EUR/USD Faces Renewed Pressure as USD StrengthensThe EUR/USD pair has recently faced renewed downward pressure after reaching year-to-date (YTD) peaks beyond the 1.1200 level. This shift in momentum comes amid a resurgence in buying interest for the US Dollar (USD), which has dampened the pair's ability to sustain its upward trajectory.
Several factors have contributed to the recent rebound in the US Dollar. Mixed data from advanced Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) in the euro area have weighed against the continuation of the EUR/USD pair's march northward. This economic data suggested that the eurozone's recovery may not be as robust as previously anticipated, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the EUR. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently released its Accounts, revealing that policymakers saw no immediate need to lower interest rates last month. However, they warned that a new discussion on the matter could take place in September as high rates continue to impact economic growth in the region.
From a technical perspective, the Euro has reached a strong supply area, as indicated by the EUR futures chart. This zone has acted as a significant barrier to further gains, and the pair’s inability to break above this level suggests the presence of substantial selling pressure. You can observe this technical resistance in the EUR futures chart on TradingView
EUR Futures Chart
Should the price manage to break through this supply zone, the next potential area for a reversal could be around the 1.3800 mark. However, this is contingent on several factors, including the broader economic landscape and the relative strength of the US Dollar.
Looking ahead, the US economy is expected to outperform Europe in the long term, suggesting that any prolonged weakness in the Dollar might be temporary. The stronger economic fundamentals in the US, coupled with potential policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve, could provide additional support for the USD, thereby exerting further pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair has shown some bullish tendencies in recent weeks, the combination of mixed economic data, technical resistance, and the potential for a stronger US Dollar suggests that the path forward could be challenging. Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming economic releases and central bank communications for further clues on the pair's direction.
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6e1
Fundamentally Setup Markets For This WeekI have identified the following markets are "set-up" for moves of some significance.
This video goes into the fundamental reasons for these trade ideas.
NOTE: I am not looking to go long/short these markets immediately. I will wait for a change in trend on the Daily to get involved with these markets. The tools used to identify these trade setups are not timing tools. The tools do give us an idea of how market participants with significant size and intelligence (commercials) are positioning themselves. The tools also give us an idea of sentiment, valuation, seasonality, and also an idea of what the (usually wrong) public/small traders are doing.
LONGS:
HEATING OIL (HO)
GASOLINE (RBOB)
MEXICAN PESO (6M)
SOYBEANS (ZS)
COTTON (CT)
SUGAR (SB)
SHORTS:
EURO CURRENY (6E)
JAPANESE YEN (6J)
SWISS FRANC (6S)
GOLD (GC)
30 YEAR TREASURIES (ZB)
Good Luck & Good Trading.
Shorting EUR/USD Amid Market SpeculationsWe are taking a strategic short position on the EUR/USD pair. The major currency pair has experienced strong gains recently, primarily driven by the US Dollar (USD) being under pressure due to firm market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates in September.
Despite this bullish momentum, the EUR/USD pair seems to be approaching a resistance level that could trigger a reversal. This anticipated reversal aligns with our identified Supply area and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. These technical indicators suggest that the pair is poised for a potential downturn.
Additionally, our analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, focusing on non-commercial speculators, supports this outlook. The data indicates a possible shift in market sentiment that could favor a bearish move. Coupled with our seasonal forecast, which also points towards a downturn, the confluence of these factors strengthens our case for shorting the EUR/USD pair.
In summary, the combination of technical resistance, COT data, and seasonal trends presents a compelling case for a short position on the EUR/USD. We are confident that the alignment of these factors provides a robust foundation for our trading strategy, anticipating a reversal from the current levels.
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EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 10.06.2024 - 14.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 3 - 7.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 27 - 31.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 20 - 24.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
EUR Futures Look Bullish - Target 1.09095I'm bullish on EUR until 1.09095 is reached (high of the previous 2W candle).
Currently intermediate timeframe (h8) is delivering bearish (closing below lows of up close candles). In this scenario, I look for entries when price trades into H8 fractal swing lows.
If we see a bullish CISD on entry timeframe (M30) after sweeping an H8 low, I'll take a long. Alternatively, if h8 has a bullish cisd, I will look for entry timeframe triggers on pullbacks into bullish arrays.
EURO (EURUSD, 6EM2024)... BULLISH!Bias is Bullish.
Price traded through bearish
PD Arrays, respecting bullish
ones.
Currently, price is in a +FVG,
hence the bullish bias.
Price is very close to the DOL,
a swing high. Price may tap the
+FVG more than once before
heading higher.
Expectations are for the DOL to
be swept next week, as price
grinds upward.
Thank you for viewing!
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
May profits be upon you.
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024We continue the experiment with a wider range of zones. Let's see if we can guess the places to search for deals for the week ahead.
Last week in the related ideas at the bottom of the post.
During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a trade is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. The next morning I adjust the levels based on the new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from CME. Used as areas of interest for trade. When approaching a level, a “reaction” is expected, which can be traded for both a rebound and a breakout. The worst option is if we revolve around the level in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to enter into a continuation of the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don’t forget to like Rocket, Comments and Subscribe!!!
EUR/USD Outlook: Interplay of Technical and Fundamental FactorsThe EUR/USD pair benefited from modest selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and concluded Monday's session in positive territory. Recent days have witnessed a notable selling pressure with low volume observed in both the cross and the future of the EUR.
Later in the session, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will unveil the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April. Market expectations are poised for a 0.3% monthly increase in PPI, following a 0.2% uptick in March. A stronger-than-anticipated rise in monthly PPI could bolster the USD, potentially prompting a downturn in EUR/USD. Conversely, a softer-than-expected PPI print leading up to Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data might fuel a risk rally, weakening the USD and facilitating EUR/USD's upward momentum.
From a technical standpoint, analysis reveals a negative delta in the footprint, suggesting potential targets in areas of price imbalance. This indicates a possibility for the price to decline to fill the void in transaction volumes.
EURO FX Futures
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 6 - 10.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a trade is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. The next morning I adjust the levels based on the new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from CME. Used as areas of interest for trade. When approaching a level, a “reaction” is expected, which can be traded for both a rebound and a breakout. The worst option is if we revolve around the level in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to enter into a continuation of the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don’t forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!!
EUR (6E1!, EURUSD) Taking a BEARISH TurnLooking for an Internal to External move this week.
From the Weekly -FVG to the low at 1.06285.
The early part of the week may see price head up to sweep LQ before turning over and dropping.
* Should the 4H show a bearish break of structure with a strong close, it may provide an early signal that the retracement has ended and sells should be sought.
LIKE, COMMENT or SUBSCRIBE if you like and want to see more analysis.
Thank you for viewing!
EURUSD LONG BUY - 6E - EURO FUTURESSoooo I've been playing around with mapping out the Elliot Wave Theory, and it looks like we're gearing up for a bullish reversal with Wave 5 shaping up. Based on how things are moving, we could see the price dip a bit more to 1.07574 sometime next week. There's a good chance we'll see the 'power of 3' in action, along with some side-stepping as the market consolidates and the big players possibly tweaking things for one more push to gather up extra liquidity before they go for the final spread. We'll just have to hang tight and watch how it unfolds. I'm thinking of taking my profits at 1.10.
****This is all just me thinking out loud about my trading strategy and does not constitute as financial advice.. ****
****Remember, always play it safe with your trades with proper risk management!****
If you've got a different take on this or some insights of your own, I'd love to hear them in the comments. It's always cool to get different perspectives on the market. Let's chat!
EURUSD 6E LongToday EU had a fairly strong daily close. Also, DXY rejected from some key daily levels.
My Daily DOL is Monday's high.
We also saw SMT divergence at the lows (EU failing to make lower lows while DXY made higher highs).
I want to see the H1 discount bullish arrays respected, to then look for a bullish displacement entry trigger on M5/M15.
EURUSD 6E Long-Price failed to close below 50% of the Daily RDRB price range.
-Price failed to close below Tuesdays low, as well as failing to close below several other previous daily lows.
-Daily DOL is Wednesdays high.
-I need to see H4/H1 discount arrays being respected to then look for bullish displacement entry triggers on M15/M5
Euro to propel on relapsing EU inflation & US jobs dataFighting inflation is hard. Hence, central banks are data dependent while calibrating rates. Continuing geopolitical conflicts puts Europe at risk of inflation relapse.
Headline numbers can be misleading. Central bankers will dig deep. Deeper analysis will compel investors and policy makers to rethink and recalibrate interest rate calculus.
This paper unpacks US jobs & Euro area inflation report, and market expectations of rates ahead.
UNPACKING US NON-FARM PAYROLL DATA
The US labour market added 216k jobs in December 2023 surpassing expectations. It was up 25% month-on-month.
Headline numbers look healthy. Details spell trouble. Payroll data was revised lower by 71k for October and November. Average work week contracted, and participation rate declined.
Jobs growth is concentrated in three sectors, namely, Government, Education/healthcare, and Leisure/Hospitality. Eighty percent of the jobs added are from sectors that are not considered growth engines.
Three key takeaways from jobs report:
1. Employment growth remains robust: Month-on-Month employment trends point to jobs growth in government, leisure and hospitality, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs.
On a 12-month seasonally adjusted basis, apart from (a) Transportation & Warehousing and (b) Information, rest of the sectors added jobs.
Source: BLS
2. Hourly Wage Earnings growth is strong: In December, average hourly earnings on private payrolls jumped by fifteen cents, or 0.4%, to USD 34.27/hour. Average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1% over the last year.
Source: BLS
3. Unemployment Remains Unchanged: Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% (3.5% last year this time) with number of unemployed persons unchanged at 6.3 million (5.7 million last year this time).
COMPREHENDING EUROZONE INFLATION NUMBERS
Euro area inflation rose 2.9% YoY in December 2023, reversing a two-year low (2.4%) observed in November. Eurostat inflation estimates was marginally below the market consensus of 3%. Inflation uptick since April 2023 was primarily due to energy-related base effects.
Energy prices declined 6.7% while services inflation was flat. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, softened to 3.4%. Core inflation is at its lowest point since March 2022.
MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF RATE CUTS
Investors are betting that the US Fed and the ECB will cut rates six times this year. First rate cut is expected in March or April.
Market expectations are in sharp contrast to policymakers. The US Fed expects to make three quarter-point cuts this year. The ECB has stood its ground arguing that the inflation fight is not over yet.
Amid strong economic data, probability of Fed rate cuts in March has fallen from 100% to 70%.
Source: CME Fedwatch Tool
EUR-USD WITNESSED WILD MOVES ON INFLATION, JOBS, AND SERVICES DATA BUT SETTLED WHERE IT OPENED
Last Friday news flow impacting FX rates were strong. Front month EUR-USD futures traded wildly opening at 1.0977 reaching a high of 1.1030 and then plunging to a low of 1.0908 before closing at 1.0977.
December US ISM Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.6, the lowest reading in seven months, compared to 52.7 in November. Services industry is critical accounting for more than two-thirds of the US economy.
Euro fell 0.5% last week, marking its largest weekly drop since early December breaking three consecutive weeks of strengthening.
The EUR-USD is hovering at its support levels with the 50d DMA likely to print a golden cross with the 200d DMA.
Near term technical signals point to strengthening of the Euro versus the US dollar. Momentum favours Euro while price reversion risk remains neutral.
Diverging macroeconomic conditions leaves Eurozone exposed to higher risk of inflation relapse. The ECB is expected to be slower with rate cuts relative to the Fed. In anticipation, leveraged funds are starting to sharply reduce their net short positions in the CME EUR/USD futures.
Source: CME QuikStrike
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Europe is at greater risk of inflation relapse on continuing geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine and the middle east. Energy and goods inflation relapse will force the ECB to defer its rate cuts.
Size of the rate cuts, if any, is also likely to be smaller at the ECB relative to the Fed. This will strengthen the Euro against the USD in the near term.
To harvest gains from a strengthening Euro, this paper posits a hypothetical long position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures expiring in March 2024 (M6EH2024) with an entry at 1.0979 combined with a target at 1.1123 and hedged by a stop at 1.0871, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.33x.
Each lot of CME Micro Euro Futures contract provides exposure to 12,500 Euros. It is quoted in USD per Euro increment. Each pip i.e., 0.0001 per Euro delivers a P&L of USD 1.25.
• Entry: 1.0979
• Target: 1.1123
• Stop: 1.0871
• Profit at Target (hypothetical): USD 180 (= 0.0144; 144 pips; 144 x 1.25 = 180)
• Loss at Stop (hypothetical): USD 135 (= -0.0108; -108 pips; -108 x 1.25 = -135)
• Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.33x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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