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50retracement

The Palantir of tradingA Palantir, if you did not know, is otherwise known as a crystal ball; a seeing stone. It was what Saruman used in Lord of the Rings to "see" and that ultimately led to his corruption by Sauron. I've seen this stock corrupt the career of aspiring traders... I was asked my advice on Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR . I don't like to give "advice" on what for other traders to do... but I will say what I have done, what I am doing, and tell you a story that hopefully help traders be better. I bought PLTR at an average price of about $9/share. Great! Not really, it was July 2022, and I bagheld all the way down to $6: a -33% unrealized loss over about a year of time. But what I had done was only purchased 200 shares. My position was relatively small; it didn't bother me. I slept just fine. I was encouraged to buy PLTR by a good trading buddy. We would talk and trade every day for years since the pandemic. He was super bullish on this stock and I really bought it and held it in solidarity with my friend. Then in May 2023 the stock finally took off. I had my shares and my friend traded PLTR options. However, they were short duration options. In the May - August rally he multiplied his account many times. More money than he had ever had in his young life. Things were going great. He was finally RIGHT! But then... The stock stopped moving. Unfortunately, my friend had taken his success and tried to repeat it. Options need movement. PLTR did not move enough. He lost it all. He left our group and quit trading altogether... ...just before the August 2024 rally. If you like the company, OWN THE SHARES Since the pandemic I have tried my best to educate traders that the short term, gambler's mentality inherent in options is a path to disaster for the vast majority of traders. Patience. It's hard but it pays. I still have my shares. They are up big. They are pulling back, sure. But I don't care. I was small, I have a very low buy price, and I can just wait. Now that PLTR has moved though... inevitably people want it. Since the start of the year I've been asked repeatedly about buying it. What I tell people is that any tech or volatile stock like this WILL have AT LEAST a -50% (usually more) pullback. Be patient. I do not get interested until that happens. Even then it still may get even cheaper. Be patient. Trade wisely.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by norok
2
Microstrategy Enters "The Valley of Risk"A term I have coined, "The Valley of Risk", describes a price chart which has had a prior very strong bullish trend, pulls back to its 50% Retracement Support, and then fails to hold it... entering a long, grinding, bearish deflation which coincides with the heavy negative emotion being felt by those still holding the bag. Inside the "Valley of Risk" nothing one does is correct: If you sell... it will bottom and rally If you buy... it will continue down If you baghold... it will continue to go down until you cannot stand it and #1 This is just a pattern of human emotion being reflected on a price chart... which is what price charts ultimately are. It is best to avoid going into the Valley of Risk and have strict rules against bagholding. Deploy your capital elsewhere that there is a better potential rate of return. When I teach about this concept I always look back to Zillow NASDAQ:Z . This was a stock I bought "on a dip" at 111 and made the right decision to sell my position at a loss at 102 when the stock price violated the 50% Support. This allowed me to avoid the horrible Earnings miss gap and the final -74% depreciation. My position still would not have recovered as of writing. As I published months ago, it became clear to me that the over exuberance and fancy financial buzz words being thrown around about NASDAQ:MSTR were signs of a ponzi about to collapse. Well, the "Bitcoin nuclear reactor" has cooled and the leverage baked into Microstrategy would be its downfall. That has now come to pass. There are some other interesting elements of price action which have been textbook in this decline that I want to talk about in this post. The 50% Retracement: The operative level for the last 3 months has been 328. This is the 50% Retracement of the YOLO rally. In the pullback from the ATH 440 became the 50% Retracement Resistance. The Ichimoku Cloud Breakout Confirmed: The other textbook setup was when the Ichimoku Cloud Breakout was confirmed by the Lagging Span entering clear bearish space after price had exited the cloud. Interestingly, this happened at the same exact day as Bitcoin; last Friday. You can read more about this strategy and my 14 year study of how effective it is in my recent Ideas: So what now? That is the eternal question of "The Valley of Risk". There is never a good answer because the technical supports have been broken. Personally though I need to answer this question for my bearish positions. The most logical point to look would be the Volume Profile POC at 165. However, Microstrategy is going to move concurrent to Bitcoin itself and knowing the past bearish cycle patterns this week, through brutal, will find a bottom. I do not believe it will be the final bottom only that price may hesitate at some point for perhaps even a month. My trade management This week I will be selling premium against my long Puts, which go out to 2027, to offset my Theta while still remaining short Delta.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by norok
Nucor (NUE) Materials Play for 2025NYSE:NUE announced earnings this morning. The subsequent opening price action triggered a Spike Alert on the opening 30 minute bar which brought the stock to my attention. This spike was generated by the Earnings opening price action. Earnings beat estimates and the stock rallied. However, where the spike breached... and more importantly held... was what interests me. Price Action Support The combined supports of: The 50% Retracement of the trend from January 3rd to January 21st The Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) for the Trend ...being tested and held are a great sign that price has found support and is respecting it. To further my analysis of the stock for a long term hold I graduated up to the Weekly Timeframe. The same two confluences of 50% Retracement and Volume Profile POC have come together and prior to today's Earnings they held as Support in late December 2024. Finally, we can move up to the Monthly and see the Ichimoku Cloud holding as a potential Ichimoku Cloud pullback. Fundamentals NYSE:NUE is a company that has been around a long time. It is a Materials Company (Steel, mostly) with a long price history to look back on. Doing so I noticed that the company's price trends were highly cyclical covering many years. The current pullback that price is within represents a close to -40% discount from the All Time High. The stock's performance will likely depend on economic demand in the coming years. Trade Management For this Entry to be valid it should first hold today's Earning Spike low and continue to rally. In the longer term price should not violate the low set during the month of January 2025. Holding both would be great and be exactly as I plan this trade. Violating either or both means the Support is wrong. Market Thoughts As a final thought; a lot of investors ask me questions about whatever is "HOT" and in the news. Clearly, this week (and for many weeks) that has been everything tech. You will not find me very interested in chasing these stocks. Not until they have had huge (-50%, -60%) drawdowns. These plays (like Nucor) are the ones I try to find to start my year and then hold them for long to come. Trade wisely.
NYSE:NUELong
by norok
Why Buy LLY?A textbook spike trade... that's why! Every morning the stock market open gives us opening volatility spikes on the first 30 minute bar. Most are noise but when that rare one comes along that fits my rules AND has multiple matching confluences... it's time to "Strike at the Spike!" This setup has going for it: At a 50% Retracement of the recent trend (from November 18 - December 4) At the top of a Gap Level At the Volume Profile Point-of-Control for the last year of price action (see below) With a Spike that my indicator shows >80% ATR Clearance I consider the baseline for a trade; this one is 150% so it definitely fits the rules. I would take a spike if there were only 2 of those matching levels above. Targeting the local high for the first take profit at 834. Here is the Daily chart for just how key this level is: Full disclosure: NYSE:LLY is and has been one of my biggest holdings; having owned the stock for over a decade.
NYSE:LLYLong
by norok
Look for Spikes to get Long EthereumLate to the crypto bull run? Maybe not! Technical Analysis is not about predicting the future... it is about identifying opportunity. COINBASE:ETHUSD has been bullish for a few weeks and I've been patiently waiting for it to trigger a setup. I got what I was looking for on Tuesday of this week and it made for a great teachable moment combining my Spike Indicator, 50% Retracements, and Volume Profile. Another "MUST TAKE" opportunity that traders should study and look for...
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by norok
1
Bitcoin Short Position UpdateBeen short INDEX:BTCUSD since April with AMEX:BITI (Proshares Bitcoin Short ETF). The media writes "reasons" that Bitcoin is down each day but real reason Bitcoin is down any day is the failure to confirm new ATH in April. I do somewhat lament my bearish bias because I missed a good long off 50% level in this liquidation but I'll go into why I remain bearish in this post. Zoom Monthly to see why Bitcoin is bearish: No one buying. "ETF inflow" reports don't matter. On-Chain analysis doesn't matter. To reach fabled 6-figure levels investors need YOLO in with reckless abandon. Clearly not happening in price action. Technically this manifests on the chart with monthly bars trying but failing at the 2021 ATH. Also at a basic technical level lower highs and lower lows. For the second time in this post-ATH-fail range Ichimoku Bullish breakouts have failed and Bitcoin has gone confirmed bearish. Ichimoku is a best used trending strategy so it sucks when this price action happens but over time has proven itself effective in managing long term positions. Long term holds should be OFF right now in its current Ichimoku trend state. So where is BTCUSD going? Back to the ETF Launch. Either by karma or irony... markets have a tendency to punish overhype. It would be the most irrational (thus market rational) thing for price to return to whence it began. This is where I begin taking profit on my short. I may even be interested to get long depending...
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
7
Monero back in "Fair Value"Of all cryptocurrencies I see Monero KRAKEN:XMRUSD differently as a good "store of value" which is private. That makes me a little looser with my trading guidelines for other assets. Monero has also proven difficult to trade in recent years... it has had some volatile swings but overall has broadly kept its value. The recent cryptocurrency downtrend, led by Bitcoin, has finally caused the otherwise resilient Monero to break back into the 140 range. 140 on Monero for the last several years I have seen as "fair value" to accumulate. This is also the 50% Retracement of the recent trend and the Volume Profile Point of Control.
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by norok
1
XYL Multiple Levels of SupportAlso on my morning Spike scanner came up NYSE:XYL (see below for the spike on the 30m timeframe). I especially like this Support level as it has many matching components: 50% Retracement Level. My bread and butter. The most important Retracement Level. Volume Profile node. Not the POC but a key level of price and volume here. Ichimoku Cloud. A long flat SKB with the Lagging Span far away from crossing into bearish territory. This is the Spike that triggered me to look and find price acting such a way at Support: The take profit target is easy to find; the POC on the Volume Profile for the bullish trend. The stop is between the current VP node and the next significant one (which could be next support but no reason to take that much risk).
NYSE:XYLLong
by norok
Bitcoin Spike at ResistanceBitcoin HELD the Last Support noted in my Idea last week. That save INDEX:BTCUSD from going bearish. However, it is not out of the woods yet. Today Bitcoin spiked the 50% Retracement Resistance at 64652. This sets up a short trade where if the high of the spike is broken "you know you're wrong" for a low risk/high reward trade. If the Spike high is broken... Bitcoin may trend bullish and even resume the full bull trend onward to 100k+. However, if this spike is a reversal and price retests the lows of last week, this will trigger a full trend flip to bearish via the Ichimoku cloud.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
1
Trading Bitcoin FuturesTo keep actively trading Bitcoin short... I am watching and trading Bitcoin futures. This morning there was a 30 minute timeframe Spike right at the level I have been watching since after the ETF launch: the 50% Retracement of the "Sell the News" phase. I am looking for price to hold this level as Resistance and retrace at least back to 41000 in short time. Higher Timeframe Update: The area of Resistance that is the 50% of the ETF Selloff is where Bitcoin has retraced to over the last week. On Monday 1/22 I was able to hedge my Puts by selling shorter dated Puts against them to hedge and offset theta. I closed them yesterday. Broadly, Bitcoin is still in this battle zone from the ATH to the November 22 low. Mainstream Adoption Back in the old days... Bitcoin was best traded spot on margin on exchanges. Now, all the reputable exchanges are KYC and the new ones popping up would never fool an old timer like me into putting money there. I have even received spam here on Tradingview from exchange reps trying to get me to do affiliate programs. No, never. Bitcoin is now a heavily traded asset with countless derivatives. It is truly mainstream.
CME:MBT1!Short
by norok
2
JP Morgan Short off All Time HighWith the stock market making new All Time Highs fresh new opportunities for contrarian trades are going to be somewhat scarce. Thanks to a viewer on my Livestream (every Friday on Tradingview: 4pm EST UTC-5) I was made aware of a short setup I like on NYSE:JPM Context This price action is happening at a test of the past ATH set in November 2021. Last week the Earnings announcement pushed price intraday above the high only to close well below the key Resistance level of the former ATH. This is a false breakout signal or as I like to identify them as: Spikes. The Spike The Spike occurred on Earnings. I have found that false breakouts on earnings have a very high probability of signaling a reversal. The significance value (135% ATR) is within my rules. It took until the following week for price to actually pull back to the proper entry point of the Spike bar's Tenkan Sen value at 172.48. What these factors mean I go over during my Livestream. The Trade How I am expressing this trade is in a combination of short shares and Puts. In choosing my Put strike I look for where I see price going as a target via technical analysis. In this case it would be the 50% Retracement of the bullish trend around 155. For expiration I consider the prior bullish trend that got price up to the high I am reading as a false breakout to enter. I project the time that trend took, add an additional month as a time buffer, and then typically take that expiration. Unfortunately, an option expiring in March as this technique would suggest puts the expiration too close and just before earnings. A note about options and earnings: In the 4 weeks prior to earnings very typically a stock's options will experience a rise in IV (implied volatility). This rise in IV and the Greek Vega can increase the prices of all options often offsetting the value lost to theta time decay. This is a very advantageous condition if a trader is long single options. Therefor, I chose the April expirations to give myself the potential for the IV push. I will likely close the options the day before earnings regardless of where price may be. Options are a coin flip.
NYSE:JPMShort
by norok
1
Opportunity on PFEA viewer on my Livestream Friday brought to my attention that Pfizer NYSE:PFE is coming off a major low (COVID Low) and has done a pullback to the 50% of the Impulse Move off said low. This is why I love doing Livestreams and having a trading community... idea crowdsourcing! I like these setups especially as the S&P 500 and many stocks within it are making new 52 Week highs leaving many wondering "what's a good reward/risk at this point?" The pullback on the Weekly bring price to the 50% of what I call an "Impulse Move" off the low: the first major reaction to confirm that price is respecting a low. See the Daily chart below for a lower timeframe view: I would not want to hold the position if price breached the major low. My first Target would be the 50% Retracement of the Bearish trend at 40.32. This sets up a proper 3 to 1 Reward/Risk Ratio. I will likely express this trade with shares purchased but may seek to buy Calls as well.
NYSE:PFELong
by norok
6
Wallgreens Long for 2024This morning I received a volatility alert on $NASDAQ:WBA. The stock had earnings today and the resulting price action was bearish down to a significant potential support level. The Trade The Weekly the Ichimoku 9-period (red line) shows that short term 50% level as it goes flat providing a Weekly entry point. The risk is that price makes another major low. In my trading toolbox I call this setup a "TS Recap." I discuss these during my Weekly Livestreams here on Tradingview. I was able to enter my position earlier this morning and price has responded favorably by the time of writing (fill before you shill). The Context Since November 30, 2023 NASDAQ:WBA has had a bullish trend off the recent major low. I call these type of moves "Impulse Moves" because they represent significant buying over a short period of time that have the potential to be the first move of a full trend reversal. I look to take them as trades (or long term positions entries) when they perform a pullback to their 50% Retracement. This is what it looks like on the Daily timeframe: If we go up to the Monthly we see that NASDAQ:WBA is doing this price action at historic, 2008 and 2000 lows. This is a significant point and worth the risk for a long with a time horizon to span 2024.
NASDAQ:WBALong
by norok
4
Bitcoin Spike on DailyOne of my primary technical analysis trading tools is that of False Breakouts or as I identify them; Spikes . I have found that when prices moves quickly in one direction only to return in the opposite direction within the same or following candle this indicates a potential reversal with a high probability. The corollary to this concept is that if price does then break that "spike" bar the trend can be confirmed. The Spike I have been watching the price action of Bitcoin exceptionally close over the last few weeks as the 2023 bullish trend approached and has stubbornly held a major Resistance. On the first US market open trading day of 2024 Bitcoin made a push to break the recent consolidation. However, the following day Bitcoin price reacted with a nearly -10% drop. Such a daily move is not uncommon in Bitcoin but where and when it happened is significant. I operate under the logical thesis that if something is bullish... it should GO. There should be no such major rejections if the trend is strong. To have such a sudden rejection qualifies as a "Spike" and I created an indicator that identifies these for me to filter out the noise. That is exactly what happened at this point and place in Bitcoin price action. This spike bolsters my conviction that the 2023 bull trend of Bitcoin has reached its zenith. The Levels If this spike proves to be a bearish reversal then the supports I identify based on past price inflation and 50% Retracements are: 35,400 30,700 If price surpasses the high of this week significantly the next level of Resistance is the March 2022 high of 48,200: Expressing the Trade Contrary to popular memes there exists already Bitcoin based ETFs. Rather than deal with the theta decay aspect of options the symbol AMEX:BITI is the SHORT Bitcoin ETF. The price action is distorted but it also exhibited the Daily Spike price action. This instrument is the one I will use to express bearish trades on Bitcoin going forward. I talk about my Spikes as a trading concept often during my Weekly Livestreams here on Tradingview. You may also follow my last few years of Bitcoin price action analysis in the links below to see how we got here. Trade wisely!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
6
Netflix Identifies ResistanceWe have been watching this stock for a while during my weekly Livestreams (Fridays 4pm EST UTC-4). Last Friday, we noted that NASDAQ:NFLX has pulled back up to retest the 50% of the July Weekly Spike price action. This is happening following a long bullish recovery trend up to the MAJOR Weekly 50% Retracement Resistance of the November 2021-May 2022 bear trend. The price action has defined itself clearly with the July high. The risk and wrong occurs with a breach of the July high. With this in mind we can define a high risk/reward trade to at least a 3 to 1 down to 257 and possibly beyond to retest the major low from 2022. Implied Volatility is below average which is good for options. However, this is NOT a trade that can be effectively expressed with low duration expiries even though it might be tempting due to the high cost of the stock. To express this trade one must go well into 2024 expirations or short shares.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by norok
4
Bull Market Faces First TestToday's economic news was jobs data which in fact came in worse than expected. "In July there were just 8.827 million job openings, the first sub-9 million print since March 2021. It was also the 3rd biggest miss on record!" -Zerohedge Yet despite this news the stock market rallied significantly higher. The market responding positively to bad news is a fundamentally bull market phenomenon. In the technical context what the market has done through the month of August was a -5%+ correction. Statistically, in any given year there are on average 3 -5% corrections. In March we had the first and now as the market rallies it is very possible we have seen the second. The correction stopped just where it should; the 50% Retracement of the May - June rally. It has now come to test today the 50% Retracement of the move down. As of writing it does appear that it will close above this level which suggests a retest of the July high. Breaking this high is likely due to the strength of the bull trend of 2023.
AMEX:SPY
by norok
5
Rivian 'Dead Cat Bounce' Over?I have been getting a lot of questions from followers about NASDAQ:RIVN in recent weeks. One of the favorites of the 2021 EV stock craze the share price has done not performed well since the IPO. This recent very bullish move has gotten a lot of attention but I think it has come to an end. Price Action Like most of my setups I am looking at RIVN hitting a major 50% Retracement this one being from the downtrend starting in September 2022 through April 2023. That Resistance at 26.71 was hit yesterday and today's price action shows reluctance to test and break it. I have been looking for a pullback to this bull trend to its own 50% Retracement at around ~20 and it may be upon us. The Trade Earnings are coming up on August 8th. That sets up a nice window for monthly options of the August 18th expiration. Since 20 is the approximate pullback level it also makes for a proper strike. That means Aug23 20 Puts will be the choice to express the trade. If price breaks the recent high I may look to cut them as they should maintain their premium with earnings getting closer. I also do not typically hold through earnings but rather try to close the day before to avoid the 50/50 probability of the binary event. The Narrative I still see the occasional Rivian on the road but as of late I have become a Tesla Maxi. Tesla had record production and delivery for Q2 2023 but every other EV manufacturer is struggling according to recent reports. The market as a whole has enjoyed an optimistic bull run since March and is due for a pullback.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by norok
11
Target-ing (TGT) a LongThe Setup Target NYSE:TGT has had a very bearish fall off All-Time-Highs over the last 2 years. It has finally retraced the entire length of its run from the 2019 Pre-COVID High and returned to it as potential Support. Price MUST hold here or else continue down to lower levels in the "Valley of Risk". It is worth a trade off this level. The Trade: Today on the opening 30 minute spike we got such an opportunity for a low-risk entry. The price spike had an acceptable ATR Clearance per my rules and happened on the 50% Retracement of the June low to June high. The first Target is the June high with a following target of the 50% Retracement of the 2023 bear trend around 153.39.
NYSE:TGTLong
by norok
12
Bitcoin Barely Touches SupportSome interesting news developments have transpired related to Bitcoin this week. On Monday, The SEC sued Binance with 13 charges. On Tuesday, The SEC sued Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN . The regulators have been busy this week going after the biggest crypto exchanges. It's almost as if we need a monetary system outside of government interference... What does this mean for traders and investors right now? In the context of 2023’s price action the fallout from these announcements is insignificant and completely in line with technical analysis. I have been watching for this pullback in theory since the last buying opportunity in March to see where and when the rally off the Banking Crisis FUD did its first major Retracement. The financial media focused on Bitcoin attributed the rise from early March to people putting faith in Bitcoin above the US Dollar system. The salient point that they all miss was that in the event of a market risk shock Bitcoin fell as a risk asset. I’ve had the level 25280 marked since the high at the top of the FOMO hype rally following Balaji Srinivasan’s Twitter “bet” that Bitcoin was going to $1,000,000 in 3 months. It would have been more profitable for people if he had made this buy call in March (as I did with less narrative flare) but it really came in the moment of the 5th Eliot wave when the latecomers are looking for a reason to chase and make such fluff go viral. Srinivasan still has 24 days to be correct… who knows? This week’s news dip missed my marked level (and alert) by $51. It could still hit but because it was so close I am making this update post. I must stress how key this Support level is to the 2023 trend. Just as a breakout from the Ichimoku cloud followed by momentum confirmation signaled the year’s bull run… the opposite signal should be taken as its end. At this point in time and price should that level 25280 be breached by closing a few days below the 2023 trend would be over. However, as the reaction is currently bullish, the price is still likely to climb to retest the 30k range. Trade wisely.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by norok
30
Norwegian Cruise to get back above water?When's the last time anyone has looked at cruise lines? I remember back in 2020 cruise lines were the "value trade". It worked for a while after the pandemic drop... the price of these stocks recovered. NYSE:NCLH did a recovery back to the 50% Retracement Resistance of the drop itself... but could not quite get its head back above water. Yet another in a long list of examples of why 50% Retracements are so powerful. The price action over the last year has setup higher lows and higher highs. This gives some confidence to a true recovery. This morning I was alerted to the stock by an opening 30 minute price spike and false breakout of the last week's range. This sets up a good reward/risk trade with an entry at 12.51.
NYSE:NCLHLong
by norok
1