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2020

Australia - Watch for a Rally - Then Jump ShipLet's start with the broader picture first I understand the market looks horrific at press time, but the first thing that you must know about markets is this, nothing every goes in one direction forever, no matter how bad it seems. For context here are the three major US stock crashes. 2008 Crash 2000 Tech wreck 1929 Great Depression The second thing that you must know is that a market will TYPICALLY, not always, but typically will retrace 50% of the first wave before continuing lower, as seen in the above charts. In the most recent price action, this would entail a bounce to around 5400-5900, this is a prime opportunity to lighten exposure and prepare for another leg lower. Now, we may not get a bounce to the 50% fib level, but a move to the 38.2% is highly likely, at this point i would begin to lighten exposure and begin to buy shorting instruments, i.e. Puts. Now, where do i see the potential low? If the prior crashes throughout history are any gauge, then a top to bottom move of 50% is very likely, with the 1929 crash closer to 90%, i expect at worst we could see a middle ground, call it around 70%. This would be heavily dependent on Covid19 being far worse than governments are expecting, and a extended period of lock-down, which at press time, must not be discounted. That being said, the first targets are a "typical" 50% move from the peak, as you can see, this would erase ALL gains from the past 20 years, taking the index back to levels first reached in 2001. The third thing you must know about markets is that they go up in the long-term, emphasis on LONG-TERM. After the 2007 peak, it took over 4,300 DAYS to retread those levels. Do you have 12 years to wait? Bear in mind also, this index is not inflation adjusted, if one inflation adjusts the index we never made new highs, in other words, it has been over 13 years and we are yet to make new highs. What about Real Estate? I have long maintained the Australian real estate market is a bubble, ready to burst, with valuations in some areas exceeding over 10:1 income to Value ratios (IVR), this was inevitable and the bubble appears to be finally bursting, so no, your equity in your house will not save you. In fact, real estate priced in gold, is breaking out of a decade long slumber, what this means is that your home may gain nominal value, as governments feebly attempt to print enough money to cover the cracks, but your home will in reality be hemorrhaging real purchasing power. Welcome to the word of relative values, where your house can both go up AND down in value, simultaneously. In short, Australia has a weak economy, i have not even touched on the consumers and households overburdened with debt, the over reliance on the services industry as a primary source of GDP or the super fragile banking system, which by the way, have a huge number of "interest only loans" switching to principle and interest, over the next 18 months. Hmmm... wonder how the general households will deal with those. -TradingEdge Interest only loans: www.rba.gov.au
ASX:XAOShort
by Profit_Link
3
BTC 2020-2021 Map-We are now in a massive triangle since december 2017 and We got 3 touches on the bottom and three on the top of the triangle,so at the fourth touch on the top i expect the breakout and the next bullrun in crypto in 2020. -Now we are in an descending channel that was formed since 2019,we broke it in 2020 but we returned in it. - I see massive resistance at 7k-7.2k and the ultimate one 8k-9k. -The halving is in May around 18 May so we expect like in 2012 and 2016 one more bullrun + The FED printed a lot of money,and the dollar will lose in his value but Bitcoin can not be printed so this news right before the halving is a very bullish move. -For now i expect some consolidation before the halving and after it the next bullrun should start. -This is not a financial advice.This is just my analysis.So make sure to analyse for your-self and you are responsible for your trade or investment Have a nice day!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptonikLion
13
THE MOST DETAILED MULTI-FACTOR CRYPTO MARKET ANALYSIS[2020-2021]Market Guidance 2020-2021 Edition 2: Bitcoin as a credit cycle indicator- Is Bitcoin in fact, a safe-haven asset? Giving my intuition on expected long & short term future returns, and answering why the sell-off happened last week. If you stare at a chart long enough, suddenly it all makes sense . Abstract for any that don't have the time or understanding to read fully. I have to say soo much more, but the format, for now, is condensed and made as short as possible. I understand that it's a complex chart, but I attempted to simplify it as much as possible. If you've lost plenty while trading or investing in cryptos, and even if you've made sizeable returns, I highly recommend this brutally honest read. Announcement at the end. Happy weekend everyone! _________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract The current crypto market state analysed based on four perspectives: fundamental, macro, behavioural and technical . Interesting correlation was found between investment grade and fintech ETFs to bitcoin . Moreover, bitcoins' high volatility correlation to market volatility, in fact debunks the myth that bitcoin is a safe-haven asset . The last sections involves the long-term monetary policy effect on future expected returns in cryptos and the four types of investors interested in cryptos. As there is a considerably high probability that we might be stuck at the zero-lower bound in rates, even negative in the long term, bitcoin can provide diversification benifits in certain portfolios. _________________________________________________________________________________ Analysis Nowadays, I rarely post about cryptos, hence this time I really dug deep into all the factors: fundamentals, behavioural finance side, monetary policy correlation, macro shock factors(volatility) and of course technicals. Let's get on going with the fundamentals first. Surprisingly to me, bitcoin has an extremely large correlation to investment-grade(IG) bond(LQD, left chart) and fintech ETFs(FINX, right chart). Logically at first, I thought bitcoin should have a correlation to commodities (limited supply) and while there is a correlation, it simply doesn't explain well all the movements. Yes, you can describe bitcoin as a digital commodity(not gold, more like silver atm), but the way I view bitcoin/cryptos after designing this chart, is that as an asset class it, behaves more like a levered investment in a high growth fintech stock. But why is there a correlation? - The simple answer is, it's because of investor preferences. Outside the fintech/computer science community, not many agents are knowledgable or care enough about to invest in cryptos. Obviously, these investors work for companies within the named tech-intensive sectors that largely compose LQD and FINX(www.globalxetfs.com). Here's where the fun begins. In many of the IG ETF's such as LQD, there's plenty of junk hidden inside their structure(50% of LQD is rated BBB, for the sake of chasing yields-https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/fact-sheet/lqd-ishares-iboxx-investment-grade-corporate-bond-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf). And a good portion of BBB rated bonds, are still within sectors such as energy and materials(commodities)- and we all know how XLE has performed so far in 2020. The rest of the correlation is explained by movements in high growth zombie tech companies. Other fundamental factors worthy of mentioning that affect bitcoins price are oil prices and electricity prices (substitution effect), GPU prices(affected by precious metals), etc etc. Now onto the macro side of things and the recent broad market shock. Obviously, at this point, we're all very aware of the negative impact of the virus. Moreover to the fundamental point of view, many companies within LQD and FINX are at risk of their debt being downgraded or at worst entering a death spiral . Put yourself in the shoes of a fintech employee; if your company isn't doing well, and your position isn't guaranteed in the future, are you going to keep stocking up on "cheap cryptos" ? Of course not! In fact, most would trim down on their exposure . Essentially, this is what happened last week during the large drop once people got asked to work from home and others that unfortunately got laid-off. This is the basic intuition behind the notion that bitcoin works as a credit cycle indicator appears. What scares me is the number of stock options that these "silicon valley" types of companies use as compensations, that can further exaggerate the negative momentum as seen from the VIX(Right chart) . In principle, as long as volatility is controlled and in bearable amount, it benefits bitcoin. It attracts the trading type of investors that bring additional liquidity to the table(behavioural list below). But not if the volatility is five or more standard deviations above normal. Recent sell-off shock came around close to 8 std.deviations! Now that they're doing their job in the US (finally doing tests) we should see this volatility uptrend to continue. No doubt, the next two earnings seasons for Q1-Q2 will be massacres. Clearly there's a correlation between Bitcoin and SPX volatility. Look no further. This chart shows that there are more than enough evidence to debunk the myth that bitcoin is a safe-heaven asset in the short-term. Multi-asset class correlation happens in such large volatility moves, mainly because of large number of fund redemptions- basically flight for cash to fulfil short-term liquidity needs . From the charts above and the thorough technicals, in the short-term, there's a high probability that we will at least have a double bottom pattern in bitcoin. As the long-term bullish trend(right chart), as well as the 50 monthly SMA that served as a support at the end of 2018, are barely holding- by my assessment we are about to enter into a crypto bear-market! This brings me to my last two points, the behavioural side of crypto investing and long-term expected returns in cryptos. In principle, there are four types of crypto investors whos biases I won't discuss in this read. Here's my behavioural framework . Now since I described why the sell-off occurred last week, the question is who bought the dip? - The macro guys/portfolio managers driven by the recent monetary policy moves from central banks globally. This is where I introduce my long-term viewpoint. Unless there are technological or regulatory disruptors , cryptocurrencies as an asset class should yield above-average returns as long as we're close to the zero lower bound in rates, and even negative rates. Won't discuss how low rates affect bitcoin/growth stocks since I think the answer is quite obvious. Essentially, you can clearly see how deeply affected bitcoin is by the policy path that the FED takes(Bottom-Left chart) . There are many solid arguments that rates will stay close to zero for the foreseeable future- the Japanification process/scenario . But as per usual, the macro guys are too early this time too at least in my opinion. If you can bear -50-75% losses in case bitcoin drops below 3000, then you are well of to a very prospective portfolio for the future. On the flip side, if we break above the monthly Ichimoku cloud again + break the downtrend, this could be a great bullish breakout entrance point. ________________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion A long and extensive idea, but what do all these factors summarize to? In my perspective, the crypto asset class is still in its initial growth phase, still very immature. The crypto run in the last few years is very comparable to the 1848-1855 gold rush and the '90s .com bubble(www.youtube.com). Realistically speaking, it took two recessions(00's, 08-09) for the tech sector from the '90s to filter out the unproductive zombie companies, for the sector to mature . This is an inevitable stage in every innovation cycle. A similar industry to cryptos is the streaming industry, and likewise, I'd argue based on the cash burn rate that even Netflix is in the same cycle stage as bitcoin. Therefore, I still hold the opinion that the crypto asset class is immature and frankly, not investable at this point. I've laid the conditions based on which you can find a purpose of cryptos in your portfolio. Generally, most of the diversification benefits should come from by combining cryptos with the retail/cons. discretionary sectors. Finally, in case we do get many gov. bail-outs funded by tax money during the next economic downfall, I could see this as a strong argument for owning cryptos. As central banks balance sheets expand(fred.stlouisfed.org), the value of fiat is driven lower, which leads to an appreciation of all assets, especially currency substitutes(gold, cryptos). Short-Term: Bearish Bias (Target range 1000-2000) Long-Term: Bullish Bias (Target range 100 000+) Portfolio diversification if bitcoin is not owned in combination with fintech/XLK companies. This is it for the current state of the crypto market . I'd appreciate any and all feedback, questions, discussions in the comments . Don't forget to support my work if you find any of my ideas useful. For every new and all my current followers, make sure to send me a private message in case you want a preview of my next idea related to gold. Currently, I am working on a set-up to migrate to my own website. Most likely will take a year or two to get to a satisfactory stage, but I will keep everyone interested in my work informed. Thank you for all the support! Previous and relevant idea on the timing of the next economic downturn -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details , every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
2
SPY hindsight is only 2020Update on $SPY, Good news-New Stimulus package will hopefully be passed this week. Bad News-More cases, Unemployment report coming out. Level 340 was finally broken and the downtrend is very strong. Looks like we'll enter the "Death Zone" at 213 and strong possibility of reaching 185. 43-55% down with recession ahead I think this would be where we consolidate, but I've been wrong before and I've also never been in something like this....NEVER. Stay safe out there and manage the risk reward ratio in the coming days.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Thisguy22
Crash Comparison - 1929, 2000, 2008 and 2020 1929 - Crash 2000 - Crash 2008 -Crash 2020 - Crash Which of the prior three major crashes most closely resemble the 2020 crash? Certainly, not the 2000 crash, the initial drop is of equal magnitude, however the 2000 crash took over 365 days to reach that low from the highs, the 2020 crash has plumbed lower than 30% in just over 30 days. Similar story for the 2008 initial crash, the final leg down in 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers would be the closest match, but this is still not equal to the magnitude drop we are experiencing in 2020, when you consider that the post Lehman drop was 48% over 150 days, this equates to roughly 0.3% a day, the 2020 drop by comparison is closer to 3x times the rate of drop, at over 1.0% per day in decline. Even the initial 1929 stock market drop, that eventually lead to the great depression took 3x times as long to reach the 30% range. Yes, the macro environments for these drops were very different, i understand this. But it is worth considering just how unique these markets are at present time, with a combination of automated trading, real-time news feeds, easier access for retail investors and far higher leverage than ever before, this creates a highly volatile trading environment that can pivot at a moments notice. My personal belief is that the pain is not over, there will be a bounce at some point, however i will not be participating in that rally, i will be waiting to short. I think the ultimate bottom will be between the three crashes highlighted here, not quite the 90% devastation of the 1929 crash, but also not a 'typical' crash of 50% either. It may sound crazy now, but, i do believe that the SP-500 "COULD," emphasis on "COULD" be lower than at the 2008 peak before the market bottom, in other words, i believe that the last decade of market gains may very well be erased. This will obviously be dependent on the handling of Covid19 by governments around the world, this is not due to the loss of life (although that would be a global tragedy), it is instead due to the wave of defaults and bankruptcies that could flow out of this crisis as a result of the social distancing policies that governments will HAVE TO, not may have to, but have to employ in order to flatten the curve. This will include businesses closing for for several weeks, potentially even several months, this in turn will cripple airlines, cruise ships, hotels, casinos and a host of other industries. Many of which are currently looking to the federal government for a bailout, this is also not mentioning the small businesses and how they will be impacted, or the knock on effects that this will have on employment, or lack thereof. In short, the economic impacts and the societal impacts that will flow from the Covid19 virus are far-reaching, the macro environment is nothing like 2000 or 2008, the system is MORE unstable, not less, couple this with the potential for 1929 style unemployment and you have a recipe for disaster. -TradingEdge
SP:SPX
by Profit_Link
5
S&P500 Monthly Chart - 2020 Correction Still Not Over...Using a monthly chart of the S&P 500 I am simply charting two interesting characteristics based solely on longer-term technical analysis and charting: 1) what percentage was the drop in 2008 SPX levels and what was the corresponding percentage drop in the stochastic RSI level (to see at what level was it oversold) vs what percentages we have dropped for the same parameters currently in March 2020. 2) at what moving average level did we hit a bottom in 2008 and what could this imply for 2020: I am using a moving averages of 90, 200 and 365 for the monthly chart. 2008: 1) % Drop: the S&P500 dropped approximately by 53% and the RSI reading fell by 98%. 2) We also hit a bottom at the monthly moving average of 365 back then. 2020: 1) I was curious to see what a 53% drop from the all-time highs in 2020 would look like and how much more room there was in terms of both price level and the RSI to drop: both indicate that to get to a similar level correction in terms of % drop, we have quite some more room to go down near the 1600s in the SPX. 2) Also If 2008 is any guidance then the ultimate bottom could be the 365 day moving average for 2020 which would be a catastrophic drop from the 2020 all-time highs. Final thoughts: In my opinion, we are witnessing a historic economic AND financial de-leveraging. We have never ever had a global sudden economic stop. So while comparisons to 2008 aren't entirely accurate, it the 2008 global financial crisis serves as some point of reference. Without the need to spew further doom and gloom, it is abundantly clear that this sudden coordinated global halt in business and services is nothing short of spectacular and we may very well evolve from the current recession to a depression. While the speed of global central banks to enact policy and local governments fiscal policy stimulus have been tremendous in size and speed, this new environment we are in seems to be way more than just a virus. It seems more and more that there was a global desire for a debt/economic reset and this virus pandemic serves as the perfect environment to start the process. So even though tactically we could see a small rally, it would likely be short-lived and would be the ultimate bull-trap as the strategic longer-term direction is still bearish both from my technical view point and the economic/financial deleveraging context. ***the above analysis is my opinion only and should not be taken as trading advice. You alone are solely responsible for all and any of your trading decisions. All of your decisions should be be analyzed, researched and validated and must be be based on your own judgement."
TVC:SPXShort
by arigolden
Lower levels ahead of BTC HalvingWhat happened? 1) Economic uncertainty due mostly to Coronavirus bans 2) War on Oil price between Saudi Arabia and Russia...pushed uncertainty on the stock market and the wave went all over.. 3) BTC halving means that the mining process will be more and more centralised. Smaller miners started to sell and so did other investors out of uncertainty. What will happen? BTC price will probably retest lower levels up to 2019 lower lows. Investors will move their money into cryptos if 1) Prices are low enough. 2) No better alternatives (i.e.: Oil). 3) BTC shows upwards constant movements. Very hard to make predictions about when, but I think that we still have to go lower to be able to see some consistent movements, so let's wait next Monday and see if anything happened in between.... In the meantime enjoy life with a glass of good wine... Best Regards
BShort
by RobRobin
market crash scenario updateMy speculation based on historic crashes and bear markets on what will happen if Coronavirus keeps exponentially growing like I think it will and snowballs into corp debt downgrades... Lets see how good my crystal ball is. This is based on all my historic research of market crashes and bear markets since 1929. I plan to short in the red boxes when we have rallies - better for the second two larger red rallies if/when they occur. Main caveat is we need to continue to see CV spread into Corp debt bubble unwinding.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DropDead_Fed
BTC longterm upward trending fib levels, accumulation, halvingThis is a brief overview of what I am seeing in the longterm bitcoin chart, from an investor's technical and analytical perspective, taking note that the price action seems to be responding to upward trending fibonacci levels. I discuss my macro-view of the bitcoin price action, as well as my buy-zones for investment position accumulation. This provides a quick way for newcomers into the market to look at the chart, know when to buy into BTC as an investment, and when to start selling. Each fib level upward indicates higher risk, and each buy zone inside the bottom level corresponds to a "soft bull market"(green channel at bottom, my buy-zone-1) and a "full on bear market"(red channel at bottom, my buy-zone-2) Risk gets vastly lower if the price dips into these channels, but the channels still rise over time. The bitcoin price has been respecting these levels fib levels for years, and I believe that if you want to know what a "good" price to buy into bitcoin is on any given day, this is a great way to see what a "good" price is right now, whether it is now or 10 years from now. The top fib level is set on the 20k top at the end of the 2017 bubble, and the bottom fib level is set at the bottom of the 2019 bear market. Well, it just so happens that the 14k run-up last summer corresponds with the 0.5 fib level. This shows me that it respects these levels, and the levels themselves are rising against the USD value over time. So, in short, it becomes more difficult over time for the price to fall through price-based support levels, and easier for it to break through price-based resistance levels, BUT it is still respecting the upward-trending fib levels. So far, especially since the 14k run-up, the BTC price has set itself on a giant coiling wedge, with the D-day pointing right around the much-anticipated date of the Bitcoin Block Reward Halving. Though this may be speculation-based, it won't be after ~April 2020. After the miners' block reward payout gets cut in half, the BTC market will experience a supply shock. The daily issuance of bitcoin will be disproportionately low compared to the daily demand. This will not show affect in the price action immediately, I expect, because in previous halvings it took roughly one year for the market to really start a true, stable uptrend without sharp retracements. But there are also bubble zones from speculatory run-ups. This is exactly why I used upward trending fibs--- This gives me a good indication of what a high risk zone is for today, next week, a year from now, etc. So I know when it's good to start to accumulate, and when to start to take profit, relative to the current date. I don't believe that flat fib-retracements alone show the price action's dynamic reactions to these levels over time. What are your thoughts? Let me know. I'll be doing more videos soon---Crypto Technical Analysis for investing and trading. But for now, a macro-look into the market's largest asset is best for a start. -Trey
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by coppertoe347
Bitcoin - Price of destinyBITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSD GEMINI:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSD BITTREX:BTCUSD BITBAY:BTCUSD FOREXCOM:BTCUSD CEXIO:BTCUSD OKCOIN:BTCUSD FTX:BTCUSD CURRENCYCOM:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITTREX:BTCUSDT POLONIEX:BTCUSDT HUOBI:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDC COINBASE:BTCUSDC HITBTC:BTCUSDT POLONIEX:BTCUSDC OKCOIN:BTCUSD3M BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP OKCOIN:BTCUSDIDX OKCOIN:BTCUSD1W BITBAY:BTCUSDC OKCOIN:BTCUSD2W HITBTC:BTCUSDC HITBTC:BTCUSDT20 COINBASE:BTCGBP COINFLOOR:BTCGBP BITFINEX:BTCGBP FOREXCOM:BTCGBP CEXIO:BTCGBP BITBAY:BTCGBP BITFINEX:BTCGBPLONGS BITFINEX:BTCGBPSHORTS CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITPANDAPRO:BTCEUR BITBAY:BTCPLN BITBAY:BSVBTC KRAKEN:ETHUSD KRAKEN:LTCUSD COINBASE:XTZUSD BITFINEX:KNCUSD BINANCE:BNBBTC BINANCE:HBARBTC COINBASE:LINKUSD COINBASE:XRPUSD
BNC:BLXLong
by MaverickTrading