AAL Showing a Good Sign with its Market BehaviourWelcome to Profitlio Trading!
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This is going to be a perfect sign for gains in AAL market. As of it failed to break the diagonal support it has formed. Look into the highlighted eclipse and good place for a long term buying opportunities. Sketch up your own trade setup before you take off. Our Previous selling banked with 100+ Pips and Good Luck!
Profitlio Trading ( Since 2014 in Financial Markets )
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Traders Disclaimer: Non of our analysis or trade setups being shared here on tradingview is a trading advice. As we keep on weekly updates with our predictions and expectations. We may take them as a trade only if trade setup meets the required criteria ( Confirmations ). Unless we will never take them as a trade if it never reach our trading requirements.
Take them at your own risk as trading is highly risky and you may loss your investments. Our trades are based on Swinging and Mid to long term approaches. All trades executed will be handled under the name of Profitlio Trading only.
AAL
$AAL EPS Projection = -$2.47 / Falling WedgeI will be looking for $AAL to follow this falling wedge downwards and likely lag till earnings. Earnings may cause more downside.
Wall Street Journal EPS Projection: -$1.83
More realistic EPS: -$2.47
I believe revenue projections are heavily understated as shown by Ford.
$UAL has quarterly revenues under 10 billion and predicted a revenue loss in march alone at 1.5 billion . $AAL I am betting will have lost more revenue than 1.5 billion in March.
If we take into account $UAL projecting losses of 1.5billion in March when their revenue is under 10 billion a quarter it is safe to say that $AAL would lose 1.5 billion in revenue as well, which is generous because they could have lost more.
Projected Revenues/Expenses/Net Income/EPS
Operating Expense for Q1: 10.157 billion
Operating Expenses for January: 3.386 billion
Operating Expenses for February: 3.386 billion
Operating Expenses for March: 3.386 billion
Operating Revenue for Q1: 10.757 billion
Operating Revenue for January: 3.585 billion
Operating Revenue for February: 3.585 billion
Operating Revenue for March if it were a normal month, based on trends: 3.585 billion
Non operating expenses: 158 million
Net income in January: 200 million
Net income in February: 200 million (generous)
Expected losses in revenue for March: 1.5 billion
Expected Operating revenue for March: 2.085 billion.
Net income in March: -1.3billion
200 mill + 200 mill -1.3billion - 158 million = -1.058 billion before taxes
No clue how this loss would be taxed, so let's just leave that alone, but this means their real net income after tax will be worse than -1.058 billion
-1.058 billion / 428.2million weighted outstanding shares = -$2.47 EPS or worse.
This is important because a normal falling wedge like this would break towards the upside, however if earnings are truly this bad I believe there may be more downside.
Different airlines, different leverges."The Senate's bailout package, which deals with the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus, will give airlines $25 billion in direct grants as long as they agree not to place any employees on involuntary furloughs or discontinue service at any airports they now serve until at least the end of September. Another $25 billion is available for loan guarantees."-- CNN
Four popular American Aviation industry leaders are under fire sale.. but which will hold till the end and outperform in your portfolio?
I made a fundamental comparison of these companies. mainly focusing on debt/bankruptcy risk.
AAL Watched as AAL shot up to a big supply zone. Tagged it and rejected right away. Was a quick move but was able to get some good fills on puts right away for a nice swing back down after rejection.
Think it will bounce around for a bit but no trade plans until price drifts back towards either of the demand/supply zoneS. If supply, since it was such a very brief tag, I think it can hold up. But, then again with the stock being so beaten could even see a gap and go over it.
American Airlines Heading towards 9 Years LowWelcome to Profitlio Trading!
What's up traders! Thanks for Jumping back on my Analysis, Traderchamp is here on your Service, Also hit thumbs up and support the work.
AAL price broke the diagonal support it held for last monthly candle. And price has heavily broke it and heading downwards and expecting a target around 3.87 where 9 years low held and the support formed.
Profitlio Trading ( Since 2014 in Financial Markets )
________________________________________________
Traders Disclaimer: Non of our analysis or trade setups being shared here on tradingview is a trading advice. As we keep on weekly updates with our predictions and expectations. We may take them as a trade only if trade setup meets the required criteria ( Confirmations ). Unless we will never take them as a trade if it never reach our trading requirements.
Take them at your own risk as trading is highly risky and you may loss your investments. Our trades are based on Swinging and Mid to long term approaches. All trades executed will be handled under the name of Profitlio Trading only.
AAL 10-Year LowAmerican Airlines is currently sitting at a 10-year low. Stock prices have not gone this low since 2008 financial crash which specifically was due to the housing market in the united states. As we trade near the low of the stock range we are testing near the support level. Potential for the stock to drop below the support level remains high as cashflow is dwindling for the airlines
American Airline in a falling wedge, but future is goodhas bullish divergences on the 4H but further downside is probable. Might drop to the buy zone and make another bullish div.
With multiple gaps above the current price, a significant retrace is very like in the future, barring the end of the world.
Travel will surge significantly once lockdown is eased due to pent up demand. However I expect that the corona pandemic will last until start of summer when high temperatures will slow viral transmission.
This is my first look at a stock on tradingview. I believe that cryptos are the best longterm investment, but this stock is low risk at the buy zone due to fundamentals, such as American aviation will to be bailed out by the US government in time of trouble.
AAL | Trend Analysis | Weekly Long idea
Note: Consistent success in financial markets requires a personalized trading strategy
*A method that specifies the type and amount of patience
*Entry and exit points
*Your customized psychology plan
*Risk management program based on your personality
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Know When to Stop Trading:
There are two reasons to stop trading: an ineffective trading plan, and an ineffective trader.
An ineffective trading plan shows much greater losses than anticipated in historical testing. Markets may have changed, volatility within a certain trading instrument may have lessened, or the trading plan simply is not performing as well as expected. One will benefit from remaining unemotional and businesslike. It might be time to reevaluate the trading plan and make a few changes or to start over with a new trading plan. An unsuccessful trading plan is a problem that needs to be solved. It is not necessarily the end of the trading business.
An ineffective trader is one who is unable to follow his or her trading plan. External stressors, poor habits and lack of physical activity can all contribute to this problem. A trader who is not in peak condition for trading should consider a break to deal with any personal problems, be it health or stress or anything else that prohibits the trader from being effective. After any difficulties and challenges have been dealt with, the trader can resume.
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$AAL Iron CondorHaven't posted on here in a bit. Figured I would share some plays that take advantage of the recent spike in volatility.
Airlines have taken an absolute beating, and if you put a gun to my head I would say that will continue. However I don't see it happening at the same pace and we should get a couple green days mixed in. The high IV has provided a very wide profit zone here, a range equal to nearly 50% of the underlying with only 3 weeks til expiration.
Buy: 3/20 24 Call
Sell: 3/20 22 Call
Sell: 3/20 14 Put
Buy: 3/20 12 Put
Net Credit: $52
Max Loss: $148
AL Testing Final Support Level Above 200 MATrade Background:
Price has been in a downward trend since the start of this year. This is due to the market pricing in less demand in flying due to the corona virus. For this reason price has fallen to key support just above 200 MA. Look for a swing to the topside of the trend as market sentiment recovers. Cut loss if price consolidates below 200 MA.
Trade Idea:
Entry: 42.50 to 44.00
Stop loss: 42.00