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2019

USDJPY, big move on week 1, 2019USDJPY made a big move during the opening of 2019. I was long and was caught by the massive drop it made during its week 1. This would be an episode which exposed the weakness of my trading strategy which I am going to reinforce in future. Week 1 is a loss for me, with my overall equity fell by about 5%. That's ok, at least I stayed out of USDJPY before the massive 500 pips fall. For my analysis on the pair, I am looking at UISDJPY to make a second touch on the long tail it made on week 1. I would like to see a reversal pattern formed by USDJPY. I would be looking at long for USDJPY after the reversal pattern (Double Bottom) formed. That means for week 2, we are looking at roughly 300 pips fall to finish the second bottom. The market demand that pushes the price back to the close of week 1 did hint on some long demand at the low of week 1. We will need to continue to monitor the movement. I am unsure how long USDJPY will take to form the second bottom, so my strategy would be looking at shorting instead, even though I still maintain an overall long view of this pair. After the double bottom, make sure that you have a candlestick signal or some sort of signal you trust before entering. If you made a loss, its ok, its only week 1 of 2019. If you made a profit, I am happy for you and I hope you can continue your good work. Stay flexible, be open minded and lets go for week 2! If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
Dollar sell continues to gain traction- now bolstered by fundiesAlright folks, I identified a sell zone in dollar (dxy) way back in May 2018. In October we reached the zone (linked), and since then we've kind of stagnated below the sell zone. Now- with the holidays out of the way, my prediction stays true- Dollar will be a sell in 2019. Not only does my method line up with the prediction, but now fundamentals are starting to align as well for the following reasons... 1. Generally, the market doesn't expect the FED to raise rates in 2019 2. BONDS have bolstered this idea, as they've fallen at or below the FED funds rate 3. Trump vehemently supports a weaker dollar 4. Inflation has taken a down turn, however; JOBS have not (this will be key to watch and will give good ideas as to where FED will take rates and if we enter a recession)
TVC:DXYShort
by littleredshiptrading
Happy New Year and Do not get Rekted!Hello dear friends and traders. I hope you weren't rekted this year! In 2018: Speaking in terms of investing and trading, we went through a lot, I am convinced that the most difficult thing for crypto is over and 2019 will pass under phase of recovery. I hope the lessons that the market has taught us in 2018 will not be forgotten, and at the new stage of the market you will be able to confidently accumulate profits. Expectations for 2019: It is likely that from January to March there will be some kind of flat and we will test $ 4400-5600, after which we will move into the accumulation phase between the levels of $1900-3200. I save the probability (up to 10%) of a fast wick in the level of $1200 and a quick recovery in the zone of $1900- $3200 After the accumulation phase, a new rally will come and chances to test levels above $8000 will be high. How to make money in 2019: Average your entry from different levels and correctly spend capital as you reach the levels. Turn on additional assistants - bots will help with additional profit, and signals will help to know about the direction of the market. Remember the market cycles and use the RSI indicator for long-term planning. And the most important moment in the New Year - I wish you to pay attention to controlling your emotions during trading, which will help you accumulate profits in any conditions. Happy New Year and Merry Christmas to all! Best regards, Founder of Blackstone Signals Artem Shevelev
BNC:BLXLong
by ArShevelev
7
USDJPY, start of bull for week 1, 2019USDJPY has made a very predictable and good price movement. Anyone who has shorted it since week 50, would have ended with very good profit! I personally shorted but did not hold it all the way as I mainly day trade, so I got a couple of drop while USDJPY was on its way down. So what can we expect for 2019, week 1? From my analysis, the bear movement of USDJPY should have ended, and a new bull trend on 1H should be coming up. I would expect perhaps week 1 or week 2 of 2019 to make bullish movement, to perhaps finish off the 3 bullish level, and they can continue on to bear and back to bull. Some traders have asked me how long can the trend last? My answer: as long as it last. Even though counting the zones and levels have been fairly accurate to give us an overview of the price movement, this type of analysis does not provide an estimate of how many pips it will go. It is based on price movement and price patterns. Trying to estimate the extent of pips movement is not a strength of my trend analysis. However, from the price movements, we can usually infer how strong the current trend is. For USDJPPY, the bear trend that was showing itself in the H1 chart is quite strong, giving very little space for range movement in the respective zones, it went straight down with no hesitation. so it might take a while for the bull trend to commence because it takes time for traders to accept or to change their positions from bear to bull. That being said, I am in the view that week 1 of 2019 will bring the prices up, at least break up to a bullish level 2 trend. Keep an open mind and be flexible if there is a need to change your positions. That will keep us profitable for the many years to come. If you have any thoughts on USDJPY's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
GBPUSD, moving from 2018 to 2019GBPUSD did not move a lot in week 52 of 2018, it did break upwards to a bullish level 3 zone, however, it wasn't by a lot. Anyone who entered long in this pair would have stayed in the green, however, it might not hit the expectations of many traders. Most of the movement was spent in the range of the level 3 zone. The price movement doesn't seem convinced that it will continue to head upwards, and a reversal pattern was spotted in the level 3 zone, which hinted that the following week 1 of 2019, we might see a new bearish trend. The break from bullish level 1 to level 2 and top level 3 wasn't too fantastic. Each break upwards is just marginally higher than the previous. This did not give me confidence on the upward strength of GBPUSD. On the other hand, GBPUSD hinted that the coming bearish trend will be as strong as the second top of the double top pattern in level 3 zone failed to reach the same high as the first top. I will be building contract short contracts and expecting a drop for week 1 of 2019. However, lets stay flexible and open to market development and trade in the direction of the market, so we can all stay profitable in 2019! If you have any thoughts on GBPUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
EURUSD, analysis for week 52. 2019 is differentEURUSD has successfully pushed up to level 2 for week 52, anyone who long this pair since last week would be able to see a good profit. However, because of their price movement in week 50 to 52, it prompted me to question my outlook on this particular pair using my usual trend following on 1H chart. We have seen this pair went up to a bullish level 2 zone, which usually means that it will continue higher to level 3. However, this time around, I will be looking at EURUSD reversing at level 2. I interpreted the level 1 as a high low rest and a reversal pattern in its level 2 zone. What we see at level 2 is a double top, which will set the reversal stage for 2019, week 1. A double top occurring in a bullish level 2 zone can also continue its upward trend by simply failing to break the previous low formed in zone 2, or creating a flag pattern. I am more towards a reversal this time around because it seems that the weakening of USD is not going to be permanent and a government shutdown occurred in week 52 did not bring this pair a lot higher. So it seems that the overview of EURUSD is more bearish than bullish. Therefore I am giving a higher probability to an upcoming bearish trend in week 1 of 2019. I hope all traders will continue with their good performance and make consistent profit from the market! If you have any thoughts on EURUSD's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Short
by xunnobi
I SPY with my little eyes...Okay, looking back the 200 Weekly MA is a pretty strong support level for the SPY. The last time such support was breached was the 2008 recession. The big question is not really if we will bounce (as we already obviously have), but if the bounce will be sustained. Overall, I think the bounce will fail around the high 250s to 260, because there is a lot of previous support turned resistance. I'm much more confident that this correction will be much greater than the 2011 one, where the SPY rallied off its 200 W MA. Again, watching this level is key. Nothing goes up and down forever, and it's important to have as little bias in reading the chart as possible. I could be wrong of course, but I still think equities are bound for a much greater correction than what we have just witnessed. I'm a strong short at 260 if price gets there.
AMEX:SPY
by mongkok
An analysis of risk sentiment moving into the new year The SP500 has over the recent weeks broken through some well defined support levels and looks set to close red for the year. As a barometer for risk trends and overall market sentiment the current price action does not appear to embody confidence among investors. Rightly so as there are a plethora of fundamental headwinds that have got investors nervous at the moment and it can often be hard to pin point which headline or market theme is going to drive price from session to session. However known fundamental risks that have existed in the market for an extended period and have had time to be priced in often do not elicit protracted, sustained moves. Many of the fundamental challenges ahead are already well analysed by investors; trade wars, brexit, political unrest in europe, slowing global growth and central bank policy, because of this the calamitous types of crashes that have occurred in the past (which were caused by the rapid onset of mostly unforeseen circumstances) is unlikely to repeat itself this time. Not saying that it can't happen, simply that I think it is less likely which is why I would caution traders from aggressively trying to chase prices lower. Also a skim through news articles and financial opinion pieces reveals an almost unanimous opinion of a market and US economic decline in 2019, the only disagreement being the severity. As we know the markets are extremely fond of putting the popular opinion to the sword. Attached is a chart of the SKEW index which measures investors perceived risk of a black swan type of event occurring, as we can see it is sitting very low. This is in line with the opinion that although there are risks, investors are satisfied with their understanding of them and the ability they have to mitigate damage to their capital. However the very real danger this poses is that should an unforeseen event occur in an already very fragile climate investors will be caught completely unprepared. The rapid onset of risk aversion that this might trigger would be horrific for the SP500, equities in general and all other risk correlated assets. So to summarise, I believe at the moment investors know and are preparing to manage the risks and challenges facing the US and global economy going into the new year and because of that a precipitous market fall is unlikely, unless some new predicament develops. In which case they have almost totally priced this out and havoc will ensue.
AMEX:SPY
by MarkE
USDCHF, last move for 2018. Rdy for 2019Finally a completion of a 3 level moves for USDCHF! Last week, the analysis point us towards a drop in USDCHF for week 52, and fortunately it did end up a lot lower with a new level 3 zone. This three level downward moves did throw me off a little with the high of level 2 zone getting to same level as zone 1, it triggered my paranoia of a high/low rest. Currently we only see half of the W being formed therefore I have yet to put a rectangle on the level 3 zone. For week 1 of 2019, ideally a candlestick pattern to push the price up so to confirm a complete W shape before we can take a good long position. With the absence of a complete reversal formation, long can also be entered at a smaller position. You can build up the long positions with longer monitoring frequency. If you have shorted in week 52, you would have net a good profit before the market closes. I changed my outlook of USDCHF to a long from short in week 51. However, do note that level usually stops at three but not always they will end off at three zones. For USDJPY, we have seen the fourth zone in week 52. Be flexible, stay open and be ready to take on positions on the other side! Hope your 2018 has been great and continue the great work in 2019! If you have any thoughts on USDCHF's movement for the coming weeks, please share them below, I look forward to learning and staying profitable together. Please help me like this analysis, and follow me for my weekly updates!
Long
by xunnobi
Long-Term View of EUR/USD using Triangles & WedgesThere is a symmetrical triangle within a falling wedge inside a larger weekly descending triangle. Based on this analysis EUR/USD will break it's current pattern of consolidation and fall to 1.1170 - 1.1190 level before the end of the year. (2018). Price is expected to shoot up to the upper trendline (1.1600) afterwards. If price breaks that level, expect up more to 1.2100; if upcoming Brexit updates are negative & the Federal Reserve hawkish on it's interest rate hikes throughout the next year, EUR/USD price can continue it's downward trend to 1.1100 and even 1.040 by the end of 2019. This post primarily serves as a reference point to the large wedge observed and it's long-tern viability. Do not take this analysis as a trading signal.
Short
by JetSauce
Ethereum back to $184 by January? >:^)&Right now, ETH is reaching some historical price levels that acted as support and resistance from 2017. What I'm seeing is kind of an upside-down fractal from the start of the bull run, about where the price is now. The rapid increase in dollar price during the months of May and June is comparable to the rapid decrease in the last couple of months, notably the fact that there were 5 green candles in a row followed by a massive retracement. Now we have had 5 red candles in a row. Does it not seem logical that at these price ranges, we could expect to see the reverse happen? The $84 level where we bounced could be a local low for the coming weeks, as it was an important level in 2017. The most bullish scenario would see huge buying volume in the coming weeks, essentially setting a double bottom from 18 months ago. Having run the numbers, if the retracement is proportional to 2017 bullrun, ETH could see a return to the mid one-hundreds by January. This is supported by the RSI also being at a historical bounce level, but it has been even lower in the past. Furthermore, I'd like to point on the volume situation we have here is much greater than the volume in the first fractal, which could mean that capitulation is already happening and this bullish scenario is out of the question until we go even lower on the RSI and it starts to turn upwards. Alternatively, if we break below the $84, there is little support, and capitulation may happen, so somewhere a little lower than that could be a decent stop-loss. What happens will depend heavily on BTC's movements, which I will aim to make an analysis about later. Just wanted to throw out this Ethereum chart as another way to look at things from the general bearish sentiment :) Could it be possible? Let me know in the comments.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by Etch1234
3