American Airlines Losing Some AltitudeAmerican Airlines has been in a bullish trend since last year. During this course of this trend, the stock has moved down after hitting resistance. The stock is currently at this point of resistance and should follow suit by moving down. I will outline why the near-term movement is likely to the downside below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 65.8724. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is not necessarily at an overbought point, but it has been trending lower since December. During this downtrend, the RSI has failed to break through this resistance. The RSI is currently at this point of resistance. If the RSI fails to move above it, the stock could begin its downward movement in the near-term. This is the first indicator of potential near-term downward movement.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 12.0840. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been trending up, but its upward movement is starting to stall. This stall is the second indicator of potential near-term downward movement.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1147 and the negative is at 0.7578. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive indicator has stayed above the negative indicator for almost two months. This won't last forever, but as long as the positive stays above the negative this could slow any drop in the stock.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 85.2360 and D value is 64.3122. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The K value is currently overbought, but the overall oscillator is not yet overbought. The stock's current bull trend has naturally cycled up and down to get from bottom to top. During this current trend channel, the current stochastic level has served as a top and the stock dropped. On March 30, the stock fell over 4% over the next 3 trading days. On May 11, the stock fell 6% over the next 5 trading days. This is the third indicator of potential near-term downward movement.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3.5% over the next 20 trading days if not sooner.
