618
EURNZD - Time For a Tumble We've seen a decline in the Euro since early January rejecting the weekly key level and breaking the monthly key seen at the 1.66250 price region.
The Euro has seen a lot of pressure with fundamentals, Mario Draghi speeches and certain rates being held till the end of 2019.
EURNZD has seen a nice clean break and retest of the counter trend line and pinged off the 61.8 Fibonacci level. This should give us a nice push to the downside with my first take profit around the minor support seen in pink on the chart, which lies around the 1.64250 psychological price region. We can also expect a bit of consolidation as we sit in a zone where we've seen multiple wick rejections and the may be building up a large amount of liquidity before the market can see a tumble.
As always, trade with correct risk management and lot sizes suitable to your account and have a great day! More articles on the way later today.
Instagram: keownarcher
AUDUSD - Potential short coming into play. So after the flash crash seen on the 3rd of January, seeing the Japanese Yen soaring, we saw price recover back above the 0.69750 psychological price region. A higher high was created followed by a higher low as anticipated. A higher high is created around the 0.73000 region, seeing a 2nd touch of the descending trend line, followed by a lower low and lower high as expected. This created the classic head and shoulder pattern and we saw price price tumble from the 0.72000 region to the 0.70055 region, creating a new lower low.
With that being said, a lower high should be anticipated to follow the downtrend. We breached the 0.70250 monthly key, however we were unable to close below it with enough bearish momentum. Price looks short term bullish for now looking at the daily and 4HR time frame. Today looks indecisive as where price wants to move, however we re sitting on the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This may give us a better buy entry for INTRADAY traders seeing 0.70250 met once again before moving towards the 61.8% which is my favoured entry to go SHORT. The 61.8% accompanied with the 3rd touch of the descending trend line as well as creating a double top formation seen with the 28th of February candlestick. This zone shown hi lighted is also seen as clear resistance/support in the past. Downside targets will be around the 0.69000 price region.
However, if this trend line is not respected, my bias will change to long with a break and retest of the trend line. This short analysis will then be invalidated.
Long term I do see AU rising, however for now, my bias remains short.
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions, head over to my instagram : keownarcher
USDCAD (W,X,Y) Corrective Pattern Going long into a short.I was able to spot a W,X,Y pattern early on USD/CAD, Right now it's finishing off the (b) correction on the (X) wave. Im hoping for it to retrace to the .618 as I find the X wave to commonly retraces to that spot. After the X wave is complete, I'm hoping for the Y wave to finish up on the major trend line holding as support starting from September 2017. The Y wave retracing to the trend line also fits in with the fact that it is the same length as the W wave.
This would also align with the movement of Eur/Cad. If you look at the analysis I posted for eur/cad right now its a ahead of usd/cad in terms of pattern but it has the same movements. Meaning that Eur/cad is finishing the A correction on the X wave, when it moves up the the B correction, USD/cad will be moving up to finish the X wave.
USDJPY:Short at the 0.618RETThe market is testing the 0.618RET of previous drop in the weekly chart.
Meanwhile the neckline of previous top also works at this zone.
So it is good to sell at 115.5 levels when price action gives the signal in the PRZ.
SL:above 117.4
TP1:110
TP2:105 and further more
If the market break out this level,121 level will be seen in the future.
EUR/CAD (W,X,Y) Elliott Corrective PatternI was able to spot a few key rules for why this might play out the way it shows. Starting from the high on March 2018 we can begin to line up our WXY pattern. Within that WXY Corrective waves, you can find the ABC correctives. I'll leave you to interpret how you see those but I left them out to make the chart look cleaner.
- If you look at Fibonacci drawn from the High in March 2018 (0) to the Low in August 2018 (W) you can see that (X) has retraced to the .618. (You will have to place this fibs on your own as well. I have left it out to keep the chart clean.)
- Using the Fibs Extension from (0) to (W) to (X) you can hope that price will hit the .618 retracement and that will complete the (A) wave for the (Y) correction.
- The (Y) wave would be finished up at the purple resistance line. This is a resistance that has been tested for 2 decades. I've also used the distance measured from the first (0) to (W) wave to measure the (Y) wave.
PS: I'm still very new to this so I know my terminology or TA might be wonky but I hope I get some constructive criticism as in confirming my analysis or showing me a way in which I'm wrong.
AudJpy Short IdeaFairly simple setup. Fully reversed bullish trend breaking past former higher lows. Pullback to 61.8% in alignment with psychological number 79.00. I suspect this correction is over and the 61.8% fib a valid level to take our shorts. Tp1 @ 76.80 Tp2@ monthly support in alignment with -0.61% fib extension at 76.00. Lets go.
Eur/Aud Long IdeaWe recently witnessed a massive daily bullish engulfing candlestick rejecting monthly support 1.5800 and fully reversing out of its bearish trend (as price broke past the last lower high of the bearish trend. We have now had a nice correction for what would be another nice bullish leg to the upside to create a new higher high at our -0.27 fibonacci extension target which is in nice alignment with our next lower high to be taken out in and around the 1.6150 region. Entry at our 61.8 fib retracement which is in nice alignment with key dynamic and static support. Let's get it.
GBPAUD Long IdeaLooking for an equal size impulse to fulfill D leg in and around the highs at 1.8700. Buying at 61.8% fib level around 1.8050 psychological number. Shooting for over 600 pips so give her room to breathe -- we know how erratic this cross can be. Let's catch some pips!
cad/chf short set up long term goalon the cad/chf I have seen potential short set up which is also in line with the fib retracement of 0.618 from the highest point of the downward channel.
daily/4hr will be shown as well.
gbp/nzd bullish set up.on the 4hr chart I noticed a really nicely formed head and shoulders pattern come up which than turned into a newly formed support zone inline with the fib retracement of 0.618 so I can safely assume price will hold this support zone and go straight up.
eur/aud bullish set upOn the eur/aud, I see bullish momentum followed up by retracement levels between 0.5 and 0.618 which indicates great pullback. Price seems to respect the support zone and does retest it as well so I'm hoping for a clean retest with the price moving higher.
aud/jpy short set upOn the aud/jpy short set up, I see a potential bearish reversal.
Price seems to be in contact with the resistance zone several times so I'm going to go ahead and suggest price will be driven lower hopefully towards the newly formed lower low.
Fib shows 0.382/0.618 retracement depending if you've used the lower low body or wick. Delving into the lower timeframes, price has yet again touched the resistance zone forming a double top which should ALSO lead to a triple top if price decides to drop lower than the resistance zone.
All this will be shown through pictures of the 4hr/1hr timeframe.
NZDUSD Kiwi 2618 Trade on Radarkiwi formed a double top at an interesting price level where it met the decending trandline and historical lstructure (look left) pkus finished an common upmove extention
(boxed area).
now formed new low and is retracing maybe to the 618 so you can tarde it as a 2618 trade with stopploss above the doubletop.
use piice action to find entry and confirmation (or other way round haha)
trade with care and fun!
Eur/ZarRejecting the .618 retrace and 100 and 800MA's on daily. Looking for more downside on Ezar to break the trend line, but I am expecting an "X" wave (flat like correction) to occur, may be from here.
GBPUSD SHORT61.8 to the downside
target 1 hit
now looking for a retest of yesterdays low
for a continuation to the downside
yellow lines are my 3 targets
AUDUSD - Retracement to Ranging to Lower HighThe dollar has been weakening on retracement which has also caused AUDUSD to progress higher in the form of a major retracement.
That retracement went into a range between 0.7100 and 0.7150 for about a week.
And finally, as of yesterday, the first lower high of the month is created as price started to break away from the range.
This is largely caused by a strengthening dollar and it is very likely for the dollar to strengthen for a third consecutive day base on technical factors.
Most importantly, shorting the AUDUSD near the 0.7130 region allows a tighter stop loss and more space for profit.
Sell NZDCHFTrend continuation. I believe the bullish pullback is over and the long term downtrend should resume shortly. We are currently sitting at the golden Fibonacci ratio and the price is located towards the top of the pullback channel. We can see price testing the top of the channel more than 4 times indicating the buyers are getting exhausted and sellers are very likely to take over.
The fundamentals are also aligned with our technical view of this pair:
The most recent economic release with the greatest impact for NZD was the NZ Quartely CPI, which took place on January 24, 2018 at 9:45pm GMT. The Deviation for the NZ Quartely CPI is 0.3% and the Forecast at the time was 0.4%. The actual figure came in at 0.1%, which was a negative surprise for NZD
The franc also trades as a more stable alternative to the dollar, euro or British pound in times of turbulence and uncertainty. While there are really not enough francs in circulation to use it as an alternative to these currencies, traders and speculators nevertheless seem to prefer the franc when conditions get dicey in other economies. With all the uncertainty with the euro and pound recently with the pound and euro I am expecting volume to increase in the swiss franc which might push the currency higher.
Ride the 3rd push down to the 0.0A major area of resistance a the 61.8 with a perfect engulfing pattern made on the day.
If you look on the higher time frames youll clearly see its on a down trend, and as everyone knows,
"THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND" SL right about the Resistance area and TP and the 0.0.
Eur/Zar Potential Complex "B" waveIf you did not already get the first sell level I posted, or if you are in it... Watch out for an ending diagonal which would measure out perfectly to the 1.236 extension. From there, we may get a head and shoulders or flat type structure which could then turn into a WXY structure for a complex "B" wave. I suggest you watch the short video I posted on my channel. Link below. I do see some nice downside coming but that doesn't mean we can't get something to double top or break the high, but I see the sell as the next move.
XAU/USD- Potential setupIf you are not already in the Gold buy, see if it does a 7 swing. If it were to go down exactly as I have drawn, then that is a pattern and fib area to look to buy in the zone. It can just go up from here, but it is very risky to just enter right there. You should probably already be in it if you saw my past analysis.
NZDJPY Head And Shoulders and Fibonacci 61.80% RetracementNZDJPY Head And Shoulders and Fibonacci 61.80% Retracement
