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2019

Market Overview- Navigate through the unknown BOTTOM territoryMadness cannot even begin to describe what three major indexes went through the past few weeks. Fastest 30% drop ever, followed by equally insane three consecutive days of massive gain last week. It felt like the whole stock market was going through the crypto type of rollercoaster ride! One question remains in every investor's mind... Have we reached the bottom yet? Macro perspective- *QE to infinity with no limits, now includes the municipal and corporate bond in addition to treasury and MBS *1 trillion federal deficit, but the growth was still below 2 percent *2 Trillion relief package that forbids stock buyback and will be enforced with strict oversight *Economic contraction is forecasted to be 15 percent or more in the second quarter *Unemployment is projected to rise to 30 percent in a few months *Q2-Q4 earning will likely be severely impacted In nutshells, the underlying economic condition is already weakened with the crippling amount of national debts. The fact that Fed intends to increase its balance sheet with no limits tells me how desperate Fed is and how dire the economy is. Historical perspective- 11 recessions in the past ended up lasting between 12 to 18 months. Only one of them lasted 2 months. Furthermore, never before has the bottom been reached in the beginning of the recession. Of course, some people believe that this market recession will not last long because unlike the 2008 crisis which was caused by the overheated housing market, this one was caused by the sudden panic sell driven by the external circumstance. Technical perspective- All three major indexes went down around 35% from their Feb. high during this unprecedented crisis, indicating that the market is already in the recession mode. However, Dow has since then bounced back strongly and is currently up around 20% from its low. Technically speaking, the market is not officially in the recession until all three major indexes stay 20% below their highs for at least a month or two. However, It seems that it may not be the case if the current rally continues which will send the Dow back above its 20% drop from the February high and possibly test the resistance lvl at SMA200. Only time will tell. If the market is not at the bottom yet, how much lower can three major indexes go? 50% low from their Feb. high would send three major indexes way blow their 2017 price lvl. If such a scenario plays put, it will send a shockwave throughout the market and exacerbates the already deteriorated investor confidence. I would not pay too much attention to the technical lvl until the VIX goes back down to around 30-40 lvl. During the rare, panic-sell frenzy, anything is possible. We have already witnessed the fastest 30% drop and the biggest 3 day rally in the history so be ready and prepare for anything to happen. Market sentiment- Market sentiment is everything at this point. The impeccable timing of 2 trillion relief bill seemed to have cancelled out the effect of the record high unemployment filing claims last Thursday. Even when U.S infected # exceeded that of china last Friday, the market did not react too drastically. Moreover, Yesterday's announcement of April 30 lockdown extension did nothing but boosting up the market today. Perhaps, the Covid-19 fear is already priced in or the selling pressure is exhausted? Covid-19 progress- The catalyst that summoned up the financial storm will also be the one that ends it. The exponential growth must be stopped before any sense of normalcy can return. By all metrics, growth factor, infected per 1 mil, death per 1 mil, positive %,, # in serious/critical condition, recovery rate, fatality rate all indicate the somber news that the exponential growth is still climbing. Let's take a look at the projection in the website below covid19.healthdata.org Keep in mind that the projection is based on the assumption that most people will follow the social-distancing practice and ventilators will not run out (Ford, GM and Tesla have set out to produce more ventilators). According to the projection, if we don't get the second wave of infection because of the lax lockdown rule or the undetected virus carrier coming from countries that have not yet experienced the outbreak, we should expect everything to return to certain degree of normalcy and economy to begin the recovering process in May. When that happens, investors may not rush back into the stock market in droves, but it could at least serve as the crystal clear sign to investors that the worst part is over.
DJ:DJI
by Libratus
possible Test to 5.5K (bitcoin) Hi , it's clear that COVID 19 has affected also Crypto market especially Bitcoin , let's see why i forecast bitcoin price will go at least to 5.5K 1/fake breakout to 6.4k in the begining of the week 2/ strong rejection to resistance 6.4 k 3/ very strong resistance line who has been support line last few weeks 4/this line is very important psychologically for traders in two time : the first before decline to 3k the second before we go to 13K 5/descending line (green) could be respected , that's why i forecasted 5.5k , but let's don't forget that we are extreme situation when normal condtions don't apply stay at home and have nice day
Short
by ZiedDhibi
3
Global Recession Price Targets Recession In the UK we came to the end of the financial year and at this point the end to the first quarter for the global economy. Governments around the world will now declare that GDP our economic production has decreased, and unemployment has increased. We’ve seen all major central banks update fiscal and monetary policy, the Fed has announced a 6.2 trillion stimulus package. S&P 500 has seen the most significant downturn in history. What can we expect over the next coming months? The main catalyst for this recession is global debt, housing debt, energy industry debt, household consumer debt, and corporation debt. This is the everything bubble. It has been further fueled by COVID-19, The pandemic has caused Global quarantines and lockdowns. Consumers are being told to stay at home for a period of 2 to 3 weeks at which point the infection will be reviewed and the quarantine assessed. Consumers and not driving the vehicles this is reducing demand for oil and gas. Consumers spending habits have reduced significantly emphasizing a decline in economic activity. Non-essential Businesses have been closed indefinitely this has had a knock-on effect on people’s jobs and employment. Many are waiting for government funding packages to provide financial support during self-isolation and unemployment. We can see an extortionate amount of government spending with no max parameters in place. Over the next few months we will have to see how cases increase and how companies will be affected we will need to see how cold it is treated and how effective the quarantining is. These quarantines are not a one off I have been implemented to slow the spread of the infection and once they have lifted and the infection reemerges, they will be forced again to Quarantine. Businesses and executives know that this will occur and so will be hesitant to open or continue their business operations, they will be on likely to begin recruitment and re-employment because of this. This has a significant knock-on affect the economic activity. Governments suppressing the spread of infection in order to curve the peak demand on to healthcare services. Health officials are waiting for a vaccine to be developed or for herd immunity, both of these can take many years. All of these factors contribute towards fear uncertainty and doubt in the general public. This is setting up to be a depression, the great depression 2.0 What does this mean for SNP 500 index? For me look at the 2001.com bubble price fell 50% in the bear market. In the 2008 housing crisis the price sale 58%. If we continue this pattern into our current circumstances from our all-time high of around US$3400, we are likely to fall50% again placing the S&P 500 index at 1700, this is the decline of over 1700 points. If we use the all-time highs from 2001 and 2008, We can conclude a resistance for our current downturn of around US$1500. We need support, we can see support at US$1800 in 2014 and 2016 Low’s. And this gives us are likely target price range for this current recession, however if we breach and full-blown resistance of US$1500 I’m confident that we will reach loads of US$800 this sort of drop and contraction in the overall economy will be defined as a depression and it will have significant adverse effects on the globe. Each and every financial crisis governments have attempted to stimulate the economy and we see a short-term correction from the stimulation. By the long time it doesn’t help realistically the sessions depressions and the business cycles will continue to occur because the global economy is built on continuous quanitivie easing and liquidity injections. I hate to be so pessimistic. However, there is optimism for we investors Have the greatest opportunity to enter the markets of multiple industries exceptionally low prices and we will likely see corrections up to all-time high of 2019 US$3,400. Realistically this timeframe is likely to be up to 7 to 12 years until we even get close to that price again. Could we be in the midst of the financial systems collapse?!
TVC:SPXShort
by H_Woodrow
4
Stimulus rally hits $2,490 target, more downside coming? Last night ~1 am the Senate passed the ]Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act or the CARES Act and this boosed overnight tading to my $2,490 retrace target. Since then it is down ~1.1% and with as swath of bad news coming (US unemployment claims data, consumer confidence, and ISM PMI's) and increased lockdowns across the nation I beleive that S&P will continue on its trajectory down. See the note from Richard Curtin the director of the survey of consumers at the University of Michigan where he states "The first step is to recognize the immense threat that the coronavirus has for the welfare of the nation. Comparison to prior recessions, even the Great Recession, fail to correctly account for the loss of life let alone the very high eventual economic costs." I continue to stand by my privous note that $2T won't be enough. It will most likely cost more than WWII, the most expensive war in history, at $4T (today's dollars). Price target is $2,175 (-9.9%) to get back to recent lows.... This will be updated as more information is available. Stay Safe... just_a_guy Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice. From linked post published yesterday The SPX was up 9.38% on 3/24 on the expectation that Senate will pass ~$2T stimulus bill soon. Any market should rise when approximalty 10% of the countries GDP will be infused into the economy. Unfortunately, my current thesis suggests that ~$2T won't be enough, and it may take multiples of this to slow the economic collapse. Technically, there are two retracement points that look good for an entry to the next leg down. The first at $2,490 (+1.7%) and the second at $2,565 (+4.8%). I believe this techical set up with the upcoming fundamentals will play out very well to the downside. Caution: if SPX rises above $2,616 then I would call this opportunity invalid. My expectation is that one or both of the technical points will be completed before April 3rd. To be very specific I am currnetly thinking they will reach one or both of the targets before the market opens on the 26th of March which is when the US unemployment claims data comes out, which I believe will be a startling number, one for the ages (or the following week). On April 1st we will see the ISM manufacutring index which should print one of the lowest of all time, maybe ever... until April reports. This will present a stark relization to the market and the country that COVID-19 is much more of a problem then the Gov't is currently stating. I don't believe Trump's quote from today's Fox interview where he stated "I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter,". I believe it will be quite the opposite. If I am wrong and the US isn't shut down like China or Italy by April 12th then GOD help us as it will only get worse. Stay Safe... just_a_guy Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by just_a_guy
2
DJI surge and crashI expect the dji to see a surge due to the CARES act (stimulus bill) passing the senate and going up for vote in the house. Speculators will buy in hopes it will pass all the way through and once it does, there will be a hype in the news and the stock market. It will be short lived though as the stimulus bill is merely keeping companies afloat rather than increasing earnings and whatnot. Investors will quickly come to realize that their shares are scarily overpriced and dump them as cases of coronavirus grow. A lower low will be established and I can only hope a medical breakthrough solidifies a floor. No news of a treatment/cure is expected until end of april. So until then, expect a crash. Make sure you scoop up shares while we are in this state though. Everyone will be scared and shouting, "SELL SELL SELL, THE SKY IS FALLING" but that's when the smart investors buy. Best of luck
TVC:DJI
by AndrewFogel
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS TO THE MOON!!!In about an hour 7:30 CST we are going to see something we have never seen before.... With the COVID-19 starting to take significant hold of the U.S. economy I believe this week we will see a massive rise in unemployment insurance claims that will translate to massive unemployment. My current estimates are anywhere from four to eight million if you use Canada as a proxy. This is 5 to 10 times the largest known weekly claims data (700K) and is a direct result of the precautions made for COVID-19. I don't believe this number is anywhere close to being "priced in" and will take the market. Why? As of the February's Employment Situation Report the total unemployment rate was 3.5% with 5.787M people unemployed and 158.759M employed for a total civilian labor force of 164.546M. If you input my most conservate estimate of 4M newly unemployed people, developed off Canada's already published data, that would shift unemployed people to 9.787M. Assuming there isn't a large shift in the civillian labor force, that would change the unemployement rate from ~3.5% to ~5.9% in effectively one week. If that trend continues, as it usually does, we would see unemployement definantely surpassing the 2009 GFC of 10% and we could reach or even surpass the peak from the Great Depression of 24.9%. I know that there has been a few articles on this printed over the past couple of weeks but most of my "non trading" friends weren't even thinking about the level of unemployment COVID-19 will cause. Also when this news hits new outlets it will make every working american pause, take notice, and become fearful that they too may lose their job. I think this because it is how I feel and it is a real possibility I lose my job like many other hard working people. UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS Estimates for 3/26 4-8 million Last week 3/19 281,000 Report Link Stay safe.... just_a_guy Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
FRED:ICSALong
by just_a_guy
2
Entry level for S&P500 ($1705-$2350)Many countries are releasing stimulus right now increasing Singapore. I think it will help boost the economy slightly. However, based on Fib retracement, a good entry level for S&P500 ($1705-$2350). A Fibonacci retracement is a term used in technical analysis that refers to areas of support or resistance. Fibonacci retracement levels use horizontal lines to indicate where possible support and resistance levels are. Each level is associated with a percentage. 50% to 61.8% are usually good indicators for a good entry point whenever there's a retracement downwards after a bullish run.
TVC:SPX
by Trader_hao
NIO- Long-term bargain price is within the grasp. Don't miss it!Please click like and follow me if enjoy my posts! :) Due to the whole market meltdown, NIO has retraced back to Fib 0.786 lvl early this week. However, it has since then rebounded strongly and is currently fighting the resistance lvl. Barring the continuing worsened market condition, I believe NIO's distribution cycle is nearly over. The current bargain price is hard to pass up despite the unfavorable external environment. The prudent approach would be to determine the total amount you want to put in, then use the pyramid method to scale in slowly as the price moves down lower. I would grab my cheap shares of NIO if the price falls inside the buy zone and set the tight stop loss if the price falls below the buy zone. *Dow, Nasdaq100, S&P500 and S&P400 are all still below SMA 200. SPX 50SMA/200SMA crossover seems imminent. *Futures market seems indecisive. Dow and S&P500 are up while Nasdaq is down. *GDP final and initial claim filing figures will come out tomorrow. Both reports may have the negative impact on the stock market tomorrow. *Manufacturing related economic indictors may have the impact on NIO so it is worth to pay attention to them as they come out. *COVID-19 growth factor slows down for the first time since Mar.11. Yesterday's growth factor was 0.86 (Below one means the exponential growth slows down) DYOR! Not an investment advice.
NYSE:NIOLong
by Libratus
1
Short US marketUS cases climbed by 13,000 to 68,000 cases (stats from worldometer site) already and it seems like the rally 2 days ago just took a small turn downwards. I still think it will continue heading downwards till either vaccine is released or when the numbers are better controlled. Because looking at the growth rate, it doesn't look like its slowing down and many countries have started partial shutdowns and I think the impact on their economy will be huge but the real effect on the economy can only be seen at a later stage.
CShort
by Trader_hao
The COVID virus may come back in 3 waves (based on Spanish flu)Please note I am using the TradingView Confirmed TOTAL COVID data line and then projecting how I think COVID will progress using the Spanish Flu as precedence - I am also assuming there will be no vaccine at least till next summer: I have tried to keep this analysis/projection simple using two estimates: 1) Looking at how the Spanish flu happened in 3 waves and the time frame in which that happened; 2) Looking at the direction of the exponential increase in confirmed cases globally.
C
by arigolden
4
Confirmed Corona Recovery : Deaths ratios.Comparing COVID-19 CONFIRMED, DEATHS, RECOVERED Ratios per Country and time of infection, and recovery rates vs time exposed, known preventive actions to maybe find other factors that might explain some of the more rapid recovery rates or how to prevent a high death count.. Iran (IR) has a VERY high RECOVERY ratio. Confirmations similar to others. While death count is > France not below average? Germany (DE) Has a much lower death count compared to France (FR) other stats are similar, so what happened here?
C
by KrakendeKnaken
2
MSFT, 25.3.2020Hi, traders. My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 6 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest. Short description of analysis: After yesterday's growth today I expect a slight consolidation, the market will gain energy with the help of the FED, and so will have room to rise until the next resistance. This happens after Microsoft teamed up with the WHO to introduce a hackathon about COVID-19. Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades. AND Chceck my new twitter :)
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Lucas_Sochulak