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SPX: What it Takes to REVERSE? Let's see. 🕵️‍♂️• Despite the Shooting Star from yesterday, it seems the SPX found a strong support level at the 21 ema; • As stated yesterday, on my previous public analysis on SPX (link below), this movement could be just a pullback to the 21 ema, just to resume the bull trend again; • Therefore, the 21 ema is our key support level, and only if the index loses it, we would see a stronger correction – possibly to the 3,744; • Although it found a support at the 21 ema, and it closed above the 3,911 yesterday, it didn’t reject yesterday’s Shooting Star completely, as it must break yesterday’s high in order to do so (3,950) – however, I agree that it is doing a decent job so far; • In my view, we won’t see more correction as long as we stay above this 21 ema. Let’s see what happens today, I’ll keep you updated every day on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
TSLA: The beginning of a Dead Cat Bounce? 🙀• TSLA did a powerful reaction last Friday, and it seems it wants to continue the bounce, but it is stabilizing under the $120; • TSLA broke our short-term resistances, which we studies in details on my previous analysis (link below this post); • If it loses momentum, TSLA will most likely seek the $110 again, at least, as the trend is still bearish, and the sentiment is not the best; • Considering it did a Hammer candlestick pattern last week, it wouldn’t be surprising if we see TSLA retesting the 21 EMA in the daily chart, or even one of the retracements; • However, any pullback to a resistance level must be considered just an opportunity to sell, as the trend is bearish and there’s no bullish reversal structure – just a bottom sign; • If this is a Dead Cat Bounce or not, only time will tell, but for now, let’s keep the $110 support in mind, as if TSLA loses it, it might frustrate any possible bounce; • In order for TSLA to reverse the bearish sentiment, we must see a clear bullish reversal structure. So far, there’s none; • The 21 EMA in the daily chart, along with the retracements, are all shirt/mid-term resistances, and won’t be easy for TSLA to break them; • I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
SPX: Did a BREAKOUT! What's next? 🚨• The index is did exactly what we expected it would, since our previous analysis, last Friday (link below this post); • It went up to hit the upper line of this Ascending Channel (in the 1h chart), but now, it seems we have a clear breakout; • In the daily chart, it is trying to break our resistance at 3,911, and it broke the 21 EMA as well (which is starting to point up); • All these signs point to a short/mid-term bullish reversal; • So far, there’s no clear top sign, or any bearish structure around indicating a continuation of the bear trend; • However, if the index loses the red line at 3,911 again, it might frustrate this attempt of a reversal, and it’ll resume the bear trend again; • I’ll keep you updated on this every day, as usual, but for now, let’s pay attention to the 3,911. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
Has the Downtrend in AVAX Resumed?Primary Chart: AVAX's rally from August 29, 2022, to September 12, 2022 Appears Corrective It appears that the downtrend in AVAX's price has resumed. But one need not speculate based solely on the recent days of selling. Price charts for AVAX have left plenty of evidence to show where price may go next. First, it's important to define the overall trend. The most basic way to do so is by looking at the major highs and lows on a higher time frame, like a daily or weekly chart. Then, evaluate whether the price has formed higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows. Below is a daily chart, where anyone can see that a series of lower highs and lower lows has appeared since November 2021. Supplementary Chart A: Defining AVAX's Trend Furthermore, the downtrend channel—with its trendline across the major swing highs since November 2021—leaves little doubt that price has remained in a downtrend. The return line (the lower line of this parallel channel) also helps visualize the downtrend. The 21-day EMA is also a helpful trend gauge. For the majority of the distance that the 21-day EMA has printed on this chart, the slope has been negative and this EMA has made downward progress. Yes, a few upward segments appear, but they are a smaller proportion of the overall line. Next, an anchored VWAP can help see where price is relative to where it has been over the summer. The VWAP in the chart below is anchored to the lows of June 2022. Note how price action has been very choppy over the summer, much like the price action in major equity indices like the S&P 500 SP:SPX and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX . Price broke above this anchored VWAP at least four times, and some of the rallies were sharp and powerful as bear rallies can be. Supplementary Chart B: Anchored VWAP with Several Failed Breakouts The fact that price has broken above the anchored VWAP at least four times and failed back below it each time supports the notion that this summer's upward price move was a countertrend bear rally. The last breakout attempt over the anchored VWAP in early September was by far the weakest, suggesting that buying pressure is waning and that the downward trend is likely to begin again in earnest in the short-term. One need not have an infallible Elliott Wave (EW) count to analyze the price action and draw useful inferences with EW concepts. The chart below defines the two essential types of waves under Elliott Wave theory. These basic definitions may be applied to the downtrend since November 2021. The result supports the same conclusion reached using other methods of technical analysis discussed above—that price is trending down with upward rallies being countertrend and corrective in nature. Supplementary Chart C.1: Elliott Wave Analysis for Entire Downtrend Even the price action since the June 2022 low can be examined under EW principles for helpful inferences as to whether the downtrend has resumed. Since even the best EW analysts can disagree about precise counts, a more useful approach to EW can be to evaluate motive and corrective price action by its basic characteristics, as shown in the chart immediately below. Supplementary Chart C.2: Elliott Wave Analysis for June-September 2022 Price Action And AVAX's price action for the rally of the past several weeks can also be analyzed using EW concepts. The Primary Chart above shows how the two legs of the rally are nearly equal. They have a common proportion of 1.272, a Fibonacci relationship common in corrective patterns known as zigzags, and also a common corrective pattern known as a complex W-X-Y correction. (For the non-EW readers, it helps to know that an EW corrective pattern constitute an upward price move in a downtrend as well as a downward price move in an uptrend.) Because the legs of the rally fall into a 3-wave pattern in which wave A = 1.272 x wave C, a Fibonacci relationship that is near equality, one can conclude that the entire summer rally was a corrective and countertrend move. From this premise, one also may infer that the trend, when it resumes, will continue downward. Lastly, AVAX has lost all its major retracement levels from this summer's rally. Importantly, it has lost its .618 and .786 retracements. If one were to question whether the summer rally was the start of a new uptrend, one would want to see the .618 and .786 retracements hold as support before price turned higher again. These retracements typically hold as support when price retraces only a portion of an uptrend move. But they have failed as support as shown below, which suggests the downtrend is likely resuming as of last weeks price decline. Of course, the .786 retracement at $17.39 could easily be retested and even broken briefly similar to the way the .618 retracement was in previous days this month. Supplementary Chart D: Fibonacci Analysis as to Summer 2022 Rally
COINBASE:AVAXUSDShort
by SquishTrade
9
SPX: Be aware of these KEY POINTS! [UPDATED].• As we expected, the 21 ema is working as a resistance for the index, and it couldn’t break it yesterday. The link to my previous analysis is below this post, as usual; • In the 1h chart, it seems the index is trapped inside an Ascending Channel. If a downwards breakout occur, I see it at 3,744, the next support level in the daily chart; • A bullish reversal would only occur if the SPX breaks the Ascending Channel (1h) upwards, along with the 21 ema (D). So far, there’s no evidence pointing to that direction; • Either way, let’s pay attention to its main support/resistance levels for now. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
MSFT: Crashing? Yes. Scary? Nope.• MSFT just hit our target at $228, as it did exactly what we expected since our previous public analysis on it, almost a month ago (the link is below this post, as usual); • Despite the high volatility, this movement is very technical and not surprising at all, but in order to bounce again, MSFT has to react as soon as possible; • The problem is that any bounce will face at least two resistance levels in the daily chart: First the $238, second the 21 ema; • Only if MSFT breaks these key resistances it might do a clear reversal structure; • If not, we can expect a continuation of this bearish sentiment all the way down to $212, the next technical support level; • Therefore, let’s pay attention to the $228 support, as now would be the best time for a reaction. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
NIO: Triggered our Bearish Flag! 🐻 What to expect next?• NIO triggered our Bearish Flag chart pattern, indicating a continuation of the bearish sentiment; • We studied this scenario in our previous public analysis on NIO – link below this post; • In the daily chart, the 21 ema is working as a resistance, and it is pointing down, which reinforces the idea of a bearish sentiment; • What’s the next technical support level for NIO? The purple trend line in the weekly chart. Below that point, the $5.70; • Could NIO react from here? Yes, and if it is about to react, the timing couldn’t be better. NIO is near the weekly support at $9.40 (black line, weekly chart), and any bottom sign would indicate a possible bounce to the 21 ema again. However, there's not a single bullish sign on NIO yet; • I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
SPX: In a "No Man's Land"! But for how long? 🤔• The index hit our resistance at the 21 ema, and it couldn’t break it; • On the other hand, the 3,818 is a key support area, which is preventing a further drop to the 3,744 (next technical support level, green line); • As long as the index remains between these two key points, it’ll be in a “no man’s land”, moving erratically while we don’t see any good technical breakout indicating a possible bullish reversal or bearish continuation pattern; • There’s another key point at 3,911, which did work as a support/resistance multiple times since July 2022. If SPX breaks this key point, it might easily retest the 4k again, possibly breaking it; • The 3,744 plays a similar role, but to the downside, as if the index loses this key point, we might see a continuation of the bearish sentiment to lower levels; • For now let’s keep these key points in mind. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
SPX: Be AWARE of this RESISTANCE AREA! 👀• The SPX is trying to recover this morning, but it has yet to break its major resistance area in order to reverse the bearish sentiment; • Together, the 21 ema and the green line at 3,911 make a dual-resistance level on the index, and only if it breaks this price area it’ll have some chance of reversing; • Any top sign under this resistance level might indicate a bearish continuation, making a rally to this area just another Dead Cat Bounce; • The next technical support would be the 3,744 (red line); • As long as the index remains under the dual-resistance, it won’t be easy for the bulls. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
SPX: Key SUPPORT + RESISTANCE levels to pay ATTENTION!• The index is correcting this morning, trying to frustrate yesterday’s bullish reaction; • If it drops to the point of filling the previous gap at 3,790, the index will lose momentum, and it might be hard for it to recover again; • In theory, the SPX has more upside left, at least to retest its 21 ema, or maybe the 3,911 again, but if it frustrates yesterday’s reaction, it might just seek the next support at 3,744 without any decent bounce; • Only if the index breaks the 21 ema + 3,911 again it will convince me of a stronger bullish reaction. As long as it stays below these key points, there’s absolutely nothing interesting going on with it, especially with many other stocks doing better/clearer movements; • Either way, I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
TSLA: Dead Cat Bounce or not? Key Points to watch from here!• TSLA is going up nicely, as we expected since our previous analysis on it. We nailed the bottom at $110, and now it seems it is just heading to the next resistance at $126 (the link to my previous analysis is below this post, as usual); • In the 1h chart, we see that TSLA corrected since it hit $123. This is acceptable, but it must not too much from here, otherwise, it might ruin our thesis that it’ll hit the $126, and just resume the bear trend (which is still extremely strong, by the way); • In addition to the $126, there’s a trend line in the 1h chart, connecting the previous top levels, and this could work as a resistance as well; • Only if TSLA breaks this trend line and the $126, it might have some chance of bouncing to higher levels, like the 21 ema in the daily chart - otherwise, it is just a Dead Cat Bounce; • The situation is still delicate on TSLA, but let’s watch these key points carefully from now on. I'll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
SPX: A Dead Cat Bounce or REVERSAL? Watch these KEY POINTS.• It seems the SPX wants to react today, but as long as it stays under the 3,818, the bearish sentiment will persist; • In order to avoid a bearish continuation it is important to see the index reacting and closing above the 3,818 today. In this scenario, the next resistance is around 3,911, as evidenced on the chart above; • What’s more, the index is trading below the 21 ema, which is pointing down, indicating that the trend is still bearish, and this is another resistance on the SPX; • Could the SPX hit 4k again? Yes, but it must break the two resistances mentioned above, in order to trigger a bullish reversal structure in the mid-term. Any top sign under a resistance might be just another sell sign, meaning, it would be just a Dead Cat Bounce; • The next support is at 3,744 (red line). How the SPX will react today might indicate if we’ll seek the next support or if it has some chances of bouncing again. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
AAPL: Is it confirming a new DIP? Only if it does this.• AAPL looks extremely bearish, doing a new low this year; • In the weekly chart, we see that the $128.65 was a key support level from June, which AAPL completely ignored yesterday; • The next technical support is at $121, and in theory, AAPL is supposed to get there – if we don’t see a very good reaction rejecting the bearish sentiment; • What could be a good reaction on AAPL? It would be important to see it closing above the $128.65 today. As this would give the impression of a false breakout from a support level, a technical bear trap, and could make yesterday bar a possible Exhaustion Bar; • In this scenario, I see AAPL retesting the 21 ema in the daily chart again next. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
SPX: Reacting above a SUPPORT LEVEL! What to expect next?• The SPX is reacting today, but it is not an amazing reaction yet; • The fact it is holding above our support at 3,818 is interesting, but it has yet to break its key resistances in order to reverse the bearish sentiment; • As mentioned in our previous post (link below this analysis), the 3,911 is the main resistance, which is close to the 21 ema in the daily chart as well, making this a dual-resistance area; • If SPX breaks this resistance, the next technical resistance is only at 4,083; • On the other hand, let’s pay extra attention to our 3,818 support level, as if the index loses this area, the next stop is the 3,744; • Let’s wait for more clues. Probably we’ll see more definition this week. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
TSLA: Bullish reaction above our TARGET! What's next?• TSLA hit our target at $110, as we discussed in our previous analysis, last week (link below this post, as usual); • Today, it seems we have some reaction, which is expected. It is very rare to see TSLA dropping 7 days in a row (actual drops, not only bear candlesticks). To be honest, I don’t recall seeing 7 drops in a row on TSLA. If this ever occurred, must be a long time ago; • If TSLA confirms this reaction, any bounce on TSLA would have to face the next resistance at $126. In addition, any bounce would be just a Dead Cat Bounce, as there’s no clear bullish reversal structure on TSLA – it is still doing lower highs/lows. Meaning, a top sign under a resistance would be just an opportunity to sell; • In addition to the $126, we see the red trend line connecting the previous top levels, which is another resistance, along with the 21 ema; • What if TSLA loses this support at $110? The next technical support is the $91. • Let’s pay attention to this reaction and see where it can take us. I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
AMD: Still bearish, but could it REVERSE from here?• AMD is trading at a key support level, around the 61.8% Fibonacci’s Retracement; • In addition, last week, it filled a previous gap at $63.05. This gap is another support level for AMD’s price; • What’s next? Keep in mind, it is still a mid-term bear trend, as AMD is still doing lower highs/lows and it is below the 21 ema. If it loses the $63.05, it’ll just resume the bear trend and the next technical support is at $59.86; • Could AMD reverse the bearish sentiment? Yes, but it has to break the previous high at $67.85, along with the 21 ema; • As long as AMD stays between its main support and resistance levels, nothing new will happen. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:AMD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
NVDA: Key Support/Resistance levels to PAY ATTENTION! [UPDATED]• NVDA did exactly as we expected since my previous analysis on it, as it lost our dual support level, and it hit our target at $150 (the link to my previous post is below this analysis, as usual); • Now, NVDA is in bearish territory, as it did a lower high/low, and it is trading below the 21 ema; • In order to reverse this bearish sentiment, NVDA must do a clear bullish structure, preferable above our support at $150. So far, there’s no clear bullish reaction; • If it doesn’t react, and loses the $150, the next technical support would be the 61.8% Fibonacci’s Retracement in the weekly chart; • Speaking of weekly chart, there’s a key trend line connecting NVDA’s previous top levels (purple line), and NVDA has to break it in order to trigger a long-term bullish reversal structure; • Let’s see if it’ll react above one of its key support levels. I’ll keep you updated. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
AAPL: Pay attention to this Multi Resistance level!• AAPL is stabilizing, and now it seems it wants to bounce. This is expected, since it dropped sharply recently; • Since it lost our previous support at $134 (which I mentioned in our last study – link below this post), I was expecting that AAPL would seek the $128, the next support level, but the bears could only take it to the $129s; • Although this is a bottom sign, the bias is still bearish in the daily chart. The strongest resistance on AAPL, in my view, is the $140 area; • The $140 worked as a support level on Nov 29 – 30 and Dec 07. The 21 ema is at $140 as well. In addition, the $140 is the 38.2% retracement; • Only if AAPL breaks this key resistance area it would truly reverse this bearish sentiment; • For now, AAPL is doing a bottom sign. If it closes above the $134 (red line, previous bottom), it’ll be perfect, as the $134 is supposed to work as a secondary resistance in the short-term. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
SPX: A BOTTOM sign! Pay attention to these Key Points!• The index is reacting above our support level, as expected, and it seems it wants to bounce; • A reaction was already expected, since the SPX just filled our gap; • This is a bottom sign, but the main trend is still bearish. The SPX must break its 21 ema again, in order to resume the bullish sentiment; • In addition, the 3,911 is another key resistance – the 3,911 worked as a support/resistance multiple times in the last semester of 2022; • On the other hand, in order for it to resume the bear trend to the 3,744 (next support, red line), it has to lose the 3,818; • Right now, the index is a no man’s land, but we’ll see some definition soon. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
SPX: Gap filled, another target hit! Next KEY POINTS!• The index filled our gap at 3,818, which was our target since my public analysis on Dec 15 (link below, as usual); • Now, it is trying to lose this technical key point. In this scenario, the bear trend will just continue, and the next technical support is the next bottom at 3,744; • So far, there’s no evidence of a bottom on SPX yet, as it lacks bullish reaction; • If SPX reacts, it could easily bounce again to higher levels, but as long as it stays under the 21 ema in the daily chart, the trend will remain bearish; • We see five bearish candlesticks in a row, which is quite uncommon to see. Either way, the 3,818 is still a key point, as if the index reacts above this area, it still might work as a support. • I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
TSLA: The BEAR TREND continues! Next KEY POINTS [UPDATED].• TSLA is in an incredibly sharp bear trend, and there’s not a single evidence that it’ll find a bottom yet; • In the 1h chart, we see a purple trend line, connecting its previous tops, along with the 21 ema. Both points are working as clear resistance levels; • Only if TSLA breaks this dual-resistance level it might have some chance of recovering – remember, “if”. So far, there’s no bottom sign confirmed yet; • Even if TSLA bounces, the 21 emaq in the daily chart is another resistance level, and TSLA can’t break this 21 ema properly since September; • In the lack of bullish reaction, TSLA is just heading towards our next technical support at $126, as I already mentioned in my previous public analysis (link below this post); • For now, let’s pay attention to these key points. I’ll keep you updated. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
QQQ: BULLSEYE! Gap filled. What's next?• QQQ hit our target, as it filled our gap at $268.50 (red line); • We set this target on our previous public study on QQQ, on Dec 15 (link below this analysis); • QQQ acted according to the technique so far, and there’s no clear bottom sign on it yet; • If QQQ actually loses the red line, the next technical target is the next bottom at $259.08; • Only if we see a good bullish reaction, and QQQ stays above the support at the red line, we might see a bounce on it. In this case, the 21 ema is the next technical resistance; • Either way, QQQ looks interesting. I’ll keep you updated. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
NVDA: Trading in a CRITICAL support level (again)!• In our previous analysis, we nailed the bottom on NVDA, and it went up about 16%, until it gave us a top sign on Dec 13 – the link to our previous analysis on NVDA is below this post, as usual; • Now, we must update our key points; • First, there’s a new support area on NVDA, around the purple line + 21 ema. The trend is still bullish, as long as it stays above this dual-support level; • Any bullish reaction above this dual-support level would be an opportunity to buy. So far, there’s no meaningful bottom sign; • What if it loses the dual-support level? Then the next support is at $155, the second support is at $150. So far, there’s no evidence pointing to a downwards breakout as well; • Therefore, it is time to wait, for either a clear bullish reaction, or a possible breakout of this dual-support. I’ll keep you posted on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra