD from $0.99 Patterns: Bear channel / hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,375 (currently being tested) | R: $3,600 BTCUSDSHORTS: Looks like it is trying to find support above down trendline Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0075% Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Held very nicely as resistance Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish as it gets Overall trend: Fully bearish Volume: Volume decreasing as price consolidates / pulls up Candlestick analysis: Lower high and lower low when comparing todays candle to yesterdays. Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to follow 9 MA and Kijun-Sen continues to track along the 33 MA while in a C-Clamp. Now I am noticing that the cloud seems to ~ line with with 200 MA. That makes a lot of sense why a kumo breakthrough would provide such good entries and the cloud would act as support / resistance beforehand. Really liking these traditional settings! TD’ Sequential: Red 9 closed today Visible Range: 1 month lookback shows high volume nodes from $3,600 - $4,400 Price action: 24h: -4.1% | 14d: -12.1% | 30 day: -44.6% Bollinger Bands: Top band in line with 33 MA. Bband MA at $3,815 Trendline: Holding as resistance Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Rolling over bearish Parabolic SAR: $4,189 RSI: Back below 30 and appears to be finding resistance Stochastic: Threatening to recross bearish < 20 after it looked to be providing a beautiful buy signal Last Day Rule: I was incorrect the last couple days. Bears setup day was today when the candle closed above the low of 12/7. Trigger day would occur if price traded above today’s high ($3,603) at any point (wouldn’t have to wait for close). Summary: As the price found resistance at the trendline things started to turn more bearish. The 9 day MA held as strong resistance, the RSI is back below 30, the Stochastic is threatening to recross bearish. Volume has decreased while price has pulled up from the low. Today’s candle had a lower high and and a lower low when compared to yesterday’s candle. I even considered taking the short entry on Bitcoin or Ethereum when the daily close below the 4 MA. However I passed because there are a couple very strong reasons telling me to stay away from shorts. First is the 200 week MA which I expect to act as strong support. Second is the daily Average Directional Index, which indicates in exhausted trend in the short term. Third is the daily red 9, as well as an agressive 13, on the TD’ Sequential. Fourth is the futures market being in backwardation for the last couple weeks. I have learned from Ugly Old Goat that this is a bullish indicator. All in all I am still not taking a long until price close above the 9 MA, even then I may pass. If not I will be extremely careful with my position sizing and leverage due to betting again the trend. I don’t like the risk:reward on a short at these prices and I don’t love the r:r on a long due to the 33 MA and daily parabolic SAR waiting from $4,181 - $4,500.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
DEATH CROSS COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU!As you can see, from the chart that the current trajectory of the 50 and 200 day SMA's are indicating that by mid December we will have us a Death Cross in the Broadest market measure...the S & P 500. This could however happen sooner or later than 12/12/18. This is given that the SMA's stay on their current trajectory through 12/12/18. A larger than expected fall from here could make that Cross happen much sooner, and a rise from here would push it out until mid January or February. Its going to happen either way.
SP:SPXShort
by jasonroy40
1
BTCUSD 3-6 Months pricetargetHello, What goes up, needs to come down aswell... After breaking the 6K level last week Bitcoin is looking for a solid support and new liquidity. An expected breakdown based on my previous analysis on the BTCUSD daily (see below). What I expect during the coming weeks to come: Exponential sell-off(s); This is needed in order to form a bottom (yellow bars) This will drive down the price heavily and drive up (DMI-) This idea supports the formation and continuation of the new ADX 'trend'. Support and price target @ 200weekly MA: 3 000$ Im looking forward to your feedback, Best, Bavo
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Bavo_DB
20
A Cyclical Review of the SPX Since Inception Shows the Next BullThe years denoted on the chart are the centre of each yellow circle. In each circle is the central violation of the 200 month moving average, amongst a cluster of three. You'll see the 200 month MA serves as support either side of the one circled. This is a bit of a loose use of the term support but what I mean is big recessions like this seem to result in three touches or violations of this MA. I've made a bit of a guess of the one in the 1870s but it seems a fairly clear pattern in the 1930s, 1970s and one may be emerging right now, with the first violation in 2009 according to one way of interpreting it: Version 1 Going by the pattern, we'll have two more 200 MA intersections then we're good to go in another multi decade bull market. I don't know when, but Barron's has said 2020 will be the start of the recession. Going by the chart, to get back to the 200 month MA we will need to at least go down to 1650 on the index. This is about a 50% retraction. Version 2 Another way to interpret it is we've had our three touches in 2009, '10 and '11. They are very close together though. In the 1930s recession, the first touch/support was in '21, the last in '42, a 21 year stretch before the next bull market. The one in '75 was much shorter, first support '74, second '78. A four year stretch. So perhaps governments have gotten more skilled at managing recessions and it's realistic to expect this one to be done and dusted in three years.
SP:SPX
by ndthl
A 4 to 5 Decade Cycle on the SPXThe years denoted on the chart are the centre of each yellow circle. In each circle is the central violation of the 200 month moving average, amongst a cluster of three. You'll see the 200 month MA serves as support either side of the one circled. This is a bit of a loose use of the term support but what I mean is big recessions like this seem to result in three touches or violations of this MA. I've made a bit of a guess of the one in the 1870s but it seems a fairly clear pattern in the 1930s, 1970s and one may be emerging right now, with the first violation in 2009. Going by the pattern, we'll have two more then we're good to go in another multi decade bull market. I don't know when, but Barron's has said 2020 will be the start of the recession. Going by the chart, to get back to the 200 month MA we will need to at least go down to 1650 on the index. This is about a 50% retraction. Another way to interpret it is we've had our three touches in 2009, '10 and '11. They are very close together though. In the 1930s recession, the first touch/support was in '21, the last in '42, a 21 year stretch before the next bull market. The one in '75 was much shorter, first support '74, second '78. So perhaps governments have gotten more skilled at managing recessions and it's realistic to expect this one to be done and dusted in three years.
SP:SPXShort
by ndthl
BTC - Boring Range H4Hello guys, boring chart, we've been trading in the same range since Oct. 15. Price is currently stuck at the 50/100 EMA, they are currently acting as resistance which is a good sign for me. The more we hit a resistance/support the weaker it get. If we indeed break that resistance I expect the 200 EMA to be the next solid resistance and the 50/100 EMA would be acting as support. MORE SIDEWAYS ACTION LOL. But at the same time, what apply to the 50/100 EMA resistance right now apply for the 200 EMA too. We tested it 5 times since Oct 15. But is 5 times in the last week enough to smash the ol' n' mighty 200 EMA, hmm... The other important thing that I'm seeing is that we are currently consolidating/distributing below a important pivot point (6500~) which could be a good sign of a future breakout above or below. So I will be waiting for a breakout on either direction, even thought I feel more bullish right now. Be patient, trade wisely, don't copy me and of course keep learning ! vOid
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by vOidca
Maybe this is what SAVEs (clever, right? ;) our portfolio's!Just a quick little post, been a while. SAVE is looking quite nice right now actually. Above all the VWAP's (won't let me draw them from the ATH, but I can assume it's above that point) and fib extensions look quite nice. Here's a quick moving average update. Not the best trendline, I know, but even with the 3 turning points, it definitely helps give you an idea about the stock. It has had quite some nice accumulation phases, and now perceives to trend higher (especially after earnings that came out wednesday). As far as Airlines go, I hate flying Spirit airlines, but I will choose them every damn time if they're at the top of the google flights screener because they're the cheapest one. Budget Airlines are they way to go now-a-days, have been for a while, and this one has been beat down for so long even with the quality financial health of their balance sheet relative to other budget airlines. In terms of the overall market, definitely don't recommend going long for a little bit until things clear up; but if you are, might as well choose a stock you think will actually benefit your portfolio, and this one doesn't seem to be a terrible addition!
NYSE:SAVELong
by croganm
NZD/USD expanded flatI posted my daily wave analysis yesterday. Looks like it may sell down some more. If you sell it, then, if you can hedge, let some run when it's in profit in case it keeps going and then look for a buy setup. That way, if you got in the buy and it didn't go... You only loose partial profit on the sell. That's how I prefer to trade personally. But if you look at the daily bollinger bands and candles, it looks like it is making a flag. Refer to my daily chart. Looking for a daily candlestick to wick below mid band (20ma). But my focus is a longterm buy. May come from around the .6500 level.
by thillygoosth
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 230)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart . It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison ]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time Previous analysis / position: “If we breakdown $6,370 then it would confirm the bearish harami as well as the hanging man. If that were to happen I will be prepared with a small stop order set to short $6,369.” / Short USDT:USD’ from 0.968 Patterns: Descending triangle / bearish harami Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,410 | R: $6,454 BTCUSDSHORTS: Really started to look like they will break out of the triangle to the upside. Once volatility picks up so will volume and we should see unprecedented levels of short sellers. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): Bullish (price above MA) Medium term trend (4 week MA | 2 & 32 day MA’s): Bearish | Bearish Long term trend ( 32 Week | 50 & 128 day): Bearish | Bearish Overall trend: If daily closes below $6,438 then all will be bearish Volume: Surprised volatility didn’t continue after the volume spike on the 15th. Now we are back to painfully low levels. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351 Candlestick analysis: Harami inside a harami. Can we get a 3rd matryoshka doll? Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud acting as strong support at $6,424 TD’ Sequential: Weekly red 2 will fall below a red 1 at $6,086. Placing a stop order there could be a good idea Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,246 to $6,371 with 5 day look back Price action: 24h: -0.1% | 2w: +/- 0 | 1m: +2.95% Bollinger Bands: Daily MA acting as strong resistance Trendline: Top of descending triangle ~/= $6,725 Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057 RSI: Hanging around 50 on most TF’s. 4h is a little overbought Stoch: Recrossing bearish on 12h, going for retest on daily after creating higher high Summary: I am closely watching the red trendline on the USDT:USD’ 1 hour chart as well as prior historical support at 0.9642. As long as it stay below those areas then I do not feel very comfortable about holding a short on BTC’ or ETH’. Furthermore I am strongly expecting the lower wick from October 15th’s candle to get re explored, similar to what followed October 2nd’s candle. If it has another selloff then BTC’ and other cryptos should get another pump. If it stablizes then I will feel comfortable going back to my normal approach of 99% TA Nevertheless, trading is about risk reward and properly managing positions. If the r:r is tilted too much in my favor then I will open a large position regardless of what is happening with Tether and I will use a market stop loss if need be. I posted a chart earlier with a $35 target for ETH:USD and that is a prime example of something that is too favorable to pass up. In the mean time there is an incoming death cross on the 3D chart with the 50 and 200 MA’s. The first close below the 200 MA is what led to my most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison . Only other time this happened was in October of 2014.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
10
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day ChartOn September 5th I made a similar post comparing the daily chart to the 128 MA. It is much more detailed, however the conclusions didn't change much. The TL:DR of the previous comparison reads as follows: Bottom: $2,860 on October, 31st 2018 Range: $3,750 - $5,800 for 8 - 9 months Breakthrough: $6,100 on June 21, 2019 Because the RSI is not oversold and we are in a tighter coil than last time I expect a faster selloff and therefore a faster rebound. That may or may not mean that the price will go lower, that will depend on support, it does mean that I expect the target to be hit faster than the 1:1 comparison that I did on the chart posted above. There is no way to tell how much faster so I am going to stick with my prediction from the previous bubble comparison, for at least another week. Only continue from here if you are interested in my subjective view of the fundamentals about the USDT' situation. I almost always stick with technicals, because I believe that they reign supreme ~99% of the time. I believe that if there is news that will affect the market then it will be seen in the charts before it will be heard in the news ~99% of the time. I think Tether' is a very good example of that, there was a major selloff without the news that I would expect to back it up. There is always FUD' surrounding USDT' about banking relationships, Bitfinex, unbacked Tethers' etc. However, USDT:USD' has never broke 0.8897 in it's ~18 month history on Kraken and it fell to 0.85 on Saturday night. We have also never seen such a drastic premium on USDT' exchanges when compared to USD exchanges as far as I am aware. To me this represents big money making big moves, which would suggest that insiders know something we don't. There is a very good chance that I am wrong about that, and I will certainly not be making trades based on loose suspicions. However, I am trying my best to understand the situation and that is what makes most sense to me. Once I feel like I understand the underlying fundamentals of the market then I can get back to doing TA. I do believe that Tether is single handedly driving the crypto market right now. The premium remains on the USDT' exchanges and the USDT:USD pair remains in dangerous territory. If it cannot close above historical support of $0.98 in the next couple days then it will be ripe for another selloff. If that does continue to fall then I expect BTC' to moon on USDT' exchanges. This last pump came on Tether losing 14% of it's market cap and 12% of it's USD value (at it's low). At it's peak, that added 16% to the value of BTC:USD' + BTC:USDT' / 2 Therefore it is clear that a flight to safety from USDT' to BTC' would also cause people to FOMO in with USD. If Tether' were to legitimately go to $0 then there is no telling how high that would pump the price of BTC:USD' or BTC:USDT'. However, once people ran out of USDT' then there would be very few buyers at the inflated prices and a sharp reversal would be expected. If insiders had information then they already made there moves and now there could be a situation where I put technicals to the side. All TA that I have done would suggest that > $8,500 BTC' would = the next bull market. Before this weekend I would have been very confident in becoming bullish on Bitcoin at a price above $8,500. Now I would hesitate very much to make that same claim unless USDT:USD was ~1:1 on Kraken or unless the price stayed there for a month or two. I am currently shorting USDT:USD at $0.97. I view this as a very safe trade while waiting to buy back into BTC'. It everything stabilizes then I should be able to breakeven by buying back at support. If not then I have orders set at $0.85 / $0.75 / $0.5 and $0.01 to cover 25% of my position. While waiting for BTC' to figure itself out I think this is a great way to put my sidelined fiat to work.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2