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Volumes. Daytrading. Signals, trades and statements every day.Hey everybody. I am a Daytrader and I do effective market analysis based on price and volume. Yes, really effective and you will see that ;) I have a complex system of analysis, unlike that primitive volume analysis, which is described everywhere on the Internet. Not to mention other garbage analysis methods, like graphic, candlestick, technical, waves analysis and other crap. At the moment I am working with 6E (EUR/USD) and I will share with you the analysis and signals my system provides. Try the signals, enjoy the results and ask questions. Those signals that I will give here, I will work out myself and show the results directly on the charts at the end of the day. I will also periodically post the statement from the terminal. In fact, I'm already running my blog from the beginning of May. For starters I just wanted to try what it is like to trade publicly, publishing my analysis and all my trades every day. I started writing literally for myself and a couple of friends, and now that I'm more or less on the rails, I've decided that I'm going to start doing it for an audience. Decided that I would do a little recap at the end of each month. I started blogging on May 5th, so today I'm going to sum up May, and in the next post, like tomorrow, I'm going to do a post about June. I started by simply writing every day scenarios for the next day and giving recommendations for trades. I didn't open a separate account to trade on these recommendations until early June, so in today's post we'll only look at specific word-of-mouth recommendations and how my scenarios came to fruition. The next post, which will sum up the results of June, will show specific trades and statement from the trading terminal. By the way, I started with 30 euros on June 3, and so far I have 90 euros in my account. About 35 deals during this period, only 2 of which are in the small loss, almost break-even . IMPORTANT NOTE: there are a lot of traders who show their "successful" analytics and trading on the Internet, but in 99% of cases it is just a demonstration of some profitable deals/days, which happen to everyone with different frequency. Obviously, all this is worthless, because for one successful forecast and a profitable day there may be 5 losing trades. I, in turn, demonstrate my analytics and its results, as well as my trading absolutely every day. Thus, it is possible to get an objective picture of how effective it all is. And of course I show a complete report in the form of the statement from the terminal. For instance, I have missed only 1 day in May, I simply slept through it, but it was Friday and, as you can see from my Friday posts, I almost never trade on that day and do not give signals, so no big deal. Below I have given quotes from my posts, where I have registered my scenarios and recommendations, as well as the way they were implemented. Some days I have not given as an example, because on those days I either did not give clear recommendations (which I directly wrote about in the post for that day), or I gave some far-out levels for trading, which eventually were not achieved. You can see all the posts for each day without exception on my blog at any site you like. May 6. "As stated yesterday, there were rotations near the lower limit of the local balance." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 10. "But as I said on Thursday, the price is at the lower boundary of the local balance and it's not ready to move down at all. And said to pay attention to the fact that the volume of the previous day has moved down and the price is fixing above it, which tells evidently about the strength of the buyers and the intention to continue the local balance. As a result, Friday was very strong and confident and on the volume went up, implementing a passage to the upper boundary of the local balance." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 11. "Yesterday I wrote that we were at the upper boundary of the local balance (blue rectangle on the screenshot) and that the price would rotate on this boundary all day long. That's exactly what happened, there was a rotation that formed an intraday small balance, from the lower boundary of which I suggested buying (1.2130) in yesterday's post." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 12. "I'm sure you're just as pleased as I am to see the beautifully realized scenarios we predict every day. In yesterday's post, I wrote that price would continue to rotate within the intraday balance (blue rectangle). I also wrote that the limits of the balance will widen a little bit and it makes sense to sell from 1.2193. But it was a far and safe level for the short. And the closer level, which was also marked on the chart (gray level) was realized." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 13. "Right away I will draw your attention to how once again the market has accurately implemented our scenario. As I wrote yesterday, the selling factors intensified, which indicates a soon movement within the local balance down. As usual, I gave the safest levels for deals, and the price did not reach the short-side level just 5 points, but turned down from the overnight volumes of the previous day very nicely (black level on the first screenshot). ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 18. "Yesterday I wrote that the market was not ready to make an impulse yet and would trade within the boundaries of the intraday balance. I marked the balance with an orange rectangle. That's what happened." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 19 "Well guys, even though I got up late yesterday and we missed the main movement with you, the recommendations for the rest of the day worked out more than accurately. The price did turn around from the level indicated in yesterday's post, falling just a couple of pips short. Like I said, the price reached the thin support and reversed to 1.2233. I could not indicate the thin support at that time, because it was to be formed only in the future, when the price would move fully upwards. But even here, the defined gray level on the chart proved to be the thin support, from which the price reversed upward." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 20 "As I wrote in a previous post "the possibility of the impulse ending or at least pausing is also there, as we are at serious resistance levels." In the end, the resistance did indeed trigger, selling activity occurred. And as I said, if the level of 1.2247 will not be passed, we will buy from 1.2200 with the target of 1.2237. Note how accurately our target (the red level) was eventually worked out." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 25. "Yesterday I wrote, "Sell from 1.2205, if the price goes there right after the market opening in the next 5-6 hours with the target 1.2173 or with the target 1.2188 if completely safe." As a result, I was able to see how beautifully and accurately these levels worked out and the targets were set. However, it happened later than I wrote in the scenario, so unfortunately the signal was not implemented. However, the following scenario was executed, "If there is no selling volume at 1.2205 and the price will rise above 1.2188, you can buy to 1.2237". As a result, the price fixed above 1.2188 and really reached 1.2237, showing the strength of the buyers." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 26. "Of course we had considered that scenario, that's why I advised to buy from 1.2237 and from 1.2244, aiming for 1.2260. In the end both levels were bought and the price even went a little bit lower to 1.2228, which was also marked on the chart. However, the price reached the target only early this morning, so I understand you, for those, who were unsure and closed early at break-even or with small profit." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 27. "Yesterday I wrote that there would be no repositioning upwards and that the intraday balance would continue and the price would go towards its lower boundary to 1.2175 - 1.2160. As you can see on the chart, that's what happened." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 28 "I want to start right off by saying how great the levels that you and I mark on the chart work. It's a pleasure to work with them and observe this beauty. Yesterday I gave only sell signals. As a result, the sales happened exactly from the level I gave and beautifully reached their target (in yesterday's post: Sell from 1.2215 with a target of 1.2187)." ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** May 31 "As you may remember, on Friday I traditionally did not give any signals for the day, but I said that the price was likely to fall further and suggested to sell from 1.22, if the selling at the level occurred. As a result we got to 1.22 and the market went down rapidly and nicely. I did not give any signals, but the scenario worked perfectly. ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** Here is my current statements from the moment I made my account and deposited 30 euros. ***Screenshots in the reddit article by the link attached to this post*** I will make a post tomorrow morning with analysis and signals for tomorrow. Do not miss ;)
CME:6E1!
by market_hacker
Dollar, Gold and the Euro - where to next? I just read an idea posted in Tradingview that this is the time to buy the EURO. As well there is a lot of chatter about Gold being a gift at these levels. This big move started this week. I believe its too soon to take a position in either one of them. This is not to say there won't be backtests as investors rush in. Looking at these daily charts gives you the perspective to see what's really going on. So to be clear - the value of the US dollar (DXY) affects the EURO and GOLD - as the both are based on the relative strength of the DXY. This move isn't over - clearly the breakout is happening fast, it maybe over this upcoming week. However, that does not mean it return immediately to previous levels. Expect some accumulation and distribution. A higher US Dollar slows down: inflation, and debt ridden non-US companies with US Dollar denominated debt, who now have larger financial obligations. One thing that is VERY interesting is clear that all three, DXY, GOLD, and the EURO are balancing inside their respective triangles, for a much bigger move. If you have the answer to that - its worth a fortune. Why is this happening? The Federal Reserve has now signaled that there are at least two rate hikes forthcoming. While in Europe there is none of this talk, ergo higher rates - stronger currency. Last year there were numerous well respected pundits claiming the dollar was about to soar (such as Keith McCullough of Hedgeye and Raoul Pal of Real Vision fame) Pal wrote on Twitter April 25th, 2020: 'You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a viscous doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise' I can't believe he hasn't deleted this tweet. When in fact the absolute opposite happened. So tune out the noise and watch the charts for the 'Real Vision' ;) Expect the US Dollar to push through the what is an obvious trend line and bend it not break it approaching the round psychological number of 93. This is also close to 1.61 Fib at the top of the channel. The yellow triangle is where you might consider taking a long position in either the metals or pairs that verses the US dollar. Levels are indentified where both GOLD and the EURO may fall to. As a side note, the US Equites have rallied in part because of weakness in the US Dollar, which rallied at every drop in the dollar - they may have some catch up to do as the dollar is rising faster than SPX or NDX is dropping although the Russell and DOW seemed to be paying attention.
TVC:DXY
by Maximilianned
3
EUR at key 4h level ahead of GDP report EUR pulled back to 4h MA50. We are coming up on the Memorial Day holiday which will keep markets closed on Monday, May 31. That could bring some added volatility with traders readjusting positions ahead of the long weekend, as well as critical data coming up next week, including the May Employment Report. Fundamental analysis With 50% of the U.S. adult population now fully vaccinated and most states close to fully reopened, it seems reasonable to say we are entering the early stages of the post-pandemic era. One of the key themes that has driven bullish momentum in EUR during the pandemic is that we were headed toward a post-pandemic economic boom fueled by cheap and easy money, cheap energy costs, and a lot of available (aka cheap) labor that weakened USD. In reality, energy is kind of cheap-ish, but labor is not so readily available or cheap, and the "cheap and easy" money provided by the Federal Reserve may not last as long as some expected. In fact, money could get more expensive if inflation starts running even hotter and the Fed is forced to raise interest rates. The landscape is of course still evolving so the "trifecta" of cheap and easy energy, labor and money could still happen but investors are definitely reassessing, which is partially reflected in this long consolidation period that stock market has recently been stuck in. The labor market has been one of the biggest puzzlers and investors hope the May jobs report next Friday will provide more clarity. Many economists are dialing back their expectations for the labor market, including some Federal Reserve officials. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said this week that +500,000 jobs a month is a realistic expectation versus the +1 million some had been hoping for. Dallas's Robert Kaplan warned that a rate closer to last months gain of +266,000 could be repeated in May. Typically, a weak labor market would mean an accommodative Federal Reserve. Instead, that weakness along with numerous supply chain issues and materials shortages has been contributing to inflation pressures that some fear could be long-lasting. It's hard to overstate the extreme level of uncertainty this has created for investors. Technical analysis The 4h MA50 is the consolidation zone now. If the current range holds, the bulls will target new higher highs between 1.231 and 1.235. A lot depends on today’s data. I will not be surprised to see increased volatility. And if current support fails, bears will target 4h MA200. Ahead of the GDP report it makes perfect sense to reduce your exposure and trade after the market digests the news.
CME:6E1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
What is happening with the economy and what does it mean for EURCovid has largely taken a back seat on markets expected to be fully open this summer. The situation is not as bright in some other parts of the world but for now, investors don’t seem overly concerned. Most Western countries are on a similarly positive track as the U.S., but as we are learning, bringing the global economy back online is a lot more complicated than shutting it down. Fundamental analysis Getting both products and workers where they are needed continues to be a massive challenge and one of the results has been a wave of higher prices. The Federal Reserve expects these disruptions to start easing later this year. However, there are a few supply shortages that can’t be solved quickly and will likely linger into 2022, such as computer chips and lumber. Meaning the higher prices and shortages in those items can and is spilling over into other channels. The mere “perception” of inflation may be driving price spikes as well. Some economists have been pointing to commodity prices which they believe are partially roaring higher because investors are putting money into them as an inflation hedge and creating somewhat a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a pattern definitely seen in Treasuries this year with yields on the benchmark 10-year waxing and waning in step with inflation headlines. Likewise, the “perception” of a high inflationary environment along with a more hawkish Federal Reserve could also spur analysts to start slashing earnings expectations, in turn pushing more stock investors to the sidelines. Regional manufacturing indexes this week added to the inflation worries with the prices paid components in the Philadelphia survey hitting levels not seen since the 80s while New York’s hit all-time highs. At the same time, both surveys reflected a slowdown in manufacturing activity which is thought to be the result of supply chain bottlenecks. The declines were not due to a slowdown in demand as unfilled orders spiked in both regions. Data today includes Flash PMI for May and Existing Home Sales. Looking a little further out, key reports that inflation watchers have on their radar include April PCE Prices due out next Friday, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge. Also, the first week of June will bring ISM inflation gauges for both the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the May Employment Report. Technical analysis MA50 on the 4h chart held. The price action is neutral now. If price finally breaks the 1.225 resistance, bulls will target 1.2310 and 1.234 in extension. On the other hand, if the ma100 on the 4h chart breaks, look for the ma200 on 4h and daily ma50. The range between mentioned levels is no man's land and difficult to trade.
CME:6E1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
EUR Futures Are Pulling Back Ahead Of FOMC – What’s Next?Exploding consumer demand has helped usher in material and labor shortages that are not only driving up costs and fanning inflation worries, they are also reducing manufacturing output. Fundamental analysis That means fewer pieces, parts, and finished goods sold all the way through entire supply chains. Companies may be able to offset higher costs and lost sales through price hikes on some things, but bigger-ticket items like cars, appliances, and even houses will be more difficult to make up for in growth. Lost sales for the service industry really can’t be made up, so businesses like restaurants or hotels that are understaffed may not be able to fully capitalize on the reopening boom. The reopening is also bringing a shift in how consumers spend their money. Walmart, for instance, reported e-commerce sales growth of +37% for the first quarter, which was down from a +69% gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts are taking this and other reports of slower online sales as confirmation that the blistering growth witnessed during pandemic lockdowns is not sustainable. Investors have largely expected online shopping growth would moderate this year but are still trying to figure out what the “new normal” might be. Before the Covid-19 crisis, e-commerce sales were growing at about a +15% annual rate. Additionally, investors are unsure whether lower online sales will be offset by in-store sales growth. There is some expectation that more consumer spending will migrate to the services sector as travel, dining, and live entertainment all become options again. Hence, the still ongoing rotation out of some of the pandemic darlings and into sectors and companies that might have more growth potential as the economy reopens. FOMC “minutes” The economic highlight will be the “minutes” from the Federal Reserve’s April FOMC meeting. The bank last month left its extremely accommodative monetary policy unchanged, saying the U.S. economy still needed to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals. Keep in mind, one of those goals is “full employment” which the Fed has never really provided a hard number for. However, after March’s jobs report showed a surprisingly strong +916,000 gain, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did say he wanted to see a “string of months” showing the same strength. As we know, the April employment report only showed a gain of +266,000 new jobs. At the same time, there are growing concerns that the Fed is “behind the curve” in regard to inflation with higher prices now popping up all over the place. Analysts will be looking for hints in the minutes that Fed members may be shifting their stance a bit or perhaps getting more nervous about inflation. I should also note, there will likely be an unusually high level of scrutiny given to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index today. Technical analysis The EUR futures tested 1.2240 resistance which has been bulls’ swing target for some time. There is no surprise we see a pullback. It is advised to reduce exposure ahead of the FOMC meeting. The new direction will be clear once the market digests the FOMC statement. In general, failure to break the resistance mentioned above can bring the price down to ma50 and ma100 on the 4h chart. And if it finds support there, we can expect a new higher high near 1.23100
CME:6E1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
EURUSD - possible near end of wave 5Looking at the chart of the euro futures contracts we may spot a possible Elliott Wave Pattern labeled as 1 to 5. It is a potential impulse wave that may soon come to an end. The theoretical resistance for wave 5 is set by 161,8 Fibonacci expansion of wave 1 placed at the end of wave 4. If this area is defended the market may retrace back as potential wave A in a larger corrective movement. Then the first theoretical target may be located at the lower limit within the channel or even at the low of wave 4. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CME:6E1!
by Daniel_Kostecki
2
The Moment of Truth - US Dollar The Fed has the markets back - as seen in the equities market. Euro/Pound are screaming higher, because the news is better there - with that said Fed has been adding liquidity to the system but so has the ECB -$1.52 trillion in stimulus. Bond Market is saying hey equities no so fast - and to be clear the US Bond market is bigger! Interesting inflection point - this is the moment of truth, for US Dollar, equities, bonds and gold too. Grab you popcorn and enjoy the show. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXY
by Maximilianned
US Dollar (DXY) Breakdown - When does it happen? I have drawn this before on weekly basis - thought it would be a good idea to show it on more granular level using daily chart. This week the US Dollar (DXY) put in a double bottom matching the low of August 18th. This may be an inflection point. The Dollar Index absolutely could go lower to about 91.50 and still remain in this channel. This is where a 12 year tend line gets broken. Most retail buyers are short this market. __________________Long_________Short ______________Net Fund Managers_____270273 ______125396____________ 144877 Speculators _______43916________109948 ___________ -66032 Source Bloomberg 8-28-2020
TVC:DXY
by Maximilianned
Speculators’ net short U.S. dollar The move is in - easier to go long at this point than try to short the US Dollar or by proxy every other currency pair featuring the USD. At worse you know where to put your stops. After today's move away from the precipice the decades long trendline continues to hold. TVC:DXY The mainstream media in this case Reuters has been reporting this for months. This record short position is the fuel longs need to take the USD higher. If the US Dollar does move higher expect Silver and Gold to come off. For now if you're looking to go short - I would let the trendline break before entering. NEW YORK (Reuters) - Speculators’ net short U.S. dollar positioning soared to the highest since August 2011, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net short dollar position hit $24.27 billion in the week ended July 28, from net shorts of $18.81 billion the previous week. Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss July 31, 2020 / 4:23 PM
TVC:DXYLong
by Maximilianned
Weekly EUR forecast. Explained. Potential entriesEUR Futures are still consolidating. Last week the Department of Labor gave instructions on how to implement the executive order that partially extends federal unemployment benefits signed by President Donald Trump. But it was not enough to get a dollar out of consolidation. Fundamentally, nothing changed for both currencies. EUR has clear support and resistance levels. To avoid higher risks, it makes perfect sense to trade breakout of the range: potential longs above 1.1920 potential shorts below 1.1690 We previously discussed EUR set up for a decline. Based on COT reports commercials are selling currency. It usually indicates the market is topping. Besides, seasonal indicator points move down. The evaluation model shows EUR is overvalued. With that in mind, we prefer to look for and take sell signals. But price action is “the king” and we will follow it whatever side it breaks. Just use proven entry techniques to open a trade and don’t rush.
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
2
Coming sell in EUR. Explained Early this week the market can test 1.1630 and later bounce for a few days to form a signal for sellers. There is no need to hurry and pick up a trade now. Let the market do its thing and form some pattern to get clear entry with a good risk/reward ratio. The main reason for potential weakness is the bullish setup in DXY. I made a post about it. Below you can see a summary of DXY analysis We have discussed previously a potential rally in the American dollar. Now we are getting really close to the potential entry. However, accumulation is weak. That means it will take another week or two to get a signal. Accumulation builds momentum. That’s why it is so important. We have very strong fundamental setup for DXY rally: COT – commercials are heavily long Evaluation model – the dollar is undervalued COTSI Index – very high Intermarket forecast – upside. We need a technical signal to confirm the coming rally. It always takes some time to get one once we have a fundamental setup. So, likely we will see a bit more of a rally coming in a few sessions, followed by a pullback. It will give the dollar enough time to build momentum and form a signal to go long.
CME:6E1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
EURO WILL PROBABLY BREAK THE HISTORICAL RESISTANCESWe notice that the EURO on its monthly chart is bullish and is trying to break the historical resistances. The Bulls are determined as we can see a big green monthly candle approaching the intersection of the resistances. There is a high probability for the EURO to break the resistances, probably come back to make a pullback on it and go higher to reach the historical peaks. I recommend to buy EURO ONLY AFTER BREAKING THE RESISTANCES.
CME:6E1!Long
by AnyChart