Get started

AA

AA: Looking weakAA has formed a potential time at mode downtrend setup below a Key Earnings Support level, and a significant mode to the left. I expect a move to the downside to emerge from here. To trade it, you can enter on a break of the last low, with stops above 9.52, and targetting the next support level, or the time at mode target. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
NYSE:AAShort
by IvanLabrie
2
AA - Neutral/LongAlcoa successfully breached its downward trendline (blue) and made it past key resistance at 8.51, in line with my expectations for this stock to perform bullishly based on technicals at the time. The picture has changed somewhat. First, note the slightly decreasing volume during its 2016 breakout signalling that its momentum is decreasing, albeit not significantly. Secondly, we can notice that the RSI is at 65 and that a sell-off of a few days is due. Finally, notice the spinning tops on the last day of trading. This indicates a tug of war between the bears and the bulls - the stock moving wildly up and down before settling into an uncertain close only a minuscule amount below its open. This is a difficult position for the stock to close at, because of key resistance it ran into at around 9.55 back in November and December. Ultimately the stock needed three tries to penetrate this level. Assuming there is no major macroeconomic news one way or the other, I expect this stock to trade down for a few days. I see two major possibilities for it trading down. 1) a few down days in keeping with its current trend before it breaches resistance at 9.55 and establishes that price as new support while it trends for a time between 9.55 and its next key resistance at approx 10.20. 2) It may also trade dramatically lower to support at 8.50 and build moment for a time (many days) between 9.5 and 8.5. Ultimately I think this stock is headed up for a while longer, but it needs to regain some momentum and the bullish signals are less significant than they were several days ago. Additionally, because its closer to a major resistance line at 10.20ish than it was several days ago the risk/reward is less enticing in the short term. All of this points to a neutral, take a wait and see approach.
NYSE:AA
by tapkcir
AA - BULL?Alcoa has been trending down over the past year, as denoted by the blue trendline following its price peaks over the past 12 months or so. Over the past two days its finally broken through that line, indicating that the trend may possibly be reversing and Alcoa may rise. In the short term if Alcoa does continue to rise, expect resistance at $10. This is an important level psychologically (double digits) as well as marking a recent peak that Alcoa was unable to break in mid December. Volume today is already above the moving average on a strong move above the trendline. I view that (at this moment) as a good indicator that this is a for real bullish move and Alcoa is headed up. I'm still calling this neutral however, as its a one day peak so far on a trading day that is still ongoing. A few side notes: Alcoa is divided into two major business sections which are due to split towards the second half of 2016. One half focuses on aluminum, the other on aerospace. This makes it an interesting case with regards to aluminum prices influencing a major producer of aluminum, as a large portion of its current business is no longer centered around that metal. Despite that, prices of aluminum will still influence the stock - keep that in mind.
NYSE:AA
by tapkcir
AA -- WATCH FOR VOLATILITY POP AROUND EARNINGSI have not played AA for it seems like eons. This is because my go-to, premium selling play for earnings is the short strangle, and you won't get sufficient premium out of a low priced underlying like AA via short strangle for the life of you. The other option, naturally, is a short straddle , but even then it's a slog to squeeze sufficient premium out of the setup to make it worthwhile. However, given where AA is at in its trajectory (another beaten down commodity/basic materials play), it's literally begging for a covered call at some point. But those are best put on when volatility in the underlying is high, since volatility enrichens premium in the short call of the setup and reduces your cost basis to a greater degree. Consequently, what I'm watching for is a volatility pop around earnings such that doing a covered call with a short strike slightly above current price is worthwhile (a dip like we had last post-earnings would also be helpful). It's frankly not horrible right now, but I generally look to put these on when implied volatility rank is above 70 and the setup will yield 10% return on capital if called away at the short call price of the setup. A 100 @ 9.87/Feb 19th 10 short call will cost 9.13 to put on with a max profit of .87. Could be better, naturally.
NYSE:AALong
by NaughtyPines