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Yield Curve Bottom (10s minus 2s) This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining a “long” short-dated bond position with a “short” long-dated bond position, while a flattener involves sale of short-term bonds and purchase of long-term bonds. - CFA Institute
TVC:US10YLong
by jBTCkingaling
1
Bitcoin Has Absorbed $26,500 but What's This?Traders, In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions. However, I spotted something sus on the U.S. treasuries chart and it seems that nobody is really talking about this. Both the 10yr and the 2yr experienced a massive spike! What caused this? TBH, it is causing me some hesitation. Could this be pre-indicative of a credit event of some sort? Thoughts, links, data are appreciated in the comments below. Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
TBT Bull Flag. MACD + RSI DivergenceTBT, the Long Rate Fund; Or short TLT fund is showing signs of strength on the MACD and RSI; with divergences. The previous month saw high volume indicating interest around the current price levels. It is sitting at the 200 SMA. Currently much of the market is pricing in rate drops. However, we have have FOMC on May 2nd, and have been hearing roomers of another rate hike by the FED. If this happens, TBT will likely go up, confirming the divergences on the graph, and breaking out of the current wedge.
AMEX:TBTLong
by loves2spooge
Prediction of next financial downturnAccording to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020. It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue! The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later! It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
TVC:US10Y
by Simon_says
49
Yield Curve Continues to FallAs investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as raising rates (or more hawkish rhetoric) could hurl the yield curve closer to negative territory. We can see the spread has been hugging the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator for some time, which is an extremely bearish sign. Also, the slope of the spread has become increasingly more negative. If you want access to the Kovach Reversals indicator and more, check out quantguy.net.
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy
30 Year, 2 Year Spread Making New LowsThe spread between the 30 year US treasury bond and the 2 year bill has made new lows as the yield curve in the US continues to flatten. Anticipate a pullback at some point, but the curve will likely continue to flatten as investors price in a rate hike despite dovish comments from Bullard at the Fed. This pullback will be confirmed by a green triangle on the Kovach Reversal Indicator. If you're interested in using this indicator, check out quantguy.net.
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy