Hedging with short DVNWhen the market reached a (new) All Time High earlier today I wanted to get some short Delta in my positions. I learned my lesson during the 'recent unpleasantness' bottom of 7/19 that being all net long puts one at risk of volatility in a portfolio... even if the positions themselves individually remain strong and profitable.
This morning's volatility setup a good short entry on NYSE:DVN that by looking at futures this evening should hedge against tomorrow's potential downside.
Earnings are close so I may need to de-risk next week before.
50retracement
COP Multiple Timeframe LevelNYSE:COP pulled back this morning to a Daily timeframe 50% Retracement Level. This level goes back on the Weekly many years.
I like this for a long term hold play for dividends as well as a short term options play for the run up to earnings.
Check out my video idea for more thoughts on combining timeframes for Multiple Timeframe Analysis...
Silver Perfect signal for short Very simple setup for 2.6:1 Reward/Ratio. Let me point out the most important signals here and we have quite few on current chart:
• 200 Emma stopped further gains against dollar
• Followed by long bearish candle accompany with shooting star
• 50% of retracement after mayor drop.
The TP area is within the channel in which silver is traded for the last year.
UBER Price Action AnalysisI was looking at a trade today for a member of my social media. NYSE:UBER looks to have stalled at 52.35 which is right at the 50% Retracement of the recent down move. This if following a retracement of the last bull trend which was around the same zone as the IPO first weeks' price action highs. Price could in the short term retrace down to retest the 5/10/21 low but would remain bullish as long as that low holds. Breaking the 6/28/21 high would be a sign of a bullish breakout.
Should be scanning ETFsCome Monday going to look at a position in XBI (if it has not gone too far). Pulled back and spiked at the Weekly 50% Retracement that matches with prior price action. Stop needs to be just below the low of May 11th.
The industry for this ETF is Biotech. This should make Cathie Wood happy.
SPY Sentiment Signal BearishEvery day I scan the market for individual stocks within the S&P 500 index AMEX:SPY for short term volatility either bullish or bearish. I have begun compiling these signals into a derivative indicator. This morning's score was a -11. The last time the indicator signaled -11.20 was on 4/16/2021 which preceded a few days of downside in the market. This morning's price action made a slight try to get up and test the All Time High but seems to be failing. The first part of the day's down move has retraced to the 50% Retracement level of the day. It is worth taking a short here to test my signal, play the day's price action, and benefit from an asymmetric reward/risk. A failure to retest the last ATH could have much downside.
UPDATE Retracement Levels Script: Finding Support and ResistanceI have updated my Retracements Level script to alert traders to long term Support and Resistance levels based on 50% Fibonacci levels. I think that this is a simple and highly valuable tool that every trader should have in their toolbox to identify key levels that price may respect.
In this video I go over the many uses:
-Long term levels for Entering and Exiting positions
-Multiple Timeframe Analysis
-Catching Catalyst events like Earnings
-Projecting Support and Resistance far into the future