ASIA: USDJPY - 618 LIMIT - ATR SLLets see if we get UJ right this time with the 618 limit setup and dollar showing some momentum at a very good level
618fib
Rally to .618 fib ($48,500 by July) then -72% before new ATH'sHi there!
In 2018 after the bull run the market had a rally to .618 fib level & took 7 months to pump from $3000 to $13,500, applying the same mathematics to the currently rally after the last bull run a pump to .618 fib level in 7 months would take us to $48,500 by July.
Then had a 72% dump before the 2020/2021 bull run, and if the same thing happened we’d top at $48,500 by July and dump 72% to $13,900 before the 2024/2025 run.
BTC's Downward Breakout May Trap BearsChart 1 : BTCUSD's Downward Breakout From Bear-Flag Channel
(Chart 1 also includes a hypothetical price path showing one probable way that price could retest the channel and the downward trendline that has held as resistance since November 2021.
BTC's Downward Breakout from Parallel Channel/b]
On August 19, 2022, BTC fell over -10%, breaking out below its upward sloping bear-flag channel. This parallel channel has contained price since the June 18, 2022, low at $17,592. The breakout below the channel was also decisive with a taller bearish candle that closed very near the low for the day.
As price has continued to rally, volume has dwindled. This represents lack of conviction in the rally when volume does not support each subsequent push higher.
Potential Retest of the Parallel Channel
In weighing the likelihood of a potential retest of the parallel channel that has defined this bear rally, consider the following points:
1. No one can say with certainty whether the bear rally is finished or whether the downtrend is complete. However, the bear rally may not be complete, and bears opening shorts on this breakout may be trapped in the coming days / weeks. Bull and bear traps have been a common occurrence in this bear market. Note that this is a short-term view only—the longer-term price action and trend structure remain quite bearish, and this author does not advocate a long investment strategy at this time in BTC .
2. Even though the macroeconomic environment remains poor with sticky inflation and tightening financial policy likely to continue in the intermediate term or long term, corrective rallies can push higher and longer than most expect. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Market research studies have shown that some of the strongest, sharpest rallies in equity markets have occurred during prolonged bear markets. Look no further than the recent rally: the macroeconomic picture has remained relatively unchanged, but equity indices and cryptocurrencies have rallied significantly in the past two months.
3. While the bear rally may constitute an upward correction within the downtrend, consider that the recent decline on August 19, 2022, may simply constitute a correction within a correction. Stated differently, today's decline may represent a retracement within an ongoing bear rally that has already pushed over 40% higher from June 2022 lows. And the ongoing bear rally is itself a larger-degree retracement within a ten-month downtrend.
4. Breakouts above / below trendlines or channels commonly lead to short-term reversals that (at a minimum) retest the breakout point. In this case, a retest of the channel would lead price to the $23,000 to $24,000 range. Like every common price pattern, whipsaws involving retests of breakout points do not always occur.
5. Currently, price has declined to just above the .618 retracement of its entire rally off the June 2022 low near $17,592. This .618 retracement level frequently holds as initial support or resistance when price corrects a recent price move. The zone between the .618 retracement and the .786 retracement should be watched carefully over the coming week. If it holds firmly as support, this could indicate that the decline is part of a correction within an ongoing larger bear rally off June 2022 lows. (Note that the .618 retracement can be important both during corrective rallies within uptrends and corrective bounces within downtrends.)
Supplementary Chart: BTC's Recent Decline May Pause or Reverse at the Zone between the .618 and .786 Retracement Levels
Potential Test of the Ten-Month Down Trendline
Corrective price patterns frequently work havoc on bears and bulls who want to see consistent trendlike price action in one direction or the other. Note that corrective patterns can be upward, as in the current bear rally within BTC's downtrend, or they can be downward, as the In the short term, price has chopped back and forth within the corrective parallel channel shown in Chart 1.
Further, corrections can unfold in complex combinations as Elliott Wave theory teaches. For BTC, the current bear rally is an upward correction. This upward correction And a two-month bear rally could be the first segment of a complex correction—alternatively, it could be the end of the corrective retracement.
The primary chart, Chart 1, shows in blue the major down trendline that has defined this downtrend in BTCUSD. This down trendline has contained price since early November 2021 may still be tagged in the coming days or weeks.
Important levels of support or resistance tend to act as a magnet for price when price approaches them. The retest of the parallel channel could in theory coincide with a test of the down trendline in early September 2022. If this happened, the test would occur at a price of approximately $23,500 to $24,000.
Finally, while many have concluded the final lows were made and others see this as a bear rally, this bear rally still constitutes an upward correction within a downtrend until the weight of the evidence proves otherwise . So this article posits that price could continue the upward correction (retracement) higher or sideways over the next few weeks, and that today's decline might be a downward correction within the corrective bear rally. And any rally may trap bulls with another sharp move lower. After all, markets in equities and crypto have continued to confound bears and bulls alike leaving market makers with bulging pockets full of profits.
NOTE: This article is intended to present a relatively objective view of BTC's current price action and key levels using technical analysis. The author has no open position at the time of publication (August 19-20, 2022) on BTCUSD or BTC-related investment products such as BTC futures , BTC ETFs (BITO) or BTC derivatives.
DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances.
CME:BTC1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
FTX:BITOUSD
SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD VANTAGE:SP500
🚨 ETH ENRTY (rangebound) - MAJOR MOVE IN 2 DAYSHELLO AGAIN TRADERS,
As predicted in my last two posts, it is taking a few attempts to definitively break through the DOWS THEORY level (50% retracement) of $3124 and leg up into .5/6.18 range and continue the upward trend. As mentioned previously, looking left on our chart we see the last time we were rangebound in this area following the MAY 2021 crash, it took us nearly 12 days to definitively leg up into the next range between $3124 & the $3428 (.618 fib retracement).
WELL, it has been 10 days that we have been attempting to break this overhead resistance and it is my strong belief that we are still in a bullish trend and should break through this overhead resistance in the next few days. The RSI is nearing oversold areas and the macro BITCOIN is still holding above $40k, which is the best indicator that we are still in a bullish range.
ENTRY: RIGHT NOW
First target: $3124
Second target: $3428
Third target: MOON
IF YOU AGREE, PLEASE LIKE AND FOLLOW FOR FUTURE POSTS AND IDEAS!!!
(THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
$SQ BLOCK weekly 0.618 bounce????? $SQ might have found its bottom need to confirm support in this area bears still in full control
looking for support at the 200ma which is also the .618 fib level if we lose 200ma next level of support is way down below $100 where the volume profile shows strong support in the $87 area
I expect $SQ (BLOCK) to start consolidating near the 200ma remember stocks like to SINK into support so could trade slightly below 200ma for a bit but not much lower IMO if sell momentum continues worse case is $87
How to profit 27% using just the 618 & tweezersIn forex trading, the Fibonacci sequence can also be applied to market behavior to find high-probability trading setups on a wide range of timeframes. Fibonacci retracement is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction. Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios. 0.0% is considered to be the start of the retracement, while 100.0% is a complete reversal to the original part of the move. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels
The following is a list of key Fibonacci retracement levels to look out for:
Retracement level: 38.2% Fast and aggressive pullback bounce.
Retracement level: 50% Medium pullback bounce.
Retracement level: 61.8% Golden Number pullback bounce.
Retracement level: 78.6% Stop-loss level to be placed, 10 PIPs.
Extension levels: -61.8% and -27% Target area for trend continuation.
23:42:21 (UTC)
Wed Jan 1, 2020
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Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, trade discussions, or other information contained on this website are educational in nature and merely provided as a presentation of trading strategies. Commentaries made on this website reflect our own opinions and trading techniques and do not constitute investment advice.
Power of Phi: We banked +37%!In forex trading, the Fibonacci sequence can also be applied to market behavior to find high-probability trading setups on a wide range of timeframes. Fibonacci retracement is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction. Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios. 0.0% is considered to be the start of the retracement, while 100.0% is a complete reversal to the original part of the move. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels
The following is a list of key Fibonacci retracement levels to look out for:
Retracement level: 38.2% Fast and aggressive pullback bounce.
Retracement level: 50% Medium pullback bounce.
Retracement level: 61.8% Golden Number pullback bounce.
Retracement level: 78.6% Stop-loss level to be placed, 10 PIPs.
Extension levels: -61.8% and -27% Target area for trend continuation.
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NZDUSD LONG 4HOUR TIME FRAME61.8% BEEN HIT AND HOLDING AS SUPPORT!!
LATEST 4H CANDLE STICK CLOSES AS A HAMMER I WOULD SUGGEST GOING LONG AS WE WOULD BE HAMMERING OUT THE BOTTOM FINDING NEW SUPPORT!!
Eur/Gbp had a perfect entry for shortI posted exact entry on this sell last night, just not on tradingview. You see the .618 fib level that it just found support at. That's the level I would like to see it break. I believe there is huge potential downside on this to break the low. Right now on 1 and 4hr it looks like it might pull up. It is right now. If you bought it (I'm not), you may get lucky and go up to break the high, but I'm looking for that next downside move. Hoping for a flag and a break of that level. We'll see. I marked the major levels to watch for you.
