AAPL
Apple to find support at previous resistance?Apple - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 156.61 (stop at 151.11)
This is curremtly an actively traded stock.
Our bespoke resistance of 157.50 has been clearly broken.
Previous resistance at 156.00 now becomes support.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 170.66 and 172.66
Resistance: 162.50 / 165.00 / 166.84
Support: 159.78 / 156.00 / 154.00
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AAPL last leg of correction - DownAAPL -Elliott Waves Analysis
We are in a double flat complex correction WXY. with Wave (C) of primary Wave Y still to unfold. If this is correct Wave (C) of Y will unfold in an impulse wave down (5 minor waves down)
Fibonacci:
Waves W = Wave y = 122
What do you think?
Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational purposes and does not serve as financial advice.
Apple by EOYApple based on current 119D movement. I still believe Apple is heading below $100 this year. It took a tad longer to see a drop because of corporate buybacks but that wont change the overall outlook for Apple.
Apple's price move from 2018 downward coincides with the Feds tapering. The August 2019 rally also coincides directly with the Fed increasing QE in August 2019. You can see somewhat normal movement until the price breaks out of the channel, although QE was introduced in 2008.
No QE = no more rallying. More QE = hyperinflation. Simple as that. I think the Fed will let equities take a bath to save the dollar... but than again, who knows?
Data Points:
MACD Crossed
RSI has room to come down
Q1 Guidance was grim
Apple Is this market ready to break? This was a significant rebound, almost unimaginably unrealistic... 5-weeks of straight rallying through the tidal waves of bad economic news, rate hikes, QT, geopolitical tensions, ect...
Let's see what holds for August and September, which are two months that aren't great for stocks. If you do short, go to at least the end of September.
RSI and MACD are supporting a sell off. MA puts Apple at $160, and the Lower price of BB is $151. Was this a giant head and shoulder?
First shoulder December 2021, head at March 2022, and now the right shoulder at August 2022? Hmmm
SPY S&P SPX - Selling SoonHere we are in this bounce in the markets. We are seeing lower highs, lower lows. It is the best time to get into a position now. If you look at the timelines from peak to sell, its about 2-months. We're about overbought, and the economic data coming out is pretty horrible. Retail, autos, housing, buying and consumer sentiment, debt, revolving credit, personal debt... all these point to pain in the short term.
Look at the 2/10YR inversion, which is surpassing passed recessions. Even the 3-month is far surpassing the 30YR. Cracks are forming everywhere and we are starting to see defaults and bankruptcies become a reality. Even IF the Fed softens and pivots, it wont make a difference. Statistics are showing that people are barely scraping by. Don't be caught off guard! Look at the data, not the delusional hosts on CNBC which will never admit the truth until we are deep in a crisis.
This sell off or "crash" is a bit different than other ones. With most of the economic data worse off than 2008, the markets are not reflecting the economy whatsoever. The markets should be far lower, but, it seems that intervention of some sort is taking place... for how long, its to be seen. I would have liked to see a drop of 30%, rebound of 10%, 40% in wave 2, rebound of 15% but it seems like like markets are declining far slower than logical economists thought.
Tipple Top or Dead Cat BounceWe're taking a look at Apple here. This ticker has been known as a quality stock that investors flock when other tech stocks take a hit.
MACD is playing right there in the middle and this could go either way. Money Flow Index is showing that there could be more up to go.
Markets have been rocked by the recent banking crisis that is still not over. We're now learning of First Republic continually collapsing, even with backstops and liquidity pledges from big banks. Perhaps this crisis isn't over yet, and with bets of a 25 basis point hike Wednesday, this could snowball into a bigger crisis, but it's one to watch. Central banks are doing all they can to keep this bubble alive, but with declining economies, it's now a matter of time.
Manufacturing, retail, housing, autos, are all down, and continuing downward. Joblessness claims continue upward. Layoffs are increasing. You know how it goes... thoughts?
NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire WorthlessEver since NVDIA went up after its February earnings call, it seems that social media traders have been afflicted with a fetish for trying to short it. There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, they say, such as NVIDIA is trading at blah blah times P/E, AI doesn't actually need chips beyond the initial machine learning phase, and of course the top reason that everything should be bearish: the Federal Reserve isn't pivoting!
None of that matters. One of the biggest pieces of wisdom I can share with you is that fundamentals do not matter in the way that you're led to believe that they matter. If the markets really worked that way, then there would neither be bubbles nor would there be undervalued stocks. If everything algorithmically traded in line with what "it was truly worth" you would have no opportunity at all to make (lose) any money, would feel bored with the computer, and would go outside.
The fundamentals to the market at large right now, including with the recent collapse of regional banks and Silicon Valley Bank, is that everything in this world is revolving around "relationships" that companies, people, organizations, and communities have established with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party. This especially includes what happened during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic and the world's response to the disease.
Too many people have, for the sake of the economic and recreational benefits that the Chinese Government has offered, imported the CCP's cultural revolution stuff back home. And yet, the CCP under the Jiang Zemin faction is guilty of almost 24 years of persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong meditation, which involves the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting as a form of torture (Kilgour-Matas Report).
And the result is a lot of business and social practices have developed under the Party's method that amount to cancers festering in the world's body. If you want to get rid of a cancer, you have to not only cut it out, but get rid of the root cause and the behaviors and habits that give the disease the environment it needs to lump around.
The thing about NVIDIA is that it has a story. Stories matter more than fundamentals in the short term. In the long term, fundamentals matter more than stories. This is because a small group of whales needs a pretext in order to bait in a large number of fish and a moderate amount of sharks to feed on, and this operation is a short to midterm play that revolves around the longer term fundamentals, which cannot be avoided.
NVIDIA's story is that there's a cool Chinese guy with grey hair running the company wearing a leather jacket. He says that he can sell a lot of chips right now and quickly exceed the very worthless crypto mining boom because GPT4 and STABLE DIFFUSION and the AI REVOLUTION need GRAPHICS CARDS more than rich kids need $1,800 graphic cards to be addicted to video games instead of having jobs and girlfriends.
Well, I'm a price action trader. I think the charts show the truth of the markets and their combined understanding and the candles reflect the operation in play. Zoom out, is what they always say:
NVIDIA on the monthly, when it dumped in October, took out a long term low from 2021.
Taking out a low all on its own doesn't mean much, but my friends, when a highcap takes out a big low AND THEN ALSO bounces 74% over the next three months, and instead of heading towards making new lows, goes ahead and makes a new high the next month, why are you shorting something that's going up?
Look at this pattern on the weekly and ask yourself what you really find appealing about buying puts on this besides hearing all the rabble in signal groups and on social media yell about HOW OVERPRICED this stock is and how IT SHOULD GO TO ZERO. IT'S GOING TO ZERO.
And even more so now with NVDIA closing at ~$270, this is the worst time to trade it. You've already missed the boat to go long, and going short has destroyed a lot of accounts.
You're at the apex of an inflection point, and the scenarios on both sides are very simple:
1. If it's bearish, then the MM is short from the early '22 pivot parked under $300, and bears are about to get what they want.
2. But that pivot is right under the $300 psychological level where big short positions now have their stops
3. If NVDIA is truly bullish, it will take out that pivot, sweep $300 and then is likely to retrace
4. But for bears, it doesn't make sense to give them a way out and retrace like that.
5. Thus, the most annoying thing the MM can do is to park price in this $255-275 range for several weeks and kill everyone's put and call premiums while selling the contracts
6. This means no retrace. Instead, when everyone's lost all their money going short, and it doesn't dump and NVDIA does go over $300 in May or June, price doesn't look back and sets a new all time high
7. Bears bamboozled and in disbelief about how a tech stock can set a new ATH during FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES
If you want to make money in trading, you need to put risk management at the top of your priority list.
What's really implied by this is that you stop gambling. The way you stop gambling is by changing your heart and your intentions in trading. You have to stop wanting to get rich. If you try to change your life with gambling then you will, as a result, ruin your life. Literally everyone knows this and yet people still try to make their lives "happy" through gambling.
What you're trying to so is solidly and systematically increase your account on a compounding basis. To do this, you need winning trades and not losing trades. To do this, this means you need less trades, because let's be honest, most of your trades are losers.
In order to achieve all of the above, you need to quit listening to influencers and Discord and Telegram signal groups, delete the Marxist social influencing website Reddit, and start thinking for yourself.
You have to understand that a lot of these people do not trade themselves. They make their money grifting you for subscriptions and from behind the scenes for pushing certain things on their followers. You think from looking at how they talk and how they act and what they say that they're making a lot of money and are very successful, but almost all of them are either total frauds or losing traders.
Stop looking up to "heroes." There are no heroes. There's just you and your life, and you're in a very harsh and adversarial environment where the moral standard is very low and the people around you have very, very poor values. You need to make sure that your moral standard is high and that you have values and ideals that you can stand in front of your grandchildren with and hold your head high.
Also, genuine winning traders are both few and far between, and generally do not carry a high profile. People who have survived in the markets for a while also understand both how easy it is and how painful it is to lose money. They understand how hard money is to get it back once it's been lost. And thus, they aren't out there cowboying around.
You shouldn't listen to what I tell you either, because you need to think for yourself.
If you don't get sober and rational now, then when this world really changes as the Chinese Communist Party falls, a day which is extremely, extremely close, you won't have a chance to make it through the tribulation, because the requirement to pass through is that you have clean hands, a clean heart, and have chosen a bright future for yourself.
AAPL UpdateWas thinking about buying AAPL calls on the dip for the CPI pump, but it's looked weak since going overbought on the daily. Chart pattern is similar to last April with earnings coming up end of the month.
Opted to stay cash. Remember, AAPL is the market. Not sure ES1! gets the gap fill without an AAPL rally.
AAPL: No longer the apple of the eyes of the investors EPS: $1.88 vs. $1.94 estimated, down 10.9% year over year
Revenue: $117.15 billion vs. $121.10 billion estimated, down 5.49% year over year
iPhone revenue: $65.78 billion vs. $68.29 billion estimated, down 8.17% year over year
Mac revenue: $7.74 billion vs. $9.63 billion estimated, down 28.66% year over year
iPad revenue: $9.4 billion vs. $7.76 billion estimated, up 29.66% year over year
Other Products revenue: $13.48 billion vs. $15.23 billion estimated, down 8.3% year over year
Services revenue: $20.77 billion vs. $20.67 billion estimated, up 6.4% year over year
Gross margin: 42.96% vs. 42.95% estimated
DIS is it?!Disney looking to break out of its daily bull flag. The $100 resistance has been rejected for the previous 5 days. If today DIS can close above $100 I believe we can see a move back to $107. I have opened some DIS 4/23 104 Calls as well as longing DIS on gains network (polygon). My stop loss will be roughly 97.5 with PT of 107 with scale out's along the way.
Don't Buy AAPL in Short TermAs we can see in the above weekly charter, Apple(AAPL) is doing a correction in wave (C) in black to complete the wave II in red. The wave (C) will be done in wave 5 in blue.
- ALERT: We expect Smart Buyers will appear around $140~142
- Apple(AAPL) has a strong correlation with NASDAQ and this also shows the similar structure. We need to continue following this correlation.
4/10 Watchlist + Notes Initial Thoughts - Solid week last week, questionably bullish this coming week, lots of finance/bank stocks report ER this week, CPI this week.
SPY - On Wednesday I mentioned on my watchlist that I was cautiously bearish for a few reasons. Turned out my suspicions were valid because we pushed lower early on in the day Thursday before pumping the rest of the day to create a bullish engulfing daily candle. I was really hoping this wouldn't happen, but we play the cards that we are dealt. Going into next week, and specifically monday, I am looking for a move to the upside. I am still hoping we overall head lower on the week, but it seems like we could be due for a retest of that 412 level we touched on last week. I have upside targets loosely set at the 410 and 412 areas. I am still remaining cautious as we are still at a critical level on the longer time frames, CPI data comes out this week, and there are some heavy ER reports coming from the financial sector, which could all make this coming week very volatile. OVERALL BIAS: Skeptically Bullish. I think we test 410 for sure either in premarket or RTH. Once again, I am basing my bias on what is in front of us, and what makes the most sense for the next session. Expecting this week to be very volatile
Watchlist + Bias:
AAPL - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
PFE - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
BIDU - 2-1 Daily: Bearish
PEP - 2-1 Daily: Bullish
BABA - 2-1 Weekly: Bullish
CRM - 2-1 Weekly: Neutral (Sitting at FVG on weekly)
SQ - 3-1-1 Weekly: Bullish
Main Watch:
SQ - Was watching this one last Thursday and we didn't go anywhere. I have high hopes that we will break out to the upside this week. Entry around 70, stop below 66. Targets around the 80 and 83 area. Simple as that. More to be said about this one come end of day monday, but for now, we are going into monday off of a bullish engulfing candle on the daily.
Previous main watch:
SQ - not a winner or loser. Explanation above
Stats from last weeks watchlists:
4/4 on SPY predictions
3/4 on Main Watch Plays. (technically 4/5 but im not counting thursday)
Top winner: DOCU (400%+)
Personal Stats:
4/5 Win/Loss (80% Winrate)
Overall green week
Slow start but finished well
Good luck tomorrow. Watch SPY and VIX at all times throughout the week
APPLE Falling Resistance Reached! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
APPLE was trading in an
Uptrend but then the stock
Hit the falling resistance line
And we are seeing a bearish
Pullback already so a move down
Is to be expected
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and $QQQ Analysis - Weekly Future Outlook -- AAPL downtrend resistance key level 166.84 zone
- GOOGL closed right at resistance 108.63 zone
- AMZN close at resistance 102.12 zone
- QQQ closed right at resistance zone 317.89 -318.23
- Earnings coming up soon for XLF financial sector
- Sold my SOXS today and took profit this morning back to all cash
AAPL LongApple showing weakness with a classic bearish divergence. Apple still has a golden cross coupled with an inverse head and shoulders, so I expect this to be a quick pull back before continuing higher. Entry point will be around the $155 zone. Depending on when it reaches the zone I'll be purchasing either May or June $170 call contract.
Apple -> Short Term ReversalHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Apple stock is currently retesting a quite obvious previous weekly downtrend resistance line exactly at the $165 area.
Also just recently Apple stock created a weekly inverted head and shoulders so I definitely do expect the market to reject this downtrendline to retest the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders at the $155 area and then from there create more continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that market structure is still massively bullish so I am now just waiting for Apple to show me some more bearish rejection at the current levels and then there is a high chance that we will see a short term rejection away from the downtrend resistance trendline.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
AAPL insider trading and net cash flow from positive to -70Mil AAPL with all of it's great achievments has what seems started to run out of steam.... With insider trading recently and net cash flow going from a surplus in 2019 to trending negative since and at -$70 mil currently.... I see signs of weakness. Looking at the chat there are clear signs of manipulation and gapping up over solid resistance areas to get to where it is today. This recent pull back for re-accumulation looks like a failed re-accumulation mid run. This is apple so I am not sure how much of a fight this will put up. However, I feel confident this will drop to at least close the gaps. 8 Days should be enough for the $161 traget. 36days should be safe for a Price target of $152. Which seems ambitious when looking at it from the top but its been on a straight 45 degree angle since Mid March. However, this is the same stock that took from Jan 2021 to Mar 2023 to finally make support out of the $140s. If this pulled back to $152 it would be completly conservative compared to those 2 years.
This $152 area is the last place there was synergy between volume and price. Which means this is the last place buyers and sellers saw eye to eye for a period longer than a few hours.
If you like or are intrigued by this analysis pls like and follow and of course hit the BOOST button as thats how more people will be able to see this.
This isn't financial advice and I wouldn't suggest blindly following my trades, if you see the price going against save your profits and or money and look for another entry.
by iCantw84it
04.06.23