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2019

Options Idea: Sell The JD Oct 16 2020 62.5 Put @ $1.03JD has been in an ascending parallel channel since the COVID-19 peak in March and shows no sign of slowing down. I sold an October 16 2020 62.5 Put @ 1.03 near the bottom of the channel today with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next couple months. This is one of China's biggest e-retailers and its been having a great time with extra sales due to the pandemic. Don't see any reason why that should stop anytime soon. An alternative idea for a more aggressive trade would be to sell the $70 Put for a much larger credit. The $70 Put will be just below the bottom of the channel on the Oct 16 expiration. 20-JD-01 Opening Date: August 20, 2020 Expiration Date: October 16, 2020 DTE: 57 IV: 44% IV Percentile: 36% Odds of Winning: 80% Win: > 61.47 @ Expiration Loss: < 61.47 @ Expiration Reg-T Margin @ Open: $720 Chart Legend The green area represents 100% win zone. The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in. The red area is loss. 1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by OptionsCoach
2
Bearish Divergence on monthly chart for the S&P 500 Any thoughts on the monthly bearish divergence on the S&P 500? It even goes all the way back to 2018. It looks obvious to me, but I'm open to discussion. If there's a big sell-off here I would of course expect the Fed and Gov to step in again and start spending money. This also coincides with the fact that the sugar from the last round of Fed and Gov stimulus is wearing off. Things could get ugly here, the whole market has been expecting a correction for quite some time now too. That is unless the Gov comes together and puts out a package before the sell-off.
TVC:SPXShort
by quentinmaksimovich
SPX Macro Outlook: Spring 2023 @ 1782 On the low time-frame the SPX has a blatantly obvious broadening wedge. This tends to be a bearish pattern, as volatility is increasing to the downside more so than the upside. From a fundamental analysis perspective, the economy is valued at the highest it has ever been, but the economy is the worst it has been in almost a century. Something has to give... On the high time-frame notice the trend line support extending more than 50 years to 1975! Assuming out broadening wedge plays out, and we retrace to a major support level, the pertinent question is where and when? I find it likely that the trend line support of our broadening wedge and the trend line support of the last 50 years converge at a critical point: Spring 2023 @ 1782 Analyzing the past two recessions yields interesting information. The 2000 Dot Com Bubble retraced 5.5 years of growth. The 2008 Housing Bubble retraced over 12 years of growth. Assuming the 2020 Everything Bubble retraces to that key support of 1780 and converges with two trend line supports, we will have wiped out over 7 years of growth. Attached below is a chart made in 1875 identifying the length and magnitude of market cycles. As with any model, there is a degree of error. Nonetheless, it came pretty damn close to predicting the 1913 crash, Roaring 20's, Great Depression, WWII, 1970s stagnation, 1897 crash, housing crash, booming 2010s, and now 2020. Chart: drive.google.com Now, this model predicts this depression level correction to end in, you guessed it, 2023... Wow, that lines up with this analysis of Spring 2023 being the bottom @ 1782. How odd...
TVC:SPXShort
by Riester
Bitcoin vs COVID-19 - The pathway back to all time highs in $BTCAs the world entered its first pandemic in 100 years all financial markets cratered in early 2020. Even popular safe haven assets like $GOLD were not immune to the rush to liquidity amidst the panic and uncertainty. $BTC not widely known for its "safe haven" status also suffered the effects of this global liquidity squeeze. After 30 days of pain the fed ultimately injected trillions of dollars of liquidity into the financial markets while dropping rates to 0%. As the money printers go brrrrrr and the horrific economic data confirms the damage, investors and now seeking alternative safe havens for their cash as the purchasing power of all currencies is eroded by central bank money printing. The fundamental case for Bitcoin has always been there. Bitcoin, like Gold is hard money. By design Bitcoin is a scarce asset. You cannot print more bitcoin, there is a finite supply. Bitcoin is a weapon to battle deflation and inflation. Regardless of your opinion on Bitcoin my argument is this: Bitcoin will capture a growing asset allocation from investors as a hedge over the coming years. Not just from internet kids and contrarian investors but major institutions. A small shift in this allocation will send Bitcoin to a 6 figure price. The Chart: Bitcoin has broken up from a major falling wedge pattern. The volume spike is a massive tell. You can easily see the final capitulation followed by a very strong move upwards. 10500 is a key level and trading above here would provide strong conviction.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by panicselling
4
[NVAX] Novavax: Preliminary studies produce promising resultsPreliminary studies on coronavirus vaccines have produced promising results. I'm still a believer in their technology. Check out my previous NVAX posts and/or the first one. They have a promising technology that could revolutionize the vaccine industry. We (humanity) are already very behind in how we produce vaccines AKA using chicken eggs. So Novavax will hopefully pave the way for vaccines going forward. Things to watch even after COVID-19: - NanoFlu™ - ResVax™ - Recombinant Nanoparticle Vaccine Technology - Matrix-M™ Adjuvant Technolog TL;DR - To the moon and (probably) back lol *Note: This is pure speculation and my own opinion* NY Times: www.nytimes.com CNBC: www.cnbc.com
NASDAQ:NVAXLong
by traderman001
2
GBP/USD Forecast | April 21, 2020Hello Traders! Considering the current status of COVID-19 and the upcoming UK Claimant Count Change (Unemployment Claims) that will be released in a few hours (Around 1 a.m. Central Time), we could expect to see a downward movement of the GBP. If unemployment rates are worse than expected, we can take this opportunity to make a profit by selling the British Pound. Again, due to the extremely high volatility of the markets in these past weeks, there still is a possibility that the markets could bounce up instead. For that reason, I would suggest using "Sell Stops" at a lower price point instead of current market execution so that you can add a layer of risk management in case the markets don't move downward. Thank you for considering my opinion on GBP/USD! - ALPHALICIOUS Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion on the upcoming markets. I am not responsible for any trades that you place. Please trade using proper risk management and your own analysis. Thank you.
Short
by alphalicious
1