Inverse Head & Shoulders $TLT ETF Weekly ChartInverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT ETF Weekly Chart The NASDAQ:TLT ETF weekly chart, which tracks 20-year+ Treasuries, shows an inverse head & shoulders pattern still intact. 📊 U.S. Treasury funds have attracted billions in inflows over the past couple of weeks, fueled by rising expectations of rate cuts and growing investor confidence in long-term government bonds. 💵 However, there's resistance at the $100 level— NASDAQ:TLT needs to break this level before heading higher. 📈🚀
#USTreasury #Bonds #FixedIncome #Investing #Finance NASDAQ:TLT #RateCuts #MarketTrends #ETF
20yearbond
$TLT, the last bond rally before bear market continuation?NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92.
Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts.
After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish bonds after the $98 resistance gets tagged.
I also think we'll see new lows (I know this is very opposite of what most people think will play out). This is also likely the catalyst that brings down the stock market (rates rise more than people think is possible).
Let's see how it plays out.
$TLT 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF The NASDAQ:TLT , or the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF, appears to be undergoing a significant shift in its trend dynamics based on your description. Here's a breakdown of what you're observing:
1. **Bearish to Bullish Reversal**: This indicates that the ETF, which was previously in a downtrend (bearish phase), is showing signs of reversing to an uptrend (bullish phase). Such reversals are often identified through technical indicators like moving averages, momentum oscillators, or trendline breaks.
2. **Parallel Downtrend Break**: The breaking of a parallel downtrend suggests that the ETF has moved beyond a previously established downward channel. This is a technical pattern where the price moves within two parallel lines downwards. Breaking out of this channel can be a significant bullish signal, indicating that the selling pressure is easing and buyers are starting to take control.
3. **Bullish Consolidation**: After the initial reversal, it seems the ETF is now in a phase of bullish consolidation. This typically involves the price moving sideways or slightly pulling back, which allows the ETF to stabilize after the initial surge in buying activity. This phase often precedes further upward movement as it suggests that buyers are still interested at these higher price levels, and the selling pressure is not strong enough to push the price back down.
For a more detailed analysis, it would be beneficial to look at specific technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), volume data, as well as key support and resistance levels. Additionally, fundamental factors impacting Treasury bonds, like interest rate changes, inflation expectations, and overall economic outlook, should also be considered to complement the technical analysis.
Remember, while technical analysis can provide valuable insights, it's always important to consider multiple factors and viewpoints when making investment decisions.
TLT - Keylevels - WeeklyI am accumulating TLT, I have accumulated in the areas: 83,84,85,86,87 and I will continue to accumulate as long as the price remains below 92.
Over 92, I will stop accumulating.
Macro speaking, we have this falling wedge and once the interest rate cuts on the dollar will start, I expect TLT to react positively.
First of all, we need uS10years to start a correction.
$TBT Double Top AMEX:TBT Double Top, A "double top" is a popular term used in technical analysis to describe a chart pattern that suggests a potential bearish reversal of an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of the double top pattern:
1. **Formation**: The double top pattern forms after a strong upward move or trend. It consists of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between, which is called the "neckline".
2. **First Peak**: The first top is formed when the upward trend reaches a resistance level and sees a reversal, leading to a price decline.
3. **Trough**: After the first peak, the price undergoes a correction, which leads to the formation of the trough. This decline is a sign of short-term profit-taking but isn't strong enough to signal a trend reversal yet.
4. **Second Peak**: Following the trough, the price will attempt to rally again, moving back towards the level of the first peak. However, it will once again meet resistance and fail to break through, leading to the formation of the second peak.
5. **Breakdown**: After the formation of the second top, if the price breaks below the neckline or the lowest point of the trough, it's a confirmation of the double top pattern and signals a trend reversal. The expected downward move can be approximately the same vertical distance as that between the peaks and the neckline.
6. **Volume**: Typically, volume tends to be higher on the left peak than on the right one. A noticeable increase in volume on the breakdown through the neckline can serve as additional confirmation.
7. **Significance**: The double top pattern is considered a powerful signal, especially when spotted on longer timeframes like daily, weekly, or monthly charts. However, as with all technical analysis patterns, it's essential to use additional indicators and methods to confirm a potential trade.
Remember, while the double top can be a reliable indicator of a trend reversal, no single method is foolproof, and it's essential always to use risk management techniques.
TLT: waiting a long time. Is it time to buy?One more Fed hike this year and after that bond market will hopefully settle down. When rate cuts start to happen, stock market will most like take a nosedive and a better home for the capital will he right here at TLT. In between now and then I am planning to start accumulating little bit at time bottom fishing some lows, but not too much. TLT is dangerously close to getting bottom fall off. Below about $80.5, it may tank another 30%. So little bit here and there is the way to go right now with options hedge. Fed might keep hiking to infinity destroying US economy and bonds along the way. TLT will not be a good place in that case...
Technical areas: right now will look for a bounce to $ 95- $97. Above $99 there is a good change that the low is in. Otherwise will look for one more lower low to between $87 - $85 area. That is when I will put some more capital in. Below $80 it is game over, sell all, wait and see.
Somebody knows something? TLT high volume spike. TLT high volume spike, after short term bullish run.
Declining rate on the us treasury bonds in the broader market have given the 20 year TLT bond fund a boost over the last week. As the rates have been declining on the anticipation of a fed funds pause, the value of long term bonds has been increasing, or moreover moving up for the unrealized loss positions which is what sent SVB to the grave.
Meanwhile; Chairman Powell announced an increased fed fund rate of .25% higher, despite the anticipation of a pause from the general public. At the same time they have proposed a general backstop to the banking system, guaranteeing a full discount swap for these underwater bond assets held by the banks, and guaranteeing depositors their funds are safe to prevent further bank runs.
These actions appear bearish in the general outlook, and in character regarding the necessity of raising rates yet again, as well as the necessity of proving a backstop for the banks so as not fail.
Of course, many have taken these action as a sign of bullishness, as a sign that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve board will be pausing soon, as he mentioned this to be the case for the next meeting. The fed funds rate is now 4.83 %.
The TLT high volme spike, on a short red candle is indicative of high interest to the short side at this price level, indicating that the potential future move for rates is even higher still; forecasting that long term bonds will remain underwater; and the banking crises with the potential to continue into the near and medium future.
These are simply my opinions. I am curious to hear what you all think. i am open to dissent, corrections of my errors, and alternative opinions, as long as they are evidenced, logical, and factual. what do you think?
TLT | 20 Year Bond ETF | OverboughtThe fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years.
TBT | 20 Year Treasury Oversold | BounceThe fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index includes publicly-issued U.S. Treasury securities with minimum term to maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and have $300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve. The fund is non-diversified.
TLT - Lemmon / Royer 714Quaaludes.
Stumble Cookies as we used to refer to them.
Half a dozen in a pitcher of Beer and it was down
to the ground.
Ah, the good old days, when Mommy's suffering from
manic depression we're Sub'd these little ones.
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Bond Vigilantes might be suffering from Sopor Ingestion.
If so, please - the hookup.
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The Degen Class of 007s has never quite learned the game.
Rip it up, move down
Rip it up, move it down to the ground
Rip it up, cool down
Rip it up, don't hang me on the borderline
On the edge of oblivion
And all the world is Babylon
And all the love and everyone
A ship of fools sailing on
(Wang Chung )
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No matter we'll continue to take their Bacon and eat their
Cake. Everything is better bacon-wrapped.
Even Cake.
Sweet and Sour.
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After dismal 13 / 26 week auctions.... 2's and 5's sheet the bed as well...
7's had a rough day... less than 50% uptake on JunkCo Gov Bongs.
Savage X Fenty, we're surmising.
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Our favorite Velociraptor is back... toothless and starving ever so
slowly. Wondering why the Dolt O' Whirl is imploding again.
Looking for a "Massive RT!"
A quick review of Dino's revisionist Track Record who was Wildy
Hog Calling 180 for TLT and buying every Dip...
T-r-X
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Sep 9, 2021
Wrong boy is wrong.
T-r-X
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Sep 10, 2021
@HK_L61, US treasuries are still cheap.
T-r-X
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Sep 14, 2021
@HK_L61, TLT is actually AAA quality government bonds (not junk).
Btw JP Morgan is a large buyer of US treasuries.
"Jamie Dimon says he wouldn't touch Treasurys with a 10-foot pole at these rates." Just do the opposite.
I will enjoy seeing you lose money.
T-r-X
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Sep 15, 2021
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TradingView for Android
I allocate between SPY, TLT and cash (DXY). I don't use options.
T-r-X
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Nov 9, 2021
How's your short going?
T-r-X
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Dec 29, 2021
@jscheurichiv, JP Morgan wants them.
T-r-X
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May 12
@HK_L61, Still convinced in my 30 year US treasuries position. 30 year yield will drop to around 1%.
T-r-X
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Jan 19
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TradingView for Android
@HK_L61 Nothing changed. Your calls were all wrong.
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Losers lose, Winners Win - T-REX Wrecked.
TY for your $.
xoxo - Hunter Killer
TLT MegphoneWe established a lear thesis for Bonds Back in July of 2021.
It is tracking and trading in Trend.
The trend is clear concise and direct.
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3.6 Interemdiate to 6%.
3.265 os the pivot.
Overbought?
Oversold?
No such thing in 40 year Trend reversals.
A complete collapse of the Equity Complex, might drive rates to 2%...
Lovely.
TLT +.41% / While 20Yr @ High Yield of Month 2.06%Today's 20 Year Auction was sloppy and dangerous for Wood Panel FanBoys.
We released the Mastif's who chased Eddie Munster off our land.
Alexandra put a few 10 Gauge Triple Otts in Steve's BUttocks for good
measure.
Hopefully, this will suffice.
IF not - it's on to more persuasive actions. Alex adores the thought.
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www.treasury.gov
Bonds are seeing further FED Props.
Jit's Nasty out there for the 007s.
ZN is barely hanging on... Price Objective for ZN 129.55
Structure is Weakening
DOW at Session Lows.
Crude Dumpster Fire.
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Bond Market Dislocations ahead.