I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July,...
It would surprise many. So far House prices have been holding up with rates going parabolic Strong economies can usually handle a few years of stable rates in around 5% Supercycle's generally last 16-18 years As we saw in the great Bull run of 1982 to 2000 A repeat of this cycle timeframe: would mean #Bitcoin top 2025 (2009 inception) #Stocks 2026 (march...
As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming...
Mortgage rates will continue to rise, 7% is a conservative target.
My approach to learning trading is to consume and apply what I learned in practical experiences. For that I like to study many different indicators and signals. One in particular I was following last week was the Bond Yield Spread, 30Y - 20Y, as an indicator of Fed Tightening and Liquidity Shocks. A Fintwit Market Expert explains it like this: ----- Spreads...
Mortgage defaults continue to rise. Jumbo rates continue to rise. Conventional rates continue to rise. ________________________________ Jolt Cola ahead next week from the Pelican. Caffeine for Cocaine. ________________________________ The warning signs are broadening.
A great feature of TradingView is the ability to walk-forward price to see the outcome of our analysis. In this video, I revisit a short idea in the Nasdaq 100 Futures Contract and look at potential support levels now that a minor pullback is underway. I also highlight a new short position in the 30Y Bond (ZB1!). I misspoke when pulling up the interest rate...
Rates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at...
Due to Covid 19 the US30Y has drop. When things gets back to normal, should we expect an increase ?
Looking to see if that trend line is the next ceiling
The rate of Bonds is at a very interesting place as highlighted in the chart! In depth exploration in the video below: youtu.be
Set bracket orders. profit. GG. Every day. Enjoy you 300$ daily. * I need to start doing this.
30 year represents long term growth expectations, the 10 year has already broken out as linked below. This down trend is not as clean of a break as that one and will need a continuation after today's test the of February highs. 10s 2s spread hit ~39bps recently now at 49bps. If we get a confirmation the first target is 3.74 as a measured move which happens...
You can see that price is now outside balance area #13 and hit the low of #12 then rejected. The time spent in #13 was significant and i'll be watching to see where the new balance area/trend starts. It's also worth noting that we sit above the 100sma and 200sma
US30 Bonds looking to break higher but for how much longer?
Potential descending triangle with volume confirmation.