VET/USDVET/USD very quick update.
Here is a closer look at this VET/USD 1 day chart:
VeChain is in a new smaller Descending Channel which is in a massive Descending Channel. VeChain is also in a massive Symmetrical Triangle.
At the moment of typing this, VeChain is still in the Bullish Zone above its Ichimoku Cloud.
At the moment of typing this, VeChain is still above its 200MA. Note that the 50MA is still traveling upwards so we may eventually see the 50MA cross above the 200MA on this 1 day chart.
Not that overall traded volume is still very low compared to what we were getting from 2018 to 2021.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is dropping with the ADX (Orange Line) at 36.08 and under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 39.52. Positive Momentum has dropped with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 19.73. Negative momentum has also dropped a little with the -DI (Red Line) slightly dropping to 15.87 on this 1 day chart.
I hope this very quick update is helpful.
50ma
GBPUSD I Short and long opportunity outlookWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Monthly 50MA pressure. For the first time in trading history, Bitcoin will close under 50MA on 1-month chart.
This is besides death cross on the 1 week chart.
Again and again, I urge those who are in love with 1-4 hour charts to watch the larger timeframes.
Unique events are happening and we can see that they are having an impact.
Who's to say how long the bear market will take now with an event like this?
We can only hope that 2024 brings some improvement.
And I really regret that Circle kept some of the currency collateral in that bank .
NZDCHF I Local short from resistance zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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USDJPY I Intraday buy from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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BTC/USD - Interesting times ahead with an Ascending ChannelBTC/USD 1 day chart quick update.
Here is a closer look at this 1 day chart.
BTC is in an Ascending Channel Pattern.
BTC is still in a Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is still in a Descending Channel.
BTC is still in a massive Ichimoku Y Wave Pattern.
At the moment of typing this, BTC is fighting to stay back above its 200MA. If BTC CLOSES this or tomorrows daily candle ABOVE the 200MA and stays above it, and we see a successful re-test of the 200MA as strong support, then we could see BTC attempt to break out of its Falling Wedge Pattern upper trend-line.
Note that BTC has not closed above its 200MA since Monday 27th December 2021.
Note that BTC is also back in the Bullish Zone of its Ichimoku Cloud.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands, we can see the Bollinger Bands Upper and Lower Bands are expanding away from each other indicating increased volatility for the upside because the Middle Band is also pointing upwards. The Price is also walking up the outside of its Upper Band.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is in the Overbought Zone on this 1 day timeframe. The RSI is still above its 9 Period EMA. With the RSI in the Overbought Zone doesn’t mean it will drop as the RSI line can range sideways for a prolonged period of time.
Interesting times ahead if BTC manages to CLOSE this daily candle ABOVE its 200MA and then its Falling Wedge Pattern’s upper trend-line. A successful re-test of these 2 levels as strong support will be further confirmation that the bottom is in and a new uptrend has started. Note that after such a huge rise, maybe not yet, but we should expect at some point a correction downwards on this1 day timeframe. Who knows, if this continues, we may eventually see a Golden Cross on this 1 day timeframe when the 50MA crosses back above the 200MA.
I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
Correction on chart as i had the wrong trend-line signed above for the Ichimoku Y Wave lower trend-line. Below is the correction. Apologies.
Link breaking above last potential top trendline of triangleIt’s still unclear whether or not link’s macro pattern is more valid as a falling wedge or a symmetrical triangle, however it seems now that we are finally closing daily candles above the last potential top trendline for that pattern. That trendline is most valid on the weekly chart so we still need to close the current weekly candle above the white trendline..after that we should see the follow up weekly candle confirm the white trendline as support on a retest ….if the follow up weekly candle closes above the white trendline odds are very good at that point the breakout will be validated…it may wait until the 3rd weekly candle to start the bullish impulse…or it could come as early as the current weekly candle…will have to see how the next few weekly candles play out. I chose to show this chart on the daily time frame instead of the weekly to illustrate how price action is also now back above both the 1 day 50 and 200 moving averages. If it can hold the daily 200ma as support during the next few weekly closes then the breakout will be confirmed. *not financial advice*
EURCAD I Position swing short from monthlyWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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AUDCHF I It will rise from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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XRP | Unlocking the Secret Bonus LevelWelcome XRP friends! Wondering where we're going? Here are some things to consider :
As we come out of our US Thanksgiving Day food comas, we're looking at some decent gains on the most recent run BUT, you're asking if this is it? Honestly, I think it still has legs for the 0.45 area where we find resistance at the 200 EMA
Look at the fork and see if it makes sense to go there, I think the Fibonacci's all suggest it's possible.
Remember, XRP ALWAYS pumps before mad dumps and there's still a ton of overhead selling pressure if you look at the VPFR, Look at all the volume that went into the 0.50+ range before the most recent selloff.
Check out recent statements by Ripple CTO regarding ETH looking more and more centralized as a result of much of the network relying on AWS servers. What a comedy show and Vitalik looks more tarded with each passing day.
Bitty is also having plenty of negative light being cast, I can't see us NOT having more down.
Anyway, see you at the bottom . . eventually
BTC/USD - is BTC still in a downtrend?Let’s have a look at the BTC/USD 1 week chart and see what this chart and indicators are telling us.
BTC is still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is also still in a massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern.
Note that the 50MA is still traveling DOWNWARDS towards the 200MA so we still might see a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe.
At the moment of typing this, BTC has crossed back under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 week timeframe. A successful close below the LSMA and successful re-test as resistance will indicate that the direction of travel will most likely continue downwards.
BTC is still way under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the Descending Pitchfork Pattern, we can see the Support and Resistance levels that BTC has been hitting on this indicator.
Here is a closer look at this 1 week chart:
BTC is still in the Bearish Zone of all 3 of its major Ichimoku Clouds.
Looking at BTC’s most important Ichimoku Cloud:
The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that mid-point the short-term momentum is downwards at the moment.
The Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the mid-point of the mid-term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that momentum, at the moment is starting to slope downwards.
Using the Negative V Calculation from the 1 Month Chart, and using the Ichimoku Timespan Numbers of 65-Bars and 76-Bars starting from the ATH at $68,789.63 back in Nov 2021, we have 2 potential timeframes for the price target $9,916.
V Calculation Negative (from 1 month chart)
V = B - (C-B) = D
C $25,160 - B $17,538 = $7,622
B $17,538 - (C-B) $7,1622 = $9,916
D1 = $9,916 The week of 6th Feb 2023
D2 = $9,916 The week 24th April 2023
Note that this is NOT a bottom for BTC but is a PRICE TARGET using the Ichimoku V Calculation (Negative).
Looking at the Up/Down Volume, we can see that the Volume Traded since around June 2021 has been nothing when compared to what has been previously traded in the past.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is pointing downwards and still has plenty of room to move downwards before becoming Oversold on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the RSI is getting very close to crossing under is 9 Period EMA.
From my opinion, before anyone can start talking or preaching about bottoms, reversals and bull-runs, we need to talk about fundamentals and what is happening to the world economy. We also now know that the Crypto world isn’t yet a hedge against inflation and we also need to accept the fact that the world is already in a recession and possibly heading into a depression in 2023.
From my opinion BTC is still in a mid to longterm downtrend. That is NOT going to change unless BTC crosses back ABOVE and more importantly CLOSES ABOVE its 200MA on the 1 Day Chart for Mid-Term and 1 Week Chart for Long-Term. If/when this happens, be on the lookout for any successful re-test as support on these timeframes.
Once this world wide recession fully bottoms out be it in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and when the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then true opportunities WILL ARISE for those who are ready.
Again this is all my opinion so I hope this post is helpful.
Santa Does Not Come to Bear MarketsA fierce face-ripping rally characteristic of bear markets caught shorts out on Winter Solstice, but should not be mistaken for anything than another bear rally.
We have had a number of these all year long. This is no different. The .382 fibo aligns with 50 MA at the higher structure neckline, an ominous triple coincidence. IMO this move is consistent with an Elliot Fourth Wave, with a Fifth Wave final plunge yet to follow.
Highlighted RSI graph, notice the Twin Peak Things in prior cascade. We are lining up with Thing Two. After the Things visit there will be quite a mess to clean up imo.
IMO it is very unlikely that a real rally begins here, although Santa could bring a few days of holiday cheer, Mr Grinch will be just around the corner to spoil the holiday party. Historically a Santa rally does not visit bear markets. Signpost marker on Weds 28 Dec is purely notional based on overlay.
In fact, another decline could begin at any time. Lot of resistance present at highs near 3890 on 12/21. Futures at time of this writing suggest a notch higher still.
Projections are notional based on repeating pattern from Aug-October decline. So far has followed along pretty closely. IF the pattern repeats, we could be looking at 3640 on the Left Inverted Shoulder low by Monday 9 Jan 2023. This projection suggests a Right Inverted Shoulder may form; in fact an even lower low could emerge in January!
Either way, an even weaker rally might ensue thereafter in the weeks leading up to FOMC on 1 Feb, likely to be another trigger event.
IF the pattern mimics 2009, a waterfall cascade in Feb/Mar 2023 will see capitulation and real panic to conclude the Great Bear of 2022.
AUDJPY I Intraday short opportunity Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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EURGBP I Long from weekly supportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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BTC/USD - Will we see a Death Cross on the Bitcoin 1 week chart?Looking at the BTC/USD 1 week chart, we can see that the 50MA (Yellow Line) is now getting really close to the 200MA (Red Line). A crossover would signal a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the entire history and available data on this BTC/USD 1 week chart, we can see that the 50MA has never crossed under the 200MA on this 1w timeframe. Note that the 50MA did come very close to crossing under the 200MA around the week of the 30th Nov 2015 but in the end, it didn’t happen.
Other notes:
BTC is still in a Massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern.
BTC is also still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is still under all 3 of its major unique Ichimoku Kumo (Cloud) patterns.
BTC is still under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA.
Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow, we can see that we are still in the Distribution Zone traveling slightly upwards but would say more like 'sideways within a range' on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the CMF (Green Line) is still under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) (Blue Line) which is a sign of continued weakness on this 1 week timeframe.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) but has starting to slope downwards. Note that both the MACD Line and Signal Line are still deep in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line. Note that the last green histogram had also decreased in size and this weekly one looks like it will also close smaller than the last indicating upwards momentum is weakening on this 1w timeframe.
Interesting times and potential opportunities ahead once this World Recession bottoms.
I hope this quick chart is helpful.
VET/USD - 1w chart Update and my opinionLet’s have another quick look at the VET/USD 1w chart.
Here is a closer look at this 1w chart.
VeChain is still in its Descending Wedge Pattern on this 1w chart. Note that VET failed to close a weekly candle above its upper descending trend line of its Descending Wedge Pattern at around $0.0286. $0.0286 was also the previous high from Mon 23rd Jul 2018.
VeChain is still below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1w chart.
VET is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1w chart. Note that the Lower Band has started to curve downwards indicating volatility for the downside on this 1w chart.
Note that the 50MA (Orange Line) is getting really close to the 200MA (Red Line). If the 50MA crosses under the 200MA on this 1w chart that will create a death cross on this 1 week timeframe.
VET is now fighting to stay above its support area located at $0.01978 and $0.0181. If VET closes a weekly candle below $0.0181 then we should drop to around $0.0120.
VET is below its 1 ($0.01845) Trend Based Fib Extension Level. Failure to close a weekly candle above this level will lead to further drops.
Looking at the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) we can see the area i which the most Volume was traded on VET/USD.
Note that VET is close to dropping under its 78.60% Fib Retracement Level at $0.01811.
I have added a Modified Schiff Pitchfork pattern and you can clearly see that VET has a long way togo before crossing back above its Median Line.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is still weak with the ADX (Orange Line) at 16.34 and still under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line). Positive Momentum has dropped with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 16.39. Negative Momentum has Increased with the -DI (Red Line) rising to 24.32.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that there is still plenty of room for VET to drop before becoming Oversold on this 1w chart. Note that the RSI (Purple Line) is still under its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) which is a sign of downwards strength on this 1w timeframe.
So what does all this tell me:
This is all just my opinion but this tells me that there is plenty of room for VET to drop further on this 1w timeframe especially if it closes a weekly candle below its 78.60% Fib Retracement level.
Once this world wide recession fully bottoms be it in a 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then opportunities will arise for those who are ready. My crypto of choice is obviously VET and a few others that have use cases but this goes for all Crypto’s so soon your crypto of choice will be available at an even lower bargain price. Especially if/when BTC drops to the $12k-$9k range. Please see the chart below.
I hope this is helpful with your trading or hodl-ing.
EURUSD I 30 min breakout I SHORT!
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GBPAUD I Potential short from reversal zoneWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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GBPJPY I Local Intraday SHORT!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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FED DAY!!!Good morning! Well.....yesterday's down day I'm assuming was because of the JOLTS Report. Employment openings for the month totaled 10.72 million. Estimated 9.85 million. So, well above. This is something the FED does not want to see. It doesn't help inflation. But again, everyone wants to hear what J Powell has to say today. What could happen after he speaks and in the coming days?
Although we are above the 50 day, I feel that there are more elements of a bear market. We could be in the finishing days of the ABC correction of this bear rally before rolling over. And, I'd still be ok with seeing the market heading to 3970ish, 4010ish. The price action at those levels will really tell me if this is a bear rally or not. So when will we get our pivot from the Fed? I really don't think we'll see a change in an upward direction until early 2023. Maybe February or March we could see a final low. Especially if we get another .75 in December.
Plan for today: If we get a 2%, 3% up day, I'm not going to go chase it. We could trade sideways the next couple days before we make the next move. If we push to 3970ish, 4010ish, I will monitor the price action and volume to pre-determine next week's possible outlook. And if the market doesn't like what J Powell has to say today and we sell off....well, I'll start to manage my short positions I'm currently holding and follow my levels down. Stay disciplined, be patient, trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
EURUSD I Intraday Buy from Support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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AUDCAD Short term buy from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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