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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 93)Over the past five days I have been calling for a rally to $7,950. At the same time keeping a close eye on the triangle that started forming on 2/6, which I am considering a no trade zone. Today I have changed my position and would recommend looking for an exit if you have an open long. Depending on your entry there should sill be plenty of time to exit at breakeven or even a small profit over the next couple days. Yesterday I mentioned that the Stochastic had not been this oversold since 8/18/2015. Now %K and %D have crossed over and are posturing back upwards. From here I am expecting a 2-14 day rally before heading back downward. Below I have outlined the reasons which have caused me to turn from fully bullish into a short term bear. I have also outlined the key areas of resistance that I will be watching out for. Finally I have provided the final confirmation that I will be looking for before entering a short position with my entire trading roll. Close below 50 Week Moving Average On Sunday we closed a weekly candle below the 50 period moving average for the first time since 2015. Last time we did that we proceeded to fall by 60% over the next year and it took almost two years to climb back it’s prior value. If we follow a similar path from here then it would put us at $3,000 per Bitcoin this time next year. Weekly TK Cross on Ichimoku Cloud There was a TK cross on the weekly for the first time since 5-26-2014. Shortly afterwards the price proceeded to fall by 73% over the next 7.5 months. That would put us at $2,000 per BTC in the middle of December. Bull div in the OBV shows move money going into Bitcoin over the past three months than coming out. Indicates that a rally should ensue. Did not see this divergence in 2014 and it is one of the only bullish indications that I am still seeing. Volume gap in the Visible range points to $4,200 Areas of Resistance 1. Entry: $7,675 on or around 5/31 (Horizontal & Trend) 2. $7,950 on or around 6/4 (Horizontal & Trend) 3. $8,050 on or around 6/4 (Horizontal & Trend) 4. $8,745 on or around 6/11 (Trend & Daily Fractal) 5. $10,055 (Weekly Fractal) Short Sell Entry A) If price falls below $7,025 in the next two weeks then it is highly likely we will fall by 15%+ and it is also likely we will breakdown through $6,000 support. B) Could also stagger orders to sell levels of resistance outlined above. Set 25% of your roll at each area of resistance and set stop loss above daily fractal at $8,800 or weekly fractal at $10,055 Personal I much prefer the risk:reward of option A. Anything can happen when Bitcoin is rallying and I think it is much more risky to go for the latter option. It does offer a greater rate of return, but is that worth the amount of times you get stopped out shorting against FOMO buyers? One last note about my general philosophy in regards to shorting Bitcoin. I am a hodler and will be until the day I die. I fund my margin account with Bitcoin. Therefor a short sale is a form of a hedge and is not nearly as risky as people can make it out to be - especially in a bear market! I will have my stop losses set and consider it to be a win/win situation. If Bitcoin continues to tank then I will be in a good position with a leveraged short. If Bitcoin rallys through my stop loss then I will be in a better position, based on how much of my personal net worth is invested into crypto. Smash the like and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 92)Over the past four days I have been calling for a bounce to $7,950. That is due to being oversold across the board. We haven’t been this far below the 12 & 26 day EMA’s on the daily chart in about 2 months. The alternative to a bounce is finding a range that would lead up back to equilibrium. We have been ranging on top of my longer term bull trend (green dotted) since the 24th. It looks like we could be breaking down through that area of support as we speak. I have re evaluated the charts, using longer time frames and still feel confident that we are in for a bounce. The Stochastic on the daily has not been this oversold since 8/18/2015 when the price was $209. We had recently broken out from the multiyear down trend and pulled back for a retest of that trend (chart below). 5 weeks later the price was up over 100%. On the other hand, the triangle that started forming on 2/6 has been 66% completed and a breakout is expected to occur any day. If the daily closes under $7,215 then I would consider the triangle broken down and it could get bloody sooner rather than later. I am still waiting on the sidelines until the triangle breaks. Until then happy trading and go bulls! Don't forget that following is always free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 91)Over the last couple days I have been calling for a $7,950 retest. That call is based on trendlines and moving averages. If I wasn’t in a no trade zone then I would have maxed out my position by now. Falling below $7,500 while I was asleep did make me second guess my prediction. However, after reevaluating I am still confident that we will bounce before falling below $7,250. I expect this last move down was a long squeeze and/or a bear trap meant to trigger stop losses and shakeout over leveraged longs. If we do not get back above $7,500 in the next 24 hours then it will be time to reevaluate again. Selling off from here would be extremely bearish. At a minimum I expect us to range along the bull trend line (green dotted) until we meet the three week downtrend line (red dotted). The weekly candle will close today and it is threatening to close under the 50 week moving average for the first time since 2013. If that happens then expect the downward momentum to increase rapidly over the next week. If bearish I would still be waiting to open a short until we retest the 12 and 26 day moving averages (daily chart) and/or trend line. If bullish then now is the time to open a position and congratulate yourself for being able to walk with such enormous balls. Until next time happy trading and go bulls! Remember to like, comment, and subscribe if you found this helpful !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 90)Over the last couple of days I have been calling for a retest of $7,950. If bearish that would be a good spot to open a short. If bullish, $7,350 - $7,500 is still providing a very attractive risk:reward on a long. I am remaining on the sidelines until the triangle that started on 2/6 breaks one way or the other. We are fast approaching the 66% benchmark, which is where the break is expected to occur. That should be happening in the next 1-3 days. In order to breakout to the upside we would need to be trading above $9,000 - which requires getting through a lot of resistance in a short amount of time. If longing from the $7,500 area then I would take full profits at $7,950 and wait for further development from there. The bears have a lot of momentum on their side and there will be horizontal and trend resistance waiting just under $8,000. That will also be the 3rd touch of the down trend that started on 5-6 (red dotted). The 3rd touch of a trendline is when traders are most confident. The daily Stochastic is screaming oversold and indicates that we should be in for a 3-5+ day rally. If that is the case then we could be right on schedule to break the triangle to the upside. In the meantime I will be relaxing with a massage this afternoon and enjoying my time away from the charts. Happy trading and go bulls! A like/comment/follow a day keeps the bears completely away!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 89)Over the past couple of days we have been dancing on the longer term bull trend line (green dotted). We got a bounce from $7,250 that was short lived. Resistance at $7,650 sent us back down for a retest of the bull trend line. I do not believe that we are in danger of breaking down through that area of support just yet. We are still in oversold conditions from the pullback on May 22nd and are highly likely to bounce for a retest of the downtrend that started on May 6th (red dotted). The daily chart has not been so far below the 12 & 26 EMA's since April 1st and that points toward a reversion to the mean over the next couple days. Nevertheless I am remaining on the sidelines until the triangle breaks that started forming Feb 6th. Longing here does provide a very favorable risk:reward, however I have gotten burned too much by being a bull as of late and am content to wait for further confirmation. Happy trading and go bulls! A like, comment and follow a day keeps the bears completely away!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 88)Yesterday I expected a bounce off of $7,950 support, but I stayed away from opening a long after getting burned these last few weeks. Today we are looking at the last line of support before it will be time to put on my bear suit and join the enemy. If you can beat em, join em! We are currently bouncing off of the trend line (green dotted) that I drew on May 15 in the Bitcoin 2018 Bull Trend Post . I will be watching very closely to see how much steam this bounce has behind it. At a minimum I expect it to take us back to $7,950. That is where the bears would be waiting to turn prior support into resistance. That would also be the third point of contact on the down trend that started on 5/6 (red dotted). The third touch is expected to be the most potent and that is where we will see confident selling out of the bears. If we can make it through the strong resistance at $8,000 - $8,200 then bulls will be able to breath a momentary sight of relief. Conversely that area would provide an attractive risk reward ratio for a short entry if you're into that kind of thing. I will also be closely watching for the completion of the triangle that started forming on 2/6 (pink). It will be 66% completed within the next 3-5 days and that it when a breakout is expected to occur. Breaking the green bull trend would also have us breaking down through the triangle. Talk about a crucial price point! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 87)Yesterday I was fully expecting a bounce off of the hammer doji and horizontal support at $8,200. My stop loss was set at $8,097 and that was triggered a few hours after my post. I have gotten rekt going long over the last couple weeks, and that has forced me to zoom out on the charts and re-evaluate. I have used a fresh chart to illustrate what I am looking at. Over the last two months we have been forming a triangle pattern. A breakout is expected to occur when the triangle is 66% completed. That has been highlighted in yellow and is set to occur on or around 5-28. According to Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948) Edwards and Magee suggests that roughly 75% of triangles marked a continuation pattern. A breakout to the upside would indicate a $15,183 price target and according to Thomas Bulkowski , 66% of bullish breakouts hit the price target. However, we are currently forming a downtrend that comes to a head on 5-27 at $7,117. That lines up within a day of the expected triangle breakout. Referring back to Thomas Bulkowski the average bearish breakout is expected to decline 17%. That would indicate a $5,907 price target. In the next 24 hours I will be watching for horizontal and trend resistance at $8,000. If we can breakthrough that that we could get right back on track for breaking out of the triangle to the upside. As long as we remain inside the triangle I am considering Bitcoin in a no trade zone. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 86)Yesterday I started to build a long position at $8,375. I entered ¼ of my position and waited for further confirmations. I was fully expecting a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 day EMA’s (6 hour chart) and unfortunately that has failed to materialize. We continued to pull back through both of the longer term bull trend lines (green dotted and orange solid) and now we are retesting the crucial area of $8,200. We just closed a textbook hammer doji and I expect to see a bounce from here. I will be watching closely to see how much steem this bounce has behind it. If we resist $8,400 - $8,500 then it will be time to get out of this position. We need to create a new local high above $8,600 otherwise I expect us to come crashing down through $8,000. If we can establish a new local high then we should form a diamond bottom that would provide a nice base of support. Until next time happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 85)Yesterday I warned against buying resistance at $8,500 - $8,600 and I also set up a potential entry at $8,736 where we would find horizontal and trend support. Furthermore, I advised to watch out for a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 days EMA’s (6 hour chart) as confirmation. We haven’t quite gotten the EMA cross, but it appears imminent at this point. I made my first entry at $8,376 for ¼ of my trading roll and plan to add on after further confirmations. I will be closely watching for moving average crossovers as well as a breakout from the daily Ichimoku Cloud. In order to enter another full on bull market we need to see a crossover on all timeframes and then high we need to see the longer term moving averages cross (50 & 200 specifically). We also need to be trading above a green cloud. We are not out of the woods until all of those boxes are checked. My plan is to add onto my position by 2/4 of my trading roll if and when the 12 & 26 day MA’s cross on the daily chart and then add the final ¼ when/if we break out of the cloud on the daily chart. Stop loss will be actively managed and is tentatively set slightly under $8,150. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 84)This morning I am happy to say that both of my questions from yesterday have been answered, and I am even happier to say that we got the bullish answers everyone was hoping for! $8,200 was attempting to turn into resistance and that has failed. We pumped up to $8,400 and then supported $8,200 before created another local high. In the past 48 hours we have established three higher lows as well as three higher highs. Furthermore we got a much needed bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 day MA’s. That happened at $8,250 and would have provided a very nice entry. However, we were still trading inside the 14 day downtrend at that point and I was keen on waiting for further confirmation. If you did go long from $8,200 - $8,300 then good for you! However, if you missed that entry then it is too late now and I would advise warming the bench with me. There will be resistance from $8,500 - $8,600 and buying into established resistance is never a good idea. The final confirmations that I will be watching for are: MA bullish crossovers on higher time frames (6 hours, 12 hours and 1 day) and the daily chart making it outside of the ichimoku cloud. A good strategy can be to divide up your trading roll and make partial entries after each confirmation. For example: if your trading roll is X then go long with X/4 after the 6 hour MA crossover then add onto the position by X/4 after each additional confirmation. Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 83)Yesterday I was on the sidelines waiting for two big questions to be answered. Now it looks like we won’t get the desired clarity until after another slow weekend. Those questions were and are: 1. Will $8,200 turn into resistance? 2. Can we break the 14 day down trend? We rallied right past $8,350 and for a moment it looked like we would be leaving both of those questions in the past. However, we quickly pulled back after taking a peak outside of the 14 day down trend and are currently testing $8,200 for support. If we cannot hold above that price over the next 48 hours then I expect $8,200 to ultimately turn into strong resistance. On the other hand, if we can hold then we will break through the down trend and be off for a $9,000 $9,200 retest. I will remain on the sidelines until gaining more clarity. Until next time, happy trading and go bulls! Comment if you have something to say. Smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 82) Yesterday I was watching from the sidelines as the price brokedown through $8,200 support and appeared to be confirming a second bear flag. From there I expected us to fall down to the green dotted bull trend line at $7,150 - $7,250. As it turned out we found some support at $8,000 - which has given us a bounce for an $8,200 retest. From here there are two big unanswered questions: 1. Will $8,200 turn into resistance? (white line) 2. Can we break through the 14 day downtrend (red dotted line) I need to see the price back above $8,200 and outside of the downtrend before I will feel comfortable opening a long. If we fail at either of those points then it will be back to my original plan of waiting for $7,150 - $7,250. Until then I will be sharpening my tools on the sidelines. Comment if you have something to say, smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 81)Yesterday I was licking my wounds as an injured bull and today I didn't looked at the charts until after 9:00 pm. Before taking a break I determined two support clusters that were most likely to provide a bounce. 1. $8,200 (horizontal and trend) 2. $7,150 - $7,250 (horizontal and green dotted trend) I am not too surprised to see the first option fall through. Now I am going to be holding my breath for the second option to come through in a big way. If we can hold support above the green dotted bull trend line then we should retest all time highs in 2018. On the other hand, if that breaks down then I will be back to a full bearish outlook for the short-medium term. Until then I will be waiting on the sidelines with my pom poms and skirt. Let's go bulls, let's go!!! *clap* *clap* *clap, clap, clap* Will work for likes and followers
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin 2018 Bull Trend - $34,000 price target?!?!My favorite chart pattern to trade are trend lines and/or pitchforks. I am always on the lookout for the next trend. Once one is established I use it as the primary indicator of overbought and oversold conditions. Knife catching the bottom of a trend provides the best risk:reward entries that I know how to find. Furthermore, I can confidently profit take once the price approaches the top end. Unfortunately there has not been a discernible long term trend since 4/12 when we broke out of the bear market. Today I charted a trend that I expect to hold up over the next 3+ months. Furthermore I have used fractals to project the price action and have provided two options for what August could look like. We are currently looking at a bear flag, which I expect to be rejected by support at either $8,500 or $7,800. That would confirm the $10,500 retest before the end of May. That is when everyone will be calling for the moon and it will be time to sell. If we pull back down to $8,300 from there then it could cause some panic to set back in for the skittish bulls. Tone Vays will be calling for $1,000 and the uncertainty will be abundant. That is when I will be putting on my working gloves and looking for a knife to catch. We would have a cluster of support (trend/horizontal) and it would provide the best risk:reward ratio that I have seen in months. From there I expect a strong rally to take us back up to the top of the trend by the end of July. That is when it would be time to take profit and watch from the sidelines. Obviously I am going to be rooting for the green line and would love to reenter on the breakout. That would have us retesting $20,000 by August 1st and would likely form a very nice cup & handle with a target of $34,000! The other option has us retesting $9,000 during the first week of August and that wouldn’t be nearly as much fun. Nevertheless, I will be prepared for both options and hopefully this will help you to be as well! Comment if you have something to say, smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 79)Yesterday I warned against buying into resistance at $8,800. As expected we pulled back off of the horizontal and trend lines. We are currently finding support at $8,475 and if that holds it would mark the third higher low, to match with three higher highs. I really like that the pullback has yet to fall through the developing trend support (green dotted). Furthermore there is still an unfilled gap from $8,800 - $9,000 and there is a high probability that we retest that range. I have opened a small position at $8,500. The stop loss is set at $8,249 and the target is $9,000 - $9,200. Keep an eye out for another post coming this afternoon which will take a look at the bigger picture. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
Impending death cross on 4 hour chart. Bear signals everywhere.As you can see each time we tested the top of the ascending broadening wedge(a pattern which usually breaks down) the price action was rejected, and once the wedge ran into the top wall of the descending channel the support of the t line could no longer prop it up causing the current breakdown from the only bullish thing we had going which was the bull flag. Now that the only bullish signal has broken down only bearish ones remain and as you can see on this 4 hr chart the 50ma(in orange) is about to cross under the 200ma (in blue) which creates a death cross which is very bearish and indicates the path of least resistance is to the downside. Hopefully, the 50ma on the 1 day chart will be enough support to once again bounce us back upward as it has done the last 2 times we tested it but even if not, as a firm believer that we are still just creating Eve's handle in this descending channel, I think the worst case scenario drop wise would be 7350 but we will more likely bounce back at 7500 or even 8000 before dipping that low. A smart move here would be to set a buy in a pip above the 1 day 50 ma with a stop loss a couple pips below it should it not hold support this time. From there maybe do the same thing with 8000 and if it breaks under that try it again at 7700 and once more at 7500. I would simply buy the dip if it somehow drops under 7500 but in the unlikely scenario that it goes under 7350 I would exit completely because if it does that it will likely be crashing much further...a scenario I find highly unlikely. Best of luck with whatever strategy you choose for yourself, this is simply my strategy and not meant to be taken as financial advice. Thanks for reading and good luck.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 78)Yesterday I was concerned about upcoming resistance at $8,600 - $8,800 and I was keeping a very tight stop loss on my long. I got out at $8,569 right as the price was falling through support. There was decent volume behind the selloff and when I went to bed I was expecting to wake up to sub $8,000 Bitcoin. To my surprise we found support for a second time at $8,200 and reversed even more sharply that we fell. That was one hell of a long squeeze and unfortunately I got caught in it. However, the risk was managed properly and I barely lost anything on the deal. I am happy to lose small so that I can win big. As it stands right now I am viewing $8,800 - $9,200 as a no trade zone. If not in a position I would advise against going long right now. $8,800 is strong resistance and there will be a much better entry in the coming days. Happy trading and remember that following is free!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (Day 77)Yesterday I was holding onto my long from ~$8,615 and was very confident that we would either get a bounce off $8,200 or find a range. I felt good about that due to how far away we had fallen from the 12 & 26 day moving averages. That was confirmed with a few candles closing outside of the Bollinger Bands. Now that we have cooled off a little bit I am keeping a very close eye on how we develop from here. I expect there to be significant resistance waiting at $8,600 - because there was a decent amount of volume at the price before we broke down further. That price will also see us testing the 12 day MA as well as the simple moving average in the middle of the Bollinger Band. It will be time for me to exit this trade if we face too much resistance. Stop loss is currently set under $8,300 but it will be actively managed. On the other hand if we breakthrough then it could be a quick rally up to $8,850. This is where the profit target has been adjusted to. That is due to prior horizontal resistance (white line) as well as the third point of a down trend (red dotted line). Not the best risk:reward on this trade, but sometimes things change and you have to play the hand that is dealt. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 75)This morning we broke out of my no trade zone. Unfortunately it was to the downside! Breaking through $9,000 support has changed me from bullish to neutral. Nevertheless I strongly expect a bounce in the next 12- 24 hours. We fell $400 (4.44%) in four hours and $700 (7.5%) in the last sixteen hours. Furthermore we have not see the price this far below the 12 & 26 day EMA’s since the $5900 bottom on 2-6. Being that far out of equilibrium could provide a good opportunity to take a scalp. I am long from $8,600 with a target of $8,950. If I was bullish then I would be looking for a higher target. Since my overall position is neutral I will be exiting at the first level of resistance. Happy trading and let’s go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 74)Yesterday I set a no trade zone from $8,800 - $9,500 and today I am happy to see us grinding towards the upper end of that range. I have been keeping a close eye on the moving averages to try and get an idea of where we are heading next. We have been getting resistance from the 50 day SMA (red) over the past twenty four hours. If we can break above that then $9,500 is very likely to follow. I expect a cross on the 12 (blue) and 26 day (orange) SMA’s within the next 24 hours. That is a strong buy signal for day traders and I am hoping it will give us the momentum needed to break through the areas of resistance mentioned above. Until then I will be focusing on alts. Happy trading and go bulls!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2