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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 38)Yesterday I was sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see what developed. I was keeping my eye on the red dotted line and the 50 day moving average. The bulls needed to support above the moving average and break the bear trend formed by the red dotted line. Unfortunately the bears won that fight and now it looks like we are heading lower. That made a third point of contact on the red dotted bear trend. Since that has been established it is even more likely that the price will resistance on the fourth point of contact. We have broken down below the longer term bull trend support (green dotted) as well as the horizontal support at $7,000. Not to mention that the RSI is back below 50. The next area of support will be $6,675 and I do not expect that to provide a bounce. We have already bounced from that area twice and it will be much weaker the third time around. If we do break down below that then the next area of support is $6,000. Wish I had better news but those are the technicals as I see it! Until next time happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 37)My short sell was stopped out at break even, now I am sitting on the sidelines and waiting to see what develops. I was very surprised to see $7,250 resistance break and do not have a confident prediction in either direction. So I have outlined my bullish and bearish scenarios arguments. Bullish Above 50 day SMA Back above green dotted bull trend line RSI above 50 (think of this like 50 yard line on football field) Bearish Potential new bear trend forming. Price is testing the red dotted line for a 3rd time. If it resists then it will like resist for a 4th time before reversing Horizontal resistance at $7,750 should be fairly strong I am leaning towards the bullish option, but the overall trend is way too bearish for me to open a long right now. If the price can break through $7,750 then I expect us to retest the longer term bear trend (red solid). If we can break through that then I will be going all in on a long. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
A Tale of 2 flagsSo when you currently look at bitcoin on the 4 hour you'll see it's consolidating into a nicely sized bull flag...usually a really good sign for bulls...but after the last bear pennant had so many fake bearish -and- fake bullish breakouts that its structural integrity eventully collapsed under it's own weight, there's a good chance that any of the upcoming flags could meet the same non-breakout fate/demise in this current market where the main participants are the whales ...So tread carefully...it was upon me trying to reconstruct that busted 4hour bear flag that made me realize while zooming out to the 1 day chart that there was now a nice sized bigger 1 day chart bearflag that was bound to wreack havoc. What's more though when I went back to the smaller charts I spotted a nice sized bullflag on the 4 hour chart ...so we literally have a bull flag encased inside a much bigger bear flag.... who do you think will win out?...All I know is for now I'm still short unless we go above the last highest high around 7220...or if we get down to 6021....whatever you decide to do for yourself just expect the unexpected a all times. and that this is not financial advice thank you and happy easter! Thanks for reading for now I am still temporary short until I see higher highs/higher higher lows to signal the start of a trend reversal
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 35)I am still actively managing the BTC:USD short. $5,000 remains the target. We we hit the $6,000 low on 2/6 I used it to draw a new trend line (green dotted). We have been consolidating on top of that line over the past 48 hours. It appears that $7,000 is holding as resistance and that we should be breaking down here soon. Above $6,850 could provide a good short sale entry if you are not already in a position. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 35)Yesterday I reiterated my short position with a $5,000 target. As of this morning everything is still going according to plan. We just created a new local low and the volume is picking up. The next area of support will be from $5,900 - $6,100. We will likely see some consolidation between $6,000 - $6,500 before dropping further. The harder and faster we drop the more likely it is to be the bottom. This momentum isn't going to turn around without some serious capitulation. I'm hoping that comes sooner rather than later! Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 34)Yesterday I was very surprised to see us bounce off $6,750 support. I mentioned that it could provide a good short entry if not already in a position. I also mentioned that my stop loss had been moved to breakeven ($7,369). Everything remains the same today. I don’t expect us to stay above $7,000 for much longer. Once that breaks I am very confident $6,750 support will follow. Once we create a new local low then I expect some panic to set in and a lot of market sells to follow. $5,000 remains the target for covering my short and opening a long. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 33)Yesterday we broke down through $7,400 and that was my final confirmation to sell. I drew an arrow to $5,000 and that remains the target. $6,650 provided support last night, and I added to my short on that bounce. Now we are heading back to retest that level and I think it is about 95% that it breaks down. Once that happens we will see another big drop, probably down to $6,000. We need to see capitulation before this momentum has any chance of reversing. I wish there was better news to report but those are the technicals that I see. Happy Trading and best of luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
4
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 32)Yesterday I was holding my breath and watching for support to hold above $7,400. I urged to wait for final confirmation and not dump just yet. That confirmation came this morning and now it is time to prepare for $5,000. I have opened a short with that as my target. There should be a lot of support waiting and I do anticipate a bounce. However I am going to be preparing for a longer term bear marking and I will be viewing that as a dead cat bounce which I will be looking to short. I wish I had better news but I have to call it how I see it. Happy trading and best of luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
3
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 31)Yesterday I watched Bitcoin rally from $7,750 and break the 3 day bear channel. I drew an arrow from $8,000 to $8,400 and shortly afterwards watched the price pull back under $8,000. It continued to breakdown to under $7,750 and created a new local low (blue arrow). That is usually when the sell volume drastically increases. Traders wait to see if support can hold and create a double bottom. As soon as that price falls through the bears will pounce. That didn’t happen this time, and instead the price quickly reversed. That was a very good sign at such a crucial juncture. I made multiple tweets saying not to dump just yet as well as to reaffirm my position that we should rally to $8,400. Today I am going to be watching $8,200 - $8,400 for resistance. First we should see the third point of contact on the 22 day bear channel (red dotted). If we get past that then we will meet horizontal resistance at $8,400. If we can get through all of that then we would be on track to test the 3 ½ month bear trend around April 4th. If we can’t get through that resistance and break down below $7,500 again then I expect us capitulate to $5,000. Happy trading and feel free to follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 30)I have been out of town for the last 5 days and was unable to do the Daily Update post. During that time I was able to reflect on my progress and have decided to continue with the daily posts with one small change. Moving forward I will be using the 4 hour chart instead of the 1 hour. Other than that everything will remain the same. This morning I was happy to see Bitcoin break through the 3 day bear trend. Now I expect it to pump up to $8,426 where horizontal resistance will be waiting. If that resistance holds then it would also mark the third point of another bear trend (red dotted line). The good news for the bulls is the higher low that formed at $7,759. That kept us inside the longer term triangle that has been forming over the past 3+ months. If we break down below that trend then there is no stopping us before $5,000. On the other hand the longer we support above it the more likely it is we will see another massive bull run. I am going to remain on the sidelines until one of the two options becomes much more likely. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1day chart closes 2 candles under the 200sma 1st time since 2014It looked as if there was a slight glimmer of a potential bull breakout from this current bear flag on the 4hour chart as the last 4 day candle found a way to close just above the trendline....however we all know that its not an official breakout until we close 1 more additionalc andle above the flag and at the same exact time that 4 hour candle closed above the bear flag trendline the 1 day chart just closed a 2nd confirmation candle below the 200sma for the first time since 2014....definitely not a food sifn...and any positive sentiment the 4hr candle gave buyers is likely to be outweighed by the sentiment the last 2 1 day candles are going to give sellers....Because of this I think probability is high that this next 4 hour candle will not close above the trendline thus invalidating any potential bull breakout from this recent smaller 4 hour bear flag. Further downside is what I anticipate.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
eurusdTriangle formation building with a flat top and higher lows. This from the Daily trendline. Area of resistance 1.2360 which would need to be broken if this market moves higher. If 1.2360 is broken that would be the bullish sign to look for intraday long set ups. If the daily trendline is broken & also the 1.2280 level is broken too that would be bearish signal and then maybe the market moves down to re test 1.2210 and 1.22 handle. Wait for range between 1.2360 and 1.2280 to break and then trade in the direction of the momentum
by alexc91
5
gbpusdGBPUSD - 1.40 handle was key price for this market acting as strong resistance Teus, Wed & Fri. Above 1.40 is the is the descending line of the triangle which could provide resistance, lining up also with 1.4050 adding to the resistance. A break through would be more bullish & could generate intraday long set ups and potentially test of Feb16 high (1.4150). Before I get too long bias, i'd at least like to see this market drive through 1.40 handle and worry about 1.4050 when we get there. If this market breaks below the lower line of triangle next area of support is Feb22 low (1.3860) and the 1.3850 handle, tested multiple times mid Feb as support. Break below here could generate bearish intraday set ups, next support 1.38 handle and low point of Feb09 (1.3760). Interesting intraday technical point 1.3905 & 1.39 handle tested Feb21 & Feb23 as support, was also the low point of the flash crash last Friday. Before i get too bearish on this market I'd like to see the 1.39 handle break to the downside and also take out the Feb22 low. Catalysts: Mrs.May brexit speech on Friday, second speech out of two going in to March EU leaders summit. Any brexit related rumors or headlines GBPUSD still very sensitive too. No real UK economic data releases this week, although US GDP Wednesday & US ISM on Thursday. Any other surprise news releases released could also change the picture as always
by alexc91