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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 104)Yesterday I was keeping my eye on the $7,600 level from my seat in the WSOP. Today I was happy to see that my trade didn’t get stopped out like my poker tournament did. The bears held strong at $7,700 and got us to the weekend. Now I am feeling much better about my position (short ETH). We have been creating lower highs and higher lows over the past week and will not be able to consolidate much longer (have been saying this for 3 days). Expect a sharp move to follow once we get a lower low (below $7,535) or higher high (above $7,700). Due to this tight range we are in, the risk:reward seems favorable on a long or a short position. If short then set a stop loss at $7,751. If long then set the stop at $7,524. I would set the profit target for a long at $8,000 - $8,200. I am still maintaining my bearish target of $5,000 for Bitcoin and that is where I would set the target for a short. A short position offers a much better ROI and it is also in line with the trend/momentum. Also don’t forget the bearish TK cross coupled with the close below the 50 period MA on the weekly chart. The 1 hour chart just had a bearish cross on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s. For me that is a good indication that the bearish momentum will start to pick up during my trip back home this afternoon. Until next time trade happily and remember that liking and following is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 103)Yesterday I set a tight stop loss on my short position before hopping in the car to drive to Las Vegas for the WSOP. I found myself wondering where all of the bearish momentum had gone, and I was more than half expecting to get stopped out before arriving at my destination. Resistance held strong and now we are waiting to see what will happen at the $7,600 area. That is where a white line has been drawn to indicate previous resistance/support and it is also where the 50 period MA awaits. The bulls keep moving up support and establishing higher lows. Up to this point the rallies haven’t had any steam, but that will change in the blink of an eye if bulls keep successfully moving up support. Bears have drawn a line in the sand at $7,750 and have been holding strong over the last week. If they can continue holding that area of resistance over the next 24 hours then I expect a significant pullback over the weekend. If you are not in a position then the risk:reward on a short sale is very favorable. I am short ETH:USD with a stop loss set at $627. Cards are in the air for event #19 and it is time for me to take my seat! Wish me luck by smashing the like and following!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 102)Yesterday I said that I did not expect this trading range to hold for another 24 hours. Less than 30 minutes after posting that chart the price started pulling back. However it quickly found support at $7,480 and created another higher low. That had me reconsidering my short position on Ethereum. I moved my stop loss to slightly above the last high ($617.76). If Bitcoin creates a new high above $7,750 then I fully expect to be stopped out. At this point it is starting to feel like we are going to retest the top end of the triangle, however I still feel like it is too early to close out the position. I feel much better about a tight stop loss. @PeterLBrandt posted a chart yesterday evening with a price target of $14,855 for Bitcoin. When he shares a chart I pay close attention! I will have to cut this post a little short as I am getting ready to leave for sunny Las Vegas to play in the WSOP! Wish me luck by smashing the like and follow button!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 101)Yesterday I was watching what happened as we were trading at “strong resistance”. I fully expected to see a lower high lead to an eventual breakdown of the trend (green dotted) and triangle (pink solid) support. After my daily post we got multiple reversal dojis at resistance and that made me feel even more confident in my position. I was surprised to wake up this morning to see Bitcoin still trading above $7,600. I am currently short Ethereum and was equally surprised when I saw it still trading above $600. I don’t believe this range can last for another 24 hours and am expecting a move sooner rather than later. It feels like the bulls are getting exhausted without moving the price. If they are unable to push the price past $7,750 soon then we will get the expected drawdown. If not in a position then this could be a good opportunity to start opening leveraged short and/or selling some spot. I am still watching for a new low below $7,350 and that would be a good confirmation to fully enter. If we create a new local high above $7,800 then it will be time to reconsider. Until next time trade happily and remember that likes, comments and follows are good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 100)Today is the 100th post of the daily update and I want to give a big thanks to everyone who is following! I also want to give an even bigger thanks to the individuals that take the time to like and comment, each one is greatly appreciated! Thankfully I get to make a favorable post on this memorable day. Yesterday I was “expecting a small bounce from $7,385” and wanted to see “the formation of a bear flag under $7,600 resistance.” I also tweeted about a nice head and shoulders pattern on ETH:USD that was just too good for me to pass up. I cancelled my order to short BTC at $7,024 and opened a position on ETH at $594. I added at $583 when the neckline broke and now I am fully entered (target is $305). Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance from $7,450 - $7,600. That is where the 50 period MA is on the 4 hour chart, the 12 period EMA on the daily, as well as established horizontal resistance. If not in a position this is a good risk:reward play. The target remains $4,950. We are currently retesting the triangle (pink) and bull channel that has been holding us up for the past couple months. I am feeling confident that it will breakdown this time around due to how weak the last bounce was. IMO the bulls are already deflated and will be unable to push the price past the current levels of resistance. The only people still buying are high on hopium. Will be watching for a new low below $7,350 and that is when I expect it to get bloody. Conversely, If bulls can create a new high above $7,800 then it will be time to reconsider my position. Until next time trade happily and remember the age old adage: "If you can't beat them, join em!" Sawcruhteez
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 99)Over the last couple days I have been warning about an ideal setup for a bull trap and today it looks like that was the case. Thin order books and lower liquidity make it much easier for a whale(s) to manipulate the price. That person(s)could cause the price to breakout of the 26 day downtrend (red dotted) and push the price above $7,600 without needing as much capital as he would on weekdays. Doing that confirmed the inverse head and shoulders and likely triggered a buy signal for many short term traders. I was watching closely yesterday afternoon and Tweeted a 15 minute chart after the price broke down the trend support. I advised to watch out for $7,640 to breakdown as an indication that this recent bounce is exhausted. Referring back to the 4 hour chart: I am expecting a small bounce at $7,385 where there will be support from the longer term channel (green dotted), the bottom end of the triangle (purple solid) and the bottom end of the bollinger band. If that bounce fails to get past $7,600 and creates a lower high then it will be time to sell the rest of my spot and be on be on the lookout for a short sale entry. The ideal set up for us short term bears would be the formation of a bear flag to confirm under $7,600 resistance. If that occurs then I will be very likely to open my short at that price instead of waiting for a new local low below $7,024. Until next time trade happily and remember that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 98)Yesterday I went to a wedding shortly after making my daily post and have been away from the charts for almost 24 hours. This morning I woke up bleary eyed and am trying to get back into the swing of things after eating way too many carbs for breakfast. The price of Bitcoin continues to grind upward after breaking through the 26 day downtrend (red dotted). The stochastic has re entered the overbought zone on the 4 hour, but it still has plenty of room to go on the 1d-3d timeframes. I warned of a possible bull trap over the weekend when the liquidity would be low and the order books would be thin. The next 24-48 hours should give us a good indication of what the next 7-10 days will look like. We rallied through the 12 period EMA on the daily chart which was pegged as the first major area of resistance to watch out for. Now we are approaching the 26 day EM, which is currently hovering right on $8,000. If we can get through that area then I would expect a continued rally over the following 7-10 days. That would bring us to the next major area of resistance from $8,750 - $8,850 which was outlined in yesterday's post. I am continuing with my plan of selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum at key levels of resistance, and then opening a leveraged short when/if all of the ducks line up in a row. I do not trade with more than 10% of my total roll, so if we do rally back to $10,000 and beyond then I will still be positioned very nicely. However, I am viewing that as very unlikely and will continue to trade accordingly. Until next time trade happily and remember that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 97)Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin approached the 26 day downtrend (red dotted). I was preparing for resistance from that trend line to cause a breakdown of the 5 month triangle (purple) and sell off to $5,000. I have been selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past 48 hours with the intention to buy back. My first order set at $7,550 resistance and then I executed another order at $7,437 as we appeared to be creating a lower high as well as a descending scallop. I also sold some ETH at $565.99 under the same premise. Now that we have made it through the downtrend I am setting my sights on $8,850. I expect us to rally for a couple weeks and retest that price around 6/13 - 6/15. At that point we will be met with major horizontal and trend resistance. Right now the plan is to hold off on selling any more spot until that area. Once we get there I will be ready to confidently unload the rest of my trading roll (<10% of my overall roll). I also have my order open to short if/when we fall below $7,025 and I will consider opening that position at $8,850 based on the risk:reward. It can be very tempting to open a long in the meantime, but for me that is overtrading. Furthermore, this could still easily be a bull trap. I updated the post from yesterday to say that the conditions are ripe for a trap over the weekend when there will be lower liquidity and thin order books. If it is not a trap then we will rally to $8,000 - $8,200 over the next 5-7 at a minimum and will be very likely to retest resistance $8,850. Until next time trade happily and keep in mind that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 96)Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin approached resistance at $7,600. That is the first key level of resistance that was outlined in Day 93 . There was established horizontal resistance (white solid) as well as the 3 week downtrend line (red dotted). I have been expecting a retest of that trendline since 5/25, when I drew the maroon arrow. From here I am prepared for two options. If we breakthrough this area of resistance then I will expect a rally to the next key area ($7,950) that was outlined in Day 93. I will be selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum at each level of resistance, planning on buying back at $5,000 and $300 respectively. Yesterday I made my first sale at $7,550. If we are unable to breakthrough $7,600 in the next 24-48 hours then I will be looking to sell more at this level. I currently have an order set to sell ETH at $609. I also have an order set to open a margin short as soon as/if we create a new local low below $7,024. The target for that trade is also $5,000. The Ichimoku Cloud and 50 week moving average are the main reasons I am confident in my bearish position. The cloud is fully bearish on all time frames from 2 hour - 1 week. It is the first time we have had a bearish TK cross on the weekly cloud since 2015. It is also the first time we have closed a weekly candle under the 50 period MA since 2015. As mentioned in previous posts I expect a rally for the next 0-12 days before continuing the downtrend. We oversold on 5/22 and are just now getting back to equilibrium from that move. Until next times happy trading and keep in mind that likes/comments/follows are greatly appreciated!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 95)Yesterday I reaffirmed my short term bearish outlook, but also mentioned that we could get a dead cat bounce over the next two weeks. In the post where I outlined my reasons for turning bearish I also outlined 5 major areas of resistance that I will be watching out for. The price pulled back yesterday before reaching the first area of resistance that I outlined ($7,675) and I was watching closely to see how much steem was behind that move. As it turned out there was not enough to create a new low and trigger my short sale entry. Instead we created a higher low and have also established a slightly higher high. We are fast approaching the downtrend (red dotted) that has held strong since the 5th of May. This will be the third touch of the trend line and I expect bears to be waiting in numbers. I think this will be the single most important level of resistance. If the down trend can be broken then there shouldn’t be much problem getting back to $8,200. On the other hand if bears overwhelm the bulls at $7,600 then I expect a new local low to come in very quickly. I still have an order set at $7,024 to open a short sale as soon as/if a new low is created. Happy and trading and remember that likes/comments/follows are free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 94)Yesterday I outlined my reasons for turning bearish in my short term outlook of Bitcoin. It was the first post with a sell recommendation since 4/6. In addition I outlined 5 major areas of resistance and said that I expected a rally for the next 2-14 days before continuing the downtrend. I advised to exit all long positions and outlined two ways to build a short position. As far as I am concerned selling a breakdown below $7,025 provides the best risk:reward. I have an order set to open a short for my full position as soon as/if the price falls to $7,024. If the price creates a new local low then it would confirm a breakdown of the triangle and I would expect a large amount of selling volume to follow. From there a retest of $6,000 is highly likely. Right now the plan is to hold onto my short until the major support at $5,000. The other option for entering a short was to stagger sell orders at each level of resistance that were outlined yesterday. The reason that I prefer the former option is because this is Bitcoin and anything could happen once the FOMO buyers see a few green candles. If all goes according to plan then I intend to ‘flip my position’ at $4,950 by closing my short and opening a long. There will be major support waiting at that area. I am very confident that we will get a bounce from there, enough so that I am comfortable betting against the trend. This morning I woke up to see the price pulling back slightly before the first area of resistance that I outlined. That is very bearish and indicates that we could be heading down sooner than expected. It also indicates that the move down is likely to be sharp and swift. If we are going to pullback further then that is the way to do it. The harder and faster we fall the more likely we are to get a reversal that puts an end to this bear market. The other option is 1-2+ years of sideways action and who would prefer that?! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 93)Over the past five days I have been calling for a rally to $7,950. At the same time keeping a close eye on the triangle that started forming on 2/6, which I am considering a no trade zone. Today I have changed my position and would recommend looking for an exit if you have an open long. Depending on your entry there should sill be plenty of time to exit at breakeven or even a small profit over the next couple days. Yesterday I mentioned that the Stochastic had not been this oversold since 8/18/2015. Now %K and %D have crossed over and are posturing back upwards. From here I am expecting a 2-14 day rally before heading back downward. Below I have outlined the reasons which have caused me to turn from fully bullish into a short term bear. I have also outlined the key areas of resistance that I will be watching out for. Finally I have provided the final confirmation that I will be looking for before entering a short position with my entire trading roll. Close below 50 Week Moving Average On Sunday we closed a weekly candle below the 50 period moving average for the first time since 2015. Last time we did that we proceeded to fall by 60% over the next year and it took almost two years to climb back it’s prior value. If we follow a similar path from here then it would put us at $3,000 per Bitcoin this time next year. Weekly TK Cross on Ichimoku Cloud There was a TK cross on the weekly for the first time since 5-26-2014. Shortly afterwards the price proceeded to fall by 73% over the next 7.5 months. That would put us at $2,000 per BTC in the middle of December. Bull div in the OBV shows move money going into Bitcoin over the past three months than coming out. Indicates that a rally should ensue. Did not see this divergence in 2014 and it is one of the only bullish indications that I am still seeing. Volume gap in the Visible range points to $4,200 Areas of Resistance 1. Entry: $7,675 on or around 5/31 (Horizontal & Trend) 2. $7,950 on or around 6/4 (Horizontal & Trend) 3. $8,050 on or around 6/4 (Horizontal & Trend) 4. $8,745 on or around 6/11 (Trend & Daily Fractal) 5. $10,055 (Weekly Fractal) Short Sell Entry A) If price falls below $7,025 in the next two weeks then it is highly likely we will fall by 15%+ and it is also likely we will breakdown through $6,000 support. B) Could also stagger orders to sell levels of resistance outlined above. Set 25% of your roll at each area of resistance and set stop loss above daily fractal at $8,800 or weekly fractal at $10,055 Personal I much prefer the risk:reward of option A. Anything can happen when Bitcoin is rallying and I think it is much more risky to go for the latter option. It does offer a greater rate of return, but is that worth the amount of times you get stopped out shorting against FOMO buyers? One last note about my general philosophy in regards to shorting Bitcoin. I am a hodler and will be until the day I die. I fund my margin account with Bitcoin. Therefor a short sale is a form of a hedge and is not nearly as risky as people can make it out to be - especially in a bear market! I will have my stop losses set and consider it to be a win/win situation. If Bitcoin continues to tank then I will be in a good position with a leveraged short. If Bitcoin rallys through my stop loss then I will be in a better position, based on how much of my personal net worth is invested into crypto. Smash the like and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
GBPUSD Setup Late May / Early JuneGBPUSD has seen a continuous downtrend with no significant pullbacks. However, it is losing downwards momentum in synchrony with USD's loss of upwards momentum. This week or early next week, GBPUSD should be expected to enter a significant retrace. Further, minor retraces in the current downtrend are aligned for harmonic Fibonacci levels, which can be used to estimate a price target. This is a risky trade, as it attempts to catch a pullback rather than enter the trend from a pullback.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn769459