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BTCUSD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 114)Over the last seven days I have been calling for a reversion to the mean after overselling on the 9th and 10th. For me that means a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart. That is where I expect to see strong resistance from the bears lead to an eventual breakdown of $6,000 support. I have been holding onto my short since 6/4 and am still feeling very confident about my target of $4,975. We are currently trading at a resistance cluster on daily chart: horizontal (white), trend (red), 12 day EMA (teal). Over the past week I have been listing a number of trade setups. The one I like the most is opening a short for 50% of your desired position at the current level of resistance. If the price does rally through then you can add on the rest of your position at $6,950 - $7,150. If it doesn't then you can add the rest after getting a new swing low (below $6,300) I do not expect the rally to be able to sustain through that price. My stop loss is still set slightly above that area. That is due to the Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart. The four hour chart just closed a shooting star at the resistance cluster mentioned above. That is a good indication of this rally coming to an end. Thank you for your time! Have a question? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 113)On June 11 in the 106th daily update I said that the price of Bitcoin was oversold and said that it is very important not to chase after a move of 10% in less than 24 hours. That was primarily based on how far we had fallen below the 12 period EMA (teal) on the 4 hour and 1 day chart. I said we would either get a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or see days of consolidation. The latter option was the most bearish option that I saw. It tells me that the market does not have enough demand to create a short term rally. Bears are lining up at each point of resistance and they are winning. Let’s take a look at the 15 minute chart. As you can tell the bears seem to be in full control. Steadily breaking down areas of support and strongly holding the areas of resistance. Currently the major area of resistance is $6,500 (white line) and the major area of support is $6,375. Over the past 5 days the price has consolidated into a triangle (orange) and is currently resisting the 12 period MA on the 4 hour chart. I would still like to see a retest of the 12 day MA before feeling comfortable that the price has returned to equilibrium. As you can see there is still quite a bit of room between the price and the EMA. This could allow for whales to create a bear trap. I expect a lot of traders have their stop loss set above $6,555 (white line) and/or right above the triangle. A pump to $6,700 would trigger those stops and also retest the 12 day MA, which I expect to act as strong resistance. If not in a position then there are some good options still on the table. Keep in mind that these prices are taken from Bitstamp and would need to be adjusted for your exchange. SEE BELOW!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
6
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 112)Over the last week I have been wanting to see the price return to equilibrium after being oversold on the 6/9. For me that would require a retest of the 12 period EMA on the daily chart. The price could continue ranging between $6,300 - $6,600 until running into the moving average or it could spike up to $7,000 which is where it currently waits. That is where there will be strong resistance which I expect to cause a new low below the $5,979 capitulation on 2/6. Once a new low is created then I expect a very significant selloff to follow. I am still holding my short and have set up stop loss above the most recent daily fractal ($7,811 for BTC | $613 for ETH). My profit target remains $4,975 and $305 respectively. If not in a position then now is the time to be proactive while the price continues to work its way towards equilibrium. My strategy has been to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC & ETH and open a leverage short on ETH:USD/ETH:BTC. I am currently fully positioned and feeling great about it. For those still looking for an entry a few have been outlined below 1) Sell BTC:USD at 12 day EMA. Save some (at least 50%) to sell the 26 day EMA in case price continues to rally. If price doesn't continue to rally then refer to #4 to enter the other 50%. 2) Sell ETH:BTC. Currently at trend and horizontal resistance cluster 3) Sell LTC:BTC. Recently broke major area of support and is consolidating after a bear flag 4) Wait for new swing low below $7,300 and then open short on BTC or ETH. I am reminded of a Tweet that I read from @PeterLBrandt on twitter that well along the lines of: “When long, buy the strongest asset in the class. When short, sell the weakest.” I focus on BTC, ETH and LTC. Right now I would say that LTC is the weakest but I do not have the ability to short it on my exchange. Therefor ETH was my best option. I believe the ETH:USD offers the greatest chance for ROI and shorting ETH:BTC is the safest option. I will often go weeks without finding a trade that I would take or recommend. Lately there has been an abundance of trades that give me a high confidence interval and offer a great risk:reward. When I list out 4+ options do not let it overwhelm you. Focus on what you think is the best bet and then carefully consider how much risk you are willing to take. Calculate how much you would lose (if stopped out) and how much you would win (if hitting the target) BEFORE ENTERING. This could help you to decrease your position size or avoid the trade all together. If you feel too anxious or in too much of a hurry to go through a couple simple calculations then you are FOMOing! Thanks for your time! Smash the like if you found this helpful and click follow so that you do not miss out on future updates! Have a question? Leave a comment!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 111)Yesterday I was watching closely as the price of Bitcoin was being squeezed in between the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the 4 hour chart. It is common to see the price consolidate on top of the shorter term EMA and below the longer term EMA. That is essentially what Bollinger Bands are illustrating when they tighten. Usually a bullish crossover will follow and we will get a nice pump in the price. In a bull market this can be a very reliable entry signal. However, we are deep in the trenches of a bear market and that is when those signals are often nothing more than a trap. With this much bearish momentum a false signal/peakthrough is very likely. That is when the crossovers occur and buyers get trapped. In that scenario we would see the moving averages quickly cross back over into a bearish posture and strong resistance from the price where the crossover occurred. We still have not retested the 12 period EMA on the daily chart and that is what I’ve been waiting for as an indication that we have returned to equilibrium after being oversold on the 6/10. Yesterday I lined out three possible trades. Option number 2 was to open a short after falling below $6,300. If not in a position today then that still looks like the best bet. If you went with option number 3 and sold the LTC:BTC bear flag then you should already be in the money. The other option was to wait for the bounce to take us to $6,950 and that is still an option for the traders who are more patient. If I wasn't in a position I would hesitate open a short after falling so far and would likely be waiting to sell the 12 & 26 period EMA's on the daily chart. I am going to a wedding this afternoon and will be away from the charts for the next 24 hours. It will be a great day for me to gain perspective and create memories! Thank you for your time! Smash the like if you found this helpful, and hit the follow so you don’t miss out on future updates!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 110)Two days ago I made a nice call that had me feeling very prepared for the price pump we got yesterday : “I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.” I was tweeting like a mad man all day saying to sell BTC:USD, ETH:USD, ETH:BTC, and LTC:BTC. In the daily update I outlined those positions ahead of time so that there would be plenty of time for anyone who wanted to position themselves accordingly (refer to to day 107 ). From here it is still possible to see the pump continue for another 1-5 days. The price is currently being squeezed in between the 12 & 26 period EMA’s and they could make a bullish crossover in the next day or so. That would create a third higher low and would likely send the price right back to $7,000. If we get a close below the 26 period EMA, or the price falls below $6,350, then I would fully expect this pump to be over. Entries If you are not in a position then there are a few options still on the table. 1) Scale into a short or out of spot at upcoming levels of resistance - $6,950 | $7,150 2) Short or sell spot as soon as the price falls below $6,300 3) Short alts vs BTC - LTC is forming a bear flag after breaking down a major level of support Stop Loss My philosophy about trading is a simple one. I believe I first learned the sentiment from Peter Brandt on Twitter. ‘Diligently manage stop losses and let the profits take care of themselves.’ I am using Bill Williams Fractals on the daily chart in order to actively manage my stop losses: BTC:USD - $7,776 ETH:USD - $618 ETH:BTC - 0.0815 LTC:BTC - 0.01601 The stop losses will be moved up once a new up fractal prints on my chart. It doesn’t appear that the ruling from the SEC will have an impact on the technicals. ETH:USD and ETH:BTC got a nice green candle immediately following the news, but turned around right where the trend suggested. Thank you for your time! Be sure to comment if you have something to say! Smash the like if you found this helpful! Click follow so that you won’t miss out on future updates!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 109)Today I would like to start with a quick overview from the last couple weeks. I am not one to toot my own horn, but it seems like that is the only way to gain credibility in this space. 5/28 was the last day that I was bullish. I recommended a short term buy at $7,250. That was based on how far the price was from the 12 & 26 period EMA ’s on the 4 hour and daily chart. I turned bearish the next day because of the Ichimoku Cloud as well as the 50 week MA. Below is the weekly chart. I had been bullish since 4/6 due to the weekly cloud, support from the MA, overleveraged shorts and breaking the down trendline. Once that changed I was forced to join the bad news bears. Due to the change in my outlook I immediately recommended to exit all bullish positions on the 29th and start preparing for a bearish entry. That was after a nice little pump and the price was trading above $7,400. My gameplan was (and still is) to scale out of alts, sell spot BTC & ETH and open a leveraged short. I got out of all alts that were in profit or within 2% of breaking even. On 6/9 I said to sell when the price of Bitcoin was trading above $7,600. By that time I was fully positioned and patiently waiting for the breakdown of the triangle. I sold ¼ of my BTC at an average price of $7,204 and sold ETH at an average of $582.41. I opened a 5X leveraged short on ETH:USD from $583.41 - $607.43 and did the same for ETH:BTC from 0.07479 - 0.07847. Yesterday I was strongly expecting a bounce off of the 4 hour hammer candle to get us back to the short term EMA’s. Here is a quote from the daily update: “I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation.” We did get a bounce, but it has not gotten anywhere close to the 12 day EMA and now we are looking at a very significant bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour. If we turn back around today and go on to create a new swing low below $5,964 then we will likely get to my $4,975 target in the next 2-5 days! That would be the most bearish possibility that I can think of. It may seem counterintuitive but if that happens it would be a great opportunity to cover my short and open a long position. The harder and faster that the price falls into support the more likely we are to get a significant bounce. There will be a lot of support waiting to buy Bitcoin at $5,000 and Ethereum at $300. So much so that I will feel fully comfortable trading against the trend with a leveraged position. But that is only if we fall hard enough beforehand. CONTINUED BELOW...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 108)Over the last couple days I have been calling for a reversion to the mean. I expected to see days of consolidation or a quick bounce back to the 12 & 26 day EMA’s on the daily chart. In yesterday’s post I outlined 4 potential entries. Two have yet to come to fruition (short BTC after bounce or consolidation) and the other two are already well into the money (short ETH & LTC against BTC). I also mentioned the bear flag (blue lines) but said that I didn't think it would be able to complete right away due to being oversold at support. I did not expect us to break down below the 4/1 low of $6,432 before retesting the EMA’s. As it turns out the bearish momentum has carried us right through the trend support (red dotted) and any horizontal support that might have been expected from the prior swing low . Now I am watching a nice capitulation wick forming on the current candle that could turn into a hammer or a dragonfly . Those candles are my best indicator of an upcoming bounce. However there is still over an hour left before the close. If it closes below $6,200 then I would expect us to continue downward for a retest of the February 6th low at $5,964. That also happens to be the target for the bear flag from yesterday. If it closes above $6,200 then a short term reversal is likely. If we do not get a bounce off of the capitulation wick that is forming then I expect it to come from an A-B-C-D three drive pattern that bottoms at $5,964. I will not be buying that, nor will I be covering my short. I will simply be planning for a natural flow of price movement and doing my best to be prepared. I firmly believe that a short term bottom lies somewhere in the range of $5,964 - $6,123. From there I expect to see a 1-7 day rally that retests the short term daily EMA’s (12 & 26). If not currently in a trade then I strongly advise against opening a bearish position right now. Wait for the bounce, and/or multiple days of consolidation. I am still holding onto my ETH:USD short positions from $583 - $607 and still feel good about my profit target of $300 - $350. I am also short ETH:BTC from 0.074 - 0.07847 and will plan on holding onto that for a while with a trailing stop. Thank you for reading! Comment if you have something to say! Follow if you found this helpful and remember that clicking like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 107)We have been consolidating into a bear flag pattern over the last 36 hours. However I believe that we are too far oversold for it to complete any time soon (next 1-2 days). I am basing that on how far away we are from the moving averages on the 4 hour chart as well as the daily. I am still feeling good about my prediction from yesterday , that we will either bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or consolidate until finding equilibrium. In my opinion we would need to retest the 12 period EMA on the daily chart before we will create a new local low below $6,636. If not in a position then there should be a couple very good opportunities over the next couple days. Here are a few ideas: 1) Layer orders to sell spot or open a short from $7,000 - $7,200 as outlined in yesterday’s post 2) If we consolidate below $7,000 then sell spot or open short at the 12 & 26 period EMA’s on the daily chart 3) Short ETH:BTC and/or sell spot today. Facing strong resistance from trend and moving averages. Open with 50% of intended position. Add the rest after it breaks below 0.618 fib support (0.07529) 4) Short LTC:BTC and/or sell spot if breaks down below 0.015. Profit target is 0.01 Don’t let yourself get caught up in the fear and doubt that comes with bear markets/big drawdowns. That is how you miss golden opportunities. Right now is the time to be thinking ahead and preparing your next move. Also don't let yourself get overwhelmed with all of the possibilities. Focus on one trade and execute it to the best of your ability. Be like a chess player who is always thinking multiple moves in advance. Be confident in your plan and stick to your guns. Be like a sniper who is always checking the conditions and steadily taking aim, but rarely taking a shot. When the target is finally in the crosshairs do not hesitate pulling the trigger! Thank you for reading! Comment below if you have something to say, smash the follow if you found this helpful and remember that clicking like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 106)Yesterday I made a post right as the price was testing the triangle that started forming on 2/6. I expected a small bounce to $7,450 before eventually breaking down that support and creating a new local low. I made a post when the price was at $7,200 and labeled it as a short. The red arrow that gets printed on my chart didn’t show up until 8 hour later when the price had already fallen to $6,840. I wanted to clarify that I would never recommend opening a short after the price pulled back over 10% in 24 hours. That is when it is very important not to chase. Instead it would be time to prepare for the next possible entry. Due to how fast and far we have fallen in such a short amount of time I am expect a reversion to the mean. That could come in the form of a bounce to $7,000 - $7,200 or it could come through days of consolidation . The market is way too bearish to consider longing in this spot. This is the time to plan for the next bearish entry - if you are not already in a position. What I would do is set bids at $6,975 and $7,175 to open a short and/or sell spot. I would make each order for 25% of my trading roll. If we continue to bounce up to $7,400 then I would add another 25% and set a stop loss anywhere from $7,550 - $7,775 (depending on your risk appetite). I would also set an order for the rest of my position to trigger if and when the price creates a new local low below $6,624. There would be either 25%, 50%, 75% or 100% of the roll left to enter. If we consolidate instead of bouncing then I would enter 100% after breaking down below $6,624. If the price resisted $7,000 and then pulled back there would be 75% of the roll left to enter. I think you get the idea. Another good trade that is on the table is shorting the ETH:BTC pair. It hasn’t moved much at all in the last 48 hours but it has been steadily finding resistance at the 50 day MA . Historically shorting alts vs Bitcoin is a very safe bet in a bear market. I am in the process of building a position myself. Using the strategy outlined above I am currently 50% entered and am waiting patiently for further confirmation. I am also happily holding onto my ETH:USD short which a target of $305. If the bear market has you feeling down then go outside and get some sun! If that doesn’t help then talk to someone about how you are feeling. As always feel free to shoot me a message if you need someone to talk to! Until next time trade happily and remember that liking/following is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
EUR/USD- 4hr Chart Trend Scanner & Momentum The current intermediate active momentum is bearish but the bullish impulse wave is active until trendline is broken to the downside. Harmonics are loosely forming and there is the begging of a wedge with a weak top at its first point. Bulls have been back in control since may 29th and currently need more confirmation before returning to major bearish momentum. Indicators are showing signs of intermediate bearish momentum aswell and a recent change in direction as of July 7th. A continuation of the active momentum is most likely but news this week on both sides could create a very volatile and choppy price action. Major momentum is bearish so the pullback seems possible and the last scanner signal was bearish giving me the bias to the downside. But the extension of the active bullish wave and a push up to higher levels is also something to consider. We have not yet broken the trendline and the finished the week with a bullish candle pattern. Even though it is a bearish red candle on the scanner, the pattern is still bullish. I will be tracking the price action on the trend scanner this week and scalping the minor waves within the active momentum. I use this platform to create a record which I can review to continue evolving and adapting my charting systems. This is not trade advice or signals . So trade with care, peace and pips. Hope it helps and crush the markets this week traders! - Grateful Chart Artist
by davistradingforex
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 105)On day 93 I made an important update after changing my short term outlook to bearish. At that time were we severely oversold and I called for a “2-14 day rally before heading back downward.” I expected that to provide a nice window of opportunity to get fully positioned before the next big move downwards. My strategy was to sell spot ETH & BTC, scale out of alts and back into BTC and also open a leveraged short. I still have a little spot BTC to sell and some alts left that I would love to get out of (at breakeven) but overall I am very happy with my position. I am going to wait for further confirmation before selling the rest of my spot (max 15% of total roll). To execute that order I want to see a lower high below $7,500 or a breakdown of $7,100. We are currently retesting the triangle that dates back to 2/6 and are getting a few reversal candles. Starting with what can be considered an inverted hammer , a spinning top and a doji . From here I am expecting a bounce to $7,450 and then a breakdown of $7,100. If not in a position there should still be time over the next 6-24 hours to set up a bearish trade. Until next time trade happily and compound heavily! Smash the follow for daily updates of the Bitcoin price action! Don't forget that liking is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
USD/JPY - 4hr Chart Trend Scanner & Momentum The 4hr trend scanner currently looks bearish and has not given signal to intermediate upside yet. Indicators are showing signs of intermediate momentum bearish with short term momentum oversold and needing a minor bullish pullback. If we get the pullback I am expecting price action to respect the major wedge trendline and embed another head and shoulders. If we were to embed the H/S it would consolidate price into the major news happening later in the week which would give confluence to the technical and the news. If price does re-test the wedge upper trendline it could put us very close to breakout zones to upside. So confirmation of the breakdown H/S and continuation of the current intermediate momentum needs to happen before short is active. Closes below minor trendlines trend scanners will dictate direction of the intermediate momentum which I will be following closely. It is also likely that price could break out early in the week and then pull back sharply with the news down to wedge tip. It is typical for fractal cycles to break out of wedge wave 1 and pull back sharp wave 2 to the tip of the wedge when continuing a major impulse. There are a few harmonics forming which have finished point C and are looking for direction to D. The major news this week should give a direction and an idea of which harmonic will play out. Fib levels and harmonics coincide in both directions and confirmation is needed to determine which one will play out. Price action is at a very pivotal location in the fractal cycle and soon there will be a nice extended impulse out of this consolidation. Looking for confirmation of direction is advised before entering either long or short for swings or long term positions. Scalping the consolidating waves is still giving room for decent range and price action has showed respect to the wedge in the past. Moving forward into this week I will be scalping the short term waves within this intermediate momentum. At times like this when we are approaching the tip of a wedge it is important to understand the possibility of an unexpected move in either direction. I use this platform to create a record which I can review to continue evolving and adapting my charting systems. This is not trade advice or signals. So trade with care, peace and pips. Hope it helps and crush the markets this week traders! - Grateful Chart Artist
by davistradingforex
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 104)Yesterday I was keeping my eye on the $7,600 level from my seat in the WSOP. Today I was happy to see that my trade didn’t get stopped out like my poker tournament did. The bears held strong at $7,700 and got us to the weekend. Now I am feeling much better about my position (short ETH). We have been creating lower highs and higher lows over the past week and will not be able to consolidate much longer (have been saying this for 3 days). Expect a sharp move to follow once we get a lower low (below $7,535) or higher high (above $7,700). Due to this tight range we are in, the risk:reward seems favorable on a long or a short position. If short then set a stop loss at $7,751. If long then set the stop at $7,524. I would set the profit target for a long at $8,000 - $8,200. I am still maintaining my bearish target of $5,000 for Bitcoin and that is where I would set the target for a short. A short position offers a much better ROI and it is also in line with the trend/momentum. Also don’t forget the bearish TK cross coupled with the close below the 50 period MA on the weekly chart. The 1 hour chart just had a bearish cross on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s. For me that is a good indication that the bearish momentum will start to pick up during my trip back home this afternoon. Until next time trade happily and remember that liking and following is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
LRC: Moving within triangle, bouncing off strong supportHello hello! Please take a moment to read the description on my profile. Ensenada, Mexico needs our help! Anywho, LRC appears to be possibly bouncing off a strong support here and moving within a very slightly descending channel. I see it as a fairly easy 8-10% trading within the triangle and below/at the 200 day EMA. This support line had strong bounces all the way back in January and February. Coincidentally, It happens to land on the .618 FIB of the most recent run up and retrace, and lands in the golden pocket (between .618 and .768 of the all time high and low.) Could see some very health gains if it breaks out above the descending blue resistance line. In addition, they will be airdropping $LRN token to all $LRC holders on July 5th.
Long
by infbp22
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 103)Yesterday I set a tight stop loss on my short position before hopping in the car to drive to Las Vegas for the WSOP. I found myself wondering where all of the bearish momentum had gone, and I was more than half expecting to get stopped out before arriving at my destination. Resistance held strong and now we are waiting to see what will happen at the $7,600 area. That is where a white line has been drawn to indicate previous resistance/support and it is also where the 50 period MA awaits. The bulls keep moving up support and establishing higher lows. Up to this point the rallies haven’t had any steam, but that will change in the blink of an eye if bulls keep successfully moving up support. Bears have drawn a line in the sand at $7,750 and have been holding strong over the last week. If they can continue holding that area of resistance over the next 24 hours then I expect a significant pullback over the weekend. If you are not in a position then the risk:reward on a short sale is very favorable. I am short ETH:USD with a stop loss set at $627. Cards are in the air for event #19 and it is time for me to take my seat! Wish me luck by smashing the like and following!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez