Bitcoin: BTCUST Big .618 Fibo: still bearish Bitcoin BTCUSD
Apologies for leaving Bitcoin unattended yesterday, busy with other business. It was left 'positive whilst above 15485'.
Well that didn't last long. This level was lost to bears early in
London yesterday and the subsequent rally took BTC all the way back to up to the 15485 blue line precisely - before
falling away again by 1800 points. It was strong above this line and weak below it...but why so weak? Readers will know that
usually not much heed is paid to Fibonacci levels - they tend to work sometimes in FX markets - and for every .618 that can
be produced, there are 12 more that can't - so they do occur, but as a trading tool they are not much use to us, about 90%
of the time. But for once it just could be that Fibonacci has revealed a bigger, more frightening pattern hiding in the
noise...Bitcoin is a currency after all. If you were looking for one last 'hurrah', one last 'suckers' rally' it would to sell the
.618 retracement of the entire decline from the high just under 20,000 to the low just above 11,000 (on Bitstamp feed).
And guess where that .618 would take Bitcoin up to before the real real decline then sets in ? That would be 16394 for
the next rally high...followed by the REAL decline and fall.
Bitcoin in fact made a high in China the night before last at 16476, just 29 points above the blue line and next upside
target at 16447 - it fell 2000 points over the next 11 hours before rallying 1000 (exactly 50% of the previous decline) to
15485 key level for the day and reached at midnight GMT (10 hours ago now) before falling away again by another 1800
points. So Bitcoin continues to behave technically by the book. But this is bad side of Bitcoin we're seeing now, not the
good. And that big Fibo says it's not over yet. We are not looking to buy again yet until the dust settles, and that won't
be soon by look of chart at moment.
This little rally from usual 5-6am GMT lows is not to be trusted. We look to short it from higher up...(or keep all
powder dry until we see a proper bottom defined further out in time, which we will try to get close to when it comes).
It can rally to 14539 and perhaps push into the next line of resistance above here, at 14648-14700 but not much higher
(for sure 15485, which was support yesterday, is now resistance and is unlikely to be breached until the downside
has been tested first now. Can also sling a support line under the lows of the day so far to give a short signal - look to short
once broken..should test the underside of this trend line once broken lower and recoil down again...can short then with
stops above the line by at least 50 points . Otherwise we stay on the sidelines.. This is no place for brave buys. We wait.
Bitcoin is getting interesting, buyt for all the wrong reasons now. But soon this will present an opportunity. For most then,
powder dry. We wait. Like ravens have to wait for the wolf to finish his dinner, so must we.
