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2019

EURUSD, Week 9 is a reset, Week 10 to drop.EURUSD moved the opposite direction of what was expected in our week 8 analysis. I did not expect it and I was trapped badly. However, in week 9, it seems to have completed a three-level bullish trend and completed the week with a double top on the H1 chart. Getting trapped in the wrong analysis is no joke. It took a good 15% off my overall equity, combined with all the losses of other pairs. Fortunately, the profits from past weeks trading acted as a cushion against the bad trade management of mine. This week's analysis seems to point towards a drop for next week because of the full three-level bullish move made in week 9. It ended the week with a double top, and looking at the day chart, it seems to point towards a drop in week 9 as well. I will be monitoring on Monday to decide what would be the direction, but currently, it is short for me. I am expecting a drop of a minimum of 2 levels for week 10 and hopefully, it reaches that level that I am looking for. I hope all traders to continue with a profitable Week 9 ahead. Please share your thoughts below, like and follow me for my weekly analysis on EURUSD , GBPUSD , USDJPY and USDCHF!
Short
by xunnobi
EURUSD, uni direction in week 8, can it reversal in Week 9?EURUSD, together with GBPUSD and USDCHF moved accordingly to our analysis in week 8 and ending Week 8 strong. I hope this helps all you traders out there to make some profit, and I hope it give you guys a good week as written on my week 8 title. =) I did not follow my own trading plan and decided to trade with a longer term perspective, which lead to a issue I faced. It caused me about 5% losses to my overall equity in my managed fund and about 9 false trade to my signal followers, and yes I am mad. But it is ok, I will re focus back to what works in Week 9 again. The analysis of EURUSD week 9's movement did showed that the bull seems to be weakening and I have also identified a level 3 bullish zone which signaled that the EURUSD could be coming in with a bearish move instead in week 9. The area to the right of the M that was not boxed, has also presented a M shape. So you can also look at the analysis this way, the box area with a M on top can show a high/low reset, meaning a trend reset, followed by a M, which is the reversal pattern coinciding with level 3 bullish zone. So both analysis pointed me towards shorting the pair, and I am following suit for week 9. I hope all traders to continue with a profitable Week 9 ahead. Please share your thoughts below, like and follow me for my weekly analysis on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and UISDCHF!
Short
by xunnobi
GBPUSD, Week 8 as expected, Week 9 can be differentGBPUSD moved as how we expected in Week 8, finishing a 3 levels of bullish move. It was not bad, just that instead of long, I shorted it due to the opening gap on Monday. I hope not many does the same as me. I did not follow my own trading plan and decided to trade with a longer term perspective, which lead to a issue I faced. It caused me about 5% losses to my overall equity in my managed fund and about 9 false trade to my signal followers, and yes I am mad. But it is ok, I will re focus back to what works in Week 9 again. Looking at the analysis, I do expect the GBPUSD to finish off lower in Week 9 as compared to week 8, perhaps reaching a level 2 bearish zone. The break away from the level 3 reversal zone is a fast one on Friday and ending Week 8 in the zone of level 1 bullish zone. I am holding on to 3 positions of the short and will continue to hold on to it till the level 2 bearish zone before I decide to exit of continue holding. I hope all traders to continue with a profitable Week 9 ahead. Please share your thoughts below, like and follow me for my weekly analysis on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and UISDCHF!
Short
by xunnobi
USDJPY, trapped in Week 8, Week 9 blurredUSDJPY did not make any major movement in Week 8, contrary to our analysis made in Week 7. While it did not make big upwards move, it seems to have tried making failed downward price pattern. I did not follow my own trading plan and decided to trade with a longer term perspective, which lead to a issue I faced. It caused me about 5% losses to my overall equity in my managed fund and about 9 false trade to my signal followers, and yes I am mad. But it is ok, I will re focus back to what works in Week 9 again. The failed attempt is most visible on Friday, when a double bottom was spotted, and it only make about 30 pips down, and it came back up again and close the week and Friday higher. It is suggesting a strong bullish power still maintaining in the trend and with no big movement, we can expect Week 9 to have some explosive move through the week. I am in the view that USDJPY will continue its bullish move with one or two explosive upward movement of 50 to 100 pips next week. I am comfortable to trade USDJPY next week, so prolly I will be entering smaller long position in Week 9 when the market opens. I hope all traders to continue with a profitable Week 9 ahead. Please share your thoughts below, like and follow me for my weekly analysis on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and UISDCHF!
Long
by xunnobi
USDCHF, Week 8 as expected, Week 9 reversal?USDCHF move exactly as expected from our analysis on week 7. Finishing the week with a volatile Friday. However, I changed something to the week 7 analysis to reflect a more accurate trend movement. In our Week 7 analysis, I actually used a H&S to reflect the level 3 reversal zone. But after considering the move this week, I decided to change to better reflect the 3 bearish trend movement as I analyzed the Week 8 to end with a reversal zone, which coincided with a level 3 bearish zone. I did not follow my own trading plan and decided to trade with a longer term perspective, which lead to a issue I faced. It caused me about 5% losses to my overall equity in my managed fund and about 9 false trade to my signal followers, and yes I am mad. But it is ok, I will re focus back to what works in Week 9 again. Currently USDCHF seems to finish the full double bottom reversal shape, and I am waiting for it to break the high of the level 3 reversal zone. I am hopeful that the price will resume a bullish movement in Week 9. I hope all traders to continue with a profitable Week 9 ahead. Please share your thoughts below, like and follow me for my weekly analysis on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and UISDCHF!
Long
by xunnobi
USDCHF, week 7's long tail for week 8 reversal?USDCHF moved inline with our expectation in week 6, however, a little surprise came along. However, if you have been going long with USDCHF, you would have made a good profit and stay relatively comfortable for the whole week 7. In week 7, I traded all the 4 symbols I analyzed here in tradingview, and I made about 7% profit in my PAMM managed fund and I hope my signal subscribers are happy with the results as well. If you have a bigger leverage and risk appetite, 7% would be minute as compared to your gain in week 7, I hope you make a profit from week 7's trading. On the Monday of Week 7, USDCHF made a surprising upward move and ended it off lower than the starting point (hourly candle), that left a 90 pips upward tail. I didnt seek to find out what caused the spike, all I knew was that the opportunity to enter has presented itself. I went long, and exited for about 35 pips on that day itself after I spotted a consolidation. (the consolidation did happen and lasted till Tuesday) The reason why I entered long was due to the analysis of Week 6 and a seemingly week reversal price pattern that was spotted as a bearish level in week 6. Holding till the end of the week would have yield great returns, however, it was not my habit and trading style to do that. In the analysis of Week 7, we saw the formation of a classic H&S, which fell in line with our bullish zone 3, which would typically see price reverse at that zone. Thus, we are expecting a downward move in the coming week 8 for USDCHF. For the coming week, I am most comfortable to trade GBPUSD, EURUSD, followed by USDJPY then USDCHF. If you have any thoughts on USDCHF's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
USDJPY, quick reverse in week 7, outlook for week 8USDJPY moved as analyzed in week 7. A strong upward movement which ended on Thursday and followed by a start of bearish trend through the end of week 7. For traders who long the pair would be delighted to see their account increase in the first half of week 7, however, the signal to short is quite fast, even though I caught it myself, I exited before the day ended on Thursday. In week 7, I traded all the 4 symbols I analyzed here in tradingview, and I made about 7% profit in my PAMM managed fund and I hope my signal subscribers are happy with the results as well. If you have a bigger leverage and risk appetite, 7% would be minute as compared to your gain in week 7, I hope you make a profit from week 7's trading. Looking at the analysis of USDJPY, we would expect them to break down to bearish zone 2, currently, the price is staying the bearish zone 1. However, we are not too sure where is the high of the zone yet, so I am looking forward to a candlestick combination which would signal me to short USDJPY. In week 8, I am expecting USDJPY to at least land itself in the area of bearish zone 2 before completing the week. However, stay flexible and mindful of the changes, if it is not according to plan, please exit. We live to fight another day! If you have any thoughts on USDJPYs movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
EURUSD, not a good week 7, expect a good week 8In Week 7, EURUSD can be seen as a little confusing to traders. In Week 6, we expected a continuation of the bear trend, but we only see EURUSD keeps pushing and coming back to the zone of the previous zone. That could lead us to think that if the break of the zone has failed and instead stay long or stay out. I would like to think that it is ok to stay out in such an environment because, at first glance, it is a bit difficult to separate them out. In week 7, I traded all the 4 symbols I analyzed here in tradingview, and I made about 7% profit in my PAMM managed fund and I hope my signal subscribers are happy with the results as well. If you have a bigger leverage and risk appetite, 7% would be minute as compared to your gain in week 7, I hope you make a profit from week 7's trading. In the first half of week 7, it should be easy for traders to extract profit out of the bearish move of EURUSD. In the later part of the week, I started asking myself if it is going to reverse, and on Friday, I made up my mind that it might continue a downward trend instead. Like GBPUSD, towards the end of Friday, it made an explosive move upwards, which I stayed out as I decided to rest myself. As we can see from the analysis of week 7, it did complete 3 levels of a bearish zone, however, each zone is close to another which would be the reason why traders might be confused over the status of the trend. The decisive upward move on Friday should clear the doubts that we should have, and we can expect an upward movement in week 8. I would expect the pair to at least reach a level 2 bullish zone in week 8, and I am quite excited about it. I would be using the same entry plan as mentioned in my analysis of GBPUSD, to minimise the potential losses. If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
GBPUSD, a good week 7, where will week 8 goes?In Week 7, GBPUSD made a wonderful continuation of the established bearish trend. In week 6, the bearish trend rested at bearish zone 2, which leaves us halfway through the trend. In preceding week 7, we see it completed the whole cycle of a bearish trend. I am excited about the new bull trend in week 8. In week 7, I traded all the 4 symbols I analyzed here in tradingview, and I made about 7% profit in my PAMM managed fund and I hope my signal subscribers are happy with the results as well. If you have a bigger leverage and risk appetite, 7% would be minute as compared to your gain in week 7, I hope you make a profit from week 7's trading. GBPUSD made consistent and predictable movement in week 7, until the hours before closing on Friday. I was actually shorting before the rise, and I exited the trade with minimal losses, I think my subscribers who are looking at the trade with me must be worried. Shorting about 1 hour after I exited my short trades, it made an explosive rise, but I am not aware, as I went to rest. Its a missed trade for me and a good example of how someone can mistake a reversal for a continuation of the trend. Moving on with the analysis, we can see that the rise on Friday consists about 100 pips, and I would say that its strong and there was not much seller movement on Friday, probably they are busy buying now, and not prepared to sell in the near term. A reversal pattern at level 3 bearish trend has been spotted and completed, so we would expect the price to rise to at least a level 2 bullish zone in week 8. A lot can happen in week 8 to reach that zone, my plan would be to enter a buy after the market opens and slowly build my positions. If the market continue to shift downwards, at least I can exit with minimal losses. Account protection is more important than anything else in FX trading. With that, I end my summarised GBPUSD analysis for week 8. I hope you guys will continue to stay profitable in week 8! If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
GBPUSD, week 6 as expected, ready for week 7!GBPUSD made a great bearish movement in week 6. It should provide short traders with awesome profit. Together with my entries in EURUSD, it enabled me to make an increase of about 8% in my account equity. Not too bad in my view. In week 6, we see a break down to bearish level zone 2 and it ended off staying in that zone on Friday. What would be expected might be a consolidation then a continue bearish break. It just one of the possibility that I am expecting it to happen, so if it doesn't come as expected, I would just stay out and wait and reassess the market again. I hope all traders continue to make a good profit in week 7! If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
EURUSD, week 6 as expected, can week 7 remains? A strong bearish move for EURUSD, its low risk and high returns. For all traders who shorted it, congrats! I personally missed the initiate movement of the pair, however, I managed to get in together with GBPUSD, which see a growth of about 8% for week 6 in my overall equity. For week 5's analysis, we expected a bearish move for week 6, which happened in the end. However, even though the move was persistent, I am not entire confident that it would continue to do so for the whole of week 7. I am expecting some range movements in week 7 or week 8. Therefore, even though the overall outlook still remains bearish, the very short term movement might not provide an opportunity to short just yet. I hope all traders continue to make awesome profit in the coming week 7! If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
2
USDCHF, a move that didn't last, week 6 would be different.USDCHF has moved quite nicely, according to previous analysis, showing persistent in the bearish trend, and went on to level 2 bearish zone. However, in week 5, it seems to halt and change the direction. I am heavy in shorting USDCHF, and I ended with about 4% overall equity loss but was helped by profits from other pairs which ended my January with negative 0.4%. Thankfully, USDCHF did give enough time for me to review and rethink about the direction, it does it over the course of week 5. If not I would have achieved much higher losses. As I highlighted in on the graph, there is a big price swipe which breaks below the low of level 2 bearish zone and went back up breaking the high of the level 3, reversal price pattern. I read this as an action of reset because it reset the high of the bearish trend and it also creates a new low in the bearish trend. Following the reset, we see a reversal price pattern, a double bottom and followed by a price ending in the zone of the area of the reversal zone. The analysis gave me comfort and confidence that in the mid-term trend, the price would rise. I would expect the coming Monday or Tuesday to have an explosive upward movement of the price. With my current strategy, I would expect it to complete a 3 level of rising before heading down. So come Monday, I would be entering long together with short in EURUSD. I am more confident with the direction of EURUSD, USDCHF, and GBPUSD. For USDJPY, I would like to seek more confirmation with the coming week 6 movement. If you have any thoughts on USDCHFs movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
USDJPY, reversal pattern in week 5, but will it reverse?USDJPY has not moved much in week 5, it seems to be range-bound for the time being after the flash drop a couple of weeks back. It is natural for the price to go into smaller and smaller range consolidation after a large move, so we might be in it currently. If we are going into a smaller range bound, two questions could be asked regarding the current situation, 1. How long will it last? 2. How wide will the range be? 1. How long will it last? Personally, this is a question that at this moment, according to my strategy and analysis, provides no answer to it. It depends on the market and surrounding global events. Even though I personally would like the mid-term trend (Hourly Chart) to resume, but it does not look like it. It made an H&S pattern in week 5, but the rise after the NFP on Friday in week 5 does not give me the comfort and confidence that it will continue its drop. If we look at the H1 chart, we can see a grouping of 5 small-bodied candles. If we go in deeper to M15, the 5 candles will show itself as a seemingly inverted U shape, which is considered a reversal pattern to me. If we look at the Day Chart of USDJPY, we can see that Friday ended strong with a bullish candle that undoes the week 5's effort of bearish move. It pointed slightly towards a strong bullish power, coupled with the long tail that occurs during the Flash Drop, it is hinting a strong market bull now. When we look at the Weekly Chart, we can notice that the opening price and closing price of week 5 are very near, which tells us that its consolidating and developing a possible range. So even though on H1, we see an H&S pattern, when combined with the D1 and W1 charts, it is not so rosy for bear after all. We can monitor what happens on the H1 chart for week 6, it can give an opportunity to enter long/short depending on the candlestick combination, however, it must be entered with a strong risk management plan. 2. How wide will the range be? My personal view on this would be between the high of the H&S pattern and low of the flash crash. The market has clearly moved into an upward sloping range bound, so depending on your method of analysis, you might say that a wedge or flag has been formed, but either way, with a strong risk management, no matter how wrong you are, it will not be detrimental to your trading account. Conclusion Even though my H1 analysis pointed me towards a bearish trend, I am cautious of it due to the rise on Friday and the overall view from D1 and W1 chart. I am going to watch what happens on week 6 to determine my next course of action. As I am a mid-term trader, trading against the D1 and W1's direction is ok for me, as I do not hold multi-week positions. If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
EURUSD, Strong rise in week 5, strong drop in week 6?EURUSD made a strong rise in week 5, it raised from Monday to Wednesday, and only to die down on Thursday after seeing a reversal pattern on the M15 chart and follow by a second confirmation on Friday during the NFP which completes the reversal pattern on the H1 chart. EURUSD completed its three levels of rise and ended week 6 with a complete bullish level 3 zone with a reversal price pattern, it points us towards a drop for week 6. When I look at the Day Chart of EURUSD, I found that Friday did not move much but has given an indication of an impending bearish trend. From the Weekly Chart of EURUSD, it seems a big price movement might be coming, even though I am unsure if it will happen in week 6 or not, but I will be waiting to short EURUSD. Most likely, on Monday I will be entering the market with short positions since the H1 analysis points us towards completion of level 3 bullish zone coupled with a reversal price pattern, the D1 chart suggested a week bull and W1 chart suggested an impending big price movement. That being said, stay flexible and open-minded and I hope all traders continue to make a good profit from the market. If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
2
GBPUSD, week 5 price pattern, a clear route for week 6GBPUSD has finally made a reversal pattern as we see on the H1 chart. It seems like the price has overextended for a while and finally, we see some hint that it would be moving down for the near future. In week 4, GBPUSD has made a small consolidation followed by a final push upwards which lead to the reversal price pattern. It then quickly break below reversal zone in one to two days and followed to close in a new bearish zone 1. It was noted that during the NFP, the price was not as volatile as people might think it is, and the price movement was very controlled, no surprises, no big movement. In the Daily Chart of the pair, it was noted that Friday ended with a bearish candle, and a short upward tail and the weekly chart showed a bearish candle with a small upward tail. The combination of a reversal price pattern at level 3, and the bearish candle observed at D1 and W1 candle gave the analysis a strong overview that a bearish week 6 is waiting. That being said, things can change, so stay open-minded and flexible in our trades. I hope all you traders continue to make good returns! If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
Beginning bull market? End of the bear market for Crypto? Hello again everyone! hope you all had a great new year. Despite a whole year of a bad run, I want to congratulate everyone who is still hanging in there. According to wall street cheat sheet, I would say we are officially in the depression phase. this is the final stage of the bear market before the natural cycle flips. In this post i will go in depth why I believe this. 1. This high lighted green area represents the bull market in 2013 with gains up to 52732% and the bull run lasting 763 days. The up trend in 2013 was very aggressive and severe but did not last very long. Pricing started from $2.33 to $1211 2. In early 2014 a correction was due, losing approximately 87% and lasting up to 413 days. Pricing from $1165 back to $147. After breaking the aggressive and unexpected uptrend, $147 was lowest low for 2014 bear market. 3. The market structure changed and was the start of a bullish up trend. In 2017 the bull rally reached $20k. In percentage, there was a 13690% which took about 1078 days to stop. This high lighted green area lasted longer compared to 2013's bull run but was also less aggressive. the trend lines also showed less aggression. 4. After $20k, the bear market was active again without the next high being a higher high also lasting for the entire 2018. In the time of writing this post bitcoin is currently in only down 83%~84% from all time high. Price being about $3350. In my opinion, if it follows history and previous stats, excluding world events and fundamentals, there should be another dump to $2600~$2800 (87% just like 2014's bear market) before we finally reach the lowest low. 5. The green area for 2019 bull market should last about 4.19 years being 1523 days in my opinion. With my predictions will hit or be very close to $100k USD, with a 3553% increase, of the 2018's or 2019's bear run lowest low. My formula for these figures are: Percentage formula 52732 (2013's bull market % gains) / 13690 (2017's bull market % gains) = 3.852 is how much % (or up trend aggression was lost) gains decreased by, from 2013 bull to 2017. That means the 2017 bull run lost 52732% by 3.852 With the same logic and calculation 13690 (bull market % gains) / 3.852 (how much uptrend aggression lost) = 3553% gain for 2019 rally 3553% x Lowest Low (Either 3100 or 2600)= 92k or 110k averaging 101k Duration formula 1078 days (2017's bull run) / 763 days (Duration of 2013's bull run) = 1.413 increase 1078 days (2017's bull run) x 1.413 = 1523 days This is how long 2019's bull run will last which is also 4.2 years With this calculation and formula, bitcoin next bull run will last about 1523 days which is the same as 4.2 years pricing ranging 92k~110k and averaging about 101k. 6. The last red area represents we will have will begin around 2023 if my calculations and prediction are correct. Previously, the average bear market duration lasted about a little over 400 days. I am not confident to say how long the next bear market will last because of BTC halvings, mainstream adoption, performance patches, financial implementation. Based on previous historical data. 100 000 (2022's bull run) x 0.7 (2013's & 2017's bull run correction) = approximately $30000 is where a strong support would be, if history repeats. 100 000 (2022's bull run) x 0.87 (Lowest Low of next bear market) = approximately $13000 is where the would be if the formula is still valid. 7. The dotted pink vertical lines is the exact time where BTC halving will happen. I would've drawn 2012 and 2016 but it would of made this graph too messy. All prediction so far is based on 100% technical analysis, patterns, cycles but zero fundamentals, performance upgrades, mainstream and financial adoption. In addition, the falling wedge we are experiencing ends or lands EXACTLY where the halving happens (... coincidence?). Based on supply and demand, BTC becomes more rare and scarce every time a halving occurs, this is all excluding wastage such as dead wallets, lost wallets, insignificant/unworthy transfer dust in many wallets, forgotten private keys. 8. The 3 blue arrows and bright aqua blue circles, are pointing to the lowest low in all 3 bear markets. After the lowest lows, we are considered to be in the beginning of bull markets, at the time of writing this post, bitcoins lowest low was about $3100, which is still only a 83% drop. we are still missing another short squeeze for about 4% before, I am confident to say we are very close to the beginning of another bull run. However, nothing is a 100% so we might already be at the absolute bottom, it is hard to tell as there isn't enough data to backtrack fore reassurance. The supporting trend line for 2017 & 2018 has already been broken. If we dial back to 2013 & 2014, after the supporting trend line broke and the lowest low was identified. The bull rally began. I would suggest less experienced traders should be on standby and wait for confirmation. For every second the support is not broken, we are more and more certain to be heading to a bull run, but do keep in mind, at the same time we are only half way through the falling wedge which is exactly why I am encouraging traders to be on stand by. It can always go lower. Everything posted here is not financial advice. If anyone has any questions please do not hesitate to ask in the comments. I hope you everyone takes a look at my points and maybe you extracted some value from it. Thank you for reading, until next time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoZealot
4
GBPUSD, profitable week 4, how about week 5?GBPUSD moves as expected to week 3's analysis. The pair rise for the whole of week 4 and long traders get rewarded massively with the 200 over pips movement. The whole week should see no surprise for long traders and our analysis has been pointing towards to long movement for week 4. GBPUSD is expected to consolidate for a while in week 5, and bull to regain the movement perhaps in the second half of week 5. There is a clear trend now in GBPUSD and its good to follow it rather than against it. For week 5, it would be good to wait and see if a favorable price can present itself and take a long position for the longer term. I hope you can continue to make a great profit for week 5! If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi