200sma
WTI trade ideaPrice using 200SMA as confirmed resistance, the break is a buy signal.
Price shows exhaustion however based on the candles. And indices stopped their bullish run for now.
Powell testifies today and could create volatility across markets.
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ADRO C&H + Wedge BreakoutPrice has broken out of a wedge pattern that comprises the handle portion of the C+H. Consolidation in handle/wedge has occurred above an upward sloping 200 day SMA which had acted as resistance for 4+ years. MACD bullish cross occurred 5/21. It is a buy on a pullback to the breakout level around $3.15. Stock must stay above $3 for me to maintain a bullish bias. Price target of $5, I wouldn't settle for anything less than $4.30.
EYEG Wedge Breakout + MACD CrossPrice consolidating atop the 200 SMA, and recently the 50 SMA. MACD bull cross, and RSI finding strong support on top of the 50 EMA of the RSI convey upside momentum bias (I find the 50 EMA on the 14 RSI to be very informative, I recommend you try it for yourself). I am looking for price to stay supported by 5 day SMA and I will look to buy the wedge breakout to the upside. The $4.80 level that has been local support is also a .786 retracement of the move off the Aug '19 lows to the Dec '19 highs. As usual, try to get in on the post breakout pullback but if volume is strong I'll probably just jump in. Minimum target is $6.50, an area I think is key resistance although the measured target given the size of the wedge is +$8.00.
S&P 500 testing trend line before Trump's speechSo Trump will be delivering speech today on China and their new law for Hong Kong. So market is waiting for now.
The uptrend line will be tested soon. Upon the break we could target a retest of 200SMA.
Of course all depends on the speech and could affect the sentiment for next week.
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AUDUSD testing key daily resistanceAUDUSD at a key daily level, testing resistance just under 0.67. Seems like it fully retraced the 'COVID-19' sell off. As economies re-open and indices climb higher, sentiment is risk on for AUD.
200SMA on daily also being tested. Waiting for the break and close above 0.67 for confirmation to target 0.68.
So far the news is bullish for market.
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SPY Hangman or FakeoutYesterday the SPY broke above an important level (GAP) at 302. It also confirmed two consecutive days above the 200sma. Interestingly enough on the last close it printed a bearish hangman candlestick. It'll be interesting to see what happens into the end of the week. If we can keep above the 200sma and print a proper bullish structure (double bottom etc), then the potential upside is pretty impressive. If we break down through the 200, I recon we get stuck in a trading range somewhere between 290s-300.
EURUSD approaches key levelDaily chart shows the lows are getting higher, price approaching the 1.10 level and 200SMA.
If we break and close above, then it opens targets to the upside.
So far, bullish mood in equities makes the USD weak.
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BASI 4+ yr Channel Support + Strong Bull CasePrice has found support at two prior longer term tops as well as the midline of a 4+ year price channel. More recently, stock has broken out of a downtrend and has subsequently found support at the $4 level which is where 3 very important things lie:
1) 50% retracement (not drawn on) of the move up from $3.05 to $4.95 off the 3/23/20 low
2) along a rising support trendline tested 3+ times (3/23, 4/2, 5/12, etc)
3) the 200 day SMA
MACD cross occurred today on twice the 10 day average volume.
All in all, as I have presented it, it sounds to me like a very strong buy case, let's see if I am right.
LRN 50/200 Cross + Wedge BreakoutCurrently trading in an expanding channel/megaphone pattern with a local wedge forming in the gap. I like the $25 - $26 area to initiate a long as that was a prior breakdown and breakout level, and at that price a wedge breakout and MACD cross should have occurred. Additionally, the 50 MA is setting up for a cross of the 200 MA at a very aggressive slope. If you were to examine the 5 and 20 SMA (which are normally part of my analysis but have been removed due to the business of my annotations) you would see they are also setting up in a very bullish manner. RSI holding strong during consolidation and MACD cross appears set to cross tomorrow. Take a moment to look at how the stock has historically respected support/resistance and channels. This setup is very reminiscent of my 'BDSI long' idea which is at the very bottom of my page so I hope you take a look at that and see the similarity and most importantly the resulting success of that setup.
AUDUSD ALEXANDER ELDER 3 SCREEN TRADING STRATEGY
As the name of the Elder trading system suggests there are three “screens” that we apply to every trade. The three screens used by Alex Elder can be summarized as follows:
First Screen used for establishing a trading bias.
The second Screen applies technical indicators to identify retracements against the trading bias established earlier.
The third Screen is used for timing your entries using short-term breakouts in the direction of your trading bias.
As you can probably tell, the Alex Elder trading rules involve the use of multi-timeframe analysis.
The first screen starts with higher degree time frames and subsequently we downgrade our time frames lower as we progress with the 3 screens.
In total, trading Alexander Elder system involves using three different time frames:
The long-term trend – Alex Elder calls this as being the tide
The medium-term trend – this trend is also known as the wave
The short-term trend – it’s also referred to as the ripple
Elder Trading System – First Screen
According to Dr. Alexander Elder’s rules, the first screen starts with a time frame bigger than the time frame you’re looking to trade.
For example, if your preferred time frame is the daily chart, you first start by looking at higher time frames like the weekly chart. This is the chart where you’re going to apply the trend-following indicators to establish your bias.
If the trend is up, we only look for buy signals. Inversely, if the trend is down, we only look for sell signals. By going through this process, we can filter out trades against the primary trend.
Elder Trading System – Second Screen
Dr. Elder trading rules recommend downgrading our time frame lower. If during the First Screen we used the weekly chart, the next lower time frame we can use is the daily chart. Now, we look for price movements against the tide.
In other words, we’re waiting for pullbacks or what Elder system calls the “wave”.
Learn the most profitable approach to profit from pullbacks HERE.
This in return will help us spot good times to execute your trades. The Elder trading system uses oscillators to identify these price movements against the tide.
For example, if the weekly tide is up, then we’re looking for the oscillator to identify when the wave is down and that’s when we buy. On the other hand, if the weekly tide is down, then we’re looking for the oscillator to identify when the wave is up and that’s when we sell.
Elder Trading System – Third Screen
The Elder trading system refers to the third screen as the execution screen. Or, in other words, this time frame is used for better timing our entries.
We have to downgrade our time frame lower.
The next in order time frame is the 4h chart.
When the trend on the third screen aligns with the trend of the first screen that’s the optimal trade entry. To time your trades, Alexander Elder uses a trailing stop in order to seize small breakout in the direction of the main trend.
Basically, that’s what the Elder system is all about.
Dr. Alexander Elder Rules on how to Use Multiple Time Frame Analysis
The Alexander Elder trading strategy uses a technique to balance out the different information that comes from looking at different time frames.
The Elder’s technique involves using a factor of four to six to classify his time frames.
Let me explain…
Alexander Elder factor of 4 to 6 can help us divide our charts into smaller units of 4, 5, or 6.
The way to go about it is to first select your larger time frame (first screen) and then downgrade the charts lower by a factor of 4, 5, or 6.
For example, if your first screen is the daily chart and we downgrade our time frame by a factor of 6, the next time frame would be the 4-hour chart.
Four multiplied by 6, it gives us 24-hours, which is a day.
Using a factor of 4 will require us to downgrade our charts to the 8-hours time frame.
Now, to find your execution screen aka the third screen, we have to downgrade our time frames lower one more time. If we used a factor of 4, the next down in line time frame is the 1-hour chart.
So, the 1-hour time frame is our third screen.
Note* if after downgrading the charts, the exact time frame doesn’t exist, then as a general rule the closest one is used.
This is the method used by Dr. Alexander Elder to select his time frames.
Long Range - 1st screen Weekly - 2nd screen Daily - 3rd screen 4H
Mid Range - 1st screen Daily - 2nd screen 4H - 3rd screen 1H
Short Range - 1st screen 4H - 2nd screen 1H - 3rd screen 15m
When to buy using the Alexander Elder Trading Strategy
According to Alex Elder trading rules, the best moment to buy is when an uptrend has undergone a pullback and has started to resume the bullish trend.
For this example, we’re going to use as the first screen the 4H chart.
So, the 4H chart is used to determine the long-term trend. And, for this purpose, the 200-day moving average, which is the standard measurement of bullish and bearish trends, will be our trend filter.
Check if the price is trading above the 200-day moving average to confirm the uptrend.
The next step is to downgrade our time frame to the second screen.
If the first screen used the daily chart, the next in line time frame is the 4-hour chart.
The middle time frame is going to be used to spot corrections against the bullish trend.
For this purpose, we’re going to use the MACD indicator applied to the 4-hour time frame.
We wait for the MACD lines to rise from the oversold condition and the moving average slops have turned upwards again.
Note* Dr. Alexander Elder recommends to use the Force index or another momentum oscillator to add more confluence.
The next step is to downgrade our time frame to the third screen.
If on the second screen we used the 4-hour time frame, the next in line time frame is the 1-hour chart.
The short-term time frame is going to be used to time the market.
However, since Alexander Elder doesn’t provide rigid rules for entry and exit, it’s time to reveal the Ace from our sleeve. For timing the market with great result, we’re going to use the Know Sure Thing indicator.
On the 15m time frame, we wait for the Know Sure Thing oscillator to cross above the zero lines to trigger a buy signal. The KST indicator is great because it also signals burst in momentum.
What does it mean for your trade?
Simply, you get the chance for your trade to show a profit right from the start.
Note* for sell signals the same trading rules can be applied but in reverse.
Final words – Alexander Elder Trading System
The Alexander Elder trading strategy can be used as a building block for your own trading strategy. The Elder trading system has the advantage of using multi time frame analysis to verify the market trend in several degrees.
According to Dr. Alexander Elder, the single most important factor that will dictate your profitability is the quality of the records that you keep. We succeed in some trades and make mistakes in others. However, we can only improve our trading strategy only if we learn from both winning and losing trades.
And, that’s why Dr. Elder believes that journaling is an absolute must as it makes you into your own teacher.
GBPUSD outlookTesting trend line for the 3rd time soon. A bounce from it would confirm the trend line. Also 200SMA is there.
A break to the upside creates buying opportunity to the next levels.
A sell option in consideration if the price impulsively falls back below 1.22
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USDJPY trade planA break of support (green) is a signal to pull back to 106.8 area, though could stop at 107 round number.
Making new highs is a buy signal as we break the 200SMA properly and go to test resistance.
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GBPJPY Will price fall back down to our bullish zone? This is a full breakdown of my perception of price action on higher time frames! I take my entries using smaller time frame confirmation and you should, too. If you have any questions about this trade or my strategies feel free to ask them in the comment section below!
Let’s make some money together!
All in if BTC finds support above 200 SMA on 3 hrly @ ~6580 USDIf BTC can pierce above the orange 200 SMA on the 3 hrly @ 6580 USD, then I am all in with the rest of the USDT from BTC that I had previously cost-average sold off at ca. 9636 USD when the price dipped below the orange 200 SMA.
Stop loss earlier triggered and sold off almost 30% of my small BTC trading account holdings. :(
Bought back in immediately when BTC pierced above 6143 again.
"PRISM Signals" triggered a buy on the 3 hrly (indicating bullish momentum/acceleration trends).
CYBER ENSEMBLE also registered a buy on the 3hrly earlier, strengthening the case for a bullish short-term bias.
A more zoomed in and "cleaner" view:
"Cleaner" zoomed out view, showing only the 200 SMA on the 3 hrly:
Continued from:
Bitcoin Long position target 9150-9500I want to start this off by saying i believe bitcoin already broke the channel resistance.
as you can see we tested 7800 and responded with an engulfing daily candle, this test was according to my chart and theory the retest of the channels overhead resistance.
To support my idea i have 2 indicators giving bullish signals:
-Stochastic
the stochastic on the daily broke up to the bullish control zone and is now getting a positive posture,
i believe closing anywhere near 8200 today will confirm this cross up.
-SAR (stop and reverse)
The SAR if you are familiar with it, is a indicator that uses dots, the weekly gave a Bullish signal.
Also a indicator which i am not very familiar with, the ichimoku cloud on the daily got a green twist,
as im not very know with this indicator and i cant really tell what this setup means i believe this is also a bullish signal.
So if this were to play out i would have targets from 9150 ( 200 SMA ) to 9500 ( latest top on the weekly)
I dont have any sort of clues after what would happen afterwards but if bitcoin were to get a close above 9500 on the weekly i will extend this target to 12000 over time and possibly higher.
#AUDUSD - A Pullback For Huge Opportunity - Weekly AnalysisHi Traders, AUDUSD is pulling back as expected pretty much like EURUSD. However because in recent weeks it has been creating new highs, we can expect it to continue with that. This current pull back with USDollar over sold, we can get a very good opportunity to go long. We must watch the zone carefully and any sign of bullish movement. The zone has confluence of 38.2 Fib, Round Number 0.6900, trend line and 200 sma.
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