AUDUSD Neutral AUDUSD has been in a bullish rally for about 2 weeks in a row now, ever since the market crashed and the US dollar completely crumbled Trump started dumping money into the economy which has made the market come back to life and people not loose as much money. The markets are looking positive but there has to be a greater idea behind it? Maybe trump dumping so much money into the economy will completely wipe out the US dollar and we go full crypto as our new currency? Hmmmm, well either way here is my mark up we are ready for both things to happen, either way we making moeny. Happy trading traders!
2019
Coronavirus vs. the Economy: Covid19 Recovery High HopesCurrently, the Coronavirus growth have resulted in one of the steepest negative correlations ever seen for a variety of different things. I comparatively looked at: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, the VANGUARD MALVER/SHORT-TERM INFLATION, S&P Global Inc's stock price, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and an Oil Gas Index and seen steep downward spirals, as well as a positive correlation curve right afterwards. Even with the ADR being 1.68 as a decline ration, this is quite good. This means that people are starting to reinvest in the economy, and the steep downwards trend has likely been a result of panic selling. Behavioral psychology is a huge part of this. Even as Coronavirus is expected to hit the 3 million mark soon (and I have been analyzing the entire Covid19 history looking at growth rate), I can see within few month it hitting 5 million and so on. This is with it being curved. Herd immunity also can play a role in slowing everything down as places open back up. Again, don't take what I say seriously or at face value, but I think that the supply and demand curve for most of the economy's assets should stabilize, and expect everything to go back up. It is a slow recovery process, but not looking too detrimental. People could have been making decent gains during the Coronavirus period, but also huge losses. The best trading strategies do well in both a bullish and bearish market.
Covid19 Light at the End of the Tunnel.By tracking TotalDeaths over Confirmed Cases, we now see a slowdown; possibly signalling that the worst is over.
Still, we wan't to see lower highs and lower lows.
When COVID-19 will be gone?This analysis represents the trend of the rate of change of confirmed COVID-19 cases.
The positive change in the confirmed cases is expected to be negative in the beginning of May, and then 90% of the cases should be recovered by mid-july.
Biontech AG Outbreak - First COVID-19 human vaccine trial test Hey fellow Trader,
The uprising Biotechnology company from NASDAQ:BNTX Mainz, Germany is on its final steps from developing a vaccine for the actual Bio-weapon health crisis from the "new flu" .
With Rolf Zinkernagel a brilliant Scientiests that can proudly say to win a nobelprice and a strong financial background , from big names in the Pharmaceutical field.
When BioNTech AG announced to start with the first human vaccine tests after getting an approval in Europa , a US approval should follow shortly after also.
We should expect News from those test in end May/june and if they´ve managed to create a proven vaccine afterwards im staying LONG in this Outbreak because its Trending and the Chances are high for a good R/R.
A Golden Cross is forming and the Overall Stock is positive and with a low beta so less correlation risk in this given "Crazy Market" .
So with a break of the 56 level we should see a strong move up.
Goals are high and i think it could touch the 100 mark again with reactive move down to given support levels if they arent successful with their vaccine Therapy.
STOPLOSS tight at 49,45
I hope this was helpful but it only displays my opionion and no financial adivce is given here.
Sincerly,
Sebastian
There is a cure. The real reason why it is ignored.Recently someone has digged to find the virus probably started in a lab in Wuhan, and the CCP has tried covering their tracks.
Now it is my turn! Almost every one by now must have heard of a cure. And we are told that this problem is very serious and dangerous.
So why are we not hearing much of this cure, and why are politicians and the media criticizing it? I found out why ;)
First of all I read in a science magazine that a vaccine was ready to be mass produced, but I didn't look into that much, I haven't heard about it in the media except maybe FOX news (wonder why they absolutely dominate ratings and have far more viewers than cnn & msnbc combined).
In France you got this genius doctor, Didier Raoult, director of a big infectious disease research & treatment unit. Decorated, renowned worldwide and everything.
His team and him have tried antivirals - very well known antivirals that have been used for over half a century on billions of people - and have had spectacular results.
And other people that tried this had similar results. On 100% of trial patients. So, what are the odds this is all a coincidence? Very very low.
The world is on lockdown and we are said to be facing an emergency, and there is a cure that very likely works wonders. The skeptics that want more tests could have had thousands of tests by now, but haven't done anything like this!
This is suspicious. Why would so many be pushing back against this? When the top experts are telling you to just go for it and they swear it works.
Well I did my research and I think I found why. You might be shocked.
1- Didier Raoult has been called a "Trumpian that downplayed the virus". Ye apparently he said that a worldwide lockdown was medieval and unecessary. I don't know where the Trumpian comes from. Probably just that he's not part of their TDS club, and Trump has shown alot of interest in the cure.
Now, "downplaying the virus" is a complete taboo that sends emotional people into shock. From 0 care to Full Tin Foil hats.
2- This is it. AHEM!
Ah, yet another genius world class top scientist past 60 (so has nothing to lose) that is an *drum roll* evil climate denier.
Funny how many people in his shoes are part of this "3% of nut deniers".
I wonder who I would rather listen to:
- Eminent decorated astophysicists, microbiologists, meteorlogists, with 200 IQ that made huge leaps forward, and are climate skeptics
- A high school dropout, out of touch politicians that keep screeching "12 years left", celibrities that cannot solve an addition, and Bill Nye the science guy
Ye I really wonder who I would rather trust with my life and the future of humanity.
3- He has warned Africans against the dangers of "goodwill charity vaccines". The charitable west wants to use them as guinea pigs.
Talking about guinea, here is an article from Ghana (so LITERALLY tested as guinea humans):
www.ghanaweb.com
Little remark on the side:
I think africans are starting to realize they got scammed when they chose socialism and in particular anti business laws.
Some european countries are qualified of socialist (france denmark sweden) idk if they are or not but what I know is they do not prevent business finance & markets operate well with no restriction.
In alot of african countries it is much harder to start and operate a business than it was in the soviet union.
Add to this competition from whites that want to feel better and send free goods "charity is good".
Add to this africans looking for jobs/money/a future climbing on boats to come to europe etc.
Some african countries have started to change and are more balanced now, some are going in the direction of the far right.
If Europe and NA have a depression they won't send charity there to clear their conscience, and africans won't migrate there as much, so without charity doing so much harm to africans, and with their most active youth still at home, the paradigm shift can only accelerate. There might be some far right (not much far left because I think they had it with the far left), there might be some genocides not much we can do about this unfortunatly, wars revolutions etc.
Rwanda already had their revolution & genocide (not saying it is a good thing) and started transitioning, and for the past years had close to 10% yearly GDP growth.
One of the highest in the world.
I've already talked about this. Might already be good investments there, idk if I can forgive rwanda myself.
When africa paradigm starts shifting, we will have there countries that are extremely undervalued.
In my eyes, the USA are already done. Things should deteriorate, and when there is blood in the street (either us indices down 75% or mega inflation), which should bring down foreign investments too, I expect some extremely cheap and solid companies abroad.
So anyway, now you know. A damn arrogant climate denier! And Trump has spoken positively of him! We can't have that!
I am glad and proud I have someone like this on my side, and the struggling low IQ prefrontal cortex deprived violently oppose us.
Would these TDS sufferers rather DIE than let a "climate denier woooooo" be the hero and get attention? We must make him look bad.
They say they care about lives. Doesn't look like it.
SPX: Correction incoming, setting up for new highs?Lots of dirt cheap buys out there in the market, but will it drop even lower? When it does recover, will the companies you invested in recover as well? Will the even be around to see it run? Its a very interesting time indeed. The catastrophe in 2008 definitely made some people very rich, lets all try to be in that boat this time around!
The current trend looks like it may be approaching a correction here soon. It's had a steady climb since the beginning of April, and not my preferred time to enter a trade. RSI does not have bearish divergence yet, but you can see it is leveling off and losing momentum as price continues to rise. I've always relied heavily on RSI to indicate when we are getting close to the top or bottom of a trend. Hurdles incoming: Mid channel resistance, 200 EMA on the weekly. My prediction is that we will retrace to the golden pocket and/or bright green zone where we find a very strong looking confluence of support. This could set up a higher low and/or double bottom to really get us driving through into a bull run. If it fails, the 1800s may be in our sights.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Currently price has failed to push through lower 3 times, respecting a level of support. USA has had good reportings, a decrease of Covid-19 deaths and infections with California and New York reporting a possible pass of the covid-19 high point. USA government is pumping money into the economy helping farmers, the middle class with stimulus checks and also helping small business with loans. The news has been healthy which has caused the economy to recover some what, it may all be a fugazzi since they are printing money and dumping it into the economy. Wer are currently in a overall bullish market flow currently, price has failed to push lower respecting area of support. I am neutral because 1. We can push lower to get some more demand before pushing higher. 2. We can push higher and break out of area, come back down for a retest and continue bullish uptrend. 3. We can push lower, and break area of support to continue retracement leg which is bearish. Lets see what happens!
AUDUSD projection As AUDUSD hit a huge dip during the month of March 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak, we are now seeing it recover itself we are over currently over %50 recovery on its dramatic drop from March 2020. The month is now April we have seen market flow switch to a retracement on the daily, market structure however has not been broken, we might be retracing back to daily resistance. We are creating higher highs and higher lows, we now find ourselfs in a higher low, respecting trend line, creating a H1 Quasimodo, creating a break of market flow, retest and possible follow through. It is Sunday April 19th, which means that the market can go anyway, as it would always be that result but our job as traders is to piece together a high peobability trade and take it. This is my high probability trade. #AUDUSD #COVID-19 #PRE-RECESSION
GBPUSD AnalysisUsing the 4 hour & 1 Hour charts. I can see towards the tail end of last week the market started consolidating. However, we saw throughout the week a strong bullish trend, as hope around COVID-19 restrictions easing and economic hope, I believe we will see some strength in the Sterling. Using technical indicators, the Stochastic is showing the market is overbought and therefore reinforces a Sell position. You can see from my chart the Support & Resistance zones. What do you think?
New York Coronavirus Cases at 70% of Peak LevelNew York Coronavirus cases at 70% of Peak, but are still above the 1 standard deviation Upper Bollinger Band
US New Coronavirus Cases near Peak recorded levelsNew Coronavirus Cases in US hover around Peak recorded levels
South Korea New Coronavirus Cases at 4% of PeakNew Coronavirus Cases in South Korea are at 4% of the Peak rolling average
SPX 2020: CoviDebt Reset. History says markets should fall >50%?
2020 The Great CoviDebt Reset sees markets initially drop by -36%.
FED pushes market back up by +33%, right near the monthly 20 EMA level. CB intervention continues to push markets higher which further widens the gap between the markets and economic reality.
The last two major pullbacks during the 2001 tech bubble and 2008 global financial crisis saw >50% declines but 2020 has only seen a drop of 36%, thanks to the FED yet again stepping in with the largest stimulus in history. However, onlynusing the >50% declines in 2001 and 2008 as reference points implies we could see an additional 25% leg down from the March 2020 lows.
Will the FED win in restoring total confidence in the face of creating the largest spread between markets and reality or will history intervene and see a >50% decline?
Weekly Preview: Good News Keep Coming!The market is coming back to its previous bullish trend, two proves of that:
- Nasdaq is already in neutral territory YTD
- Volatility is around 48%, well below its peaks
- Some companies, specially American technology are regaining ground effectively sooner than expected which is also good news.
The two pillars within this environment that are working are two:
1./ Central bank aid (this was expected to work immediately)
Stimulus from central banks and governments has brought confidence to the market
2./ Covid-19 numbers
Trend of better daily numbers of new cases are consolidating and some businesses are starting to reopen
- Bearing in mind this, the market doesn’t react to an economy, it foresees what the economy will do and act base on that.
Current Context:
March was harmful, April is better with consolidation taking place. Even times are going better than expected with numbers improving faster than expected. Again, Nasdaq has already recovered those YTD loses and this is important because normally it brings the rest of indexes with it. First the DOJ, which represents more classic companies with high dividends, and after Europe.
Then, short term facts are being positive too.
1. Gilead Sciences has reported successful treatment of Covid patients and can be a ray of hope.
2. American attitude, they are focused in reopening the economy and that creates big expectations.
To finish, we´ll have some economic indicators with more government meetings that will still bring more confident to the market and strengthen this faster than expected recovery.
Turkey New Coronavirus Cases EscalatingNew Confirmed Coronavirus Cases in Turkey continue to increase at alarming levels. COVID-19 Peak Levels are still yet to come.
Italian New Coronavirus Cases down to 67% of Peak levelNew confirmed Coronavirus cases across Italy are slowly heading in the right direction, currently down to 67% of the Peak 7-day rolling average.
Spain Coronavirus Cases bounce back up to near Peak levelsNew Coronavirus cases across Spain have bounced back up to near Peak levels (91%).
New Zealand Coronavirus Cases down to 20% of PeakNew confirmed Coronavirus cases are down to 20% of Peak 7-day simple moving average across New Zealand