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BTCUSD: What To Watch For Within Key Resistance Area.BTCUSD update: Some selling activity is now appearing in the middle of the 16350 to 17876 resistance zone. This price action also happens to be in an area of overlapping resistance levels that I will explain further in this report. If price cannot recover quickly, it is more likely to retest the low 15K area. I have been writing about the 16350 to 17876 resistance zone for about two weeks. It is the .618 resistance area relative to the broader bearish structure off of the 19891 peak. Upon further evaluation, there are two additional levels within this zone that are also worth noting since they point to a increased chance of selling pressure. The 16923 level is the 1.618 target projected from the 12795 low. Often price will hesitate around these projections as it is doing now. The other level which is less relevant but still worth noting is the upper boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 16474 peak. This price is worth noting because it serves as a breakout point. If price pushes above, it is then much more likely to test 20K, if price can't break this level, then it is more likely to correct which can lead price back into the low 15Ks. Even though price is showing potential reversal activity at the moment, it still has to prove its weakness by breaking back below the 16450 and 16100 areas respectively. This is where letting the market prove itself comes into play. If you are in for a swing trade long, and prefer to be conservative, you can reduce risk now by exiting a portion of your position. If you prefer to be more aggressive, you can just hold until the market proves it wants to retrace further. Obviously you will lock in less profit but that is the trade off that you must accept by giving the market a chance to reward you further. A healthy correction from here would be the retest of 15070 (.382 of recent bullish structure) or the 14398 to 13766 area (.618 area relevant to recent bullish structure). That is the area to look to add to a position, or enter a new swing trade long upon a bullish reversal. In summary, the trading mindset is about anticipating. Anticipating means we consider a number of scenarios and then we evaluate new information to see which scenario the market is conforming to. At the moment this market is hesitating in an area where a significant correction can unfold from, BUT until it proves it wants to follow such a scenario, it is reasonable to expect continued strength. Having levels that are generated from market structure helps us to paint a better picture of what is within reason based on market movement, not our feelings or opinions. My plan is to initiate a swing trade long IF my projected supports can be reached and validated around the low 15Ks or low 14Ks as described above. Having such criteria helps me avoid being consumed by the reactionary emotions of greed and fear which is what drives the herd mentality. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
27
BTCUSD:Facing CME Volume And A Bearish Formation. 20K Anyway?BTCUSD update: Minor retrace to the 18k level followed by a bullish pin bar off of a narrowing channel that points to an attempt at 20k. Now that both the CBOE and CME futures are in play, I anticipate more and more price noise in this market, and based on the current structure, a test of the psychological 20k level. As far as levels goes, not much has changed except for the 20300 upper boundary of the reversal zone generated by the structure of the 18k retrace. This zone is narrow and is worth noting because of the psychological effect of the 20K level. Will price break it? Based on the current bullish pin bar that is unfolding, price is likely to push through momentarily at least. Markets that intend to sell often reject major levels quickly, not form a pin bar within the lower boundary of a bullish trend line just under the resistance level. With that being said, there is a conflicting structure than may lead to a much broader correction soon after the 20k test and that is the bearish pennant formation which is made clear by the converging trend lines. These formations have been appearing frequently in these markets only to see price go higher, but that does not mean they should be ignored when they appear. As the trading day progresses, the CME futures volume should increase and have a stronger effect on the price action. Keep in mind futures contracts can easily be shorted which will compensate for the absence of selling that has been built into these markets thanks to regulation in the U.S. And if institutions decide to get short, they can afford to do it big, and with ease now that the CME offers a 5 coin contract compared to the one coiner over at the CBOE. So price is at a psychological resistance, gyrating around 18974 which is a 2.618 target (written about in previous report) and in the process of building a bearish pennant formation. Even though the overall trend is still bullish, these conflicting signs say three things to me: A broader short term correction is more likely, if you are long, lock in some profit, and do not take any new long swing trades at these levels. And as far as the alts, people keeping asking me what will happen if this market presents a more serious correction and the answer is: who knows. The relationship with the alts fluctuates wildly. One minute BTC sells while alts push dramatic new highs, and the next minute, they are all showing the similar price structures as they are at the moment. I don't rely on that relationship and instead evaluate the price action of each coin independently. In summary, it will be interesting to see how the CME affects this market now that professionals and institutions can get into the game safely and with size. As far as my plan goes, I am patiently waiting for a reasonable retrace to a projected support which is at the 14500 area. IF price retests that support, I will then evaluate for a bullish reversal. Otherwise I have no reason to take any action at this time. If the market can't meet my criteria, then I can't take any risk because the market doesn't control me, I control myself. That is what a trading plan is all about. Comments and questions welcome. Quick announcement: Tomorrow I am going to appear live on NASDAQ's Twitter broadcast. They are going to interview me about the coins. I will post the link in tomorrow's report so keep an eye out for it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
Bitcoins biggest correction to date? or a platform to 20k?Sorry about the deleted TA from earlier as i published last one it blew thru a hole lol So again the bulls and bears fight over which way Bitcoin is headed, we can see a clear bounce from a major support level around high 12000's most probably see a retest of this, and if breaks down headed toward the lower area's of the Gann Fan seems like the top of bounce peaked at 14500 if it moves up out of the lines will consider a more bullish stance, otherwise we on course for a HUGE correction, could be days, weeks, xmas will throw in extra mix this year with all new popularity and 24/7 markets if it does break down use the gann fan levels for rebuy areas, if not hold onto your as 22k is on the Xmas cards list.... if bitcoin goes below 9200, it will be serious down trend and bring a lot of the market with it, could be a BCH play/switch too, im not ruling that out and with that have a very festive and merry period wherever u are or pray too, peace n love innit mate! (personally this year is all about Star Wars)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by majorlee
10
Dow 20k fail (Again) - Bearish DivergenceThere are signs a top may be forming here. We've had a very extended bull run, and now we're beginning to see very clear divergence between price and RSI on the daily. Divergence alone is not a setup. Divergence can continue far longer than most people are prepared to hold a drawdown. It's just a reason we might look for more defined setups to trade. The key here is on Friday we made a new high in price but not RSI, tantalisingly reachin 19,999.6 on the cash index and frustrating those calling for 20k again. On this timeframe, you'd look for a daily candle to close below friday's (last candle in chart) low (or more cautiously, Thursday's low ) This should set up a correction of the Trump rally. However w must remind ourselves that the long term bull trend is still a strong one, and - in my opinion - we've no good *technical* reason at this time to believe any move down is anything but a retracement. Also be aware that we've been ranging (red horizontal channel). Breaking that lower bound of the range is further confirmation that a bigger retracement is likely. It's likely any sharp move down will come back to retest the range as resistance, providing more opportunities for entry. I leave you to pick target levels for yourself based on entry if you see confirmation of these bearish setups, but personally, I think a return to at least 19,000 dow would not be surprising, should price action confirm the divergence.
FX:US30Short
by BobVanders
6