USDCHF CUP AND HANDLE PATTERNThe cup and handle pattern is a bit sharpy, could not work but is a good opportunity. RSI normal, USD in currency strength index is oversold and CHF is on the middle. Stop 786 fibonacci, it has two targets, the first is 0.99, if the price can continue forward and validate the pattern it could reach the 1.055 level as a second target
4h
EUR/CAD 4H SHORTEUR/CAD May fall 50-100 pips
Price is forming a symmetrical triangle and may consolidate further before a breakout. Support at 1.5510 has been broken previously, overall the daily trend is upwards but a recent down trend could take price to further lows.
Intraday - 4H
Trade: Sell
Entry 1.5491
Sell or Below: 1.5510
Target TP: 1.5439 & 1.5352
Pivot and Support 1.5510
Alternative scenario:
Trade: Sell
Bur or Above: 1.5510
Target TP:1.5581 & 1.5669
EURJPY 4H TRIANGLE BREAKOUT TRADESTriangles are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart ).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility ) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the volume settings on the chart – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
USDJPY 4H SAR/MA PULLBACK STRATEGYPrice previous Bearish SAR MA Setup.
1 - SAR above price showing Bearish move.
2 - Green 20 SMA crosses below Red 40 SMA confirming Bearish move.
Now price shows a Bullish Pullback with SAR below the price.
Showing Bullish pullback.
Waiting for a Bearish continuation move.
MA already crossed over showing Bearish bias
ENTER WHEN: SAR closes above price.
TP when SAR closes below price.
Find your own SL.
Rule #1- Apply Parabolic SAR system and Moving Average indicators to chart.
Rule #2- The Parabolic SAR Indicator must change to be above price candle.
Notice how the dots were below the price. The parabolic stop and reversal (SAR) formula showed us that the price stalled out for a few hours and then we are waiting for the dot to appear above the candle.
This is a sign that a reversal may be forming.
Rule #3- Another element that must occur is the moving averages must cross over.
In a short trade, the 20 period moving average will cross and go below the 40 periods moving average.
So now the 20 period moving average is below the 40 period moving average. However, something occurred that is notable. The dot then appeared below the price candle.
Since the moving averages are telling us that a downtrend is most likely going to occur, we will wait until the dot appears again above price candle to validate this reversal and enter a trade.
Rule #4- Parabolic SAR dot must be above price candle AND moving averages cross to where the 20 period MA is below the 40 period MA.
Note** One of these elements may occur before the other. The reversal dot can appear before the MA lines cross. Or the Moving averages can cross before the reversal candle. As long as there are both elements, the entry criteria are met.
Rule #5- Enter The Next Price Candle…
Enter (SELL) the very next price candle after the dot appears above the candle. Waiting for one candle after makes sense because this proves to us that this reversal is strong. The moving averages are supporting the downtrend + the dot is signifying a downtrend.
Rule #6- Stop loss / Take Profit
The stop loss you will place 30-50 pips away from your entry. Always look for prior resistance or support to determine a stop loss. In our example, a stop loss was placed 40 pips from entry.
Your exit criteria are when the 20 and 40-period lines cross over again. OR when the dot reverses appears at the bottom of the candle.
This trade would have been a +203 pip profit using the MA cross exit approach. Not too bad.
Some will get out of the trade when the dot appears below the price candle. If that was the case, in this example, you would have got +32 pips instead. Still not bad, but +203 pips sounds a lot better.
So basically you can use either exit strategy. This trade the downtrend was very strong so we stayed in until the MA lines cross. Determine where you are in a trade. If you are up +100 pips and the dot changes to reversal consider getting out then and taking your profit.
Note** Scalpers should not be using a 30 to 50 pip stop with this strategy. Consider your rules and adjust accordingly. A 5-10 pip stop may be more appropriate on that low of a time frame.
Rules for Long Entry.
Rule #1- Apply indicators to chart
Rule #2- Dot must change to be below price candle. This is a sign that a reversal may be happening.
Rule #3– Another element that must occur is the moving averages must cross over.
In a long trade, the 40 period moving average will cross and go below the 20 period moving average.
Rule #4- Dot must be below price candle AND moving averages cross to where 20 period MA is above 40 period MA.
Note** One of these elements may occur before the other. The reversal dot can appear before the MA lines cross. Or the Moving averages can cross before the reversal candle. As long as we have both elements the entry criteria is met.
Rule #5- Enter Next Price Candle. Enter the very next price candle after the dot appears below candle + MA lines cross and 20 period MA is above 40 period.
Rule #6- Stop loss / Take Profit
The stop loss you will place 30-50 pips away from your entry. Always look for prior resistance or support to determine a stop loss.
GBP/AUD 4H LONGGBP/AUD May rise 100+pips
Insight: Price moving in an ascending channel just below resistance at 2.0355 Price is likely to continue upwards and hit resistance before reversing to support at 2.0163
Intraday - 4H
Trade: Buy
Entry
Buy or Above 2.0259
Target TP: 2.0355 & 2.0646
Pivot and Support 2.0163
Alternative scenario:
Trade: Sell
Buy or Above: 2.0163
Target TP: 2.0044 & 1.9948
AUDUSD 30M / 4H PULLBACK LONG TRADETRADING PULLBACK RULES
1 - Find Daily uptrend with HH's & HL's.
2 - Switch to the 30m Time Frame
and Wait for a Pullback
against the Uptrend.
3 - Place Fib between last swing
high and low levels,
prior to the pullback.
4 - Buy Anywhere Between 50% and 61.8% Fib.
5 - Place Stop Loss below Swing Low.
6- Take Profit at break above the
previous Swing High.
USD/JPY 4H LONGUSD/JPY May rise 50-100 pips
Insight - Price has broken out of the ascending channel s hit support at 109.02 Price is likely to reverse to hit resistance at 110.06
Intraday - 4H
Trade: Buy
Buy or Above111.63
Target TP: 110.06 & 110.71
Pivot and Support 109.02
Alternative scenario:
Trade: Sell
Sell or Below: 109.02
Target TP: 108.19 & 107.42
EUR/USD 4H SHORTEUR/USD May fall 70-100 pips
Insight - Price has dropped further at a rapid rate and formed a new downwards trend line with support at 1.0620 and resistance at 1.0804
the downwards trend is steep and price is likely to go down further.
Intraday - 4H
Trade: Sell
Sell or Below: 1.0620
Target TP: 1.0555 & 1.0482
Pivot and Support 1.0620
Alternative scenario:
Trade: Buy
Buy or Above 1.0620
Target TP: 1.0804 & 1.0917
EURUSD 1W 1D 4H TRADESThe weekly chart shows sup/res levels used to take profit levels.
The 4h chart shows entry points.
Bearish trades.
1st sell trade at breakout of triangle bottom @ 1.0663.
1st sell take profit at 1.0560.
2nd sell continuation trade breakout at sup level of 1.0560.
2nd sell take profit at 1.0450.
Bullish trades.
1st buy breakout of top of the triangle.
You determine the entry point.
2nd buy trade at reversal point of 1.0560.
3rd buy trade at reversal point of 1.0450.
All buy trades take profits are at 1.1030 resistance level.
You determine your stop losspoints.
EUR/USD 4H SHORTEUR/USD May fall 80-100 pips
Insight - Price has dropped further at a rapid rate and formed a new downwards trend line with support at 1.0651 and resistance at 1.0827
Intraday - 4H
Trade: Sell
Sell or Below: 1.0651
Target TP: 1.0565 & 1.0487
Pivot and Support 1.0651
Alternative scenario:
Trade: Buy
Buy or Above 1.0651
Target TP: 1.0827 & 1.0936
BTC Reversal Or Death!COINBASE:BTCUSD
BTC Scared the hell out of all of us last week but it looks like sunshine could be on the horizon.
Development of a rising triangle during recovery
4H volume looks like its dropping towards something large
1H volume looks like we have one more "Shoulder of an incomplete Inverse H/S pattern" dip until this larger 4H move
3 Consecutive higher Lows with RSI trending higher in tandem
A peak at the ZECUSD chart shows a quick move towards its 4H 50MA with a initial denial but still recovers higher then where we are now with the other alts and majors
Zcash could be an interesting leader during times like this as LTC and ETH have done in the past.
If BTC breaks the orange line and confirms a 4H + candle above the green, I'd say we are quickly returning to 8k in a hurry...
16/03 current supply and demand curve 4H for the USDThis is the current curve of the actual market condition for the us dollar. 1D and 1W zones are to far away and we have a lot of volatilty, so (to me) this is the HTF curve right now.
Price was already there previously, but it didn't penetrate too much.... so with the right conditions , it is safe to enter again
XAUUSD 4H CHARTXAUUSD 4H CHART
A SLIGHT LOW IS EXPECTED AS INDICATED WITH THE BLUE LINE, THEN TO TAKE STRENGTH AND DRIVE TOWARD THE RISE AS INDICATED WITH THE BLACK ARROW.
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XAUUSD 4H CHART
SE ESPERA UNA LEVE BAJA COMO SE INDICA CON LA LINEA AZUL, PARA LUEGO TOMAR FUERZA E IMPULSARSE HACIA EL ALZA COMO SE INDICA CON LA FLECHA DE COLOR NEGRO.