$QCOM in Ascending Triangle $165 PT The global chip shortage is still nowhere near over, making semiconductor companies very attractive here. QCOM is my top pick of the sector as they dont only benefit from the chip shortage they also benefit greatly from the roll out of 5G. The roll out of 5G will be sped up by US investment via the infrastructure bill which allocates $65b to broadband infrastructure. QCOM’s Snapdragon 5G chip is the most cost efficient chip on the market, which should continue to be in high demand as chinese firm Huawei is still banned in the US and UK which creates market share for QCOM given Huawei used to be one of the largest 5G chip manufactures before they were banned in multiple countries. QCOM has been trading in a clear ascending triangle pattern which historically implying further upside (72.7% of the time), QCOM should be able to breakout of this pattern and move higher. Trading at 20x (FWD) PE and a 2% dividend QCOM is trading at a very fair value, with great growth prospects making it a very strong BUY for me.
5g
NOK Nokia 5Price Target Upgrade On 7/14/2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Upgraded the Rating of NOKIA from Neutral to Overweight and a Price Target from $4.30 to $7.80
Nokia has now access to the one of the largest 5G markets with its first contract in China for supplying 5G radios.
This was in line with my last chart here, about Nokia dominating the 5G space:
NOK Nokia Chief Exec: whatever it takes to lead in the 5G spaceNOK Nokia Chief Executive: we will do “whatever it takes” to lead in the 5G space!
On 7/6/2021 BNP Paribas brokerage Upgraded the rating for NOK Nokia from Neutral to Outperform and set a $7.70 price target.
I extended the Fibonnaci retracement tool from the strong support to the previews top and came out with a 6.5usd price target.
Micron Technology: The Spirit of 76?This week was cut short by Independence Day. That makes it a good time to view Micron Technology, which seems to have the spirit of 76.
The memory-chip maker had a false breakdown below that level on January 27. It quickly rebounded and returned to test $76 three times since mid-May. Interestingly, the current bounce is happening near the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) .
Meanwhile, resistance is bearing down from an intermediate-term downtrend. Notice the declining 50-day SMA (in red). Traders may want to watch for a potential breakout as these two moving averages converge from above and below.
Next, MU’s stochastics are oversold on both the daily and weekly charts. This, combined with apparent support at $76, may suggest downside is limited.
There could also be strong fundamentals with the global chip shortage continuing and more demand on the horizon as the 5G buildout continues.
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BRQS Borqs 5GPrice TragetBRQS Borqs Technologies is sitting now close to all time low at the strongest support, with bullish news lately.
Yesterday`s volume was high, 18mil, for a mk cap of 105mil.
My price target is the 2.1usd resistance.
China Mobile Reduces the Power Consumption of 5G Base StationThe large operator has built more than 50% of the 5G base stations in the world.
In July 2021, China Mobile announced that the power consumption of the 5G base station had been reduced to a figure amounting to about three times that of the 4G base stations, about 1900W. The energy consumption of a single station was more than four times that of a 4G station in 2019. At that time, according to China Mobile, a single 4G base station required about CNY 20,000 operating fees per year, while a 5G base station required about CNY 55,000.
Even as the technology becomes more widespread, high power consumption continues to be an important factor hindering the development of 5G.
In the future, the company hopes to further reduce the energy consumption of 5G base stations through the use of new technology layers and devices. The company's goal is to reduce the peak power consumption of 5G base stations to twice that of 4G by 2025.
By the end of March 2021, the number of 5G base stations in China had reached nearly 820,000, accounting for 70% of the 5G base stations in the world. Among them, China Mobile accounted for half, with 410,000 stations. At present, the number of 5G user connections in China exceeds 280 million, accounting for 80% of global 5G connections. Overall, the reduction of energy consumption has serious strategic meaning for the Chinese 5G industry.
Breakout Quarter: Xiaomi is Growing Astonishingly in Q2 20215G devices' sales in China are growing fast.
On July 6, market research firm Strategy Analytics reported that Chinese brands including OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi have reached a staggering number of sales – around USD 15 billion – in Q1 2021, twice that of LTE in the same period.
Data shows that Chinese smartphone manufacturers are rapidly transforming from 4G to 5G. As high-end devices shift towards 5G, the market size of LTE mobile phones has shrunk by 50% in the past quarter.
According to the report, the revenue for 5G achieved an over 500% growth in Q1 2021. Shipment volume to the Chinese market rose 35% year-on-year, compared with the global average of 24%. However, Apple still led in the shipments and revenue of 5G, plus the 4G LTE devices.
In the global top-10 list by revenue for 5G, there are seven Chinese vendors, but in terms of consumers' willingness, they are not yet comparable to high-end brands such as Apple and Samsung.
Chinese manufacturers are bringing higher value to the international market, which forces other brands to improve their mid-range product portfolio.
China 5G industry is the foundation. Good base investmentChina's 5G industry is the foundation of many high-tech applications in China.
After the double bottom, it has been rising and strengthening gradually, this is a healthy bull market and foresee this market to continue to rise for the rest of 2021.
Pullback looks complete and its a good chance to increase position.
ATT - Value PlayATT another boring and very slow moving stock. Forward PE ratio just under 10. You could argue this is anti inflation, anti recession, value rotation type of play. And it offers a dividend. This should be added for a long term hold to the part of your portfolio that you do not trade. Pairing it with BABA, GILD, PFE, WBA, VTRS, AHT, BKD, VEON and so on is a great way to build out a core portfolio without having a huge downside risk. Longterm these value stocks will outperform imo. To make it juicier, selling puts against them should generate more income.
A few other reasons to get excited about it:
- Insiders are buying at these levels. In May CEO, CFO and one of the directors bought a combined of 150,000 shares ~ $4,350,000.
- 200 million customers
- 5G play
- Recently awarded contract upgrade the data network at the Veteran Affairs worth $735 million
Not financial advice.
SMALLCAP - SPACE/5G - FUNDAMENTAL/TECHNICAL - GSATFA:
- Very bullish on space/5G sector, believe it is one of the next big macro trends, also long on GILT, NOK, and others... more analyses to come on this sector.
- Collaborations with Nokia and QCOM... The hype isn't in this sector yet, but ARK is marking ARKX and IZRL for a reason... get in before the FOMO, the sector will see a boom cycle soon.
- High Shares Float is risk.
- Blackrock, Goldman, and RenTec especially have positions and are increasing their ownership substantially.
TA:
- I see wave 3 of impulse wave, good to catch the wave 5... extension is likely as this trend catches on.
QA:
- Bullish options flow.
- Citadel has some options on this, dont be greedy with this high float.
TP1: 4.57
SL: 1.12
RRR: 2.99
PS: Trying to bring you more premium content with my consistent trading strategy and thought process.
huge insider buys in T with trading planCEO John Stankey and CFO Pascal Desroches bought into AT&T with their new focus on 5G only in hopes of being valued more like a CHTR or TMUS. The insider buys totaled 4.5 million dollars between the two.
CHTR and TMUS have far outperformed T, and pretty much every other stock for that matter over the past year. With the dividend being cut and the massive burden of trying to be a second-tier player in the streaming space, which has been getting more and more crowded and difficult to operate in, should allow them to hyper focus on the growth areas of their business.
This is a huge vote of confidence; granted they were buying into weakness, they still are putting their money where their mouths are and are dead-set on wiping the dust off this old dividend play stock which was more like a bond/fixed income than anything else.
*Personal trading plan* Buy stock and long naked calls expiring October 15th at the $30 strike price to give it plenty of time to come to fruition and begin trading closer to its new peers.
First ever 4g/5g network from sat to cellphone & Lassonde curve.First ever global 4g/5g cellular phone network beeing built by $ASTS seems to follow similar market mechanisms and psychologies as that of junior mining operations: The Lassonde curve, with it’s two waves of share price increase.
Only competitor so far (possible duopoly) is Lockheed Martin and Omnispace cooperstion.
Technology is proven with Bluewalker 1 satellite. Huge TAM, small market cap. Founder shares in lockup for 12 months.
There was an manipulation down starting April 6, which is in steep reversal presenting an excellent entry opportunity. Well timed public offering in first wave means first phase fully financed.
Buy $GSAT- NRPicks 21 MarGlobalstar, Inc. offers mobile satellite services worldwide. The company offers two-way voice and data duplex products, including mobile voice and data satellite communications services and equipment for remote business continuity, recreational use, security, preparation and emergency response.
The company in its last earnings report filed losses less than expected of $0.0132 and quarterly revenue of 33.17M.
The most significant development for Globalstar in recent weeks was Qualcomm Technologies' announcement of its Snapdragon modem-RF system, with Qualcomm Technologies' 5G band support, the potential device ecosystem expands significantly to include a large number of industrial and consumer devices.
- Market Cap 2.6B
- Average Volume 26M
Technical:
- MACD Level (12, 26) 0.19
- Average RSI levels
- Bounce in MA50
- Support at $1.50
VISL chillin in historic channel, where will it break?Will we finally see VISL break up and out of this channel? It's been a relatively consistent area of support/resistance. With several potential catalysts to consider here (5G, general broadcast, telecom, esports) it will be interesting to see if these tailwinds act as a stronger catalyst.
"While it will likely focus on some as it relates to 5G penny stocks, esports could be another facet to consider. If you sift through some of the company’s blog posts, you’ll notice that Vislink’s partner, NEP Sweden, covered the “BLAST Premier Spring Series” last year. This is an international esports event featuring the world’s top esports teams competing in the first-person shooter game series Counter-Strike...NEP filmed the event using Vislink’s HCAMs feeding into a ULRX-LD all controlled by Vislink’s FocalPoint Camera Control System. While no further esports-related updates have come about from the company, a surge in the excitement surrounding esports could be something to take note of."
Quote Source: Hot Penny Stocks To Buy Now? 4 To Watch After Roblox (RBLX) IPO
DKNGDISH Network Corp. DISH, +2.12% and DraftKings Inc. DKNG, -3.30% announced Wednesday an agreement in which DraftKings' fantasy experiences and sportsbook will be provided directly to DISH customers. Shares of DISH surged 7.3% in premarket trading and DraftKings rose 2.7%. As part of the agreement, DraftKings' app will be integrated on the DISH TV Hopper platform. "We're thrilled to work with DraftKings to amplify the sports-fan experience, and extend the DraftKings footprint across our unique suite of services, including SLING TV and Boost Mobile, with potential applications across our 5G wireless buildout in the future," DISH TV Group President Brian Neylon. DISH shares have dropped 11.0% over the past three months, while DraftKings stock has rallied 37.0% and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.68% has advanced 5.6%.
TITAN - 5G - Lumen Tech. $LUMN - The 4th Industrial RevolutionI am ultra bullish on Smart cities, AI, edge computing, 5G/6G telecommunications, cybersecurity and AR/VR. Lumen Technologies (CenturyLink) seems to be a sleeping giant that checks all those boxes. Lumen is facing a similar situation as Nokia and Blackberry as value company which is about to enter a second growth cycle, and like Palantir Technologies, it is facing a situation of massive short selling pressure during institutional accumulation. The ruthless manipulation after earnings beat signals to me how bullish institutions are on the company, and the overwhelming (unreasonable) bear sentiment signals that the shakeout is upon us.
FA:
Highlights: "Lumen Technologies is the only company to win Frost & Sullivan's prestigious 2021 Global New Product Innovation Award".
Who are they?
- "Lumen brings together the talent, experience, infrastructure and capabilities of CenturyLink, Level 3 and 25+ other technology companies to create a new kind of company—one designed specifically to address the dynamic data and application needs of the 4th Industrial Revolution." - Company website.
- Already is the global leader for fiber network. Lumen has the largest ultra-low-loss fiber network in North America with 3.5 million miles of high-capacity.
- Owns the world’s most-connected CDN (Content Delivery Network).
What do they do?
- "Lumen is an enterprise technology platform that enables companies to capitalize on emerging applications and power the 4th Industrial Revolution". They are focused on the 5G/6G sector, which I speculate will see explosive growth soon.
- "We integrate network assets, cloud connectivity, security solutions and voice and collaboration tools into one platform that enables businesses to leverage their data and adopt next-generation technologies."
- Focused rebranding for edge computing solutions and 5G sector.
- Lumen has partnered with VMware to develop cybersecurity software: Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) Mitigation, Web Application Firewall (WAF), Bot Risk Management (BRM).
- Black Lotus Labs is their threat research arm, the world’s most deeply peered networks and industry-leading endpoint protection and datacenter virtualization.
Key Products:
- Premises Edge: Tactile Internet, Virtual reality, Augmented reality.
- Metro Edge: Smart manufacturing, Video analytics, POS transactions, Retail robotics, IoT.
- Cloud Core: AI/ML platforms, Big data analytics, Disaster recovery, SaaS, Cloud storage, Hyperscale environments.
Clients:
- Salesforce, Zoom are big customers already.
Financial Performance:
- Growth & Trend shows they are almost profitable: Reported a Net Loss of $1.232 billion for the full year 2020, compared to a Net Loss of $5.269 billion for the full year 2019. Excluding Integration and Transformation Costs and Special Items, reported Net Income was $1.801 billion for the full year 2020 compared to $1.409 billion for the full year 2019. The trend is positive.
- Cash Flow Positive.
- Invested Capital and Total Assets are decreasing, yet total liabilities and debt decreasing, while CapEx is increasing.
- Reduced Net Debt by approximately $1.6 billion and reduced leverage to 3.6x Net-Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA.
- For 2021, Lumen has debt obligations of $2.4 Bn still.
- However, Lumen had $34.1 Bn of debt in 2020.
- LUMN finished the year with $2.9 billion in free cash flow and a requirement of $1.1 billion to meet its dividend obligation.
- Insiders & Insider Trading: -0.92%
- Institutional Ownership: 79%
- About 659 funds hold LUMN, and interestingly enough, while the stock price dumped, Average 13F Ranking has been steadily increasing. This aligns with the Accumulation Distribution model that I presented.
- Float: 976.12M.
- Short % of Float: 7.51%.
- Valuation: 0.97 P/B ratio and 0.64 P/S ratio. Undervalued, by traditional valuations.
- Financial Reporting: Solid.
- Potential:
5G Market:
Market size value in 2020: USD 41.48 Billion
Revenue forecast in 2027: USD 664 Billion
"The global 5G Applications and Services Market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% from 2019 to 2027"
(According to 180+ page research report by Fidelity National Financial)
- Lumen Technologies should benefit from the growth of the 5G market, so we can expect 25.8% CAGR in revenue from their market share of 5G, and factor in growing market dominance.
TA:
- Accumulation/Distribution Phases are rather difficult to predict with Elliot Wave Theory, so Dow Theory will be used instead.
- Expecting 600%+ move up on breakout.
- MACD long term analysis:
- Short term outlook: Fib support level, with a big whale buy. Looks ready to move up.
- MACD short term bullish divergence:
- Stoch RSI indicating possibly one more shakeout:
- Historical analysis showing this is likely, if the same whale is in charge:
- However, Fib levels indicate that it cannot possibly go much lower!
QA:
- Interestingly, it would take 5.7 days for shorts to fully cover. It is likely the shorting was used to take the price down from the previous distribution level. Great short squeeze potential.
- Naked short selling report collected from FINRA shows that naked short volume was massive in the end of Jan. Most likely to suppress the price at the resistance point. Institutions were not positioned for the breakout yet.
- Options flow does not present high gamma squeeze potential, however, the low OI presents a very good long entry.
VERDICT:
- The company is reducing debt and leverage. This is smart, as there is sentiment that a market correction and stagflation is nearing.
- The critical point that investors will need to decide on is if the company can survive such conditions with their remaining debt. At this point, it looks like their debt will soon be eliminated, and they will be profitable.
- It is my speculation that in the case of a tech correction, and a rotation into value, tech will still thrive, but it is companies like these - non-speculative, but necessary, will be real winners. A lot of retail excess will be trimmed from unreasonably valued companies. At least some Institutional investors seem to share this sentiment, judging from their accumulation.
- This company checks many boxes for me, and looks ready for an explosive move up, so I assign it an S-tier rating.
STRATEGY:
- Accumulate.
- Entry levels: 7.50, 4.00.
- Trigger for Long: breakout of falling wedge resistance.
- Wave 3 PT: 80.00.
- Wave 5 PT: 130.00.
I think the Impulse wave 3 target of 80 aligns with the MACD signaling a 600% move-up to come. This is a high probability level.
This would put the company's valuation at 86B~, which is not unreasonable, and even still would be undervalued, in my opinion.
GL, and if you like the content, give a like, leave a comment, and follow!
P.S. Trying to take a more succinct presentation model for DD, based on constructive criticism I have been receiving.