AAOI
AAOI | InformativeNASDAQ:AAOI
RSI is in the overbought territory, and the price is significantly distant from EMA20, indicating an extended condition. Additionally, we are currently in Wave 3, which suggests the potential for the price to reach $11.30 before a correction. However, considering the risk-reward ratio, it is no longer acceptable. I anticipate a pullback to the range of $6-7 as Wave 4, followed by a subsequent rise to $17 to complete Wave 5.
Can AAOI continue a 400% trend up ?AAOI has trended up more than 450% since May 23th. The big question is can it continue?
The factors include:
1 Volume - volume is what causes price action. Here rising volumes above the running mean
suggest that there is plenty of volume support for price action.
2. Anchored VWAP analysis is that after a pullback in VWAP levels in mid June price has been
rising and crossing VWAP levels above it. This is essentially a VWAP breakout. Price is increasingly
overbought and overvalued and perhaps due for another correction.
3. RSI of both the lower and high time frames crossed 80 more than a week ago. Thus far
RSI is stable without any sign of falling into bearish divergence.
4. The MACD lines are parallel and well above the histogram. They are at about the 9 level.
Price reversed on June 20th into the pullback. This is when the lines were at 11.7. This reasonably suggests another pullback or correction when they rise again to 11.7
Given the above, I conclude that AAOI has upside room until divergence is seen or trading volumes change to net selling volume or price outright pivots down from a high.
Accordingly, I will take a long trade expecting to capture the end of this massive trend up.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc 🧙Applied Optoelectronics Inc is a provider of fiber-optic networking products, primarily for the Internet data center, cable television, and fiber-to-the-home end markets. The company focuses on designing and manufacturing a range of optical communication products from components, to subassemblies, and modules to complete turn-key equipment. Demand for Applied Optoelectronics is driven by bandwidth demand in end markets. Through direct sales personnel, and manufacturing teams in the United States, China, and Taiwan, the company coordinates with customers to determine product design, qualifications, and performance.
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$AAOI Bearish Options Activity - $1M Earnings Bet$AAOI Bearish Options Activity - Earnings Tomorrow
17k $12-$14-$15 strike puts expiring this Friday traded today vs OI of 3k for total premium of $1.3M
Price could see sub-$13 this week in my opinion if ER is negative.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
Alternate Telecom Play (Materials) w/ Cyclical Trade HistoryTelecom build out in 2nd half or 2018 has been confirmed by multiple companies to be primed and heavy. First report of year is seasonally week and reflected across sector. AXT is traditionally conservative with forward looking statements, so beats are regular and plausible. New factory is almost completed and 3D Sensing capability has already been confirmed for further exploration. Technical trade up to $9 PT coincides with resistance line after price has managed to sustain within fib levels during recent periods of volatility.
AAOI will eventually recover but bottom hasn't arrived yetCurrently a falling knife while its sector is suffering cyclicality. AAOI will need to come clean on whether AMZN and FB have been lost. Chinese competition is pulling the sector down with possibly more supplies than demand. Add to that the weakened investor confidence in AAOI management. My suggestion is that you either short this or stay on the sidelines until after next ER. If ER disappoints, this will bleed to $25 if not below. Also, looks like institutions are dumping this since the beginning of December: fintel.io