6k
BTC - Bitcoin possible Inverse H/S formationLooking at the 4H chart, RSI hitting almost oversold + a good Inverse H/S happening.
(This is not financial advice, this is a volatile market where anything can happen)
BTC ... does RENKO confirm we still need to drop?Hello gang.
OK so here's the Renko on the daily.
If you've seen my previous ideas, you will notice I've been talking about a big triangle wave, along with some other people doing TA. These waves are bouncing in a big triangular formation ... 20k to 6k, 6k to 11.7k, 11.7k to 6.5k, 6.5k to 10k and now the final wave ... which has broken down below the triangle with a CURRENT bottom of 5.9k.
Each of these long waves from the top of the triangle to the bottom and vice-versa I have found are a complex correction wave ... a WXY pattern. The WXY is a (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system ... each bracket is (W)-(X)-(Y). So basically an (impulse-abc-impulse) for W, abc for X. and (impulse-abc-impulse) for Y. Sorry for going into detail, but this is really important to understand.
Again I want to stress ... I have counted this system in ALL the major waves in the triangle, and I expect this correction down from 10k to be NO different.
Turn to the Renko now ... start at the 9.99k top, and notice the red blocks are the impulse waves and the green blocks are the abc corrections. We have completed (impulse-abc-impulse)-(abc)-(impulse-abc- ...) and are working on that last impulse. Each of these red impulse waves are around 1300 to 1600 points long, average is around 1400 points. Applying that to this impulse, it takes BTC to 5350!
I've also done an elliott wave count on the normal candle chart ... and if I compare that to the impulse we had from 7700 down, once again, it says we should hit between 5350 and 5400. There is key support at 5350/5400 that should be taken into consideration as well.
At the moment we are in wave 4 ... and that can take us to 7250 to 73XX territory. Then I expect it to go down. Can't say when as this can now sideways for a few days ... but I do see one last collapse ... I'm hoping to see a nice V shaped bottom ... and yes it can go lower than 5.4k ... key support below that is 5k and 4.5k. I would be very surprised if we go lower than 4.5k without a significant correction first, or at least weeks/months of sideways and disinterest.
Is a bounce from here possible ... yes, sure ... but I'd say lower probability ... and the only logical reason I see for that is the mass public viewing the 5900 to 6000 level as HARD support ... given it's been tested a few times. Once again, this is a low probability scenario for me right now.
One last thing ... if we do bounce from 5.4k, I don't believe that is the absolute bottom. I see a few weeks of rallying, then another bear market. There is an important log trend line that needs to be touched to get us out of this mess ... it currently sits at around 3k ... it is rising as time progresses.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions with this info. For educational purposes only.
BTC ... is the plunge over?Hello All,
A quick update ... there are different possible interpretations when it comes to EW. The short summary ...
(1) did we have an ABC correction up from 7040 (black wave)?
(2) or did we have an ABCDE leading diagonal up from 7040 (purple wave)?
Thing is, selecting one or the other decides when the impulse down started ... and the projected bottom (in the short term), is very much dependent on that choice!
The purple wave suggests this is FAR from over ... and alts will be jumping off cliffs soon, as BTC goes to 5.4k or even lower. In this scenario I do expect a quick, massive wick down, as many longs liquidate ... then a proper recovery. I can't tell you where that ends ... I see possible stops at 5.4k, 5k, 4.4k, 4k .... all the way down to around 2.9k. Don't freak out though ... I really do expect this to be quick, so if you are protected by stops ...
The black wave suggests the correction is over (for now) ... and we go up from 7370, close to my original target of 7425 (see this idea ). This scenario then leads to a mediocre recovery, then another attempt to hit bottom, and I suspect that one would succeed. Again, I see this ending with that massive wick down, creating a V shaped bottom.
We will know soon enough. Watch volume especially, and alt action (are they really recovering in a healthy manner)? Those are clues, they always have been.
Please comment which way you think it will go ... BLACK WAVE or PURPLE WAVE
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions with this information ... for educational purposes only!
BTC ... what becometh of you? Here we are, what should I do?Hello everyone!
So here, we are ... BTC, tried to get to 8100 on an IHS (see chart). Stalled just over 7.7k territory.
Now what?
A few days ago, I posted an idea about a back test of the 7k bottom ... I also didn't like the fact that we didn't quite hit the rising 6 month trend line (now almost 9 months long!), which was sitting at 6.9k. So, I do think we are in the wave that will take us down to that trend line ... by the time we get there, it will be at around 6970 to 7000. Here's why:
- I've gone back and checked all the subwaves of the main drops (20k to 6k, up to 11.7k, down to 6.5k, up to 10k, and now down to ??).
- the sub waves are NOT likely ABC corrections ... they seem to be WXY corrections.
- an ABC correction is a 5-3-5 system (so check if we have that from 20k to 6k)??
- a WXY correction is a (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system ... which fits better for all the main drops and rises.
- for this correction I see a WXY pattern forming from 10k ... and we've done (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3 ...), so I think this is the final (5) .... which I've plotted in the gold line.
- note that I like showing alternatives on my chart ... there's one interpretation that shows we did complete the full 5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system down to 7k ... could be, but I say lower probability, particularly because we didn't touch the bottom of the triangle ... and we still have 2 days left until the close of the cycle on the 5th of each month ... (every reversal ended on 5th of each month, and the market flipped on the 6th from bull to bear, or vice-versa). Also, a back test of 7k bottom is confirmation ... much needed confirmation. So, we can get that now, with the trend line being so close to 7k.
But, if I'm wrong about my primary interpretation, then this is WAVE E, another WXY up to the top of the triangle ... and the next move needs to be up to minimum 8100, and real confirmation is really above 8300 .. it really does need to go there and not much lower than it is now. So, we should know by tomorrow.
In the meantime, I suggest it's going to drop further, and the targets are 7270, 7040, 6980, 6425, 6000, 5400, 4400 ... as we go down that chain of targets, the probability lowers ... but I do have the highest probability as somewhere between 6900 to 7100.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC ... how low will WAVE C go??From 10k, we are in wave C of an ABC correction (see purple line) ... heading to the lower line of the triangle .... completing cycle WAVE E (red line).
The ABC correction is comprised of a 5-3-5 sub wave system.
Renko diagrams support that we have completed wave A and B of the ABC taking us to the bottom of the triangle (see my previous idea).
It's possible that wave E extends past the bottom of the triangle, and there are three key support points, 6.425k, 6.00k and 5.45k. Plotting the impulse wave that makes up wave C gives clues to the bottom ... and 5.45k is possible.
I won't get into much more detail, for fear of confusing everyone ... but my main point is, I don't think this drop is anywhere near over, unless massive manipulation steps in. To invalidate the continued drop, we need to really go above 8100 points ... while dropping below 7200 will confirm the continuation of the correction. Those are the key levels to watch. Anything, in between is gambling, with the bias being to the downside.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this info for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC WAVE E ... consumed by fire, give rise to the Pheonix!Hello guys.
So here's an update on my idea ... some polishing up done, with the new data, but the concept still remains the same. For those looking for a summary only.
- we are likely forming wave E of a triangle pattern (see red wave)
- we are likely in an impulse wave, where wave 3 ends and wave 4 starts (see purple wave).
- the purple line is my highest probability, but the two black lines are other possibilities. So likely bottom is 6.9k (after a rise and then fall again), but 6.5k, 6k and 5.4k are also possibilities (the paths are shown in the black lines).
- overall I see after this bottom, a nice bull market ... and look forward to the second half of 2018!
OK so here is a more detailed explanation:
We hit 7270, and came within 380 points of the triangle bottom. Not much left to go. But it is clear, two things are happening ... likely it's mostly shorts closing their positions (buying back bitcoin), and perhaps a bit of FOMO starting (people jumping in long guessing it's the bottom).
The red wave E shown in my chart will likely be made up of an impulse wave (shown in purple). After reassessing the wave, I believe we are due for a wave 4 (UP) soon, before a final wave 5 down. That coincides with the bounces we are seeing (from 7270 to 7532 so far). But still not enough to convince me we are in wave 4 ... I look for breaking the current channel we are in, and the upper parallel is currently sitting in the 7600 territory (so I want to see it above that to confirm we are in a new wave up).
Wave 4 will obviously take us higher, and my rough estimate at this stage is 7800 - 8100, with the most likely target actually being the higher end of this range. I'll know better once we've cross 7600 to see how much steam the bulls have.
I strongly believe because we are only 380 points from the triangle bottom, the bears want to test that. If that's correct, a great play would be to short from the top of wave 4, and then close profits when the final wave 5 gets close to the triangle bottom, then look to long when wave 5 is close to finish (perhaps ladder in your buys at key levels). Wave E's (red wave) can extend past the triangle bottom (would be a great fake out ... and one last squeeze of longs looking to get in at triangle bottom). So I've shown a black line (one on the right) which extends to test the previous bottoms (6.4k/6.5k territory), before a bounce up.
Please note, as I indicated we do not have solid confirmation that wave 4 has started. This could easily turn south again and wave 3 continues. That is the black line I've drawn on the left. This would eventually lead to wave 4 and then a wave 5 could take us down much further, where I have a possible bounce at 6k and even 5.4k is a possibility for me in this scenario.
I do believe this triangle is a large continuation pattern. After a nice impulse up to 20k ... we break up out of this triangle once we complete WAVE E and to new highs. I am look forward to the second half of this year.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC Triangle Wave ... pretty much confirmed.Well folks, that last drop into the 75xx area, pretty much confirms we are heading to the bottom of the triangle. I took a long at the 0.618 fib as it was possible the correction was over ... but not without a stop, and those triggered just now. I still have some alts (EOS) that have found support ... but I'm not sure those will hold. Stops ... set them, and I don't adjust them. If there's a bounce, I'll wait for my re-entry.
Anyhow, back to the wave ... in my previous ideas I indicated there is a possibility BTC would correct 0.618 from the rise from 6.5k to 10k, and then start a nice impulse up. Based on the wave count, the lowest BTC could drop to keep this option alive was estimated to be 7644. We broke the 0.618 fib true and well (no question about it) and we invalidated the impulse wave that could have stopped it at 7644. There's not that much support at the 75xx level, and they key one is probably just a psychological support of the 7500 price. The real support is at the 0.786 fib and 72XX level. That get's BTC close enough to the triangle bottom, which is defined by the bottom bold green line labelled "6m Trnd". This is a trend line that I believe represents a good value for BTC according to a 6 to 8 month projection from last year.
So going to 72XX, will put this bottom in site at around 6900 - 7000. The bears will be that close to the goal line ... do you think they'll stop shy of that goal? I don't ...
So, I've deleted the bullish blue line scenario. We are most probably following the red wave I've plotted, and the question is how low can we go?
My thoughts are we could get a bounce at:
- 7200 where there is support and the 0.786 fib.
- 6900 where the bottom of the triangle is.
- 6500 an extended wave E and do a double (triple?) bottom test, and also makes the length of wave C the similar to wave A of this ABC correction.
I expect a bounce up from one of those points ... and the question is, do we enter a bull market, or will it be temporary relief? If it is temporary relief (drawn in dashed lines on my chart) ... we can turn this ABC correction down into an impulse, and head to 5.4k (or lower) after a small bounce up!
As usual, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC carve your path ... to green pastures or blood bath?The two roads people ... the fork in the road. Always decisions in life. Left or right, on or off, go or no go, right or wrong, up or down?
How do you decide when to buy or sell? Do you gamble, listen to others' guidance, or your own TA, identifying possibilities, key decision points and then execute a strategy for min loss/max gain, to improve chance of success?
Let's talk about that latter point, specifically how to plot out the possibilities. READ EVERYTHING CAREFULLY TO END . Contact me if you have questions.
On my chart, I am showing waves within waves. So I'm going to start with the bigger waves first, focus on these lines:
> Bold BLUE - BULLISH SCENARIO - This assumes we had a running flat ABC correction from 20k to 6.425k, and then BTC entered an impulse wave up and it could be heading much higher now (11.7k??)! For those new to trading, an impulse wave UP is a powerful wave, consisting of 3 up portions and 2 down portions (5 waves in total, up-down-up-down-up). So from 6.425k to 9.99k would be wave 1, down to 8.2k would be wave 2 (possibly not complete yet though), and now could be wave 3 (normally the longest of the three up waves ... but sometimes wave 5 is even longer!).
> Bold RED - BEARISH SCENARIO - I call this the Triangle Wave Theory. This assumes we are forming WAVE E of a triangle wave now that will take us down to maybe 6.8k or lower! Again for those learning to trade, a triangle wave consists of 5 waves A, B, C, D and E, and bounce up and down to form a sort of arrow head with the point on the right. Imagine the waves bouncing from the bottom of that arrow head to the top and back, getting shorter and shorter with wave.
OK now, let's put on our magnifying glass and zoom in a bit. Those red and blue waves each are made up of smaller waves. They aren't straight lines. They are either made up of impulse waves (5 waves) or correction waves (3 waves) ... most of the time. There's 2 wave colors I would like you to focus on now ... solid purple and dashed dark yellow.
> purple line basically shows how BTC could build the bigger blue wave. It assumes bitcoin has gone down from 9.99k in an ABC correction (see points A1, B1, C1 - note C1 end not confirmed yet!) to form wave 2 of the bigger blue wave. It assumes wave 2 may now be complete (not 100% confirmed though) and we are in an impulse wave up (5 waves) that will form wave 3 of the bigger blue wave ... exciting!
> dark yellow line. OK so I've shown two variants of this. Let me start with the first variant. It assumes that blip on the purple to B1, is not worth anything, and that we've only now completed wave A (see point A2 - end not confirmed yet!), and are possibly busy in wave B up to potentially B2. Then wave C would form taking us to the bottom of the triangle at around 6.8k/6.9k. There's also a possibility that this wave extends passed the triangle bottom (wave E's often extend). Now for the variant ... sometimes when we switch from a strong bull to strong bear sentiment we can get an impulse up follow by an impulse down (instead of an ABC correction). So this scenario shows just that, the yellow dashed line goes from 9.99k to point 1 (same as A2 - end not confirmed!), point 2 (same as B2), point 3 (same as C2), point 4 (same as yellow impulse 1), but then down to point 5, taking us to a much lower number.
So there you have it, a plan. I've applied EW theory, and show waves ending at key support/resistance levels. We have to watch at every turn to see how the plan unfolds, and modify the strategy each time critical data comes in.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions based on this. For educational purposes only.
BTC - The Maze, which way out?OK people, I've decided to lay down many possible scenarios. Let me summarize, don't have much time!
BLUE WAVE:
Assumes we completed a running flat correction to 6.5k, and now we are in an ABC correction up, or possibly an impulse. Based on the consensus of some traders I respect, it's possible we form a double top (9.7k or maybe go to 10.2kish) before we go back into an ABC correction down. That could take us down to the 6k or less territory again. After that return to a bull run, and possibly the one we've all been waiting for. That is the main scenario for the blue wave.
There are other alternatives. The first is we bounce from here into a nice impulse ... hmmm, just doesn't feel/look right. But this does imply the recovery from weeks ago (from 6.5k) isn't finished. If so, I'd expect an ABC correction down shortly after hitting the 9.7k or 10.2k mark, and we are back to the double top scenario above. So this option leads to the same thing anyhow.
Another possibility is that this is a major impulse up, and we are in WAVE 2, about to start WAVE 3, and this turns into a massive wave taking us up to some nice levels. This obviously needs us to blow right passed 10.2k to avoid a double top, so be careful if you're trying to short there ... you never know.
RED WAVE:
Assume we are in a triangle wave, and heading down in WAVE E. This will ultimately touch the bottom at around 6700ish, and possibly extend passed. 6.5k, 6k and 5.4k bottoms is where I'd be looking for a possible extension. From there, we would expect a bottom confirmation and a nice wave up, likely an impulse and return to bull market!
So either way it goes, we just have to watch these critical points. Enter in at points with tight stops. The idea is that all of these lead to a nice rebound, hopefully sometime in May. I can't wait for that to be honest ... I miss those days.
Remember only a fool relies on one possible outcome.
Do not make financial decisions based on this information. For educational purposes only.
BTC - First peg in ground. What's the next key decision point?There you go folks. We all knew it had to come back at some stage! My chart the last few days called for a potential reversal at 9800 (one of a few key levels). Now we know where it turned (one peg in the ground).
The next key thing that I see which needs to play out is whether this wave is Wave 2 of an impulse up or Wave E of a Triangle Wave.
Let me explain. There are two possibilities plotted above.
The first is shown all in BLUE from the BTC all time high at 19.9k. This shows a running flat ABC correction, which ended at 6425. After that we started an impulse wave up and the euphoria set in as wave 1 reached a peak of 9767. Now we could be in wave 2. The end of this, I cannot tell you ... but one major thing that sticks out at me is the All Time High Trend Line ... will it bounce off the top of that (around 8000ish)? Don't get confused with micro waves, where this current correction may stop at 8800 or 8500, followed by a small correction up, then another drop down. I am talking where does it end on the grand scale. Depending on how fast it drops, it could be around 8000 to 8200. Remember CME futures expire in 2 days ... so it could be fast.
The second possibility is shown all in RED from the BTC all time high at 19.9k. This shows a triangle wave, and wave D ended at 9767. This presumes we have started wave E now. If this is the case, wave E would go down to the 6700 to 6800 level and a possible extension past that is very possible. If it does break the lower boundary of the triangle the obvious bounce points would be 6425 and 6000, where we hit the two previous lows. I still like the concept of a double (or triple) bottom confirmation to set off a bull run. Imagine, after the last bull run, and then knowing it isn't going lower than 6k or 6.5k ... the bulls will have some mega power to work with.
So, how do we know what's going on. I'd say the biggest factor will be staying above that all time high trend line. Note, I might need to draw a new one to the recent high of 9767, but if we pass that, the one on my chart will definitely come into play, and I'd think this is the lowest it can reach to call it an impulse wave. If we drop below this, I'd say we are clearly in the gravity of the triangle. Obviously, no guarantees ... but again, watch between here and 8000, I'd say. Below that, I'll start preparing for a 6700 bottom, with potential wave E extension all the way to 6k. If we do bounce above 8000, it clearly invalidates the triangle wave theory, and would set off what I hope is a massive wave 3 of the impulse, and I'd expect that to test the 11.7k high.
I've drawn some very rough impulse waves in blue and red ... please don't take the levels literally. It's guesses, based on key points. Too hard to predict that far out. I show them more to help people understand the concept of the two theories. One thing is for sure, I am eager to find the bottom of this wave (whether it is E wave or wave 2), as I expect a great run up either way!
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make investment decisions using this information. For educational purposes only.
BTC/USD - Don't fomo yet. Bearish scenario still possibleHey guys,
as you can see I've labeled the count so there is actually not much to say besides: Don't fomo yet. There is still a chance for a bearish scenario. $6k is actually the initial level I was looking for to enter big before price began to surge few days ago. With respect to the length of the 3rd subwave of wave 3 in c, the upcoming fifth wave (if there will be one) has to end above or at $5.8k. Besides the fact that it would be indeed great to buy alts en masse when the recent low would be taken out, this chart does not necessarily display what I want to happen - it's just an observation as I don't trust this surge in price fully. However, if price takes out the 9.5k level and respects it as a support, I'll be looking for a buy to at least $11.7k
BTC, the line is there! Pass or fall, do you dare?Here we have it guys, as predicted, we have touched that important green trend line (within a few $). So it's D Day, kind of. Remember, if you're a whale and want to short ... what's the best option now? Probably a fake bull over that line by a few $100, get everyone long, and then short it to pieces. The squeeze will liquidate many and send it back to the underworld. One thing I've added is a bounce from the 6 month trend line. Could very well be a triangle wave we are in.
But let's not be one sided, for BTC has taken on a split personality these days. Perhaps whales have different opinions on which way it should go. If that's the case, I'm going to suggest that's evidence that the bottom is near ... a true battle with whales on both sides ... not just the lowly peasants on one side of the equation, praying that the whale gods (probably some teenager that bought BTC at $1) don't destroy our portfolio.
OK back to technicals. So, if BTC is truly reversing, how do we know? Of course we can say if it's well above 9200 we're clear ... maybe. Can we get that signal earlier ... let's consider we have a light that can turn from bright red (going down to hell) to bright green (going to the moon). In between it goes from a fainter red to clear and then fainter green to bright green. Right now we are kind of clear, maybe with a tinge of red. We are on the important test line, in an overall market bear trend, with an exciting rally from 6.5k. If we cross the All Time High Trend Line 1, that light becomes tinged green. If we cross 9200 it becomes light green, if we cross 12k it becomes really green (and then I'm sure the whales would surprise us!).
I react based on movements and TA. Up or down. Cautiously. Nothing is certain ... only probability exists. For now, I'm inclined to think that probability is tilted a little towards a drop back down (tinged red light). If it crosses that line, I'd say probability is tilted a little bullish (tinged green light), but almost too small to notice. So how do I react if I know this ... cautiously. What does that mean? Babying this thing, lots of time. Right now. Watching. Closely. Getting ready to long and short, all at the same time.
Good luck people. Either way ... down or up, I think it's good news. Down in my eyes is the last movement before a nice bull run (I hope I'm right!). Up, I'm a much better trader in a bull market ... and so is probably 90% of the crypto community.
Remember, only a fool relies on one possible outcome.
Do not rely on this for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
Are even the whales confused? BTC where are we going?Well folks, not too much change on my chart, just a few updates. No doubt the alts are getting some action while BTC is confused. Seems that the whales are fighting. One dumps, one buys. Or maybe this confusion is what they want? Where are we going whales?
8500 is something I'll watch closely. A break out from here is a bullish indicator ... but I also don't want to get caught in a bull trap, with a brief extension above the All Time High Trend Line 1. So I'll wait a little and see what it does. 9177 is the next test. So perhaps I'll test the waters between 8700 and 9200, without betting the house.
On the other hand if 8500 fails, that could be what the bears are waiting for. Probably a smart play would be to setup a bull trap above the All Time High Trend Line, squeeze those shorts, get everyone long, and then setup a nice long squeeze, sending the price down!
If we reverse, I think a 6k double bottom test is a logical target. That could very well start a nice bull run and propel us up to greener pastures. But depending on how much panic sets in 5.4k and 5k are possibilities. Lower than 5k, I'd say the odds start dropping off fast. It's all about probability, and based on that I will stagger in my buys from 6k down.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome!
Do not use this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC how high will you GO, and will you ever reach that LOW?We're coming up to an important resistance level, all time high trend line 1, and a fib is also converging there. Interesting zone is the 8500 to 8700 level, and breaking this could mean a run up to test the previous high of 9177 (call it 9200). A safer long at 8800 though (although there's no guarantees as you already know), but 9200 could be the turning point, so the reversal may be quick.
It could also fail at that all time high trend line (or even around now as we are close enough).
We won't be going to 20k in one straight line, it's simply a question of when the reversal will happen and with how much force. I'm still counting on either a 6k double bottom test or a 5.4k bottom (could go lower though), and I'm also ready to react if the market has a different idea. Charts are to help us point out patterns and key levels. 8500 - 8700 is KEY to me ... so I'd watch it closely.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC - For the Elliot Wave IdealistsSo in the past few weeks, a couple of people have questioned whether this is a grand impulse wave down, annoyed by the fact that wave 4 would have to go into wave 1 territory. I've updated my chart to show an ABC correction after an impulse up to 19.9k. The outcome that is applicable over the next few weeks doesn't change much, as I have been saying.
In an ABC correction, wave C tends to correct to the wave 4 bottom of the impulse up (see Nov 2017 low, point ). Therefore, wave C may likely go to 5.4k ... and a double bottom test of 6k is also possible. Both for me are credible end points, before the market sentiment changes. Many are switching their tune based on the bull euphoria right now ... but is it a bull trap. Some wary investors are not satisfied with wave C ending at 6425, above wave A (6000). To complete the correction, technically wave C should at least retrace to the 6k level.
Another point is ... is wave B over? Possibly not, it could retrace up to the all time trend line 1, that would be a real bull trap! Given this is likely an ABC correction now (referring to mini wave), it doesn't change my expected bottom for wave C.
Let's see.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not rely on this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
Oh the bliss, what a disguise. BTC will you go down or rise?Well, well, well .... just as I gave up on wave 4, here we are. At this point we've reached the all time high trend line and we are hitting a key Fib. Are we all wrong (oh yes, many have changed their tunes now after calling a 4k, 3k, 2k, 1k bottom). Wall street always wins, remember that. They want your money, so they do what's worst for you. Short you say, stay in cash you say? That must have hurt. I'm not trying to be funny guys, but we need to wake up.
So where will it go now, as the BTC world turns to bullish euphoria? What will wall street do. It could go up, yes ... but at some point it will drop. The question is when. I don't know that, and it is clear most traders don't either. All I can say, according to the past, is what I think is key to determine sentiment and where I think it can go. At this stage, if we have topped out on wave 4 now, and EW theory holds true (although we already broke some principles), then the bottom in the mid term is estimated to be as low as 5.4k. It can bounce at 6k too!
Anyhow, too many times I've been hypnotized by all the green, and then caught in a blood bath the next day. Not today, I'm starting to cash out and lock in my profits. Maybe I'm wrong ... but I'm very confident about one thing ... wall street always win. I'll be ready, either way they take it!
Remember only a fool relies on one outcome.
Do not use this for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC Purgatory ... heaven or hell?Well, interesting and confusing movements from BTC. Is this a grand setup for a bull trap, which will set off the final decent to sub 6k levels, or has grand wave 5 ended, and the confusion as sign that BTC has reached bottom, and a market reversal is fueling up?
Scenario B assumes we are now forming wave 4, and the bull trap is being set. It was clear that hovering around the 6.5k mark would not provide the steam necessary to go down to the 4k, 5k or 6k levels most were hoping for. Imagine all the margin short positions that got taken out in this last move up ... a good way for wall street to make money. And after this rise, will they achieve the momentum they'll need on a short to take BTC to a bottom that is 6k or lower?? Food for thought.
OR!!!!
Scenario C assumes we are done and the bears have given up. This would mean we've completed wave 4 AND wave 5 with a double bottom test at 6.5k BTC. This would move would also mean we are experiencing a market reversal, which would explain all the confusing signals.
Have we crossed over into a bull heaven, or are the bears gripping BTC's ankle, pulling it back into the fiery flames of hell.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not rely on this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
BTC HEADING 4k[?]*bad english alert
2 scenarios:
thats the bearish scenario= after 19K BTC 1.77% correcting with ABCDE pattern,double zigzag then 5 wavesthen another double zigzag;
call it 33-5-33 if u like.
heading towards last target E.
Wich also be the END of this huge falling wedge .(Yellow line near E).
i wish us luck.
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update
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Secong scenario=
yellow lines are falling wegde/up&down trend lines.
if btc will not go down that 2 first line and will keep find support in them we should break it by the cross of the up & down trend lines.
if it will break them both then scenario one is active and were heading 4k.
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EITHER WAY $BTC is going for new highs in the future. its just unclear when it will start.
i see 40k by end 2018.
Super Falling Wedge is forming, possible mega reversal inbound.The daily is forming a super falling wedge here which falls in the category reversal patterns. Next to that we have a daily ready to come down to oversold territory.
For the coming days this means our price could dip to around 5.8 - 6k making our final leg down.
If we manage to break out of this wedge the pump can be witnessed as monstrous and overwhelming in my opinion.
To be safe I placed stop buys just above the wedge (7600), just incase we breakout earlier (I don't expect that to happen, but better be sure).
Greetings,
Vincent
UPDATE - PM, April 4, 2018 - Bitcoin in its darkest hourGuys, I've decided to put Scenario B back on the table. Zooming into the data, I see we could be in wave B of a ABC correction. Others think this is about to turn into an extended wave 5, which is also possible. So it's possible that mini wave 4 is not complete.
So to recap:
SCENARIO A - assumes we are still in mini wave 3, and the rally of yesterday is just noise. Showing a bounce off 6k or slightly lower, and then after completing wave 4 we go down to a bottom, completing both mini and grand wave 5, showing a potential low of 4k.
SCENARIO B - assume we are still completing wave 4, and current dip is simply part of a micro ABC correction. Showing a potential reversal at the All-Time-High trend line 2, but a bounce of the Fibs is also possible. Then we drop to 6k or lower to complete both mini and grand wave 5. I am starting to like this scenario a little more, as we expect a nice bull run after grand wave 5 completes. A double bottom to confirm THE BOTTOM would be a great way to start a bull run.
SCENARIO C - assumes we have finished wave 4 and started wave 5. On the micro scale we will have some very small recoveries and drops along the way, but eventually, we should enter the target box area. Showing a bounce around 5k, close to support and a Fib.
Remember, only a fool counts on one scenario!
Do not use for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
UPDATED Apr 4, 2018 - Bitcoin in it's darkest hourHello gang.
So a quick update. I think that drop has invalidated Scenario B, which took wave 4 to the All-Time-High Trend line 2. In the least, it's definitely hurt the probability of it going there. I've removed it from the graph, to simplify the TA.
The scenario I've shown here are Scenario A ... this assumes that we are still in mini wave 3 of an impulse wave down. It basically treats the small rally and reversal as "noise". It assumes we will have a hard bounce off 6k (double bottom test) before starting mini wave 4. Mini wave 4 stops short of the wave 1 bottom, and bounces off a Fib line (0.786) before making it's final plunge to the bottom. This assumes mini wave 5 is shorter than mini wave 3, which keeps Elliot Wave theory in check. The box shown at the bottom right is the target range for the bottom of mini wave 5 keeping these "rules" in mind, and there is support at 5.4k, 5k, 4.5k and 4k that all fall in that box, so anyone of those could be the point we bounce from.
The other scenario I've shown here is Scenario C (B has been deleted) ... this assumes we finished mini wave 3 at 6.4k a few days back, and the recent rally to 7.5k is mini wave 4 completed. This means we would be in mini-wave 5 now, and the final wave to the mid-term bottom (and perhaps the very bottom). I've explained that comment below. If Scenario C is correct, then the box on the lower left is the potential target for the mini and grand wave 5 bottom, and there is support at 6k (double bottom test before a good bounce), 5.4k and 5k. Anyone of those could be the point we bounce from. A double bottom test at 6k to confirm "the bottom" would make sense in my mind ... but who knows what the big guys have planned to do with BTC.
OK, so could this be the final bottom after a grand impulse wave from 20k to ??. Some will say that my grand wave is incorrect, and wave 1 is from 20k to 6k ... possible. That would put us in grand wave 3 right now, and therefore after some reprieve in a grand wave 4 ... we still have to form grand wave 5 and this would take us to a very low price (perhaps then those predicting a bottom at 1k to 3k will finally claim victory, but I think it will be months before we can get to those levels). Others have drawn the same lines and called it an ABC correction (20k to 6k is wave A, 6k to 11.7k is wave B, and now we are in wave C). This theory essentially means the grand wave 5 I have shown in this chart is wave C, and the outcome is the same.
Remember, only a fool counts on one outcome!
Please do not use this information for investment purposes. This is for educational purposes only.
are we going to test or break the old low?are we going to test or break the old low, or are we going to break the resistance and are we going up (see my other trading idea below)
