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$AUDUSD LongAUDUSD broke above its multi-month trendline yesterday and closed above on a much larger than expected trade surplus and also Chinese gov report they will support the economy with aggressive stimulus in a "do what ever it takes" approach. This positive news comes at a time when Asia Pac FX is extremely bearish and oversold without much in the way of relief. Trade surplus is important for AUD as roughly 30% of Australian GDP is exports (quite a high percentage) making Australia an exporting nation. A trade surplus actually adds value to the GDP. The report showed how exports had risen 1% and imports fell by 1%. The surplus expected to be A$1.8Bn came in north of A$3BN with the prior revised higher too! In China, Australias largest trading partner purchasing 30% of all Aussie exports, the government announced plans, although not yet specific, to use aggressive fiscal stimulus to stabilize the economy. This comes as a reaction to a slowing economy and falling stock market. Keep in mind tariffs havent even had much of a hard impact yet, as Chinese companies front run the impact of tariff the underlying economy is likely worse than the numbers suggest. Slowing China is the reason for AUD sell off since beginning of year, so China gov decision is net positive for Asia - Pac currency. Hense the 2% move higher y'day for AUD, squeezing out short sellers coupled with USD weakness, but AUD & NZD were higher across the board. Overnight, Sources claim that Trump says he is working with cabinate to plan a trade deal with China which added to AUD gains over night, improving risk sentiment, sending the USD sharply lower and equities higher and bonds lower, but as always Gov officials came out few hours later dismissing the claim. On that basis looking to swing the AUD long, but only in the short term, playing a relief rally... i think longer term as of jan time next year, depending on US-China tensions, depending on Tariffs, midterms and general commodity price index, AUDUSD & NZDUSD continue to move lower. Set up is a pullback to retest the broken trendline as support, fib50 and the 7150 handle and play the bounce up to 23Sep high & 73 handle. Risk to reward isnt great on this trade, roughly 3 to 4: 1 depending on stop size.
Long
by AlexClarkFX
2
BTC Stuck under 4 Hour EMA's!Been pretty uneventful few days since our drop through several supports. I personally have been happy in cash and waiting for things to settle down. This allows RSI's to cool off, moving averages to catch up. Sticking with the 4 hour chart, primarily watching the EMA's, 12 and 26 that are always on my charts. Bulls were stuck under 12 EMA and as it came down to meet price after the big drop, I shift to if bulls can get above the 12 EMA, will the bears step in at 26 EMA to knock price back down? Thus far the bears have done this and are keeping the bulls in check. Price has come back down and bulls trying to hold this above $6200. If bulls can get a higher low here compared to $6178 or definitely above $6105 and then move to a higher high above $6288 then the bulls have a chance to get some momentum going. Otherwise, really no interest in the market unless we break below $6k support. RSI on 4 hour has cooled off from 19's to now around 40, giving the bears a nice opportunity to slowly fill their short positions before the next leg down. This has me leaning bearish still but overall this $6k-6.4 or 6.5k range is becoming a now trade zone for myself. Risk/Reward just isn't there for me to enter a trade. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
1
ETH/USD - Longer timeframes signaling down; 4H support holdsChart is Heffae Clouds 4Hour (left) and 8Hour (right) I added arrows to highlight signals you may trade on with the cloud SnR paths. The "target" on the current 4H candle is the RealTime Additive, which is a trend indicator, and can act as resistance here if the trend is to continue down. The 8Hour has signaled a drop out of cloud bottom, which is bearish. Soon price will interact with the Daily: Pictrued is both alternate path preset 1,1 as well as default settings (0,0) Targets 210 -206
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by SNOW_CITY
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 132)Disclaimer: I just returned from my good friends birthday party and am well above the legal limit. I have been drinking and my analysis should be taken with a grain of salt. Long story short - resistance at $6,725 has failed to push the price below $6,390 and we are primed for another $750 - $1,000 pump. Short story long, there is a lot of resistance built up but it isn’t enough at this level. We are too far oversold on the higher time frames to continue dropping further. There is a C-Clamp on the daily and 3 day chart that needs to be rectified and we are too far below the 50 & 200 period MA’s to sustain this drop. A pump to $7,500 is expecting but it is not something to bet on. We are deep in the trenches of a bear market and preparing for a short sale entry should be the priority. As outlined in the last few posts building at short at or above $7,500 is very attractive. To make up for the short post see my checklist below: Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,508 R: $6,620 BTCUSDSHORTS: turning s into r. Still inside triangle. Funding Rates: 0.01% EMA’s (12 & 26): 1d: posturing for bullish cross 4h: crossed at $6K , flattening out and could posture down soon MA crossovers: bearish Candlestick analysis: tweezer bottom on daily, and higher lows. Looks like it is cupping around bearish spinning top. Chart Patterns: head and shoulders could be forming Ichimoku Cloud: tenkan resistance on 4h. At cloud resistance on 12h. C clamps on daily and 3d. TD Sequential: 3d: Green 2 1d: Green 1 Visible Range: Mad resistance and unfilled gap at $5,000 50 & 200 MA’s: below 50 & 200 and both are posturing down BTC Price Spreadsheet: Bollinger Bands: 1d: consolidating above MA 3d: bouncing off bottom band 1w: bouncing off bottom band Trendline: waiting slightly under $5k Fractals: up: $6,800 down: $5,819 On Balance Volume: bear divs w lower high and lower low vs tweezer. Bouncing on weekly Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI < 50 Stoch overbought Yesterday’s analysis: TD 8, weekly dragonfly, bitfinex channel, visible range Thanks for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 131)Yesterday we examined the ema’s crossing over on shorter time frames, the bullish setup on the 4 hour Ichimoku Cloud, as well as the reasons that kept me out of the market while awaiting further development. Today we are going to look at a few reasons why this market could have found a bottom as well a few reasons as a few reasons why it hasn't. Let’s start with the good news and end with the cautionary! There are two indicators that signaled the bottom of the last bear market, prior to the year and a half of consolidation. It was a red 9 on the weekly TD sequential and and a cross on the weekly Stochastic below 12. We haven’t gotten the 9 yet, but fingers are crossed that it will come on this drawdown. If it doesn’t then I expect we have another painful 2+ months in our near future. Now let’s take a look at a chart that I posted on Twitter (same screen name) on 6/11. It is cut off in the picture but the next arrow was straight down to $5,000. The top of that channel is serving as strong resistance and it isn’t alone. There is established horizontal resistance from $6,750 - $6,792 and we can see that it is significant when looking at the visible range volume profile on the daily chart. Building a short with a stop loss at $6,830 with a $5,000 target provides a nice risk:reward. However there are too many oversold indications on the higher time frames - such as the C-Clamps on the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the distance away from the 200 day MA . Now that the bullish indicators are starting to build you might be considering building a long. If so I would suggest using ½ of your position sizing due to betting against the trend and also entering in thirds upon the following confirmations: Red 9 on the weekly | Crossover on the 12 & 26 day EMA ’s | Golden cross on the 50 & 200 period MA’s on the daily chart. Be like a chess player, always thinking moves in advance and never being caught off guard! Thank you for reading! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 129)Current Outlook 1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish 2 weeks - 12 months: bearish 1-2+ years: Super bullish Yesterday we went over the reasons why I changed my short term outlook to neutral/bullish for the next 1-2 weeks and today we will narrow in on how far this bounce can go. The last 4 hour candle challenged the resistance cluster at $6,724 and appears to have failed. Resistance came horizontally and from the 200 period MA . We briefly rallied through before getting shot back down below both points of resistance. The current candle is continuing the pullback and if it fails to support above $6,250 then this bounce will have likely run it’s course. While the 4 hour chart is looking fairly ugly, the higher time frames still look just fine. The rest of this post will be looking at the daily chart, which still shows plenty of room left to rally. The daily Ichimoku Cloud shows two key areas of resistance: the Kijun-sen at $7,845 and the bottom of the cloud at $8,045 The TD Sequential is showing a green 5 out of 9 with major resistance at $7,700 (green dotted). The Visible Range Volume Profile is showing resistance stacked up from here to $8,600 with $8,150 being the most significant. When multiple indicators are painting the same picture it is usually time to make a big bet. Building a short from $7,770 - $8,150 with stop loss at $8,650 looks like a really good position. Before than can happen we need to rally through $6,800 and $7,000 resistance. With how bearish this market has been that will be much easier said than done. If we create a new low below $6,250 then I will expect the drawdown to continue before we are able to retest the major areas of resistance outlined above. Thank you for reading and have a Happy Independence Day! Until next time drink responsibly, eat heartily, be social and smash the follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 127)Yesterday we looked at the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart and I expected that to provide the support needed to break through the downtrend line that started on 5/5. We did end up breaking the trend line and now I expect a sustained rally for the next 1-2 weeks. We have a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s for the following time periods: 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, and 6h. The EMA’s are posturing for a crossover on the 12 hour chart and we are currently testing the 26 EMA on the daily chart for resistance. If we range in between the 12 & 26 EMA’s on the daily chart before getting a crossover then a strong rally would be expected to follow. The 50 period MA is starting to posture upwards on the 4 hour chart and indicates that a crossover with the 200 period MA is likely in the near future. We just got a tweezer top on the 4 hour chart combined with a bearish spinning top . That won’t be nearly as powerful as the tweezer on the weekly chart but it could be an indication that this current rally has come to an end. If we are unable to rally past $6,800 resistance over the next couple days and we create a lower low below $6,275 then I will likely be opening a short immediately. In the post from yesterday I was expecting a bounce to $7,275 and I still feel good about that projection. Nevertheless I am sitting on my hands and waiting for further development. I remain firmly bearish for the rest of 2018 and would need a perfected setup in order to take on a bullish entry in this market (such as buying LTC at $50). The Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart shows the next levels of resistance at $7,879 ( Kijun-Sen ) and $8,094 (Cloud retest). If we do rally back to those prices then I would be viewing it as a high probability short and opening a large position. Inexperienced traders will be running around like a chicken with it’s head cut off in this market. Do not let that happen to you. Have a plan, then patiently execute it with confidence. Have a backup plan and always be looking at the market from both sides. If you are feeling emotional then take a break and use smaller position sizing next time. If you want to open a long right now, then why didn’t you do it at $5,800 - $6,000? It's because you don't have enough confidence in your position and are following instead of preparing. If you want to open a short right now I would recommend waiting patiently because this bounce still has plenty of room to go. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 126)Yesterday we went back to the drawing board after the trailing stop losses were triggered on my ETH:USD and BTC:USD shorts. I am 99% certain that we are yet to find a bottom, therefore I am preparing for the next bearish entry. If you missed yesterday’s post I would recommend giving it a read. I outlined major areas of resistance and it should give you a good idea about how to start the process of finding a trade. Today is Sunday and it is the first of the month, so this post will be about analyzing the longer term time frames. The current rally found resistance at $6,500 and is retesting $6,250 support. The long wick which pushed the price from $6,500 down to $6,400 is a bad sign for the bulls. It tells me that the FOMO buyers were easily thwarted by the bears at that level. The weekly candle is going to close in a few hours. If the price holds above $5,823 then we would get a nice tweezer bottom. I would expect that to provide the support needed for the bulls to breakthrough the trendline (red). From there a bounce to $7,275 would be likely. The well defined support and resistance areas combined with the downtrend line is why I would be expecting a bounce to $7,275. If that does happen then I would be viewing it as a high probably short sell. The Stochastic on weekly chart also had it’s first crossover below 11 since 1-12-15. That effectively marked the bottom of the last bear market prior to the year of consolidation. This indicator made me reconsider my confidence level in regards to the market finding a bottom. If the Stochastic is marking the bottom like it did in 2015 then we still have a long time to consolidate. If we range between $5,823 and $7,275 over the next 3+ months then I will start calling for the bottom. Until we see some serious capitulation and/or months of ranging in a tight zone then I will remain confidently bearish. Based on the likelihood of a tweezer bottom and the recent cross on the Stochastic I am expecting a strong bounce from here. However, I am not nearly confident enough in that projection to bet against the trend. Therefore I will be waiting to sell the bounce on BTC and alts. If you are not currently in a position I would recommend doing the same. Thank you for your time! Have something to add? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 125)Yesterday we identified a bear flag (red triangle) and adjusted the stop losses based on Bill Williams Fractals from the daily chart. The flag failed to confirm with a breakdown below $5,776. Instead we got a double bottom that led to my stops being triggered on BTC:USD and ETH:USD. Yesterday was a great example of why I have been saying that shorting alts vs BTC is the safest bet. When BTC pumps in a bear market alts often FOMO back into it and/or have trouble keeping pace. I set a tight stop loss on my ETH:BTC short at 0.0731 which will ensure that position is profitable. That stop has not been triggered even with all of the volatility from yesterday. Trading is very stressful and I like to detach from the markets after getting stopped out. Today I played in a golf tournament and went out for Mexican food and margaritas afterwards. Keep that in mind when reading the analysis below! For me this weekend is about resetting and going back to the drawing board. I am 99% confident that $5,775 was not the bottom and will be preparing for the next bearish entry. Therefore I will be trying to figure out how much further this dead cat can bounce. Below is a rough draft of my next entry. I like to start by looking at all of the indicators that have proven to be useful in the past. Always beginning with higher time frames before zooming in. The visible range volume profile illustrates buying and selling volume for specific price points. This is a very useful tool for determining major areas of resistance and support. On the daily chart we are seeing large volume at $6,762. That is where there was significant support and we should expect that price to turn into significant resistance. When zooming into the 4 hour chart we get a more detailed view. It is showing three significant areas of volume at: $6,506, $6,731 and $7,544 The moving averages on the daily chart should also help to determine major areas of resistance. Below are the 50 (green) and 200 (orange) period MA’s. Notice that the 200 period MA is starting to posture downwards. That is a bearish indicator and is why I drew the area of resistance (red box) at $8,800. It should continue moving downwards as the price moves up. Below is the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart with 20, 60, 130, 30 settings. It will illustrate potential areas of resistance with the Tenkan-Sen , the Kinjun-Sen and the Cloud. As you can see the Tenken-Sen has been an area of strong resistance over the past two weeks. The next levels to watch out for are $7,750 where the Kijun-Sen is waiting and $8,000 where the bottom of the cloud hovers. Nothing outlined above is a trade recommendation, it is nothing more than going back to the drawing board. Over the next couple days I will be refining my outlook and expect to have more specific trade recommendations. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 124)Over the past couple days we have been examining the short selling volume as it relates to the price of Bitcoin. I noted that the shorts had fallen off drastically while the price had remained flat/fallen slightly. That told me that the only buyers above $5,900 were short sellers taking profit or getting liquidated. On day 122 I wrote: “I am expecting the shorts to continue to decrease down to 22,765, which is where I have drawn the white horizontal line to illustrate support. From there I am expecting a sharp reversal in short sellers and another drawdown in Bitcoin” The rebound in short sellers led to the lowest daily close since 11/12/2017. That is when I expected to see selling volume increase significantly. Instead we are consolidating into a bear flag (red) at support (white). The measured move for the flag is $5,590 and it would confirm with a breakdown below $5,882. If we bounce from here then I am expecting prior support to turn into resistance at or below $6,072. The stop losses on my short positions have been adjusted based on the Bill Williams Fractals from the daily chart. Those have been move to: BTC: $6,378 ETH: $451 If you are not in a position then you have a couple options: (1) You could wait for confirmation of the bear flag from above and enter upon a breakdown of support. The stop loss for that trade would be the top of the flag at $5,943. (2) Or you can remain on the sidelines in order to start preparing for the next bounce. BTC ETH LTC I currently have orders to buy LTC at $61.75 | $55.51 | $49.76 | $33.60 I think LTC is the best option for a couple reasons: it has been oversold more than the other two and it offers a better potential ROI at approximately 100%. BTC and ETH would have a target closer to the 50% range. $50 is also a very strong area of support for LTC. Bitcoin would need to fall to $4,000 - $4,200 and Eth $290 - $305 to reach the same levels of support. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 123)Yesterday we took a look at the short sellers on Bitfinex in relation to the price of Bitcoin. I noted that the shorts had fallen drastically while the price of BTC remained flat. That told me that the only buyers at this level are short sellers who are covering or getting liquidated. I predicted the shorts to continue to fall to 22,765 before a sharp reversal. That is where I expected the shorts to pick back up and the price of Bitcoin to fall back down. The momentum appears to be reversing at 22,800. With how sharply the short sellers have fallen off in the past 48 hours I really would have expected to see the price of Bitcoin rise. Instead it has fallen itself. I am taking that as a very bearish indication. Once the short sellers are on the rise again it will almost certainly push the price down. I am expecting a breakdown of $5,900 support by 7/1. That is based on the cluster of resistance from the trendline (red), prior support turned into resistance (white) and the 12 period EMA on the daily chart (teal). The short term EMA's (12 & 26) have a bearish crossover on the following timeframes: 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, 12h, 1d, 3d, 1w. It is often best to wait for all of the time frames to paint the same picture before making an entry. That is currently the case with the moving average crossovers and I have found that to be one of my most reliable indicators. The price has been stuck in a range over the past week from $6,100 - $6,300. Once we get a move outside of that zone I am expecting a big move. If you are not currently in a position then opening a small short at the current price and added to it upon a breakdown of $6,100 should work out nicely. If you have the ability to short alts vs USD or BTC that should be the best bet. I am currently short BTC:USD, ETH:USD, and ETH:BTC. The stop loss and profits targets are as follows: BTC Stop: $6,876 Target: $4,950 ETH Stop: $556 Target: $360 Stop losses are based on the most recent Bill Williams Fractal from the daily chart. Profit targets are based on trendlines, prior support and FIB retracement levels. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 122)Yesterday I added to my short position after the hanging man candle on the 4 hour combined with the bearish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the hourly. I have been expecting the breakdown of $5,900 support since last Saturday and am viewing this current bounce as the final short squeeze before the sell off. The amount of shorts has fallen significantly over the past 5 days. I would expect to see a rise in price to reflect the short sellers covering their positions and/or getting liquidated, however that has not been the case. Bitcoin has remained stagnant while the shorts have been getting rekt. I am viewing this as a bearish divergence. I am expecting the shorts to continue to decrease down to 22,765 which is where I have drawn the white horizontal line to illustrate support. That could happen in the next few hours or days. From there I am expecting a sharp reversal in short sellers and another drawdown in Bitcoin. The previous 4 hour candle closed in the shape of a hammer or a hanging man. It is very hard for me to decipher this one. Hanging men come after a rally in the price and a hammer must follow a sell off. This candle followed a very small rally and that is why some would view it as a hanging man. Prior to the small bounce was a significant sell off and it could be argued that this is a hammer. Which one do you think it is? The 15 minute chart is painting a pretty clear picture of support turning into resistance. The bulls are fighting hard to keep the price above $5,900 however they seem to be losing the fight slowly but surely. The number of traders that are still bullish on Twitter and Reddit is the primary reason why I am certain that we are yet to find a bottom. The profit target for my short remains at $4,950. That is due to trendlines and previous support/resistance. One last thing to note is how well that lines up with the 0.382 FIB Retracement level which is showing up at $4,976. The stop loss remains $6,876 and that is due to the most recent Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart. If you are not in a position then you can start to build a short at the current levels and plan to max out your position upon a breakdown of $5,900. If you have the ability to short alts vs BTC or USD then that should be the safest bet. I am currently short BTC:USD | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC and I sold my spot positions in EOS and LTC. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez