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50retracement

Stock Market at Critical LevelThe AMEX:SPY and S&P Index futures are at a key Support Level going into today FOMO Meeting. November ended with much Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) that the -5% pullback was finally the correction territory everyone has been awaiting since the start of 2021... (also since 2020, also since 2008) Instead, price made a run for the All Time High but fell short. At this point I am watching to see if it was a true failure to break. The best way to know is whether or not price holds this 50% Retracement Level of the December rally. Should the Support hold I would be watching for the Santa Claus rally to continue. We could still post a new ATH for 2021. Should the Support break it would be evidence of a failure to make a new All Time High for the month of December and be the Combobreaker for 2021 (every other month in 2021 posted a new ATH). Failures to break All Time Highs are a common bearish pattern. On a narrative note... now is the time of year for reflection, rebalancing, and tax consideration. Overall it has been a good year for a lot of traders and investors myself included. I am sure everyone to some extent is making moves relative to their yearly performance during this time. If I had to explain a "reason" for this month's price action it would not be the Fed so much as the end of a very bullish year for the stock market.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by norok
4
Paypal (PYPL) getting interestingWas doing some weekend homework on stocks my social media followers are into while I watched the last few episodes of Billions and came to NASDAQ:PYPL . I've been watching this stock since it hit my alert at 195.59 in November. The last two weeks of price action have piqued my interest. On the 30 minute timeframe (which I consider the swing trading timeframe) there have been two potential reversal patterns playing out. The first being an inverse head and shoulder defined by price spikes being bought up... followed by a short term Ichimoku/50% Retracement. The latter presents the favorable risk/reward scenario. Price getting back into the 180s would trigger a tight stop but if price holds this reversal a long term trader/investor would be good for the rise to retest the highs over the next year.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by norok
2
Money where your mouth is... ARKKI admire folks that are willing to put their trading out there for comment and criticism. It takes a lot of emotional control to trade in isolation much less when under public scrutiny. Cathie Wood was the idol of the trading world last year and widely followed for her style of exciting and parabolic investing as well as her public charisma and confidence. There was one interview in particular (I wish I could find it now but she has done many) where she acknowledged that within her trading history she has had cycles of incredible returns invariably followed by large drawdowns. She gave this interview right around the peak of her funds' performance last year. Real recognize real. That she would openly acknowledge and admit that she had self identified this pattern of her trading spoke to my own journey and likely that of all serious traders. She had acute self awareness and in some way, in that interview and comment, was warning people to be cautious with her strategy at that current moment. Now as her funds decline other traders are trying to make a name for themselves off her fall. One of which that has come to my attention is Puru Saxena. He is vocally short her funds and very bearish. That is fine for them to have a battle; no need for me to get involved. Cathie has her strategy focused on long term growth. Puru bases his strategy on macro. Neither are my game. But now it gets interesting for me as a Technical Trader. At the same time Puru is adding to his short AMEX:ARKK is sitting right at a 50% Retracement of the major trend. Over the last few days price spiked below this level only to recover quickly above it. These are my strategy. So now I get to step into this battle by putting my own capital on the line. It's a low risk/high reward trade. Not for the money but for the validation of Technical Analysis versus macro.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by norok
6
Bitcoin hanging out at key Retracement LevelTwo major components of my analysis and trading style are: 1. 50% Retracement Levels 2. Candlestick closes I find it fascinating (and useful) when price reaches a key Retracement level after a big trend and then respect it. Very often these instances yield great trading setups. Bitcoin seemingly BROKE the Retracement of its trend from the Summer 2021 lows back up to try for a new Bull run. What price actually did on that liquidation was HOLD the Retracement as confirmed by the candlestick closing just back above. So long as traders were not over leveraged into liquidation or had unfortunate stops along the way there was reason for optimism. Over the last few days Bitcoin has continued to flirt with this level rather than rise from it. In the short term a battle is going on. A solid close back below the level would suggest an attempt to retest the spike low. Holding the Retracement longer would be bullish.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
2
Looking for a rally in Oil stocksThe market looks to be recovery today and the most interesting stocks to me were oil companies ( NYSE:XOM , NYSE:MRO , NYSE:COP ) which all exhibited morning open volatility spikes. The one I liked the most because it was at at 50% Retracement (see high timeframe below) is XOM so it fits my criteria for a long trade. I'll be looking for a retest of the last major highs. This is also an addon positions to a winner from the beginning of 2021 (see Related Idea).
NYSE:XOMLong
by norok
4
SPY within bearish spike tradeThis Wednesday nearly every stock in my list is up. The market as a whole is doing a recovery today. I went to the Daily AMEX:SPY to see where price action stands and found that price action of the SPY is within a bearish spike that occurred on November 22. In any instrument this would be a signal albeit the statistics of the spike's clearance are sub optimal. As price approaches 464 it will test the 50% Retracement "line in the sand" as Resistance. Conquering this, it can go on to retest the ATH, make a new one, and continue the "Santa Claus rally" that I have been expecting from this "normal" year. If the bearish pattern continues it could find support in the region around 450 that was a prior ATH and the 50% retracement of the last leg up. Currently momentum remains bullish according to Ichimoku. Price has through the first days of December to stay on the bullish side of price action.
AMEX:SPY
by norok
3
Zillow is a falling knifeOver the weekend it was reported ZILLOW PAUSES HOME PURCHASES AS SNAGS HIT TECH-POWERED FLIPPING For those not familiar with NASDAQ:Z 's recent business model they have been on a buying frenzy no doubt fueled by low interest credit to give home sellers fast cash offers on houses based on prices that Zillow determines via their machine learning algorithms. It is a bold strategy Cotton; let's see if it pays off! That buying which has been going on unabated for months with ever rising prices seems to have hit a dip. I would not call this the "top of the housing market" by any means but it is a data point we can refer back to should the future prove it to be a top. Technically speaking the chart of Zillow is not pretty. I was long Zillow on the 50% Retracement over the summer but abandoned the position as it solidly broke the level. I am content to be out as it grinds lower from a risk management perspective. This is yet another reason to not baghold. I would look for signs of reversal to perhaps get back in at a future time but right now price action on the broader trend is in no-man's land.
NASDAQ:ZShort
by norok
1
Spike Trade ExampleThis morning on the jobs report the S&P 500 futures spike in the premarket to a new All Time High but quickly shot back down. This triggers my indicator and an alert withing Tradingview to come check the price action and yields a potential trading opportunity. The risk is defined by the + at the top of the spike. Fundamentally, if the market makes a new ATH the trade is wrong and should be exited. If this volatility spike reveals a top then the trade should hold and the lower + represents a 3-to-1 reward-to-risk target from the entry on a pullback to the red median line. These + indicators are tools for defining the risk and reward of the trading opportunity. Technical Analysis would give potential Retracement Levels. The first Retracement Level at 4505 happens to yield the desired 3-to-1 target as indicated. The longer term Retracement Level at 4450 could be a more ambitious target for more reward or to allow a partial position to continue after reaching the first target.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
Why you still need to take profits in BitcoinFollowing long happy trends where everyone enjoys easy gains often follows hard consolidations where lacking discipline will cause traders to burn capital. That does not mean traders have to fully ignore the market during consolidations. The wise way to approach them is to be dispassionate and take opportunities with structured risk and target levels. This is a followup to my Friday Livestream where I acknowledged my bearish sentiment in BITFINEX:BTCUSD had me miss a key Resistance turned Support which also setup a volatility spike trade on the 30m timeframe right at said level. Price held the Major Retracement level to achieve a 3-to-1 reward/risk trade. At which point a wise trader could have cut their position and left on a remaining long position to allow for a bullish continuation. Price came back to entry following the profit level which would have put the trade in peril... but since profit was taken even a loss of the remainder would still yield an overall net positive trade. The trader would not have needed to move their stop from the initial level to maintain the position for today's pump. Be mindful that the recent highs are still not broken and Bitcoin continues to trade within this range. Trade wisely!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by norok
Looking for positive Delta on DALIn my livestream last Friday I talked about how I like the stock Delta NYSE:DAL . I like the company because any time I fly this company is going to be my choice. It's properly priced for its value compared to other airlines. Granted, there are unique risks that airlines face such as fuel costs and accidents but people will always need to travel from A to B. I would not enter a trade without a technical setup and risk definition. The level DAL is holding represents both a long term Retracement from the 2020 crash and a short term Retracement from the Q4 2020 bull trend. The short term consolidation creates lows that must hold to remain a valid bullish trade. I took both shares and options (Feb 2022 48 Calls) to express this trade.
NYSE:DALLong
by norok
PGNY at 50%NASDAQ:PGNY is a stock that I have been in for over a year. It is a rare case where I have a fundamental bias (rather than technical to start) as a friend clued me into it June 2020. The fundamental case for this company is that they offer fertility services and their "moat" is that already have many deals with Fortune 500 companies that offer fertility packages in compensation to workers to delay parenthood in favor of careers. With the research showing that the trend is continuing that women are delaying family in favor of career I believe this company is a strong hold for the coming decade. It is now providing a technical setup with a short term risk defined entry. I have been waiting for such an opportunity after watching the last year's run.
NASDAQ:PGNYLong
by norok
Mind the Gap: HOODThe Robinhood NASDAQ:HOOD IPO continues to be an interesting stock to watch. After holding the 50% Retracement it failed to make a new high. Now is it breaking the retest and near the close today is testing the gap open from yesterday. The big brain play is to short meme stocks like this... but how? Shorting shares carries unlimited risk and buying Puts burns capital as volatility and time decay. In my Livestream tomorrow 4pm Eastern (at the market close) I'll look at a few strategies traders can use to bet on the hype failing and capture the FOMO pain gains.
NASDAQ:HOODShort
by norok
2
Hedging with short DVNWhen the market reached a (new) All Time High earlier today I wanted to get some short Delta in my positions. I learned my lesson during the 'recent unpleasantness' bottom of 7/19 that being all net long puts one at risk of volatility in a portfolio... even if the positions themselves individually remain strong and profitable. This morning's volatility setup a good short entry on NYSE:DVN that by looking at futures this evening should hedge against tomorrow's potential downside. Earnings are close so I may need to de-risk next week before.
NYSE:DVNShort
by norok
1