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4yearcycle

180K Bitcoin Top?Exciting times for Bitcoin and crypto in general. 2020-2021 Bitcoin bull run has been insanely similar to 2012-2013's bull run. Especially when it comes to price action. In both cycles April has been the mid-cycle top followed by a 3 month re-accumulation period. Q4 is also off to a great start. The RSI has been a very useful indicator, in 2013 the local top and end of cycle top both touch the blue trend line before falling. Although the local top this year wasnt defined when the RSI hit its peak, id say its still something to pay close attention to if youre trying to sell at the "Top". If you check the monthly, youll notice the second touch of the RSI top trend line marks the end of the bull market every time so far in Bitcoins existence. Of course just because something has happened in the past doesnt mean it will happen in the future, I'd say it has shown any signs of how this cycle could be different. Institutional demand along with country demand is a huge difference but human nature tends to stay the same more or less. Just because bigger entities are buying into Bitcoin doesnt save Bitcoin from going through psychological market cycles like it has in the previous 2 cycles. It will just be a different scale. There are super cycle theories, however, which I dont find impossible either. No one knows the future but to give us the best odds in deciphering which of the 2 might happen, pay EXTREMELY close attention to the sentiment. Check the fear and greed index regularly, along with the RSI. If we have a steady climb with healthy sell offs in-between throughout these next few months then it increases the odds of a super cycle. But if you see us making ATH after ATH daily, with little to no corrections then that would increase the odds of the 4 year cycle theory. I personally will probably sell most if not all my crypto bags when the monthly or weekly RSI trend line is hit, especially if the 4.236 fib level is reached. Using the local top of 2013 as the initial point, the 4.236 level marked the top of the cycle. It wicked a little higher but that level seems very important to watch for this cycle as well. This level was about $950 give or take depending how you draw your retracement, and the weekly close at the top was $948! It also touched the RSI on the same week it topped. Ill be expecting something similar to this year(Or beginning of next!) Using the fib retracement from the mid cycle top of this year, the 4.236 level is marked at 183k give or take. So i would be on the look out for a 180K top with a possible wick up to the 200K level. I hope this helps out everyone who reads this, good luck everyone!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by anamaly
BTC Final Intermediate Fifth Wave In PlayA shallow pull back to the 0.38 level. Wave 2 of the final intermediate fifth? An impulsive recovery will further validate the count. Disclaimer This is not trading advice. All content/ information shared in this idea is purely educational in nature and is expected to be used for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Do not trade or speculate based on the information provided in this idea. Trust your own analysis. BeyondEdge
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BeyondEdge
1
Bitcoin Macro Wave Count - Wave 4 Has BegunAccording to "Elliott Wave Principles" the 4th wave of a Primary impulse tends to enter the range of the 4th subwave of wave 3. That would mean we go to at least 42000. Historically, BTC has had 4th wave consolidations from May --> July in 2013, 2017, and now 2021? 4 year cycles, 4 years apart, same PA... spooky. In conjunction with this, there has been an altseason (due to BTC ranging) every 3 months since May 2020. May 2021 would fall into this cycle. ---------------- If we take a look at LTC/BTC, which both obey 4 year cycles at the moment, the previous two cycles have yielded similar patterns. (look at this to understand the following paragraph) From July --> October (purple to green regions) in 2013 and 2017, BTC broke out of consolidation and went parabolic against LTC (the sharp decline) until hitting the green region. Then LTC pumps as well, but BTC kept pumping until November/December of 2013 and 2017 at which point a blowoff top occurred, and BTC entered a bear market both times. If history repeats itself, then BTC should range from March --> late June / early July (light blue to purple region), as it did in 2013 and 2017. 4 years later in 2021, we bottomed in March on LTC/BTC (light blue region). ----------------- So we have a macro wave count, cyclical altseasons, and LTC/BTC 4 year cycles all pointing to a ranging/4th wave correction from March --> July 2021.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Riester
6
LTC & BTC Cyclical NatureJust as sine and cosine exhibit identical periods of rotation, but remain offset to a certain degree, LTC and BTC exist in a similar manner. If BTC = digital gold, then LTC = digital silver. LTC was born from BTC's source code, albeit slightly modified. Some notable changes are faster block times and a lighter mining algorithm. The consequences of these changes are not important for this post. What matters are the similarities. LTC has a fixed maximum supply, just as BTC. LTC also has a halving every 4 years. The result of these constants are LTC & BTC oscillating through their respective 4 year cycles in a slightly offset manner. In the chart notice that the LTC halving (black) and the BTC halving (orange) are offset, but still 4 years apart. Notice how the respective peaks of LTC and BTC occur in the same fashion 4 years apart. A picture is worth a thousand words, so analyze the chart instead of reading my explanation. Words simply do not do It justice. Yes, in the chart the sample size of market cycles = 2. The past is not a predictor of the future. Nonetheless, this is interesting and IF it holds true that fundamentally changes the way crypto differentiates itself from legacy stocks. There is unimpeded cyclicality, instead of massive boom periods followed by sharp recessions. Order, mediocristan, antifragility, has been restored.
by Riester
BITCOIN: The door is closing.I asked myself a while back; how will the Bitcoin-halving effect price? I am taking the position that Bitcoin will increase buying pressure , regardless of all factors considered, most retail traders and even long term investors will see this as just incentive to invest more, and this same narrative will likely be pushed by the media as it has in the past. With that said, it is this fundamental that is being factored into today's projection/scenarois: 0: (Expectation) 8k resistance level very likely to be touched 1: MM will use this as an opportunity to push price lower 1.1: If price is pushed lower, the neck-line at 7.25k will hold up as resistance levels usually serve as even stronger supports often 1.2: If price is pushed lower, and the neckline at 7.25k doesn't hold up, then the break of a such a significant support level will push price down with more momentum. This will be ideal for Market Makers as they want to push price lower before the Bitcoin-halving comes up to create more liquidity and ride the buying pressure from FOMOing retail traders and investors. 2: If resistance at 8k does not hold up, the ultimate storm of FOMO will be created as the bearish sentiment the market will be injured. That + the up coming halving will ultimately form a new bullish sentiment throughout the market. 2.1: ^ False-breakout, 2 month-long rising wedge plays out, wick down to 2k. I did not include into the chart. Conclusion: Assuming the halving in May increases buying pressure, Market Makers are running out of time to manipulate the market and create liquidity before the halving. The door won't be open for much longer and market makers must soon decide what to do before hand. Thanks for reading! I use technical analysis for these scenarios but I strongly believe in also including and justifying market behavior using fundamentals. If you like my analysis and hope to see more very well backed break-downs, follow me here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mike_McCarthy
2
Altcoin 4 year cycle - What to expectIf the markets do run in 4 year cycles then this is what we can expect. Chart explained: * From the end of may 2014 until November 2015 we have seen a ABC correction (bearmarket), for the current bearmarket this ABC correction started in January 2018 until the end of September. In my opinion the bottom of the total market cap ex. BTC is already in. ( Bottoms are marked with the green dotted line ) * If we can trust the chart, we will see a beautiful increase in marketcap the coming 7 months when the next Bitcoin halving ( yellow dotted line ) will be a fact, here we will see the first part of the Elliot wave completed ( if history repeats itself ) * Buy the news sell the rumor, expect a temporary pullback / consolidation phase when the halving passes, with this pullback we will complete the second part of the Elliot wave. * Bags will be filled and the market will once more see a run up, with this run we will complete the third part of the Elliot wave. * As expected, after every run a correction need to happen, this correction will be short lived. This will be the fourth part of the Elliot wave. * Prices will shoot up rather quickly and FOMO kicks in, lets enjoy the ride on wave 5 RSI explained: I have used a 12345 structure to point out the historical RSI VS the current RSI setup, does it looks similar to you ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is no advice and I know there are a lot of similar posts, this chart is a possible setup based on long term trend and historical data combined with dates and some technical indicators. Enjoy
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by Dmoootje
4
Bear Market Fib retracement. 2019 an 2015 parallelsLooks like this history is repeating itself. First retracement came at the .618 level. Looking for the next steady rise until the 1 level. Followed by a retracement, bounce, breakout through previous ATH, and from there the sky is the limit. (but more like 100k - 300k) If this is true, we are in the very early stages of a bull market, and now is a great time to buy in. Altseason to start once we hit 20,000 and BTC is divested into speculative alts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by davidm163
2