Apple Stock Is Surging! Here’s What Most People MissWhen it comes to trading, we don’t care about the latest news headlines or whether some analyst has upgraded or downgraded Apple stock. We focus on one thing and one thing only: the undeniable forces of supply and demand imbalances on higher timeframes.
Right now, Apple’s monthly chart is a textbook example of how waiting for a strong demand imbalance pays off. That $178 monthly level is no random number. It’s the exact origin of a massive bullish impulse that happened in June 2024 — the kind of move that only happens when smart money and big institutions step in, creating an imbalance that pushes the price away rapidly.
📈 It’s Not About Fundamentals. It’s About Imbalances.
Most retail traders waste time chasing news, earnings, or rumours about iPhone sales. But if you think about it, all those factors are already priced in once a strong imbalance is formed. Institutions don’t wait for tomorrow’s news — they plan their positions weeks or months ahead, and those footprints are visible right on your chart.
The $178 level indicates a significant drop in supply and a surge in demand large enough to propel Apple higher, marked by consecutive large bullish candlesticks. That’s our signal — nothing more, nothing less.
AAPL
AAPLAAPL price is near the support zone 195-193. If the price can still stand above 193, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying in the red zone.
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AAAPL: Updated Outlook and Best Level to BUY/HOLD 70% gains________________________________________
Apple Outlook: July 2025–Q1 2026
After peaking near $200 in late May, Apple (AAPL) remains under correction territory despite pockets of resilience, closing July around $193. The current correction is projected to persist until Q1 2026, as global macro and policy headwinds weigh on the broader tech sector. Technicals suggest AAPL could find its cycle low between Q3 and Q4 2025, potentially setting the stage for a renewed bull run into late 2026. Pullback until 170/175 USD. 📉
Catalysts Shaping Apple’s Stock Price in 2025–26
1. AI Integration and Apple Intelligence
Strength: 9/10
The roll-out of on-device Apple Intelligence features—including an upgraded Siri, ChatGPT integrations, and generative AI tools—continues to build anticipation for a major iPhone upgrade supercycle. Initial adoption has been strong, but broader impact will hinge on Q4 developer and enterprise feedback. 🤖
2. Services Segment Growth
Strength: 8.5/10
Apple’s Services business (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, AI-powered subscriptions) is projected to post double-digit growth into Q4 2025, with consensus revenue estimates at $25–27B for the quarter. Analysts see upside from new AI-driven service bundles, which could add $5–8B in annualized revenue by 2026. 💡
3. Gross Margin Expansion & Cost Efficiencies
Strength: 8/10
Apple’s gross margin is forecast to improve by up to 60 basis points in Q4 2025 as the product mix tilts toward higher-margin services, and as component costs ease. Operational efficiencies from supply-chain automation may further cushion profit margins amid macro uncertainty. 📊
4. iPhone 17 Product Cycle
Strength: 7.5/10
The iPhone 17 lineup—rumored to include advanced polymer batteries and potential foldable form factors—is expected to launch Q4 2025, giving Apple a competitive hardware edge versus Android rivals. Early channel checks point to pent-up demand, though upgrade rates may lag previous cycles due to consumer caution. 📱
5. Vision Pro & Hardware Diversification
Strength: 7/10
Next-gen Vision Pro headsets and new AR/VR devices, boosted by Apple Intelligence, are expected to drive incremental growth in Q4 2025. However, high price points and limited mainstream adoption keep near-term impact contained. 🥽
6. Share Buybacks & Dividend Policy
Strength: 7/10
Apple’s $110B share buyback authorization and steady dividend growth provide valuation support, but recent market volatility has prompted a more cautious pace of repurchases. Yield-seeking investors are watching closely for any pivot in capital return policy if macro pressures persist. 💵
7. Supply Chain & Trade Policy Risks
Strength: 6.5/10
Escalating U.S.–China trade tensions—including the risk of expanded tariffs or tech export bans—remain a top concern. Apple is accelerating its assembly shift toward India and Vietnam to diversify risk, but any new policy shocks in Q4 could hit margins and unit volumes. 🌏
8. Regulatory & Antitrust Pressures
Strength: 6/10
The EU’s Digital Markets Act and potential U.S. antitrust probes could force Apple to further open up its iOS ecosystem by year-end, potentially capping Services revenue growth and adding compliance costs. ⚖️
9. Macro & Interest-Rate Environment
Strength: 5/10
With the Fed signaling “higher for longer” rates through mid-2026, tech sector valuations remain under pressure. Analysts see this limiting multiple expansion even if EPS growth resumes in late 2025. 📈
10. Smartphone Market Competition
Strength: 5/10
Aggressive pricing and innovation from Samsung and Chinese OEMs are intensifying competitive pressures, especially in emerging markets. Apple’s share gains are likely to slow until the macro environment improves and new hardware cycles fully materialize. 🥊
________________________________________
Analyst Projections for Q4 2025:
• Consensus Revenue: $108–112B (up ~4% YoY)
• EPS Estimate: $2.30–$2.42
• Gross Margin: 45–46%
• iPhone Unit Growth: 2–3%
• Services Revenue: $25–27B
Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan maintain “Overweight” ratings, but expect rangebound performance until macro and trade uncertainty clears. Most price targets for Q4 2025 hover between $195–$215, with upside potential post-correction into 2026. 📊
________________________________________
Analyst / Firm Date Rating Price Target (USD)
Barclays 06/24/2025 – 173 ()
Jefferies (E. Lee) 07/01/2025 Hold (Upgraded) 188.32
UBS (D. Vogt) 07/03/2025 – 210.00
J.P. Morgan (S. Chatterjee) 06/26/2025 Overweight 230.00
Morgan Stanley (E. Woodring) 03/12/2025 Overweight 252.00
Evercore ISI 01/31/2025 – 260.00
Redburn Partners 01/31/2025 – 230.00
D.A. Davidson (G. Luria) 05/02/2025 – 250.00
TradingView Consensus (avg) – Consensus 228.98
TipRanks Consensus (avg over 3mo) – Consensus 226.36
Apple Is Climbing the Fibonacci Channel Ladder – Step 5 Ahead?On the monthly chart, Apple (AAPL) is steadily moving within a well-defined ascending Fibonacci channel, like climbing a ladder — step by step.
The price is currently testing Step 4 , a zone that has acted as a strong resistance barrier.
Despite the pressure here, the structure still appears bullish, and even a minor pullback might simply be a pause before the next move.
If momentum picks up, we could soon see a breakout toward the next step — targeting 234 at Step 5.
The trend remains technically intact unless the channel is broken, and the overall formation still leans toward continuation.
APPLE Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for APPLE below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 213.58
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 208.03
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
APPLE: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
APPLE
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short APPLE
Entry - 213.58
Sl - 217.99
Tp - 204.49
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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APPLE: 1st 1D Golden Cross in 2 years just formed.Apple is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.490, MACD = 1.760, ADX = 17.850) and yesterday it started forming the first 1D Golden Cross in more than 2 years. This signals the extension of the 2nd major bullish wave of the 3 year Channel Up. The previous one made an incredible extensino to +78.49%. That gives us the target to work with for the rest of the year. The trade is long, TP = $290.
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BTCUSD| Bitcoin’s Historic Parabolic Pattern🔥 Parabolic Pattern | Institutional COINBASE:BTCUSD Demand Mirrors Gold ETF Era 🔥
COINBASE:BTCUSD vs SP:SPX vs TVC:GOLD
The market is whispering something big — and it's not retail noise this time. For the third straight quarter, listed corporations have outpaced ETFs in Bitcoin purchases, a seismic shift that echoes one key moment in history: the launch of the Gold ETF. Companies like NASDAQ:MSTR contiune to buy and others are following. Will NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:GOOG be next ? Let me know in the comments who you think will be next to buy?
Back then, companies rushed to gold as a hedge against inflation and a store of value as fiat cracks widened. Fast forward to now — we're seeing the same institutional footprints in Bitcoin. The buy-the-dip narrative isn't just alive — it's being driven by corporate balance sheets.
Rumors are circulating that the U.S. government plans to buy 1 million BTC — a move that would shake the global financial system to its core. If true, this isn’t just bullish — it’s historic. The last time governments got this aggressive with a hard asset was during the Gold Reserve buildup. Bitcoin isn’t just digital gold anymore — it’s becoming sovereign-level collateral. 📈💥
💬 Drop your thoughts below. Is this the beginning of the next parabolic era?
In this episode, we break down the parabolic pattern forming on the chart, why it may signal the next explosive leg up, and how history is repeating with BTC playing the role of digital gold.
📊 Technical breakdown. On-chain behavior. Smart money moves.
Don’t blink. Parabolas end in fireworks.
I've been trading for 17 years
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💬 Got questions or thoughts? Leave a comment below — I always respond and happy to help.
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MartyBoots
Apple: More Room to RunWe still allow more room for Apple’s magenta wave (B) to extend upward before wave (C) takes over, pulling the stock toward the low of green wave . Thereafter, green wave should start (above $168) and initiate the next advance, lifting the stock toward resistance at $260.10. A break below $168, however, would activate our alternative scenario, in which blue wave alt.(IV) targets a deeper low (32% probability).
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
AAPL Significant Event NASDAQ:AAPL
1. Bullish Breakout :
In the daily chart bullish breakout has been seen. If the bullish momentum is strong, the price may follow the upward.
2. Target Price : Potential target price 214
3. Risk Factors:
A. Failure to breakout the resistance 206
B. Sideways trend may be started.
C. Broader market weakness or correction
D. False Breakouts
---------------------
Note :
If you’re interested in receiving detailed technical analysis reports on your selected stocks, feel free to reach out to me. I can provide you with customized reports covering trends, key levels, momentum, patterns, and price projections to support your trading or investment decisions.
AAPL Poised for Continued GrowthIf you haven`t bought AAPL before the rally:
What to consider now:
1. AI-Driven iPhone Upgrade CycleApple’s integration of Apple Intelligence, its proprietary AI platform, is set to catalyze a significant iPhone replacement cycle. Posts on X highlight positive sentiment around AI-driven demand, with estimates suggesting a 40% year-over-year surge in iPhone shipments in China during May 2024, signaling strong consumer interest. New AI features, such as on-device processing for enhanced privacy and functionality, are expected to drive accelerated hardware upgrades. Analysts, including Bernstein, project these features could boost upgrade rates, with even a 1% increase in upgrades driving meaningful revenue growth. With the iPhone 15 and future iterations leveraging AI, Apple is likely to capture pent-up demand, as noted by industry observers who see long-term revenue growth from its 7% year-over-year increase in active installed base.
2. Strong Ecosystem and Services GrowthApple’s ecosystem—spanning iPhones, iPads, Macs, and wearables—continues to drive customer loyalty and recurring revenue. The company reported record services growth in Q2 2025, with revenue reaching $95.4 billion, up 5% year-over-year. Services like Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple TV+ benefit from the growing active device base, which ensures sticky, high-margin revenue streams. This ecosystem strength mitigates concerns about short-term iPhone sales fluctuations, as Apple captures upgrade revenue over time. The seamless integration of hardware and services creates a moat that competitors struggle to replicate, reinforcing AAPL’s long-term growth potential.
3. Technical Bullish MomentumFrom a technical perspective, AAPL exhibits strong bullish patterns across multiple timeframes. TradingView analyses point to a rising bullish channel, with higher highs and higher lows signaling sustained upward momentum. Key bullish patterns, such as an ascending wedge and triangle, are forming around current price levels, suggesting potential breakouts. For instance, if AAPL clears $203.21 with volume, it could target $204.98 or higher, with some analyses eyeing $240 as a near-term resistance. Technical indicators like a rising RSI and MACD convergence further support short-term bullish momentum. Despite recent consolidation, reduced volatility and a strong setup pattern indicate AAPL is primed for a breakout.
4. Analyst Optimism and Market SentimentAnalyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with a consensus “Buy” rating and a 12-month price target of $228.85, implying a 14.05% upside from the current price of $200.66 as of June 2025. Hedge funds like Third Point see “significant” upside, driven by AI features that could meaningfully boost earnings. Bernstein’s raised price target to $240 reflects confidence in Apple’s ability to monetize AI through hardware and services. Posts on X also highlight investor optimism, with AAPL’s $350 billion market cap increase in a single day underscoring strong market confidence in its AI-driven growth chapter.
5. Global Expansion and Emerging MarketsApple’s growth in emerging markets, particularly India and China, bolsters its bullish case. Improved guidance for December 2023, driven by iPhone 15 adoption and India’s market potential, signals untapped opportunities. Apple’s ability to penetrate these high-growth regions, combined with its premium brand appeal, positions it to capture a larger share of global smartphone and tech markets.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TLSA Catalyst Ranking and Market Update: June 2025Here's an updated/revised outlook for TSLA including all the primary
catalyst ranking and analyst ratings and overview of latest developments
🔋 1. EV Demand Growth
Strength: 9/10 → 9/10
Global electric vehicle adoption remains the dominant pillar. Tesla faces softer comp in Europe (–40.5% drop in May) wsj.com, but overall trend remains firmly upward. 🌍
🚗 2. Affordable Entry Level Model
Strength: 8.5/10 → 8.5/10
Tesla still on track to launch a < $25K EV in first half of 2025. Any delays or execution issues could pressure sentiment.
⚡ 3. Battery Cost & Margin Improvement
Strength: 8/10 → 8/10
Margins saw slight relief Q1, driven by cost cuts f, but macro headwinds persist.
🤖 4. Autonomy & Robotaxi Rollout
Strength: 7.5/10 → 8.5/10
Robotaxi debuted in Austin in June, sparking a ~10% one-day stock surge. Benchmark raised its target to $475/buy on the rollout—strong tailwind.
🚩 5. Competition
Strength: 7/10 → 6.5/10
Rivals like Xiaomi’s new YU7 are gaining ground. Tesla must maintain differentiation.
📉 6. Trade Policies & Tariffs
Strength: 6.5/10 → 6.5/10
Still relevant due to Tesla’s global footprint, though less front-page than before.
💰 7. Incentives & Subsidies
Strength: 6/10 → 6/10
U.S. IRA tax credit policies remain supportive; evolving eligibility remains a swing factor.
🛢️ 8. Commodity Costs
Strength: 5.5/10 → 5.5/10
Raw-material swings affect margins. Inventory hedges help but not wholly mitigate.
📈 9. Fed & Interest Rates
Strength: 5/10 → 5/10
A higher-rate environment still limits valuation multiples for growth-tier companies.
🎭 10. Musk Profile & Governance
Strength: 4/10 → 5/10
Analysts (e.g., Bradley Tusk) warn of being “massively overvalued” tied to Musk’s persona. Musk’s renewed focus on Tesla vs. other ventures (DOGE, SpaceX) will be watched.
________________________________________
🚀 Refreshed Catalyst Rankings
Rank Driver Score
1 EV demand growth 9
2 Affordable model 8.5
3 Battery costs/margins 8
4 Autonomy/robotaxi execution 8.5
5 Competition 6.5
6 Trade & tariffs 6.5
7 Regulatory incentives 6
8 Commodities 5.5
9 Fed Rates 5
10 Musk reputation/governance 5
________________________________________
📊 Latest Analyst Ratings & Targets
• Benchmark / Mickey Legg: Buy, target $475 (from $350) — cites robotaxi safety-first rollout, automation upside
• Wedbush / Dan Ives: Outperform, target $500 — labels TSLA as an “embodied AI compounder”
• Morgan Stanley / Adam Jonas: Buy, target $410 — bullish on AI/self driving positioning
• Cantor Fitzgerald / Andres Sheppard: Overweight, target $355 — optimism rooted in robotaxi and FSD rollout
• UBS / multiple: Sell, target $215–225 — skeptical on demand and valuations
Consensus snapshot (FactSet):
• Mean price target ≈ $311–$312
• Mean rating between Hold–Buy (~2.7/5)
________________________________________
🗞️ Recent Headlines
• “Tesla completes first fully autonomous Model Y delivery ahead of schedule”
• “Tesla robotaxis launch in Austin” boosting momentum
• “EU Tesla sales slump” May registrations down 40.5%
• “Tesla fires longtime insider as Europe slump deepens”
________________________________________
🔍 Summary Outlook
Tesla shares are navigating a volatile interplay of strong tech promise and unfolding execution risks:
• Overweight view (Legg, Ives): Robotaxi rollout and AI thrust fuel upside. Automation transition seen as transformative.
• Bullish base (Jonas, Sheppard): AI, FSD rollout, affordable model support core thesis.
• Skeptical view (UBS, Tusk): Slumping deliveries in Europe/China, heavy valuation, Musk's external focus seen as emotional dampener.
Upcoming triggers to watch:
1. Q2 delivery and production results (mid July).
2. Robotaxi rollout execution/regulatory clearance.
3. Margin trajectory as costs evolve.
4. FSD reliability and expansion in new markets.
________________________________________
✅ What This Means for You
• Bull case: Robotaxi + AI momentum may drive TSLA back toward targets in the $475–500 range.
• Bear case: Weak deliveries, macro and competition pressures could cap shares or trigger pullback toward prior support ($330–350).
• Neutral: Watch near-term delivery and autonomy news to shape next move.
AAPL: Premium PlayApple beat expectations this quarter—revenue, profit, EPS—all slightly better than analysts hoped. But the stock dropped to $196.26, down from $212.83. Why? Investors are still worried about tariffs, margin pressure, and supply chain changes.
Tim Cook talked about strong product sales (iPhone, Mac, iPad) and all-time high Services revenue. But he also admitted tariffs and regulatory issues are weighing on Apple’s outlook.
My Covered Call Strategy
I’m selling the $202.5 call and buying the $210 call for June 27, 2025. Big money seems to be doing the same—there was a huge premium sale over $2 million, likely betting Apple stays range-bound short term.
- Why this works:
- Resistance near $202.50 gives me a clear ceiling
- Apple fundamentals are strong, but macro risk caps upside
Chart Notes
- Resistance: $202.50 and $210
- Support: Around $192.50
Bottom line:
I like this trade as a way to bring in income while defining my risk. If Apple grinds sideways or pushes a bit higher, the trade still pays. Clean structure, high odds.
TSLA JUNE 20 2025 READ NOTESThis is momentum based price targeting & Tesla can easily do $390 but before that 342 is a solid resistance. From there we can get a dip and then price can continue the up move further
ANY NEWS IS TO BE AVOIDED
Now price action which is way superior is clearly suggesting the same up move.
I fact RSI is saying $400++ can come but it would be super dafe to exit around $390
If you nave any doubts then you can leave a comment.
$COIN 30% Pullback Confirms if we Fakeout Recent 15%+ Rally 🧨 COIN SHORT TRADE IDEA — FAKEOUT TRAP IN PLAY
Ticker: NASDAQ:COIN
Date: June 20, 2025
Thesis: Breakout trap setup — expecting a rug pull / red reversal tomorrow to confirm.
🔍 Context
Price broke above range today with a big +18.8% candle to $295 — but...
Volume spike may signal exhaustion, not strength.
RSI = 68 → near overbought
MACD curling into a bearish cross — same signal preceded the last -30% and -40% drawdowns.
History: Same range-break setups in Dec and Feb collapsed hard (-30 to -40%) over 16–25 days.
💣 Trade Plan (Short Setup)
Entry Trigger:
🔻 Enter short if price closes below $277 tomorrow — confirms breakout trap.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $253 (top of old range)
🎯 Target 2: $235 (mid-range support)
🎯 Target 3: $208 (full breakdown move, matches last 2 cycles)
Stop Loss:
🛑 Above $297 (breakout highs)
Timeframe:
1–3 weeks (16–26 bars historically)
🧠 Bias
Bearish unless bulls hold $280+. If we get a big red daily candle tomorrow, fakeout confirmed — high-probability follow-through expected.
Apple Near Key Support — Long Setup DevelopingIntroduction:
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is approaching a critical support zone that has consistently held over the past two months. As price retraces toward this level, it presents a potential long opportunity for traders looking to position ahead of the next bullish leg.
Technical Setup:
Support Zone: $193 – $196
This area has acted as a strong demand zone, providing multiple bounce points since April.
Price is now pulling back into this region, offering a potential entry for a long trade.
Trade Idea:
Entry: $193 – $196 (on confirmation of support holding)
Take Profit Targets:
First Target: $210 – $215
Second Target: $225 – $233
Stop Loss: Just below $184 (to protect against a breakdown from support)
#AAPL #Apple #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #SupportZone #LongSetup #TradingStrategy #NASDAQ #TechStocks #RiskReward