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Big Update on daily and 4hr chart (BTCUSD,BTCLONGS, BTCSHORTS)Hello everyone Today a big update on BTC price action. I will talk about the daily, 4hr, BTCUSDLONG, BTCUSDSHORT charts today. Could this be a potential trend reversal? Let’s get straight into this! BTCUSD (Daily) -So we can clearly see our downwards trendline, we are creating lower lows and lower highs, which is very bearish. -So I drew the most bearish scenario of BTC. That would be if we tested a new low and hold on that level. (Under 5.7K red lines) -I think that we need to test higher highs before we can speak about a possible trend reversal. We need to test levels above our previous high (above 8.4K) and hold these levels for confirmation. -Enough bad news: there is a small bullish divergence hidden on this chart which could indicate some good news! (For those who don’t know a bullish divergence is when we test new lows and when the RSI is going up at that timeframe (example chart)). -The stochastic RSI is still oversold and ready to go to higher levels, maybe price will follow. BTCUSD (4hr chart) -So we find support between the 6K and 6.5K level at the moment. When I’m writing this BTC is going down which isn’t bad news at all. If we find support at 6.1K and bounce off, we could possibly see a reversed head and shoulders pattern, which is very bullish -If we see a reversed head and shoulders pattern, we could pass a very strong resistance level at 6.8K and maybe go all the way up to 7K and pass that aswell if momentum is right. -The levels that I drew are the resistance levels I’m watching. BTCUSDLONGS -Let’s start with the good news, we’re creating higher lows since January which is extremely bullish. Nevertheless, it’s a bit flatten out at the moment but nothing to worry about. -We can see that we’re creating lower highs which is negative ofcourse. This pattern will be destroyed in September after the ETF decision. BTCUSDSHORTS -We can see a clear resistance line at 30K people going short on BTC (on Bitfinex). Every time we hit the 30K mark, we bounce downwards which is a good thing. So the same thing has happened again, curious to see what’s next. I expect to go down to 17K if BTC bounce of and goes back up above 7K. Love to hear your opinion on this! DM's and comments are always welcome. Leave a like if you appreciated it!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by cheynos
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 132)Disclaimer: I just returned from my good friends birthday party and am well above the legal limit. I have been drinking and my analysis should be taken with a grain of salt. Long story short - resistance at $6,725 has failed to push the price below $6,390 and we are primed for another $750 - $1,000 pump. Short story long, there is a lot of resistance built up but it isn’t enough at this level. We are too far oversold on the higher time frames to continue dropping further. There is a C-Clamp on the daily and 3 day chart that needs to be rectified and we are too far below the 50 & 200 period MA’s to sustain this drop. A pump to $7,500 is expecting but it is not something to bet on. We are deep in the trenches of a bear market and preparing for a short sale entry should be the priority. As outlined in the last few posts building at short at or above $7,500 is very attractive. To make up for the short post see my checklist below: Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,508 R: $6,620 BTCUSDSHORTS: turning s into r. Still inside triangle. Funding Rates: 0.01% EMA’s (12 & 26): 1d: posturing for bullish cross 4h: crossed at $6K , flattening out and could posture down soon MA crossovers: bearish Candlestick analysis: tweezer bottom on daily, and higher lows. Looks like it is cupping around bearish spinning top. Chart Patterns: head and shoulders could be forming Ichimoku Cloud: tenkan resistance on 4h. At cloud resistance on 12h. C clamps on daily and 3d. TD Sequential: 3d: Green 2 1d: Green 1 Visible Range: Mad resistance and unfilled gap at $5,000 50 & 200 MA’s: below 50 & 200 and both are posturing down BTC Price Spreadsheet: Bollinger Bands: 1d: consolidating above MA 3d: bouncing off bottom band 1w: bouncing off bottom band Trendline: waiting slightly under $5k Fractals: up: $6,800 down: $5,819 On Balance Volume: bear divs w lower high and lower low vs tweezer. Bouncing on weekly Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI < 50 Stoch overbought Yesterday’s analysis: TD 8, weekly dragonfly, bitfinex channel, visible range Thanks for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 130)Yesterday we narrowed in on major areas of resistance and outlined why I believe $7,770 - $8,150 will be a great area to build a short. Since then we have shown weakness as the price failed to rally through $6,800. Today we will be checking to see if it still looks like the rally can get to $7,700+ as well as going over the reasons why I am staying out of the market while waiting for further development. The Ichimoku Cloud on the 4 hour chart just had a kumo breakout , combined with a bullish TK cross and a bullish kumo twist . Please note: I have not found the 4 hour cloud to be reliable enough to trade by itself, if that was on the daily chart I would open a long. The 50 and 200 period MA ’s on the 4 hour chart are posturing for a golden cross . The price is finding resistance at the 200 MA while the 50 MA postures upward. This is similar to what Bollinger Bands illustrate. The price getting squeezed in between the two MA’s before crossing over is a very bullish indicator for the short term (1-2 weeks). The last time those crossed was on 4/18. Before the moving averages can cross on higher time frames they must first do so on lower time frames. Therefore we would expect the 1 hour, 2 hour and 3 hour charts to crossover before the 4 hour. As you can see below the shorter time frames have already fallen in line. The Bollinger Band on the 4 hour chart is starting to tighten and indicates that some volatility is on the horizon. The Ichimoku Cloud on the 1 day and the 3 day are indicating oversold conditions and suggest that a return to equilibrium is imminent. That is due to the C-Clamp that is evident on the 3 day and widening on the daily. With so many bullish indicators it can be difficult to remain on the sidelines. I seriously considered opening a small long position on the 4 hour golden cross and adding to it on the daily 12 & 26 EMA crossover that is expected. While I do believe that this rally has enough legs to get back to $7,770 - $8,150 there are two specific reasons that are making me hold off from opening a long. The first is the visible range volume profile which shows resistance stacked up from here to $8,500. There are two basic rules to trading which apply here: 1) Trade with the trend 2) Buy support ($5,000) and sell resistance ($6,700 - $8,500) We are in a bear trend and we are under a ton of resistance. Therefore I am going to stay away from a long. The second reason which led me to this decision is the TD Sequential which is currently on a green 6 out of 9. That indicates that the entry was missed and this rally could coming to an end. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 127)Yesterday we looked at the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart and I expected that to provide the support needed to break through the downtrend line that started on 5/5. We did end up breaking the trend line and now I expect a sustained rally for the next 1-2 weeks. We have a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s for the following time periods: 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, and 6h. The EMA’s are posturing for a crossover on the 12 hour chart and we are currently testing the 26 EMA on the daily chart for resistance. If we range in between the 12 & 26 EMA’s on the daily chart before getting a crossover then a strong rally would be expected to follow. The 50 period MA is starting to posture upwards on the 4 hour chart and indicates that a crossover with the 200 period MA is likely in the near future. We just got a tweezer top on the 4 hour chart combined with a bearish spinning top . That won’t be nearly as powerful as the tweezer on the weekly chart but it could be an indication that this current rally has come to an end. If we are unable to rally past $6,800 resistance over the next couple days and we create a lower low below $6,275 then I will likely be opening a short immediately. In the post from yesterday I was expecting a bounce to $7,275 and I still feel good about that projection. Nevertheless I am sitting on my hands and waiting for further development. I remain firmly bearish for the rest of 2018 and would need a perfected setup in order to take on a bullish entry in this market (such as buying LTC at $50). The Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart shows the next levels of resistance at $7,879 ( Kijun-Sen ) and $8,094 (Cloud retest). If we do rally back to those prices then I would be viewing it as a high probability short and opening a large position. Inexperienced traders will be running around like a chicken with it’s head cut off in this market. Do not let that happen to you. Have a plan, then patiently execute it with confidence. Have a backup plan and always be looking at the market from both sides. If you are feeling emotional then take a break and use smaller position sizing next time. If you want to open a long right now, then why didn’t you do it at $5,800 - $6,000? It's because you don't have enough confidence in your position and are following instead of preparing. If you want to open a short right now I would recommend waiting patiently because this bounce still has plenty of room to go. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 125)Yesterday we identified a bear flag (red triangle) and adjusted the stop losses based on Bill Williams Fractals from the daily chart. The flag failed to confirm with a breakdown below $5,776. Instead we got a double bottom that led to my stops being triggered on BTC:USD and ETH:USD. Yesterday was a great example of why I have been saying that shorting alts vs BTC is the safest bet. When BTC pumps in a bear market alts often FOMO back into it and/or have trouble keeping pace. I set a tight stop loss on my ETH:BTC short at 0.0731 which will ensure that position is profitable. That stop has not been triggered even with all of the volatility from yesterday. Trading is very stressful and I like to detach from the markets after getting stopped out. Today I played in a golf tournament and went out for Mexican food and margaritas afterwards. Keep that in mind when reading the analysis below! For me this weekend is about resetting and going back to the drawing board. I am 99% confident that $5,775 was not the bottom and will be preparing for the next bearish entry. Therefore I will be trying to figure out how much further this dead cat can bounce. Below is a rough draft of my next entry. I like to start by looking at all of the indicators that have proven to be useful in the past. Always beginning with higher time frames before zooming in. The visible range volume profile illustrates buying and selling volume for specific price points. This is a very useful tool for determining major areas of resistance and support. On the daily chart we are seeing large volume at $6,762. That is where there was significant support and we should expect that price to turn into significant resistance. When zooming into the 4 hour chart we get a more detailed view. It is showing three significant areas of volume at: $6,506, $6,731 and $7,544 The moving averages on the daily chart should also help to determine major areas of resistance. Below are the 50 (green) and 200 (orange) period MA’s. Notice that the 200 period MA is starting to posture downwards. That is a bearish indicator and is why I drew the area of resistance (red box) at $8,800. It should continue moving downwards as the price moves up. Below is the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart with 20, 60, 130, 30 settings. It will illustrate potential areas of resistance with the Tenkan-Sen , the Kinjun-Sen and the Cloud. As you can see the Tenken-Sen has been an area of strong resistance over the past two weeks. The next levels to watch out for are $7,750 where the Kijun-Sen is waiting and $8,000 where the bottom of the cloud hovers. Nothing outlined above is a trade recommendation, it is nothing more than going back to the drawing board. Over the next couple days I will be refining my outlook and expect to have more specific trade recommendations. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 123)Yesterday we took a look at the short sellers on Bitfinex in relation to the price of Bitcoin. I noted that the shorts had fallen drastically while the price of BTC remained flat. That told me that the only buyers at this level are short sellers who are covering or getting liquidated. I predicted the shorts to continue to fall to 22,765 before a sharp reversal. That is where I expected the shorts to pick back up and the price of Bitcoin to fall back down. The momentum appears to be reversing at 22,800. With how sharply the short sellers have fallen off in the past 48 hours I really would have expected to see the price of Bitcoin rise. Instead it has fallen itself. I am taking that as a very bearish indication. Once the short sellers are on the rise again it will almost certainly push the price down. I am expecting a breakdown of $5,900 support by 7/1. That is based on the cluster of resistance from the trendline (red), prior support turned into resistance (white) and the 12 period EMA on the daily chart (teal). The short term EMA's (12 & 26) have a bearish crossover on the following timeframes: 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, 12h, 1d, 3d, 1w. It is often best to wait for all of the time frames to paint the same picture before making an entry. That is currently the case with the moving average crossovers and I have found that to be one of my most reliable indicators. The price has been stuck in a range over the past week from $6,100 - $6,300. Once we get a move outside of that zone I am expecting a big move. If you are not currently in a position then opening a small short at the current price and added to it upon a breakdown of $6,100 should work out nicely. If you have the ability to short alts vs USD or BTC that should be the best bet. I am currently short BTC:USD, ETH:USD, and ETH:BTC. The stop loss and profits targets are as follows: BTC Stop: $6,876 Target: $4,950 ETH Stop: $556 Target: $360 Stop losses are based on the most recent Bill Williams Fractal from the daily chart. Profit targets are based on trendlines, prior support and FIB retracement levels. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 122)Yesterday I added to my short position after the hanging man candle on the 4 hour combined with the bearish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the hourly. I have been expecting the breakdown of $5,900 support since last Saturday and am viewing this current bounce as the final short squeeze before the sell off. The amount of shorts has fallen significantly over the past 5 days. I would expect to see a rise in price to reflect the short sellers covering their positions and/or getting liquidated, however that has not been the case. Bitcoin has remained stagnant while the shorts have been getting rekt. I am viewing this as a bearish divergence. I am expecting the shorts to continue to decrease down to 22,765 which is where I have drawn the white horizontal line to illustrate support. That could happen in the next few hours or days. From there I am expecting a sharp reversal in short sellers and another drawdown in Bitcoin. The previous 4 hour candle closed in the shape of a hammer or a hanging man. It is very hard for me to decipher this one. Hanging men come after a rally in the price and a hammer must follow a sell off. This candle followed a very small rally and that is why some would view it as a hanging man. Prior to the small bounce was a significant sell off and it could be argued that this is a hammer. Which one do you think it is? The 15 minute chart is painting a pretty clear picture of support turning into resistance. The bulls are fighting hard to keep the price above $5,900 however they seem to be losing the fight slowly but surely. The number of traders that are still bullish on Twitter and Reddit is the primary reason why I am certain that we are yet to find a bottom. The profit target for my short remains at $4,950. That is due to trendlines and previous support/resistance. One last thing to note is how well that lines up with the 0.382 FIB Retracement level which is showing up at $4,976. The stop loss remains $6,876 and that is due to the most recent Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart. If you are not in a position then you can start to build a short at the current levels and plan to max out your position upon a breakdown of $5,900. If you have the ability to short alts vs BTC or USD then that should be the safest bet. I am currently short BTC:USD | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC and I sold my spot positions in EOS and LTC. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez