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SPX500 / ES / SPY - Enjoy the Party While It LastsThe period of market activity following the November CPI pump has been both a choppy grind and hard to get a handle on. I had personally believed that the market makers would run 3,700 long ago, but that we wouldn't set new lows. Turns out, after much deliberation, they ran 4,150 instead and dumped it back to 3,800 but still haven't taken 3,700. When trading, anyone who genuinely "knows" what is going to happen also isn't allowed to speak to the public. There are contracts binding their mouths with big penalties for violation. Ergo, literally all of us who are trying to do this are making a best-basis effort to anticipate what's going on and what's going to happen with limited information available. What this means is that to increase your accuracy and avoid blowing yourself up, you have to continually revaluate what you think is going to happen on the basis of what is actually happening in front of you. This is an important ability to build, but there's a lot of inner obstacles. You can only do it via determined and diligent mental and emotional self cultivation and improvement. All on its own the last 45 days of price action tells us something. The December FOMC rendezvous with the September CPI dump formed a double top where big, big fund positions selling short will be carrying market buy orders to exit their positions as part of their risk model because "resistance was broken." In terms of the market retracing and coming back to take out that level, this doesn't always work out, as seen on both Tesla at $315 and WTI Crude at $93. But, when combined with this three week period of "bear flagging" (it's just consolidation) and, as we saw on Friday with an unwillingness to trade lower even on Non-Farm Payroll day, arguably the third most volatile news driver of the month behind CPI and FOMC, it tells us more. Looking at daily candles, The fact that the market makers appear to want to trade higher without trading just a little bit lower to take the giant fund sell stops at 3,700 indicates to me that the biggest cowboys are actually long and the intention is to keep selling. Now, you're probably used to thinking, "Doesn't the price go down when big money is selling? Doesn't it go up when they're buying?" The answer to that is yes, but no. Think about it: if the banks were to sell low and buy high and then buy high and sell low, like you do, wouldn't there be a 2008 financial crisis all the time? Wouldn't they also blow their accounts like you do? Instead, although it takes a lot of money to buy and sell the orders planted along the way, the reality is that big funds and banks are selling on green and buying on red. Selling on green and buying on red. I've heard if you work at a trading desk and you buy on green and sell on red you'll quickly find yourself holding a filing box on the sidewalk waiting for the Uber to take you back to your apartment. This is really worth thinking about. Looking at monthly bars, last January was a 600 point nuclear month. The algorithms, although they do perform fractals on a consistent basis, generally, do not like to repeat themselves in such an obvious way. Ergo, expecting January '23 to be a big nuclear month may be a bit of an error in judgment. I think everyone now understands that the global economy is in big trouble, the living environment is in trouble, and on top of that the central banks aren't in the mood to run a bailout or a rate cut to save markets from crashing. And yet, they don't crash. That's because it's the same idea as the blade of a guillotine. Before you drop the hammer and decapitate your victim, you first slowly pull the rope so the knife is hanging high over head. "The bigger they are, the harder they fall." I believe that what we're about to see happen is SPX 4,230. There's a gap conveniently placed right above the double top from before September CPI. Both this and the late December pivot @ 3,79x are both very obvious on weekly candles. Once we get there and everyone has turned bullish again and forgotten where they are in the diagram, then it's time to start looking seriously at getting risk off and buying puts. Once the calamity really starts to unfold, you aren't going to see consolidation like this and we're not likely to get big bounces along the way. The kind of 200 points down one day 200 points up the next saw during COVID hysteria also isn't likely to unfold. It's just a question of what the catalyst will be. And that catalyst may very well come in the form of "China." I say "China" because although it may unfold in the nation of China, the issue is the Chinese Communist Party. You really have to separate that rogue regime from "the Chinese people" and "the Chinese nation." China is being absolutely sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia. The pandemic situation there is not like the COVID pseudo-pandemic we saw in North America. And this situation has been true for the better part of 3 years. Although the CCP covers it up and hides the data, just like they did during 2003 SARS, nobody seems to have learned their lesson that the regime is a chronic liar. Or at least, when it comes to the topic they exercise "Three Monkeys." One day that isn't all that far away, Xi Jinping and the Party will really be unable to contain reality any longer. In the same way that a forest fire that's absolutely out of control and absolutely raging will eventually roll towards the city (See 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire) and start smashing up industry, people, lives, and the regime for real. The warnings signs of this will be kept quiet by western media until it can't be hidden any longer. So you likely won't get much notice besides that prices stay high while volume drops and the USD and VIX start going on a "weird" moon mission. When it starts, you'll be greeted by unprecedented Monday morning breakaway gap downs that never recover. Ultimately, what I want to say to everyone who reads this is that the tribulation won't be limited to China's borders and will quickly become international. It will be the kind of thing that global governments cannot keep a handle on, either, and the problem will concern more than your stock portfolio. To evade and escape the disaster, it's absolutely critical that you do your part to oppose, reject, and stop supporting the Chinese Communist Party and all the Marxist-Leninist, socialist things it has spread around the world during the last 23 years via the United Front Work Department. It's a choice you both have to make, and one you'll be forced to honour by history.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
3
Apple’s bulls to show their strength before earningsShares in Apple Inc. (symbol ‘AAPL’) gained back in full the losses incurred in the last quarter of the year. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending December 2022 is set to be released on Thursday 2nd of February, after market close. The consensus EPS for Q4 is $1,93 compared to Q4 2021’s $2,10. ‘2022 was a hard year for the company since it lost more than 30% of its share value. The recent pump in the price might have put a smile on management’s face but they are not out of the woods just yet. The current ratio of the company (showing the ability to repay their short term liabilities) is at 0.88 where a good current ratio is above 1. This means the company is still short on assets (mostly cash flow) as of their last publication.’ said Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness ‘The payout ratio (percentage of the total earnings of the company paid out as dividends) is at 14,73% indicating that the company is looking forward to keeping most of their earnings for economic growth/strength which is a good sign for the overall performance of the company.’ On the technical side the price managed to break above the daily bearish trendline only to find resistance on the upper band of the Bollinger bands and the 100 day moving average. If the price manages to stay above its trendline in the following sessions with valid closures above the $145 price area of the 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement level and the 100 day moving average it is possible to see a continuation to the upside with resistance levels around the $150 which is the psychological resistance of the round number and also the 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Exness_Official
$QQQ: Quarterly trend expiring...The quarterly timeframe chart had a trend signal that formed when the market broke out of the range that formed before and after the pandemic shock and subsequent lock public health, fiscal and monetary policies impacted equities. The stimulus driven bonanza ended and the market topped as the world knew the Fed would embark in quantitative tightening to normalize policy. Very curiously even perma bears and perma wrong value investors waiting for a dip got bullish, marking interesting contrarian signals for a top in late Nov 2021. Now that the tides have turned, former winners have become the worst performers and riskiest assets to own long term due to the change in fundamental variables and the huge bubble that formed and is popping right now. The weekly $QQQ chart could flash a big weekly down trend during next week, for that reason I bot a put spread expiring on June 17 to reduce my portfolio's risk and profit, being this bear put spread OTM one of my main bearish plays I got going right now. If price stays below the weekly mode area for the whole week, the signal will confirm and we will see the Nasdaq names slide down dramatically until mid June easily. Longer term, this chart pattern points to a decline lasting well into 2024, and suggesting painful downside can happen in this ETF and associated names. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by IvanLabrie
5
$AAPL: Bubble popped...I think $AAPL offers a great long term short opportunity here, I specially like the idea of being long $BRK.B and short $AAPL to nullify the exposure Berkshire contains as well...Valuation could come down substantially with the on-shoring theme materializing over time as China manufacturing fueled margins would suffer. We have seen demand slumping lately, with sales slowing down, and technicals offer a great short signal in the daily, after getting overbought, while the monthly chart implies price can fall until August, and reach at least the levels where the last monthly trend started @ 128.72. Definitely a good addition to a long term portfolio, to help reduce volatility in this long term bear market we are navigating now, like it or not. Vast majority of the people remain oblivious to it, and definitely not correctly positioned to profit from the changing market conditions that we observe. We might see a similar situation as the period between 2000 and 2003 unfold next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by IvanLabrie
2
🍏 Apple Inc. Resistance, New Products, New Update, Old One BustSo Apple released new computers... Great. They also released a new update for the operating system... Yey! Right after the update, my computer has become useless and I am feeling inspired to buy a new one... Tricky. All updates always work great but this time, the urgent "security update" somehow makes the computer ultra buggy and slow... 🍻😌😉 Anyway, the downtrend has been broken but strong resistance lies ahead in the form of EMA300 and MA200. Looking at past history, these levels always fail as resistance but a peak is reached soon after... Will it be different this time? How is this stock likely to behave in the near future? Ahhh, tough questions. Initially, I would immediately say that a peak is soon to follow and then lower prices but then I am aware that the entire financial market moves as a whole. I am aware of the global-financial situation from multiple perspective and have a well defined picture as to how everything is supposed to move. The problem is that my entire study and research is mainly based on cryptocurrency... The chart signals are saying higher so we say higher until the charts change. There is no point in speculating, we would never buy here, we would only buy early January and at this point we would be just watching how things develop... It is too risky to jump in after the move is already on going but... Trading is trading and there is always risks involved. So, the first support/stop-loss comes at 143. Above this level strongly bullish short-term. Any trading above EMA10 also quite bullish and that's 140. If it goes below EMA10 it would also go below the August downtrend line and so the bullish bias short-term would be lost. Still, on a wider perspective, the bulls remain alive as long as the early January low holds. My guess is that it can continue higher, retraces in-between is just noise, after a new multi-month high a strong correction, this correction ends in a higher low and then it goes back up again at which point we have to look at the chart again. Here we are looking at 4-6 months in the analysis above. I don't know how this information reads... Easy, convoluted, messy, I don't know... But if I had similar information when... Never mind. Thanks a lot for taking the time to read and for your continued support. Namaste.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by AlanSantana
1
SPX - pre market commentary plus gold, usoil, dxy, bonds, applAll in the video, basically I'm waiting for ES to break 3950 area convincingly and then retest it for a short. My guess right now is - not much will happen before FOMC and AAPL earnings, but who knows for sure. USOIl may make one more high to 84, it would be a good shorting opportunity. Gold looks strong and the dollar is still weak. Bonds also close to resistance but could get up to 133-4 first. AAPL has resistance above so a gap up and then fail after earning would be interesting to a bear like me :) Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by the_sunship
4
Week of 1/30: AAPL Supply and Demand LevelsFor those trading AAPL this week, earnings are this Thursday. I have supply at $146.60-$147.25, if we break above this zone I will look for a retest of this level to go long. I'm looking for $143.30-$144 to serve as our demand zone. Otherwise, there is a gap to fill to $141.87 on the 5m chart (not shown). Left Chart Indicators: 15 minute - 9 SMA: Yellow - 200 SMA: Red - VWAP: Blue Right Chart Indicators: 1 hour - 9 SMA: Yellow - 50 SMA: Green - VWAP: Blue
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Macks_MoneyTree
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is ComingEverywhere I look I hear the narrative that we should be making new lows and everyone should be dumping because the Federal Reserve won't pivot and because the inflation keeps going up. Yet, at the same time that they make that argument, they completely ignore what the Dow Jones did in October, which was no less than a 4,300 point rally forming an outside bar. Dow has always been the weakest index. It fell farther during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria. It rallied less during the greatest bull market of all time. It dumped more during this year's corrections. Yet, the Nasdaq and the SPX have lagged it, and lagged it hard, during last month's 2022 Low of the Year recovery. This should have any bull's interest piqued, and yet, because prices are low, they're not. People just want to get short. Everyone is telling you to look below October's low. Sometimes I think to myself that people actually like buying high and selling low, if only because they're just very attached to "seeing" and "confirmation." Ordinary people all follow this idea that "I won't believe what I don't see" and are completely unwilling to exercise even a modicum faith. It's fundamentally irrational. Yet, if you never change this deficiency, you will never be able to leave the bottom of the Cosmos and the bottom of life. The whales will always eat you, for you will always be plankton. As with all fractals, take a step back and look at the wider horizon. Nasdaq would have to fall another 10% from its October LOY to bounce off the pre-COVID highs, something which that pesky Dow already did in June. Not only that, but Nasdaq left two really significant areas of low volume on its way down this year. One of those areas just happens to be right above the August bear market rally highs. Taking a look at the weekly, we can see that for six straight weeks, Nasdaq trades under equilibrium for the total COVID-panic <--> all time high range. When people who are trading billion dollar position sizes take a look at this phenomenon, they're looking to get long, but hedging short. Unlike retail, who wants to buy puts thinking that 6,000 will come on CPI Thursday. On the daily, we can see that there's a lot of manipulation around this trendline superstition. "Meh June low trendline support has become resistance. This is going down!" is what every retail trader has been Pavlov's Dogged into believing and thinking. Nasdaq tends to be the most wild of the indexes. If Nasdaq had have traded like the Dow just did, it would have traded to 13,000 points. Assuming that SPX and Nasdaq follow in the footsteps of Dow in this bear market rally, and don't kid yourself, Friday's price action should indicate to you that we're going higher, not heading for new lows, Nasdaq is likely to be more insane than the Dow, and very likely to take out the August bear market high. While all and all I believe you're looking at a pending 30% rally, from where we stand now, you have 1,000 points to gain being long just to take out the October equal highs. This is enough to formulate trades with and make some good money on without having to take on a lot of risk. Specifically, some of the key (and not-so key) tech stocks are set up to go totally rocketship. At least in my opinion: AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom & META Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull & BBIG Vimco Ventures - A Classic Triangle Pump Trade carefully. When the Chinese Communist Party falls, it will happen while the US equities market is closed. Indexes will gap down 20% and stocks will gap down 50%. There won't be a recovery because every single bank will be completely risk off. Almost all of Wall Street has dirty hands providing financial "blood transfusions" to the most evil and murderous regime in all of human history, one which despite having killed many times more people than Hitler, and having perpetrated the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong practitioners, has not only remained in power for more than 100 years, but it and its Marxist-Leninism is supported by virtually every government and its people in the whole world. A lot of people, institutions, governments, and companies will run for their lives the day that Xi Jinping throws the Party away like Gorbachev threw the USSR away, because the nature of having a closet full of skeletons is that once sunlight is cast upon those unprecedented sins, the game ends in Checkmate. "What an ordinary person believes can happen and what is actually happening are always two totally different things." -Lord Wrymouth
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by LordWrymouth
9