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LATEST UPDATE - Bitcoin in it's darkest hourHello all, so just some polishing up of the graph. I've slightly adjusted the 6m trend line and that fits better with the bounce off the 6400(ish) level. It's possible we have started wave 4 (see the path to point 4b, dark purple line). Could stop at 7200, but 7800 also is possible, if we allow Elliot wave principle to be broken. Who knows with potential market manipulation, I mean a good rally now would liquidate a bunch of short margin orders ... and that would make someone money (wall street, whale, etc). On the other hand, this could very well be a bull trap, and we are still in wave 3. This does fit in better with Elliot wave theory, and that could possibly take us to 6k (or slightly less) for a double bottom bounce, before we start wave 4 (see pink lines to points 3a and 4a). This brings into picture a potential bottom at 4k, but there is support before we get there, so a bounce off any of those lines is possible. So which way will it go? I'd look for at least a retracement to 6.5k before we can call off wave 4b ... and even then it's tricky. How about validation on the way up? Well, we can bounce off 7.2k down, and we aren't that far off. A break above 7.2k is likely validation for the path to 4b. In between ... range bound, which equals risky trade. As usual, only a fool relies on one possible outcome. Do not use this information for investment decisions. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
Bitcoin back to 4.5k? Downtrend Fractal theoryHello everyone, I hope you're all doing fine and having a wonderful Easter. Sadly my last prediction didn't work out further as we broke the major support line and plummeted into the abyss. We had followed that fractal for quite some time, but it did no longer when the major support broke. Ok, downtrend. But what now? But what could be bitcoins next move? I have a new theory: I noticed some traders comparing the 2014 downtrend to our downtrend now. And as many of fractals repeat I think that's actually not a bad idea. One thing that I noticed during research of fractals is that many shapes repeat, but they distort over time, because a market starts to move faster or slower. In mutiple market cycles I found similiar shapes, just distorted/deformed. I believe that right now we move MUCH faster than back in 2014. If we roughly follow the 2014 fractal linked with our market speed now. The bottom should be around 2.9k in Spring/Summer followed up by an accumulation phase that lasts from mid may to mid august. Where the average of the price lies around 4.5k. The bull market could start from September. Personnaly I don't think we are heading into a long crypto winter and here is why: - There is a super large channel active that's here since the top of 2014. And as price moves between channels: We bumped the top of the super channel in December and are now heading to the bottom of the channel. I'd like you to take a look at how the fractal bottom matches with the lower part of the super channel. - I noticed that the 2014 fractal fits onto our downtrend. But I had to speed it up. Weirdly it looks like we are correcting MUCH faster than back in 2014. I hope you liked this analysis. Happy Trading. Greetings, Vincent
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CivilisedWolf
4
BTC - in its darkest hour, UPDATED!After a good discussion on the Chart-Attack group (Telegram), thanks to one member Urban V, I'm more convinced of the above possibilities. What we have in this chart is Grand Wave (impulse) shown in red. In pink is the mini-wave which is forming wave 5 of the grand wave. The pink is scenario A, and you will see a possibility off that in a dark purple, which is scenario B. Scenario A shows that we have not completed mini-wave 3. We would likely go to the 6k to do a double bottom test, before bouncing (mini-wave 4 to point 4a), likely to the end of mini-wave 1, $7200. It's possible if we do not strictly conform to elliot wave principles that we go into wave 1 territory and test the all-time high trend line 2. From here (higher probability from $7200), we enter mini-wave 5 and can move anywhere in that lower box (ignore date position). It is possible to drop as much as $3200, which would be equal to the size of wave 3 to point 3a. That could bring us to $4k, and there is a support line just below this level, $3,900ish. Scenario B shows that at $6.6k btc we completed mini-wave 3 (at point 3b), and are now in wave 4b. This could also not conform strictly to elliot wave principles and test the all-time-high trend line at around $8.2k BTC. This would drop us down into the upper box range (ignore date position), and give us a double bottom bounce at 6k. $5.4k is a support level, but reaching this level would be make wave 5b slightly longer than 3b. Too many rules broken, so far less likely in my opinion. As, only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not rely on this information for investment decisions, this is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
BTC ... in it's darkest hour.Well, since publishing my last idea, we have confirmation ... we are not in a triangle wave. This has simplified things, and it is likely we are in wave 5 ... the final, darkest hour for BTC. Of course everyone is asking, where is the bottom. I've read 6k, 4k, 3k, and even 1k in the blogs. Could any of these be discarded? NO! Why? Because it is BTC, and there are too many variables for any one human being to be able to draw a definitive line. However, let's not give up on TA just yet! Look above, I've spent some time on this chart. The grand wave is shown in red, and the question is where will point (5) stop. The purple wave is our current mini-wave, defining grand wave 5. Grand wave point (5) is dependent on the current mini-wave 4 recovery. To help, and because I've seen predictions as low as $1000 BTC, as well as taking all data into consideration for the past year, I've drawn Fibs from the low of $888 BTC, established on March 25, 2017 and the All-Time-High close to $20,000. I've also established some potential support lines, back to that time frame, within the probable range of the wave 5 bottom. Technically, mini-wave (purple) 4 should not go into mini-wave (purple) 1 territory, but it's not impossible. In fact if you look at grand wave (red) 4, it does go into grand wave (red) 1 territory. So two potential points defining the range for the mini-wave 4 end point. Option (4a) is stopping at the bottom of mini-wave 1. Option (4b) stops at the All-Time-High Trend Line 2. By the way, (4b) also happens to be around the 0.618 Fib retracement, and I'd say that is interesting. I'm doubtful wave 4 could go any higher. So really, mini-wave 4's likely range is $7200 to $8200. Then down. The second thing we need to note is that mini-wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Mini-wave 1 is already very long, so mini-wave 5 needs to be the shortest. This is a pretty hard-core rule for Elliot Wave. Mini-wave 3 was a drop of approximately 2600 points. So, if we take 2600 points as the max for the mini-wave 5 drop, and we hypothesize that mini-wave 4 will stop between $7200 and $8200, we can define the likely target range for the mini-wave 5 and grand-wave 5 end point (they will coincide). The boxes I've drawn are essentially the target range for wave 5, with the top being defined as the bottom of mini-wave 3 as a minimum retracement, and the bottom of the top box being mini-wave 4b top less $2600, and the lower box being mini-wave 4a top less $2600. If this sounds confusing, slow down, read this carefully, until it makes sense. Within those defined boxes, I've drawn support lines that are likely meaningful, and selected the lines that fall within those boxes. If mini-wave 4 goes to point (4b, approx $8200), then we will likely have a $6k double bottom bounce (perhaps with a small extension below $6k). If mini-wave 4 stops at point (4a, approx $7200) then we will likely go to the $4.9k level. After that, if Elliot Theory applies, we should start a GRAND RECOVERY!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
4
Crack the BTC code!Patterns, we look for them all the time, to give us a hint at the future! Friends, I know this chart is busy, and I was in two minds about publishing it, but read it closely and you will get what I'm saying. There's a school of thought that we are currently in Grand Wave 5 (see red impulse wave), and this is the basis of my first idea published "Fork in the Road". Another possible interpretation is an impulse wave, followed by an ABC correction, and now either a triangle wave (as published in my idea "180 degrees in a Triangle) or another impulse down. No matter which way you look at it, the current wave is either a triangle wave or an impulse wave (yes an ABC correction is possible too, but I'd say unlikely if we test 6k again). We've already broken the lower trend line of the triangle wave, which I had at 7540 ... but with market dynamics, I'll forgive being off by 100 points ... so I'm not ready to write it off. However, no doubt if we hit the previous low of 7240 on Bitfinex, or lower, it validates Grand Wave 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 6k again in weeks to come. Obviously there's no guarantees, and only a fool would bet on a single option. As usual, do not use this for investment decisions, just for educational purposes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
Broader picture... why BTC could head below $6000 ?BITFINEX:BTCUSD Ever since the G20 summit is over, every crypto guy on youtube and every other platform is bragging about the crypto to the moon, BTC to the moon. But looking at the broader picture depicts something else. I want to pull your attention at the bigger time frame. Please don't get me, wrong guys. I'm not spreading the FUD. Just like all of you, I am also a great crypto lover and an all-time BTC believer. So, without wasting time let's get to the point. First of all, what I want you to do is set the time frame for weekly and add the RSI and MACD indicators to the chart. Now, check the MACD levels from October 2016. You will notice that the green line hasn't crossed the yellow line from then (2016-10-24) to the January of 2018 (see the time bar mentioned on MACD graph). Bitcoin has been in the uptrend for almost more than a year and that's why we may see a further more major correction in the price of BTC. Now, bring your cursor on the RSI graph at 53.692 level. You will find support at 2017-07-10, 2017-03-20 and also for the whole month of August 2016. At present, the RSI has constantly fallen from the beginning of this year (weekly timeframe). From the past three months, BTC is following the downtrend channel shown in the chart and is likely to continue to follow it unless we see some reversal in the MACD graph. See the red line below the yellow, that we need to turn in green which would be a super confirmed bullish sign of Bitcoin for a long-term again. These two lines on the MACD graph may take about two to three weeks or maximum four weeks to intersect. By this time we may see the BTC price fallen down to $6000 (approx or maybe even lower). And now starts the super bull run of BTC which we have been talking for a while "to the moon". Now, a reason to this is, look at the volume. The trading volume is continuously increasing from 2017 and even though now, given the downtrend of BTC, the volume is still increasing. There is no decline in the trading volume since the number of crypto community members are increasing every single day. And that's the main reason Bitcoin can never go to zero. Cause whenever the price goes down, there's more and more buying which ultimately raises the price back on track. For now, I think, BTC is going to touch $6000 or maybe even low (according to the MACD graph) and then we are gonna go to $30k or even more for sure. Cause, the number of people joining the Bitcoin community is going to increase and ultimately increasing the price. The daily traders who like to ride the waves are already enjoying the rides. And to those who are new and looking for an entry point, I suggest them to wait for one or two weeks, you may get a much better entry at a lower price. And even if you enter at this moment, no worries. Cause though the price goes down, its gonna rise high even stronger. That's it for now. Thank you for checking out. If you liked my content, please share, like and comment. Eager to know your views, so feel free to comment. Hope for the best. May the odds be ever in your favor (while trading too). This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by AbyZee
2
BTC - Patience is key!Just an update guys, on the Fork in the Road. I've cleaned up the chart a bit, and added labels to help everyone read this easier. I was confident BTC 3.50%would try and test the bottom of the one year trend line (log), and gave up on that yesterday ... should not have. Patience is key! Also I've adjusted the slopes of wave 4 and 5 to be a bit shallower than 2 and 3, respectively. Timing is almost impossible to determine, unless you are a big market player and have the keys to the car. This means Scenario 1 is not off the table just yet. Given the recent spike, wave 5 can settle at 7200, but I do see some traders stating 6800 is possible. Chances of going to 6800 on wave 5 are definitely tanking after this latest spike to test the underside of the 1Y trend. In fact Scenario 2 is definitely increasing in probability, with a double bottom , to cause BTC 3.50%to test the all time high trend, and then start a new impulse wave down to the abyss. I still say a 6k retest, and return to bull market. I know many expect 4k or 5k ... cannot be discarded, for sure. Only a fool would bet on one possible scenario, especially with BTC 3.50%. Until next time, over and out! As always, I am not an expert, do not rely on my advice. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
BTC - Patience is key!Just an update guys, on the Fork in the Road. I've cleaned up the chart a bit, and added labels to help everyone read this easier. I was confident BTC 3.50%would try and test the bottom of the one year trend line (log), and gave up on that yesterday ... should not have. Patience is key! Also I've adjusted the slopes of wave 4 and 5 to be a bit shallower than 2 and 3, respectively. Timing is almost impossible to determine, unless you are a big market player and have the keys to the car. This means Scenario 1 is not off the table just yet. Given the recent spike, wave 5 can settle at 7200, but I do see some traders stating 6800 is possible. Chances of going to 6800 on wave 5 are definitely tanking after this latest spike to test the underside of the 1Y trend. In fact Scenario 2 is definitely increasing in probability, with a double bottom , to cause BTC 3.50%to test the all time high trend, and then start a new impulse wave down to the abyss. I still say a 6k retest, and return to bull market. I know many expect 4k or 5k ... cannot be discarded, for sure. Only a fool would bet on one possible scenario, especially with BTC 3.50%. Until next time, over and out! As always, I am not an expert, do not rely on my advice. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
1