AAPL
What's going on $VIX?What in the world is going with TVC:VIX ?
Was short term bearish, was right (not posted here, sorry, see our profile)
However, we made case for longer term scenario
NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL & others have PE 30+, crazy
BUT #StockMarket = IRRATIONAL
SP:SPX really looks like top retest is in play
May is 4th best month over last 20 years
Aprils IS the best month coming in @ 2.5%, & looking to close there again. Over 80% win in last 20 years!
#stocks
AAPL - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]- AAPL has given a positive signal from the inverse head and shoulders formation by a break up through the resistance at 157.
- The stock has support at 151 and resistance at 175.
- Positive volume balance shows that volume is higher on days with rising prices than days with falling prices.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Tesla - $250 Is Coming... Don't Lose Your Legs In the Bear Trap As I said in my previous call on Tesla, which was rather successful, I'm not a big fan of Elon Musk.
Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still Bearish
Especially as the post-Twitter acquisition has unfolded, I feel Musk rode the wave he could to do his "Twitter Files" thing and clawback some rightists/Conservatives that were alienated under the former Mastodon socialist leadership.
But the Twitter Files weren't really news to anyone who actually has been following COVID lockdown narrative or January 6 Capitol Riot censorship. And now Twitter is kind of the same as it's always been, but more shadowbanny, and will increasingly become more and more central to the coming globalist Central Bank Digital Currency/social credit system.
Musk, a transhumanist, has alluded to transforming Twitter into an "everything app" himself, all while lauding the communist regime in China's WeChat as if it were some kind of good thing.
CBDCs and social credit are, ultimately, the world outside of the Chinese Communist Party attempting to emulate and import the CCP's operational methodology and ways. This is a disaster for mankind, and should be opposed and challenged by everyone who wants a future.
A Warning on Red China
As always, my usual warning, especially for a company like Tesla that has a Gigafactory in Shanghai: you have to be very careful in bullish market conditions with the pandemic situation in China. Western media simply isn't reporting anything and the CCP keeps a very strict censorship regimen with a high degree of secrecy, so you'll be in the dark until it's too late to cry about your gap losses.
Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party claims to have only suffered ~85,000 deaths since Wuhan Pneumonia began. That's 59 deaths per million people, and is literally a laughable claim that the epicenter of the pandemic and the world's (formerly) most populous country has suffered a factor of 10 or 60 times less magnitude of fatalities than the west that the regime exported the disease to.
In reality, this is obviously impossible. Moreover, the CCP covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic. A lot, a lot of people died during that pandemic, but the regime just told the world that everything was great.
Only a total fool believes anything that the CCP says.
The problem for a company like Tesla is a huge sum of both its supply and demand is tightly wed to China, and a pandemic situation that Xi can't keep under control and a weak Communist Party means the risk of black swan events hitting in the middle of the night when the US markets are closed is _extremely_ significant.
The Call
Now for price action, markets, especially NASDAQ and tech, all mooned in the wake and run up to FOMC. But this also came in the first two days of February, and we have a Jerome Powell speech on Feb. 7 and jobless claims on the 9th.
It's reasonable (and important) to anticipate that the low set at 10:30 AM on Feb.1 @ $169.95 is not going to be the low of the month.
It's also important to notice that the mania candle swept out the December high by 8 cents and was followed by a ~4% retrace, significant because it set up a double top pattern on the daily candles.
In my opinion, there's a very high chance that Tesla will dump rather aggressively to liquidate leveraged longs, raid long stops, and make weekly call options expire worthless, a move that will simultaneously serve as a bear trap.
$162 to $133 is a rather wide range, but it represents a combination of a weekly price displacement and a microgap. In combination with range equilibrium being $150, and $150 being a psychological operation number, a sweep all the way down to $145~ is something I anticipate.
Now, all that being said, what I would like to say is that Tesla has been so crazily bullish (almost doubling in under 30 trading sessions; this was still a $300 billion market cap company!), that range equilibrium may not be touched, and those gaps underneath it may be breakaway gaps.
So that being said, you have a hard choice if you want to go long on a dump. Because if you see $160, you really might not get better than $160 and Tesla doesn't like to stay low for long if it's going up. But if you buy $160 it can drop another 10 or maybe 15 percent, which means your calls turn (or expire if you're degen weekly) worthless.
This is a real game theory problem as the MMs, who know the schedule, use time as their greatest weapon. So perhaps a reasonable strategy is to go for the TSLL leveraged long ETF at $160 and just baghold/add if it drops more.
Bears talking about the gaps at $85 and lower, it's not that they're wrong... It's that Tesla already fell from $330~ to $100 in the course of a few months, and this was one of the world's largest companies by market cap. You really cannot afford to be so greedy to bottom short and bottom short and bottom short. You were already so lucky that you could bottom short and not get your head split for so long.
It's really very rare in equities to be able to do that.
The bounce has been so extreme that the market makers have thus made it clear that both two digit Tesla is not coming right now, and also that when you do see two digit Tesla, you can't buy it.
TL;DR, Tesla $250 is the next stop. If you get so lucky as to buy $150, I think that's pretty good, and you should even hold a portion of your position through $250.
AAPL in a fractal?NASDAQ:AAPL could be in a fractal pattern here. The previous two moves down saw a deep retrace to 0.886 before reversing lower. Both moves broke through the established trend lines as fake outs before reversing back to the downside. This current move up looks very similar in structure to those prior two. However, that still leaves about HKEX:7 -8 of upside before that target is reached. Just speculation at this point, will have to wait and see what happens at ER.
4/26 Watchlist + NotesSPY - Was bullish going into today due to 2-2 daily reversal. Obviously that prediction didnt go well, but we did trigger the 2-2 reversal on the weekly which was one of my goals for us for this week so I am pleased with that. We had an insanely bearish day today as well as a bearish close so I expect some more downside tomorrow at least in premarket or shortly after open. We are incredibly close to our weekly reversal target by the textbook 2-2 reversal standards, but I have a feeling this week could be the start of a shift in market trend to the downside. Going into tomorrow I am looking for either lower lows on the daily or an inside day to be created. I think we can almost expect a failed 2D tomorrow unless selling pressure continues, then we may have a repeat sell off day.
Watchlist:
KO - 3-1
W - 3-1
TSLA - 2-1
VZ - 50% rule
Main Watch:
W - Best setup out of the 4 on the list. 3-1 Could play out super well if we break to the upside, but downside has equal potential. Willing to play either.
Yesterday's Main Watch:
AA - Opened outside of broadening formation to the downside to create volatility expansion No entry to either side due to the gap so this one is an L
Watchlist Stats:
0/2 SPY predictions
0/2 Main Watch Plays
Personal Stats:
0/2 On the week
- NFE Swing opened red and I closed it before more red came. Entered super early on this and paid the price for it even though it was 10% of my full position it was still a loss
- Getting beat up with the swings this week
- Overall not too red as they have both been small losses. Looking to rebound with SPY the next couple days as we create tons of opportunities with this weekly reversal signal
Don't let red days and/or streaks keep you down. Analyze, study, learn, and move forward. Thats what I am doing this week in response to my red days this week. Best of luck tomorrow, lets turn things around
4/24 Watchlist + Notes SPY - I was neutral going into today. We started off the day by heading lower but not being able to break Friday lows before reversing and breaking Friday highs. This triggers a 2-2 reversal on the daily and now tells us we can potentially target last week highs. Overall going into tomorrow I am bullish and expect to break today's high either in PM or RTH. I would still like to see us break weekly lows, but we still have not seen any weekly reversal signal, so with the daily chart and weekly chart in their current state, I have to be bullish.
Watchlist:
UNH - 3-1
PG - 2-1
AA - 2-1
Main Watch:
AA - At the bottom of a broadening formation on the daily. Gorgeous setup. Ideally we break today's high and fill/test the FVG level at 39.62
UNH looks solid as well, but AA is a better setup because of the R/R
Previous Main Watch:
ETSY - Broke to the upside and saw minimal gains. Weekly still has not broken out so watching to see if we continue to the upside tomorrow.
Watchlist Stats
0/1 SPY predictions
1/1 Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: ETSY (+?)
Personal Stats:
0/1 On the Week
Overall Red
- 1/2 On swings since I started playing them more last week
- Lost on ARKK. Got stopped out after we formed a 2-2 reversal on the daily. ARKK shortly after my exit dropped hard and ran to 40% gains from my entry Friday, creating an engulfing daily
- Swinging NFE HKEX:35 Calls overnight. Seeing tons of potential with this one. Tomorrow NEEDS to be bullish though. I got in extra early on this one but with only 10% of my entire position
AAPL profit taking into earnings?Keeping an eye on this, could be flagging out to the EMAS for a move higher but earnings are coming out on May 4th. I'm watching for a crack of this trendline for profit taking and bulls taking off risk into earnings. Looking for a move similar to what we saw in MSFT today closing below the daily EMAs and basing around the pivot spot. First target is the 21EMA on the daily currently at 163, second target level down to 160 and 157.40 big pivot spot.
$QQQ Watch for a Key BreakNASDAQ:QQQ eyes on tech earnings (MSFT, META) this week. PA distributing like SPY between critical levels, but currently looking bearish after failing to break out of pennant. Both need to break respective pivot points for continued downside pressure to bottom TL.
Positioning: LT Short
Market Outlook Analysis | Earnings Prediction | Support & Resist- QQQ Megaphone still in place
- NASDAQ:QQQ SKILLING:NASDAQ trading within 3 weeks range 320-312 area, likely breaking Tuesday
- Tuesday NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOGL Earnings prediction
- NASDAQ:AAPL broke out without much follow through, historically AAPL dips into earnings or after earnings if it moves up alot into it.
- advertising companies dont do well during recessions.
- AMEX:SPY still healthy daily uptrend that may change next week
- still holding my AMEX:SOXS ( NASDAQ:SOXX short )
2023 Crisis In my own eyes
THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE
Publishing here the history of economics effect on stock market
I took the last couple of crisis (bubble at 2000 and the real estate crisis on 2008) and added the bellow charts
- Inflation
- Interest
- Unemployment
Once thing is clear- each time inflation went up- The fed increased the intersect rate and unemployment went down to the lowest points of the decade or more
- When unemployment reached the bottom, we were getting towards the top of the market (on 2008) or in the middle of the fall down (2001)
- UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NEVER REACHED THE BOTTOM WHEN THE CRISIS WAS OVER OR DURRNING THE UPTREND ON THE ABOVE CRISIS
-When Inflation rates got to the pick level - the market was either still climing or in the begining of the fall
- INFLATION RATES NEVER PICKED OR STAYED HIGH FOR A LONG TIME WHILE THE MARKET BOTTOMED
- THE PRIOD OF AT LEAAST 7 MONTHS WE HAD THE HIGH INTRESET RATE AT THEIR PICK
- AND IT HAPPENED WHILE THE MARKETS WERE CRASHING
THE SIGANL FOR THE BOTTOM USUALLY CAME WHEN THE INFALTION CAME TO IT'S LOWEST POINT
- DRAMATIC MOVES OF THE INFLATION GOING DOWN - WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CRASH AND TOWARDS THE END WHEN WE HIT THE BOTTOM
- Were are we now 4-2023???
In My Opinion:
- We are in the beginning of the big crash, we are going to sink hard to new low level, we will visit the highest levels of the market before the CORONA (February 2020)
- I really think we will have a hard recession which will take 5-7 years or more to get back to the tops of the ETFs (QQQ/ SPY etc...)
We are being fouled at the moment the the bottom already happened, as nothing is shiny in the near/ far furture
- AAPL IS ONLY 9% FROM IT'S ATH (MAKE SENCE??) not to me
- VIX IN ITS LOWEST FOR THE PAST 1+ YEAR (USUALLY THE MARKET WILL PUT ALL TO SLEEP BEFORE THEY DROP THE KNIFES)
- LAYOFF SEASON HAS BEGAN AT THE BIG COMANIES
- FED DECLEARED A SOFT RECESSION (WHEN THEY SAY SOFT IT'S THE SAME AS WHEN THEY SAID TRANSITORY INFLATION - PLEASE REMEMBER !!!
- INTRESET RATE?? NEXT 0.25 IS COMING IN 2 WEEKS
- WHAT IS THE CATALIST FOR THE MARKET TO GO HIGH??
NOTHING (In My Opinion)
THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE
4/21 Watchlist + Notes SPY - As mentioned on my list yesterday, I was cautiously bullish going into today due to the fact that we had a 2-2 reversal on the daily. We were not able to break highs of yesterday (Which I credit to bad ER from before the bell on big names like TSLA) and ended up opening lower on the day but fighting our way back up to fill premarket gaps before dropping back down again. Ended the day red with a failed 2D again for the 3rd failed 2 day in a row. Not really sure what to make of this as we head into Friday. We have a failed 2D which tells us we have a potential 2-2 reversal on the daily incoming if we break today's highs. We also could be targeting a 50% retrace of the previous weekly candle as we are currently in a failed 2U on the weekly. I think both upside and downside have potential for tomorrow for numerous reasons so with that all being said, I am neutral going into Friday's session. If I was truly forced to make a prediction on whether we go up or down tomorrow, I would say we have better odds of pushing to the downside. It is still nearly 50/50 in my opinion but for those of you who have experienced multiple friday sessions before, you know that anything can happen. Im open to playing both sides but I think downside does have more potential range if that is the direction we head tomorrow.
Challenge Account + Watchlist:
Value: 46.98 (No Change Today)
AAPL - 3-1 Daily (At top of potential BF so if we break to the downside that would be ideal)
UAL - 2-1 Daily
U - Broadening Formation
Main Watch:
AAPL - Really loving the potential on this play. 3-1s are always fun to play, but looking bigger than just the daily, we have a solid potential BF formed on the weekly. Looking to break to the downside tomorrow to maybe begin a downswing to the bottom of the BF.
Previous Main Watch:
CCL - Loser - broke lower on the daily and hit downside target. Wanted upside
Watchlist Stats:
3/4 SPY Predictions
1/5 Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: TSLA 15%
Personal Stats"
3/4 On the week
Overall: Heavy Green
- Swung T puts into today that ran over 600%
- Swinging ARKK puts for tomorrow and next week potentially
- Been doing 1 play a day and it has been working well
Finish the week strong everyone. Best of luck trading tomorrow!
apple will go to upper than $180aapl will go to upper than $ 180
hello guys...
apple had made a head and shoulder pattern
the target of this pattern in this situation is $ 180
in my opinion the purpose of this move in gathering a lot of liquidity
the range of this liquidity located in $ 175- $ 185
_______________________________
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If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
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Everything you NEED to KNOW | $QQQ & Big Tech | KEY RESISTANCE |- Resistance levels for NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TSLA
- double megaphone pattern on NASDAQ:QQQ likely breaking smaller one tomorrow
- most big techs are trading under resistance expect AAPL if no one follows AAPL its likely coming back down.
- i am more bearish here due to this kind of indecision whip saw sometimes marks a temporary top.
- Detailed Trade analysis of my NASDAQ:SOXX short (in AMEX:SOXS )
AAPL Q2 Update: Potential Swing Trade IdeaNot my best path drawings but I do think that anything above $170 seems like a great shorting opportunity, the lows at FWB:124 would be my target. I'd like to see if come to $170 and sweep supply or come to the highs at HKEX:176 and sweep that area. If we sweep HKEX:176 , I think it will be the best potential entry if this does prove to be bearish. **NFA